ES1 going to bounce hardThe 4 hour stochastic is at 0 again, greed trade is obviously down. Bounce in the morning, question is if it sustains.
Es_f
ES very tricky both H&S and IHSI wont rule out a gap down tomorrow into the support cluster zone of 3910-50SPX.
ES has a small H&S pattern, visible on 5 min and bigger ISH, visible here.
Im not going to fight it when it breaks in either direction.
The cycle window for the low is today, it can stretch into tomorrow with lower lows being bought in am and rally all day.
This is my best guess for tomorrow, unless we gap up and rally all day as well.
Monthly closing resistance was provided in previous update
Must hold 3980 here again
Daily analysis & day trading setups - SPX500 SPX S&P500 20220829Happy New Week, Happy Monday,
4023 is the line in the sand. SPX is stuck between 100DMA @ 4056 & 50DMA @ 4000
Break of either will clear the direction
Macro ECB Lane Speech, US Fed's Brainard Speech
Buy
Break: 4 041, 056, 065, 095
Reversal: 4 000, 3 982, 955, 935
Sell
Break: 4 000, 3 985, 956, 936
Reversal: 4 042, 055, 076, 095, 110, 125
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
ES to follow through the Fri moveI really want to see a low made pre-market and reverse into the open, that would be very bullish!
4160-75 is the main resistance one and one more to follow at 4200, that should cap any move up.
Going to buy longs tonight and exit ES short around 4k, if we get there.
I will be shorting that move up from 4160-70 and then 4200 for a move down to 3920-50.
Im thinking there is a good chance of this up move to be extened into the Sep OPEX after the upcoming low. Can get above 4300 again or make a lower low, all depends on how low we go on this move down.
Support is at 3990-4005ES for tonight.
ES AHs updatePerfect 4200 hit, I had few running from 4148, some was exited at 4172 and 80, one at 4196.5. Have only 2 left, will exit at BE or if we extend to 4210-20.
Im short NQ after the close.
Nothing broken, Im looking at it as another bear rally. EOM will be quite surprising.
Its def frustrating for many who short every top, have stops!!! Always hedge! If resistance broken, flip to the long side, its that simple.
My internet problems cost me 3k in un-managed stops, was able to cover half before the close, but still not fun
Tomorrow is a weekly closing, as well as PCE numbers, last 2 times we sold off hard on those, will the history repeat?
Im betting on down, bought some Aug 31 puts as lotto trade as well as I have NQ shorts running.
Its a directional change tomorrow, only 2 scenario, it will just continue the same pathway and we go up to close the gap or just open down and make a reversal.
Make your bets, I made mine. Its a game we all play, never 100% but must win more then loose.
Again, always have stops!
Will do SPX later tonight, when I see updated numbers and cycles.
ES exit all longs, now short, tight stopExit longs here, short with a stop above am highs, SPX still can stretch into my second target at 4177-9
ES is in resistance zone nowES has a bit different look from SPX, needs to hold here if it going to continue sliding.
I have exited half of the longs from 4148 here, rest BE
ES has to hold 4140-41 and press to 4160Must hold this level and especially 4140 to press to 4160-65
Im flat, will be watching the close to make a decision for tomorrow.
Daily analysis & day trading setups - SPX500 SPX S&P500 20220824Happy Midweek, Happy Wednesday,
Macro EU DE 10y Bond Auction, US Durable Goods Order, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales
Buy
Break: 4 125, 145, 160, 175
Reversal: 4 115, 100, 085, 060, 045
Sell
Break: 4 118, 106, 086, 062
Reversal: 4 152, 170, 187, 211, 243
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
ES has the same very visual bear flagI want to point out this bear flag, both on the ES and the NQ, perfect fib alignment into 12703-20 zone.
Tomorrow is a panic cycle day, will it be a gap down and reversal or we just break down?
My timing for the low is still the 25th and possibly 29th
I like 4069-80 zone hit and hold, failure to hold it will get us down to 3930-50 zone before it's over.
ES has a similar setup for another gap downBe careful if long! This could gap down tomorrow again and hit 4065ES before a good size bounce to 4190-4200
ES must hold 4202.75ES must hold number is 4202.75, below we should see a dip down to 4175-90 zone tomorrow
Low risk R/R with a tight stop here below 4202.75. I will be looking for a small long tomorrow am if this number will be penetrated.
Im long from 4203.5 with a very tight stop
ES gapped down as expected, must hold levels for tomorrowMust hold level for tomorrow is 4172-90.
We must penetrate 4200 or 11th low to mark the temp (if not maj) high on Aug 16th
Ideal target is at 4045-60ES on this move lower and the bottom timing is on 25-26th of Aug.
Rally after into the 2nd of Sep high!
I dont want to be long going into the Labour Day weekend; market, historically, tops around the Labour Weekend.
