ES is setting up a breakdown support testnote the broken down rising trendline resistance. Im expecting it to get tested and rejected hard with new lows mid July (13-14th), ideally we test 3500 and hold it.
The longer term target is 3209SPX now
Es_f
#ES 07.01.22 Daily Overview and Levels to WatchYday we opened right at our 3780.50-3776.75 level, failed over it and drove down to break Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 from which I was expecting to go down and hit next Key Level lower but we failed to take out 3747.50-3744.75 and found a nice bid down there that took us all the way back to test Previous Day Low and T2 area over our 3809.50-3805.25 level where we found sellers. Rest of the day was not much action as we have Holiday Weekend coming up and not as many participants in the market plus all the real size traders are out enjoying their time with interns running the show. Question today is will we have a slower balanced day or will we get some unexpected action. In Globex we found support at Previous day low and put together a position between Previous Day Low and our 3764.75-3760.50 Level that we drove up and selling up here, we should open today inside Previous Days Range but under T+2 low which tells us we can see selling from that area but will it be strong enough to take us lower today and break previous day low and extend to next Key Level or not.
--- On The Downside: Holding below Previous Day High and T+2 area which is around Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25 is a sign of continued weakness and failure to take 3791.75-3787.75 and extend higher or failure at T+2 low area can give us a push lower to 3780.50-3776.75 and Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 This will be first area to watch for continuation lower, if this breaks we have Previous Day Low and our 3747.50-3744.75 Level that we need to see break for us to get any lower, if that happens we have 3728.75-3725.25 and 3714.75-3709.75 Where we can find support so would be the spot to watch if we get there for continuation or not.
--- On The Upside: Holding above Globex position and Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 can give us 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 and possibly T+2 low Key level of 3809.50-3805.25 where we would watch for continuation higher, would have to take Previous Day High and accept to really get going to the upside.
--- We can also have an inside day and just balance between T2 Low areas and Previous Day low, Friday before the holiday can give us a grindy day without much to do.
*** Levels to Watch: 3825.50-3820.25 // 3809.50-3805.25 // 3764.75-3760.50 // 3747.50-3744.75
Gold Fractals Align - Could See A HUGE Price Swing HigherCycles & Fractals are aligning for an aggressive move higher in Gold & Silver.
If my research is correct, a similar fractal is setting up right now compared to the one from the GFC (2008-2011). I believe we are at a peak in the Gold/Silver ratio and we could see an aggressive move downward in this ratio over the next 6~18+ months - sending Gold and Silver MUCH HIGHER.
Follow my research and learn to protect and grow your wealth. There are still decent stocks/ETFs to trade - but now is the time to be SUPER CAUTIOUS.
Gold/Silver/Bonds should begin to move higher as FEAR takes over the markets.
#ES 06.30.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchYday we had a balanced day between our supply above 3853-3847 and our buyers in the Gap area and Key Support at 3809.50-3805.25. We had a seller above 3840 all day and we could get past that 40 wall even with all the buying which tells us someone was selling filling orders into all the buying. Globex we broke the Key Support and saw that inventory leak out down to our next Key Level which we wanted to see yesterday at 3764.75-3760.50, We currently found support here but as I mentioned yesterday there is not a lot of support below and if this does break today and we accept then I will have my eyes on lower Key Levels at 3714.75-3709.75 and always possible to reach 3671.75-3665.75 if enough order flow. It is last day of the Month a day before 3 day Holiday weekend so no one wants to put a lot of risk on these last two days and a lot might want to try and get out of their positions. Anything can happen on Month end so we watch levels to break and continuation. Currently our Globex inventory is short from yesterdays close, we are under T+2 and previous day lows which can give us margin calls. At the open we will want to see if we will get any correction to the ON Inventory or if we will get a trend continuation right away. We have Core PCE at 830 we are waiting for now, lets see how we open.
--- On The Downside: Holding below 3809.50-3805.25 is continued sign of weakness, if we fail get over 3780.50-3776.75 and come back down to break/accept under Key Support of 3764.75-3760.50 that can give us a test of 3747.50-3744.75, 3728.75-3725.25, Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 where we can see some buying but if going down and break it then we can see continuation lower towards 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 and Key Level of 3671.75-3665.75
--- On The Upside: Holding above Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 can give us a correction to the upside towards 3780.50-3776.75 and maybe 3791.75-3787.75 these would be important areas to watch for continuation higher but in order to get a upside confirm and get any real continuation higher we would have to get through and accept over 3809.50-3805.25
*** Levels to Watch: 3791.75-3787.75 // 3780.50-3776.75 // 3764.75-3760.50 // 3714.75-3709.75 // 3698.50-3695.50
Want to see This Hold the Last Hour in SPYPretty simple...you want to see anchored VWAP off of the low hold in SPY in order to have a constructive view. If this fails to hold (hold=daily close for me) then the next 'natural level' to focus on is the low.
