This market has been a momentum hound and weak dollar story. It is fair to say momentum is waning and the weak dollar might be in the rear view mirror as the DXY key component, the EURUSD has broken down at key multi-decade resistance. Keep an eye on it as stocks do puke every now and then.
This is a follow-up from the Bounce Zone series of charts where I highlighted equity indices were at key support levels. After of a week oscillation, the $ESA and $NQA have formed a potential Gartley formation. What is a Gartley formation? A Gartley is a bullish reversal pattern which is found after severe declines, characterized by short-term double tops and...
The current technical picture for the $ESA is very similar to that in 4Q-18 and is essentially a pennant formation in the making. A pennant formation is essentially a continuation pattern and the measured objective for a breakdown is 2680. Economically speaking, the US is not an economically isolated island and the PMI slipping below 50 to 49.9 should be viewed...
$ESA broke down from a pennant formation yesterday which suggest a CD leg has commenced with a downside objective of 2700 which coincides with a Daily SSR support level. Check out my chart series named "Confluence of Coincidences" which was published a few weeks ago.
With the $ES and $NQ rebounding off the 200-dma and at the 61.8% retracement level, the big question is this another BTFD moment or part of a bigger move down? The $RTY might provide a clue here with a breakdown from a wedge and a retest of the wedge lower boundary which is also marked by a SSR resistance. Odds are for a CD leg down for the Russell 2K and...
Powell did the best he could, but it was always going to be lose-lose proposition for the July rate cut. With no Fed cow bells and almost zero chance of a trade deal, the negative cycle is catching up with the $ESA. I have posted in recent days on how the FANGs and chip stocks are breaking down, why continue to pay top dollar in the belief that the $ESA will...
$ESA is +c.8% in 13 trading days and testing price action's upper limits for the 3rd time in 9 months. I am oft reminded of the maxim to buy on rumors and sell on facts.
$TYA hits an ABCD price objective in spectacular fashion as Trump enlarges the trade war to include Mexico. Not sure what would cause a sell-off in bonds, but the fact the $TYA hit the ABCD target in such an explosive manner as we head into the last trading day of the month and new SSRs being set, makes me do a double and want to take money off the table. ...
Over the last 18 months, the 2800 level has been a consistent significant support/resistance level for the ESA. With China making its retaliatory moves yesterday, we are probably at peak negativity with regards to the trade war until the run-up to the Trump-Xi meeting in end June. Please note, I do not think this is a BTFD moment, it is more of a watch for the...
Couple of harmonic completion in JPM:- #1 The Feb to Mar butterfly formation which resulted in... #2 An extended ABCD down move to 106. #3 Price reversal with heavy volume on the 138.2% extension of the #2 ABCD which... #4 Happens to be the 78.6% retracement level (higher low) from the 6 Feb low. All these leads me to think JPM is about to make a move up to try...
Markets are dynamic and I like to revisit my assumptions to search for the null hypothesis. The last time I posted on the ESA, I was looking for a CD leg up for a potential upside to c.2800. While the call has partially worked, I think it is time to update and revisit. The recent price action in the ESA suggests a volatility coil is building up; it is best...
This is further to my earlier post on ESA: Make or break it. Since then the ESA has broken down from the continuation wedge and appears to have found support on the 200-DMA which coincides with a 78.6% retracement. Given the heavy data dump coming out this week and the US heading in earnings season, I would play it on the safe side to close shorts and look for...
ESA has been trading in an ascending wedge since the Feb correction and is now testing the 78.6% retracement level; Just like back in 1929 and 1987. I don't like the odds here so would be neutral...ok, bearish if you put a gun to my head. Trumpard is making me worried.