SPX next to update with detailed notes to those who are on my email list. Will update that chart tomorrow am here
SPX Choppy Friday :: Be PreparedBased on price action, it appears that SPX in a ABC (Zig-Zag) pattern. Ratios are shown. I am looking to take short positions around 4300-4308 and looking for 4225 tomorrow in 5 legs.
This idea is invalidated > 4310 and implies more of a continuation of the ending diagonal overall.
Daily analysis and day trading setups on SPX SPX500USD 20220816This is the first daily analysis and day trading plan for SPX. I am already publishing NASDAQ & DAX daily trading plans here >>
NASDAQ
DAX
Line in the sand for SPX is 4280 but 4300 is too close so it is more like a zone of 20 points which is quite evident. The hourly bull flag is still in tact as long as Demand Zone 1 holds.
Macro US Building Permits, Housing Starts, CAD CPI
Buy
Break: 4295, 4313, 4327, 4347
Reversal: 4279, 4262, 4253, 4240, 4216
Sell
Break: 4281, 4285, 4254, 4243
Reversal: 4316, 4330, 4350, 4374
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
$ES - What to do now?$ES - What to do now?
This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning.
We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail sales. The key areas I am keeping in mind when it comes to fundamentals is the factoring in credit cards, has been escalating further and real estate is in trouble due to obviously high rates. There are many other bearish fundamental factors but then we have the bullish momentum side technically - ES is bullish and the fundamentals less rate hikes of hights 75 is less anticipated and further slow down leading DXY to pull back and ES, RYT, NQ & even looking at QQQ to excel further and this could be the bottom of 3700 areas for ES.
Technically - we are a trendline resistance which comes at the levels of: 4300-4200 areas. A key pull back towards areas of support of: 4180, 4000 & 3900. Are the areas I am keeping an eye on.
TJ
ES same picture as the SPXSee the resistance trendline, nothing much to add to this chart, all is in my last SPX update
ES 200MA is at 4325, in the target zone!
ES AHs updateES broke the uptrend small channel off am lows, good sign there. Its also jumped out its upper bull trend channel, must watch for possible fake out. If it means business for the bulls, I will trade the re-test of the trendline in am.
If you look at the chart, you can see that we hit 1.618 to the penny and the price is hovering right at the extension zone. I say it's a very important place to continue or reject, it seems we hit the wall here imo.
Im swing short here and have no stops at the moment, will be watching for the breakout to hold or fail
Bear market over? The structure shift we will need to see.We can observe the weekly trend in MES which mirrors SPX and all SPX futures. Following consecutive lower lows and lower highs, we have broken the prior swing high to create a higher high. Equal highs and the weekly fair value gap above act as a draw on liquidity. Weekly fair value gap below also acts as a draw on liquidity.
Retest and ‘double bottom’ in weekly demand would confirm a higher low following this higher high. Until proven otherwise, this is still a corrective move in a downtrend on higher timeframes.
#ES_F Major Inflection Point !Wow what a rally - from 3639 to now 4155!!!
Question is :
was this just a bear market rally and are we going to see another leg down....
Or is this a regime change and the start of another bull run to 6000 ?!
Although I have completely no idea :) , I do know where we are at now is a major indicator and inflection point IMO of what's to come for the remainder of 2022 for 2 major reasons.
1) MAJOR trendline that stems from 2018 - present being tested (white line) which price has responded to throughout 2020 and 2021 AND
2) 30 WEEKLY MA at 4200 which is a very important Technical inflection point often used to identify stocks' phases by Stan Weinstein.
A breakout above with continuation should trigger large inflows while any rejection or signs of weakness will have people running for the exits.
Very exciting next couple weeks! Keep in mind JPM has a massive collar on 4340C/3905P/3290P for SEP as well... and they usually don't lose (although they surely can rollll ) ;0
Cheers
ES is holding me off from being long hereIm on the sidelines for now.
This can turn any time, the window for the high is today/tomorrow
There is a good buying volume here, so no shorting
QQQ hit all PT’sQQQ hit all my PT’s. Next weeks calls up 200% from our entry at 308.50 from last post. Still looks good but a little extended short term. NQ also hit 13K resistance. If we see a gap up on monday, i might sell into strength and wait for pullback.
$SPY Mr. Market update and possible inflection pointMr. Market has had a nice rally from sub 400 to now trading 410 zone and right at the daily 100MA
Could be a major inflection point as we head into next week and a lot of supply overhead now on what is basically a pump from Apple AMZN and a few other earnings as well as the result of net short option positioning , and lack of sellers "in the hole" .
If you believe another major leg down is imminent, August - Sept seems likely as we now have had a decent bear market rally to accompany the thesis.
If you believe we go higher, look for some nice consolidation now and even retracement before starting the next leg up
Either way, I'd be careful adding longs here as the next weeks most likely involve downside or consolidation as this recent move up is digested.
IMO it's low probability of going straight up higher, but not out of the question if we get major news on - Ukraine war, etc.
Personally I've closed most my longs for decent / good profit and starting building shorts with mostly cash position right now. My lean is short / no trend here.
Cheers : )