-Jamie
#ES 06.29.22 Overview with Levels to WatchYday we opened above Previous Day high and that gave us a push over our Key Level of 3931.75-3927.25, we were able to reach next level up but failed to extend from it after a strong opening push which was our first warning sign. We we came back in under Key Level and got back under Previous Day high and our level of 3914.75-3910.75 was our downside confirm with a good short entry for a target of T+2 Half back around 3878.75-3874.75 which was a spot to watch for continuation, if the buying was day was buying that will take us higher we would have held that area or dipped below and came back in but we just went right through it all the way down towards T+2 low and found support right below it for now. Question today is did we flush out all the longs from the top and found buyers here to take in all the supply so we can see a push higher towards yesterdays break down or will we get continuation to the downside. We still have a gap below us around our Key Support at 3809.50-3805.25 which is currently giving us the support to hang out here, we are under T+2 low and still should have supply above so very possible to see some margin calls today. We have GDP at 830 and FED Speaking at 930 so can be a bit volatile at the open.
--- On The Downside: Holding below our Key Level of 3853.25-3847.25 is a sign of continued weakness, failure to get over this area and accept or if we fail here at 3839-3835.50 without reaching that area can give us a test of 3825.50-3820.25 and Key Support/Gap Area at 3809.50-3805.25 if that goes today then we don't have as much support below us and can see 3791.75-3787.75, 3780.50-3776.75 and next Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 IF we are going down with good volume and see those areas get taken out then we can see a move even lower just have to watch level by level, can even see 3714.75-3709.75 area.
--- On The Upside: We would need to get over this 3839-3835.50 Level in order to see Key Level of 3853.25-3847.25 and this will be the spot to watch for any continuation higher, if we do get over it and accept we can see a move higher towards T+2 Low, the levels to watch would be 3866.75-3863.25, 3878.75-3874.75 and 3892.25-3887.25.
*** Levels to Watch: 3853.25-3847.25 // 3839-3820.25 // 3809.50-3805.25 // 3791.75-3787.75 // 3764.75-3760.50 // 3714.75-3709.75
#ES 06.28.22 Overview with Levels to WatchYday we had a balanced RTH between Globex inventory over our Key Level of 3931.75-3927.25 and short position below our Key Level 3892.25-3887.25. Last night in Globex we tested Key Support and it held giving us rotation back up to 3931.75-3927.25 but this morning so far we have failed to get over it and accept, currently that inventory is coming out and we want to see where we open but for now we are back in under T+2 high area and holding under is our first sign of weakness and could give us a test of at least T2 half back area around 3875 which is where we also have buyers in those single prints below it. If we failed to hold under T2 High area that will be our sign that we might not have supply for that, have to watch and see what we do.
--- On The Downside: Holding under T+2 High area and Key Level 3931.75-3927.25 is our sign of weakness and can give a test of 3914.75-3910.75, 3901.25-3898 Key Level at 3892.25-3887.25 and Possibly T2 half back area at 3878.75-3874.75. We do expect to see buying around there if we do get there and this would be the spot to watch for continuation lower or failure. If we do break and accept under then we have 3866.75-3663.25 Key Level at 3853.25-3847.25 and T+2 low area around 3839-3835.50
--- On The Upside: Failure to extend lower and reach Key Level at 3892.25-3887.25 or reach and fail to take out can give us a push back up towards T+2 High area which would be the spot we need to get over and hold today in order to
get continuation higher, if we can do that then we have Key Level at 3931.75-3927.25 if we take it can see 3944.25-3940.25, 3957.25-3953.25 up to next Key Level of 3976.50-3971.50
*** Levels to Watch: 3931.75-3927.25 // 3914.75-3910.75 // 3892.25-3887.25 // 3878.75-3874.75
#ES 06.27.22 Overview with Levels to WatchFriday morning RTH opened up and right away drove over the Globex inventory and a level to watch of 3839-3835.50, inventory was long and we got no correction that told us the strength for the day, we drove straight to next Key Level of 3892.25-3887.25 Where we found some resistance which was right at the Gap area where we expected to have supply, we consolidated for some time and got an afternoon drive to fill the Gap and tested higher levels. Last night Globex failed to break our 3901.25-3898 level and come down to test Key Level of 3892.25-3887.25 which told us we did not have supply for that yet. After the London open we were able to drive the inventory over the next Key Level and have been selling it over since. Question today is will we get continuation of strength and test of higher levels or will we come back in and test the lower break out areas. Globex inventory right now is mostly long over Friday close and looks like correcting, we have Durable Goods at 8:30am and will have to see where we will open today.
