ES morning updatePCE numbers were out, was a nice quick dump but no continuation as it came better then expected imo.
That alone takes the crash scenario out of the picture for today.
All eyes on 3745ES and 3623ES here in pre-open market.
Still want my 3580-88 level hit and hold. Will be looking to buy longs today and exit swing short position as per plan outlined before
Its Fri, dont get trapped.
Es_f
ES progress chartI slept in today and this is what I was worried about from my last night NQ update, the EOM sell:
There is a chance we see 3580 level today and if it closes below 3600 I think we gap down and see another 100 points cut tomorrow am!
Be really careful with sizing on the long side till tomorrow's lows.
I will be all out from my swing MNQ short tomorrow and will be looking for a long if we see 3500 or below tomorrow.
Since its usually doesnt bottom on Fridays, next week bounce should be muted imo but a drift upwards to the 6-7th high would make a perfect sense.
Also watch out OCT EOM can be a good repeat of what we see now
$SPY Analysis, Key levels & Targets $SPY Analysis, Key levels & Targets
OK. Who's having fun? Today was a wild rollercoaster, huh 🤣 but everything is still on track.
All bull gaps between here and the weekly 200MA have been filled. Next one starts at 370, and that also happens to be a small support level as well… I would not be surprised if we try to head in that direction to try to fill that. My target is still 360 which is the 200 weekly MA and would make a double bottom with June lows.
The 35EMA on the MONTHLY timeframe is a huge level. If we stay under that, we are in a technical recession. I know we kind of are and kind of not according to some people, but IN THE CHARTS, that’s going to signal a recession that cannot be disputed. So huge level to watch. Big level to watch. We are definitely oversold on a ton of timeframes but there’s plenty of room in the technicals to move lower…
I’m still holding Dec puts and they are doing awesome… woot… I sold 373 puts for this week so if that hits I'm closing out, but if not i'm looking to close around 360... I've sold a bunch of call credit spreads on the weeklies as well and most of those did well. I think I had one that didn't work out but otherwise on the attempts to run
I’m a technical trader first and foremost - But JPow did not paint a pretty picture for the next two years at the FOMC meeting. This has been a lot of tightening after more than a decade of really easy money, so even though we are a little oversold on the smaller timeframes, I'm still seeing down on the larger ones and I believe those will win right now…. If we see any relief I believe it will be short lived and an opportunity to strengthen your directionally short position.
Oct 11th is the date I’m pinging for 360, but it could for sure be faster (or slower) but I do think we’re heading there. And AT 360 i do think we will see a little bit of meaningful relief. Lots of eyes on that double bottom opportunity... and that's where I'm going to be closing my dec. puts - or at least that's the plan
Good luck trading tomorrow, y'all... 💃🏻 I'm proud of everyone who's still hanging in. Bear markets are not easy... you ROCK!!! ☺️
ES stopped at its first good support trendline, SPX broke itCheck the orange line and see a link for the SPX chart below.
ES stopped at the support trendline (we broke out from on Jul 27th and now re-tested from the top)
Expect this to be a good support for at least this week.
SPX already broke it but stopped at smaller trendline from Sep 1 and 6th lows.
Apparently I can post 10 charts per day on this website and not more, so I will try to include links to my charts in my updates.
But this is very annoying, especially on days like today, I need an interactive trading platform so we all can share our charts and chat during the day.
I will do a separate SPX update with levels for tomorrow in an hour or so
But want to mention one thing:
- Usually the price reverses fully into Fri after the FOMC day.
Tomorrow is a directional change till Fri, expect a good size bounce and then lower into the 27th low.
After that low we should rally into early Oct high and make a final low Oct 28-31st (I will mention my main target in the SPX update)
ES must hold todays lows or at least 3900 levelYou can see how close it is for a breakdown, this in idea should bounce into Monday and then continue lower.
But tomorrow is quarterly OPEX and most of the hedges are going offline, so much wider swings should unleash.
This has air all the way till 3800 on the ES, so be careful if long, get ready to flip if it starts going
Main resistance and supports were outlined in my latest SPX update
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One clear possibility on Jackson Hole WeekAdding the developing Head & Shoulders pattern to the clear accumulation and distribution seen on the 4h chart from June's lows until now. Note that the VPOC has already moved up from 3771 to 4137 (where we've been essentially stuck for days).
If the pattern triggers and reaches target, $ES would be right back to the accumulation cost basis, with big momo traders having pocketed a hefty 350+ point profit.
ES 1h cloud held the bottomLets see if we get to test the bottom of the Bollinger or 4060-80ES
It should hold and continue lower to re-test Thursday's lows as well as close the gap
The pressure is down and if we close on the lows today, this will continue selling into the 15th low!
If we satisfy 3955SPX today or even test lower and close above 3955SPX, then it could be a good sign of a local bottom
Needs below 4005-4000SPX for more waterfall
ES close to its main resiatance at 4115Im going to short 4115 level tomorrow am or if we get there in pre-market am
Ideally we test my 4125-35SPX (4115-25ES) tomorrow and retrace hard into the 13th low
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ES TONIGHT PATHWAYIm looking for3965 test and blast to 4015-20 tomorrow am.
4020ES and 4025SPX is a very heavy resistance, expect a rejection with some pullback and then another push to go over it.
Im lightly short for the 4065ES target, will flip long from 4062-64 level
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ES is in triangle, not looking bullish to my eyesI don't like ES and the NQ being in triangle, I think it will be broken soon.
Will be entering with short on the break, target is the same 3840-50 might even stretch to 3830ES.
Again IF we break to the downside.
P.S. Don't forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!