SP500 ES - BEARISH BIAS NEXT WEEK! BEARS GONNA EAT
📉Bearish Bias Next Week 📉
🔴Weekly IRL Tagged
🔴Strong H4 Bearish PA after Weekly IRL Tag
🔴Looking to short towards Weekly ERL
🎯Target: 4235.5
Es_fshort
ES_F ESZ2023 SP500 ES - Short ESZ2023 Short Shaping Up
Price tagged into a weekly FVG and weekly OB.
Just had strong bearish shift on H4.
Will be hunting M15 short setups on a retrace into H4 premium.
Target PWL.
ES_F The Dip Before the Rip to 4700Looking for a week to let out some fluff and find new buyers going into the first full week of April before another sell-off down to 4100 possible 4000 before April is over. I do think it seeps into May where we may get another jump up towards the end of April, but we will see where we are at with rate hikes, inflation, etc. For now, I am eyeing 4380 as the weekly low and to buy against going into next week for an eventual move back to 4750. It may take a few days to get the fluff going, but should be a nice short once it hits. High side is 4565, low side 4380.
$SPY and $ES_F I try my best to stay away from "call-out" type posts because that's not really what I'm about. That being said, I'm doing one today in conjunction with an educational post because they fit together pretty well.
Note: on the main chart I'm submitting with this, the topmost moving average (where price is resting as I write this) is the 200HMA using daily candles. The bottommost moving average is the 200HMA using monthly candles.
SHORT VERSION
The short version is that I'm looking for a short entry on CME_MINI:ES1! and/or AMEX:SPY .
THE LONG VERSION
In roughly the past 10 years, ES futures and SPY have fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly candle a handful of times. My data plan on TradingView I guess doesn't give me far enough data to show it, but on my other charting platform you can see that as far back as 2011 almost every single time ES has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has been caught by the 200HMA on the monthly. 100% of the time that price has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has resulted in a sustained period of volatility.
Currently, ES has not breached this sufficiently but it looks to be close. What I'm looking for as confirmation before entering is:
the weekly candle for the week of 1/23/2022 opens below the 200HMA on the weekly candle
daily volume on ES has not fallen below 1.2mn (click the related idea for my overview of using volume to help time when the bottom may be in)
If this criteria is met, I'm going short on ES selling short contracts but also buying puts on SPY as well. While you don't want to buy calls as a way to "buy the dip" due to the impact of elevated TVC:VIX after a sell-off, you may want to buy puts if you are expecting a sell-off due to the impact that an exploding VIX will have on your options premiums.
To be clear, I am not calling for some catastrophic market crash. I'm calling for a technical correction to a regularly established baseline that's all.
PT 1 for me would be 4100. PT 2 for me would be 3400. For context 1 contract for CME_MINI:MES1! (the little brother to ES) nets you $5 per point. If I were to enter at 4400 then by PT 1 (if I'm right), that results in $1500/contract excluding fees.
CLARIFYING STATEMENTS
This is a play I'm entering with or without posting this. If you decide to follow along, you're making a conscious decision of your own. If you decide to enter and this fails, you will get no sympathy from me, I will award you no points, and my God have mercy on your soul.
ES_F: More Pain before the Spring ReliefES_F making a case for 4380 and 4320 this upcoming week. Watch our video for levels!
ES_F Range Bound for nowWe look range bound on ES_F between 4606 and 4707. They moved the local POC to 4663 and am looking for that number going into RTH tomorrow.
Above 4663 in RTH we could go test 4681 and then off to 4700 area. I will be looking to fade 4700 area. If that fails, will look to 4740 again to hold the line for bears. 4740 is the breakout area that would take the market back to ATH and beyond.
We most likely stay range bound, but may get lucky for a 50 point move down if 4663 holds and they break this weekends lows of 4638.
ES_F: Today's Thots dES_F plan for rest of day: Look for panic selling at the 4650 area. If it breaks 4620 comes, if it holds we should zip back to 4700-4712.
ES_F 4800?ES_F looking for a breakout of 4742 this week. The amount of buyers that will come in on a confirmed s/r flip there will blow your mind. Plan for Monday: Chop to pullback at 4680 and max pain at 4667 into Tuesday. Looking to buy and hold as long as we don't close under 4650. 3 historic levels that have been a huge area of interest for both buyers and sellers. Blue is the top of the huge channel we are starting to create (accumulation or distribution?) red is the bottom of the channel. Green is local daily areas of historical s/r. Personally believe we run it up, but any day close under 4667 turns me bear. 4650 confirms that thesis.
Time to take advantage of the ES_F correction?Greetings traders. Upon viewing the Mini S&P, it seems a few factors have lined up to provide a shorting opportunity! First we have a great test and rejection of structural resistance around the 4475 area which lined up with the retracement zone of the move from 4550 down to 4293. Since then, we have put in an nicely formed impulse that diverges well between wavs 3 and 5. On top of that, price has formed a bat pattern that lends weight to a reversal that seems to be already under way! I am going to try a short with a target zone between 4383 and 4362 with stops above 4440! Good luck!