--- On The Upside: Holding above Previous Day high and over our 3914.75-3910.75 level is a sign of stability and can give us another attempt at Key Level of 3931.75-3927.25 (that is we get a correction under it) if not that can give us
even more strength to push higher, if we accept over this Key Level then our upper targets will be 3944.25-3940.25 , 3957.25-3953.25 and next Key Level of 3976.50-3971.50 which we will have to monitor for any continuation higher.
It is month end and good saying is don't short month end so lets see if we get some continuation this week week or not.
--- On The Downside: If we get under Key Level of 3931.75-3927.25 we have Previous Day high area and a level of 3914.75-3910.75 which we will need to watch for signs of continuation lower, if we do accept in Previous Day Range then
we can see 3901.25-3898 and Key Level of 3892.25-3887.25, for the buying from Friday to stick we would ideally see it hold that level IF we get there, if it gets taken out and we accept under then we will monitor for continuation
lower but for now we are over T+2 High and Previous Day High which does not give us much confidence for shorts but in this market anything can happen so we watch it level to level.
*** Key Levels to Watch: 3931.75-3927.25 // 3914.75-3910.75 // 3892.25-3887.25 -- 3957.25-3953.25 // 3976.50-3971.50
ES Long is activeNew buyers can scale in the Long,which means to target lower entry prices. ore up seems to be coming. Trade at your own risk.
ES hit 50% retracement of the lowsTaking a small short going into the weekend, will be looking to buy a retracement on Sunday/Monday pre-market
ES A VERY CLEAR IHSI'm on a seminar and not really following the market last few days.
Its a very cleat IHS on the ES to me and if we wont breakdown today, tomorrow can gap up.
Target is in 3940-50 zone
Failed Breakout, Back Into RangeThe S&P stuck its neck above last week's FOMC gap settlement and the SPY had a bullish engulfing daily candle, but all was surrendered ahead of the close. These are some of the indicator we are looking at to signal this pop in stocks can turn into a real rebound.
#ES 06.22.22 Daily Plan with Levels Was expecting this retracement yesterday but we had too many people short from Thursday/Friday and structure yday showed early that we will not come down for now when we held the Gap area pre market, drove away from it at the open and got over the Globex inventory. Failure to extend over 3780.50-3776.75 and reach next stops around 3790 area was my MGI that this buying is not as strong and we are most likely selling our position from below here and once shorts are filled and we get under Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 then we could find ourselves back at T+2 High area and the beginning of Sunday Globex move, I was hoping we will do that closer to RTH so I can trade it but missed the trade last night. Today we currently looked below our Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 which is also Friday high/T+2 High area, we have more supply now trapped over 3747.50-3444.75 which might give us a push we need to take out the lows from Thursday/Friday.
-- On The Downside: Holding under 3728.75-3725.25 will be a sign of weakness for us today as that is the GAP area we technically never filled in RTH, getting under our Key level of 3714.75-3709.75 and accepting will be our downside
confirm which could give us tests of 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75, next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 and if that goes we can continue lower towards the lows from Last week and our next levels to watch will be 3655.25-
3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and next Key Support 3619.50-3613.25 if we do get that low then those areas can be a good location for a bounce.
-- On The Upside: Holding above T+2/Friday high and our Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 is a sign of stability, if we fail to get under and accept then that can give us a test of 3728.75-3725.25 area which would be our gap fill and from
there we need to monitor continuation, could get to 3741.50-3744.75 and Key Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50 but we have supply trapped from yesterday there, will be cautious on the upside.
