ES looking to buy AHs retracement to 3900Very important close above 3886SPX, should push higher tomorrow imo.
Im planning on buying ES longs for a trip to 3935 or so at min
Looking for a high before FOMC and low by the 29th
Es_f
ES must hold todays lows or at least 3900 levelYou can see how close it is for a breakdown, this in idea should bounce into Monday and then continue lower.
But tomorrow is quarterly OPEX and most of the hedges are going offline, so much wider swings should unleash.
This has air all the way till 3800 on the ES, so be careful if long, get ready to flip if it starts going
Main resistance and supports were outlined in my latest SPX update
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One clear possibility on Jackson Hole WeekAdding the developing Head & Shoulders pattern to the clear accumulation and distribution seen on the 4h chart from June's lows until now. Note that the VPOC has already moved up from 3771 to 4137 (where we've been essentially stuck for days).
If the pattern triggers and reaches target, $ES would be right back to the accumulation cost basis, with big momo traders having pocketed a hefty 350+ point profit.
SPX Support 618% retrace of latest run here (spot...cash is still a little lower) along with the 200 hr average, which has been a precise pivot for months. Stabilizing here wouldn't be a surprise. -Jamie
ES 1h cloud held the bottomLets see if we get to test the bottom of the Bollinger or 4060-80ES
It should hold and continue lower to re-test Thursday's lows as well as close the gap
The pressure is down and if we close on the lows today, this will continue selling into the 15th low!
If we satisfy 3955SPX today or even test lower and close above 3955SPX, then it could be a good sign of a local bottom
Needs below 4005-4000SPX for more waterfall
ES close to its main resiatance at 4115Im going to short 4115 level tomorrow am or if we get there in pre-market am
Ideally we test my 4125-35SPX (4115-25ES) tomorrow and retrace hard into the 13th low
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ES TONIGHT PATHWAYIm looking for3965 test and blast to 4015-20 tomorrow am.
4020ES and 4025SPX is a very heavy resistance, expect a rejection with some pullback and then another push to go over it.
Im lightly short for the 4065ES target, will flip long from 4062-64 level
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ES is trying to breakout hereMain resistance is 4020ES and 4025SPX
Needs to close above 3960 for tomorrow to continue
$SPY Elliott Wave Analysis 9/7/22$SPY Looking for a fifth wave down to complete A or 1 to the downside.
$SPX $SPY Elliott Wave Analysis 9/6/22$SPY $SPX Expanding Diagonal Count.
Wave 5 must be larger than 3 to complete this pattern.
ES is in triangle, not looking bullish to my eyesI don't like ES and the NQ being in triangle, I think it will be broken soon.
Will be entering with short on the break, target is the same 3840-50 might even stretch to 3830ES.
Again IF we break to the downside.
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Thanks in advance!
ES chart, nothing new since last ES updateI should of pay attention to this chart more, perfect hit of the 61.8 on this low, has more room to go compare to the SPX
This can spike down on Monday and reverse into the opening, so a crazy double reversal Tuesday is very possible!
ES1 going to bounce hardThe 4 hour stochastic is at 0 again, greed trade is obviously down. Bounce in the morning, question is if it sustains.
ES very tricky both H&S and IHSI wont rule out a gap down tomorrow into the support cluster zone of 3910-50SPX.
ES has a small H&S pattern, visible on 5 min and bigger ISH, visible here.
Im not going to fight it when it breaks in either direction.
The cycle window for the low is today, it can stretch into tomorrow with lower lows being bought in am and rally all day.
This is my best guess for tomorrow, unless we gap up and rally all day as well.
Monthly closing resistance was provided in previous update
Must hold 3980 here again
Daily analysis & day trading setups - SPX500 SPX S&P500 20220829Happy New Week, Happy Monday,
4023 is the line in the sand. SPX is stuck between 100DMA @ 4056 & 50DMA @ 4000
Break of either will clear the direction
Macro ECB Lane Speech, US Fed's Brainard Speech
Buy
Break: 4 041, 056, 065, 095
Reversal: 4 000, 3 982, 955, 935
Sell
Break: 4 000, 3 985, 956, 936
Reversal: 4 042, 055, 076, 095, 110, 125
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
ES to follow through the Fri moveI really want to see a low made pre-market and reverse into the open, that would be very bullish!
4160-75 is the main resistance one and one more to follow at 4200, that should cap any move up.
Going to buy longs tonight and exit ES short around 4k, if we get there.
I will be shorting that move up from 4160-70 and then 4200 for a move down to 3920-50.
Im thinking there is a good chance of this up move to be extened into the Sep OPEX after the upcoming low. Can get above 4300 again or make a lower low, all depends on how low we go on this move down.
Support is at 3990-4005ES for tonight.
ES AHs updatePerfect 4200 hit, I had few running from 4148, some was exited at 4172 and 80, one at 4196.5. Have only 2 left, will exit at BE or if we extend to 4210-20.
Im short NQ after the close.
Nothing broken, Im looking at it as another bear rally. EOM will be quite surprising.
Its def frustrating for many who short every top, have stops!!! Always hedge! If resistance broken, flip to the long side, its that simple.
My internet problems cost me 3k in un-managed stops, was able to cover half before the close, but still not fun
Tomorrow is a weekly closing, as well as PCE numbers, last 2 times we sold off hard on those, will the history repeat?
Im betting on down, bought some Aug 31 puts as lotto trade as well as I have NQ shorts running.
Its a directional change tomorrow, only 2 scenario, it will just continue the same pathway and we go up to close the gap or just open down and make a reversal.
Make your bets, I made mine. Its a game we all play, never 100% but must win more then loose.
Again, always have stops!
Will do SPX later tonight, when I see updated numbers and cycles.
ES exit all longs, now short, tight stopExit longs here, short with a stop above am highs, SPX still can stretch into my second target at 4177-9
ES is in resistance zone nowES has a bit different look from SPX, needs to hold here if it going to continue sliding.
I have exited half of the longs from 4148 here, rest BE
ES has to hold 4140-41 and press to 4160Must hold this level and especially 4140 to press to 4160-65
Im flat, will be watching the close to make a decision for tomorrow.
Daily analysis & day trading setups - SPX500 SPX S&P500 20220824Happy Midweek, Happy Wednesday,
Macro EU DE 10y Bond Auction, US Durable Goods Order, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales
Buy
Break: 4 125, 145, 160, 175
Reversal: 4 115, 100, 085, 060, 045
Sell
Break: 4 118, 106, 086, 062
Reversal: 4 152, 170, 187, 211, 243
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
ES has the same very visual bear flagI want to point out this bear flag, both on the ES and the NQ, perfect fib alignment into 12703-20 zone.
Tomorrow is a panic cycle day, will it be a gap down and reversal or we just break down?
My timing for the low is still the 25th and possibly 29th
I like 4069-80 zone hit and hold, failure to hold it will get us down to 3930-50 zone before it's over.