*** Key Levels to Watch: 3728.75-3725.25 // 3714.75-3709.75 // 3671.75-3665.75 // 3638.25-3634.25
#ES 06.21.22 Daily Plan with LevelsSunday/Monday Globex we keep marking up and selling our product, we got into the area I put on watch yesterday and this is what I want to see if we will hold and accept or did we sell our product from below and will come back down to look for buyers lower. So far Globex inventory 100% long from Friday Close, we now have people trapped between our 3728 and 3747 area and are back in the Gap location, Gap is not considered filled until we do it RTH so here are the two scenarios I will be looking at.
-- On The Upside: Holding above our Key Support of 3714.75-3709.75 is a sign of strength in RTH and can give us a test of this Gap fill area at 3728.75-3725.25 ( if we get under it before RTH and hold support ) and if we take out that area and hold above then upper levels are 3447.50-3444.75 and next Key Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50, Gap area and Key Support will be key levels to hold for that to happen. If we do hold those and are going up on big volume then can see areas tested above Key Resistance as well.
-- On the Downside: Getting under this Gap area and our level of 3728.75-2725.25 would be our first sign of weakness, we have Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 which lines up with our Friday High and T+2 High if we are able to break that and accept back inside Friday range then we can see the lower levels tested at 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75, next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 and if that goes then we have lower levels and Friday low to test which would be 3655.25-3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and next Key Support at 3619.50-3613.25 IF we are going down on big volume then can expect that support to be broken and extended a bit lower as well.
*** Key areas to watch 3728.75-3725.25 - 3714.75-3709.75
ES BOUNCED OF THE MAIN RESISTANCE, EXPECT A TRIANGLE INTO THUES couldn't break the main resistance, Im short with a stop just above it.
Expect a Triangle trade into Thursday, ideally we see around 3900 on the 23rd/24th
#ES_F Levels of resistance going into Q2 closeAnother ugly quarter so far with US Equities officially going into a bear market, an abundance of bearish sentiment, and talks of recession.
Price is king and with the nice downward channel it looks like we may get a relief rally this week (possibly into next as well) given :
- Reversion to the mean with price now well beneath the 30 day moving average
- RSI near oversold on the daily
- Bottom MACD curl
- Quarter end window dressing
- Opex behind us
Until the regime changes it's a STFR (short the .. rip) trading plan . I'm trading around a core Bear Risk Reversal position with DEC opex in solid names and some China (mostly green with some slightly underwater after last week). Hedged with JUL QQQ put debit spread in case we open this week with a nasty leg down although R/R favors near term upside IMO.
Resistance levels charted but my eyes will focused on how price reacts at the 3925 zone (obviously assuming we get there) as I will take some long profit and start legging into shorts here.
Stay Liquid Friends
Cheers
$ES $SPX Futures Sideways til EU open1710-1650 range/channel bound until open of EU markets.
Fairly neutral at this point, back and forth with no real momentum to either side.
#ES1! Daily Trade Plan with Levels 06.17.22Yday we got our downside move to play out, we found buyers below our Key Level of 3671.75-3665.75 and got a push above it, in Globex so far we tested the level and were unable to break it which meant we are out of supply for time being and rotation back towards the upper levels. Currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside ydays range and just hanging out here at the High of yday and our current Key Resistance of 3714.75-3709.75. Today is Friday, we had eventful week and options expire today so it will be very tricky to trade, Fridays are for protecting capital made during the week and not get aggressive for me. Previous day high and T+2 Low will be important resistance areas for me today in order to get any continuation higher we would need to accept in T+2 that would tell us we have no margin calls or outside selling for now. If we fail to do that and start coming down then we can always test Previous day Low and lower levels if order flow permits. For now we have support over Key Resistance and shorts trapped below us from yday who will be the buyers, might see a balanced day as well.
-- On the Upside continuing to hold over 3686.75-3683.75 and 3698.50-3695.50 is a sign of strength but we are right under Key Resistance for me I would like to see us take that out and show us that it will hold in order to get
continuation higher and next Key area to watch for continuation is 3728.75-3725.25 which would be our T+2 low for today, if both of those get taken out then we could see a trip back up to 3747.50-3444.75 and possibly next Key
Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50 and maybe even 3780.50-3776.75 area which would be our T+2 Half Back.
-- On the Downside if we fail to get over Key Resistance and hold above then we have a lot of supply built up here in Globex, if we fail and start coming down we have 3698.50-3695.50 and 3686.75-3673.75 where we will want to
monitor for breaks and continuation in order to get further downside, Key Support is at 3671.75-3665.75 if we do find ourselves back under it then lower levels and Prev day low is in reach at 3655.25-3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and
next Key Support at 3619.50-3613.25
** Manage expectations today and get ready for it to be choppy unless we get a clear move out.
ES has a bit more clear pathway to the downside could target Target confluence is at 3587ES, very deep but can get there in no time, crazy market!
This will turn today/tomorrow, otherwise cycles are inverted, crazy times!
If anyone is riding the futs, just trail it and keep it rolling on the spikes again and again till it stops working
I will leave it this the way it is.
ES must break the resistance line next resistance is 3710!Should squeeze here an now or we get back to the lows again.
3710 becomes the first maj resistance (held the other day)
The bottoming timing window is today or tomorrow am, very close for a significant relive rally, ideally back to 3900 gap
closing above 3710 today and tomorrow will be a good sign of the temp low being in place!
#ES Futures 06.15.22 Daily Plan with LevelsFED Day! What will the market give us today? Yday we were not able to hold our Key Support of 3764.75-3760.50 as we expected because we were under T+2 low and had people trapped from Globex session above, we were able to get below and accept in lower range and we got the test of lower levels down to our next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and as mentioned we needed extra juice to get through that level and since it was almost towards the end of the day when we got there I did not expect much continuation, I did not expect that good of response from there right away either so I didnt trade it but we got what we got. I spent my day shorting from 65-60 area and had myself a great day. Today can be very tricky to trade as all FED days are because lots of eyes are watching and waiting, currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside T+2 range and seems like cleaning out sellers from above our 3764.75-3760.50 level. We have Retail Sales 8:30 and FOMC starting at 2, Key today is to manage expectations and not expect big moves until they prove themselves.
- Supports Today: 3747.50-3744.75 is our PM Support and the area of Yday close which will be important and current Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 as well as T+2 low
- Resistance Today: 3780.50-3776.75 is our current PM Resistance then 3791.75-3787.75 and our Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25 also our T+2 high area for today (from RTH not including Globex) is right at our 3825.50-3820.25 level.
> On The Upside continuing to hold above PM Support is a sign of strength, our position is currently under us below 3764.75-3760.50 level which if holds today can give us a test of higher levels at 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 if we get through those I will be watching next Key Resistance at 3809.50-3805.25 which is Prev Day Globex high area, watching for us to take it and hold or take it and come back in or fail to take. We should still have sellers in the market and I do see us testing the lower Key levels again at some point, will it be today or not we will have to see but I am managing my expectations to the upside until those levels start getting taken out and we hold over.
> On The Downside getting back under 3764.75-3760.50 will be our first signs of weakness and breaking our PM support will be a better downside confirm for me, if this happens im looking for a test of 3728.75-3725.25, Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and possibly a break of that to 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 and possibly next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 to be tested.
As Mentioned Fed days are tricky and we can even see both scenarios play out with them running it up to sell their position from below and then dropping the bid or going lower first trapping more people short to give them a push higher. Have to be patient and watch levels for breaks and continuation.
#ES Futures Daily Overview with Levels to Watch 06.14.22Yday we saw Key Support area of 3764.75-3760.50 hold on the first test, we did make another attempt at it before close and were able to reach next level down so we found acceptance in that lower range. At the close wholesale took in the supply under 3764.75 and used Globex to drive it up and sell higher, Globex inventory was mostly long all night until we found sellers at our Key Resistance of 3809.50-3805.25 and now we corrected it back to the close. Currently we are holding this 3764.75-3760.50 Key Support area and waiting for PPI release at 8:30. Looks like we are again set to open today under T+2 Low which is all the way back at 3896 so I would be very surprised if we dont see more selling today and at least test the lower levels down to 3714.75-3709.75 and maybe lower if we have enough sell volume. We had two days of big moves so set ups might require patients today.
- On The Upside continuing to hold this support at 3764.75-3760.50 can give us another push and test of 3780.50-3776.75 and maybe 3791.75-3787.75 those will be the areas to watch for continuation higher and of course to get any real move out towards that gap we would need to see us get through Key Resistance of 3809.50-3805.25.
- On The Downside we now have globex inventory built up in this 3809.50-3760.50 range and if we do break below and accept in the lower range then our levels to the downside are 3741.50-3744.75, 3728.75-3725.25 and next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75. If we have enough juice today we can see us take that and if we do then we will watch lower areas for response at 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 are the areas we can see response and next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75.
ES looking for a green close - Main support to hold is 3748ES targets 3818
This is a fifth attempt to post
Main support to hold is 3748
