Weekly Plan ES Futures 8-148/14 Weekly Plan. ES Futures September
Weekly Pivot is 4,505
Targets
4,532
4,560
4,592
Targets
4,478
4,456
4,417
Now trading at 4,484
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 4,484
Weekly pivot at 4,505
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
One time framing down in daily + weekly chart. Weekly ends if 4544.75 is breached.
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe
Esfutures
Weekly Plan ES Futures 7/24/202307/24 Weekly Plan. ES Futures September
Weekly Pivot is 4,560
Targets
4,584
4,609
4,637
Targets
4,540
4,513
4,474
Now trading at 4,573
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 4,564.25
Weekly pivot at 4,560
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
One time framing up OTFU weekly. End is 4536.25 is breached.
4 day balance in daily chart. H4709.25, HB 4577, L4545
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe
Weekly Plan ES Futures 6/19/202306/19 Weekly Plan. ES Futures September
Weekly Pivot is 4,445
Targets
4,487
4,510
4,540
Targets
4,415
4,381
4,351
Now trading at 4,447
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 4,288
Weekly pivot at 4,260
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
One time framing up OTFU in all timeframes.
Daily OTFU ends at 4451.
Weekly OTFU ends at 4351.25
Monthly OTFU ends at 4062.25
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
CME_MINI:ES1!
Weekly Plan ES Futures 6/4/202306/04 Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 4,260
Targets
4,300
4,327
4,346
Targets
4,230
4,194
4,165
Now trading at 4,284
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 4,288
Weekly pivot at 4,260
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
One time framing up OTFU in all timeframes.
Daily ends at 4249, weekly ends at 4174 and monthly ends at 4062.
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
Weekly Plan Recap and Balance Zone DiscussionIn this video I am discussion last week's plan and how it performed. Please pay special attention to the tweets linked to the chart highlighting trade entries and targets accomplished.
These were the targets and pivot.
Weekly Pivot is 4,194
Targets
4,240
4,260
4,300
Targets
4,172
4,137
4,114
Weekly Plan ES Futures05/30 Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 4,194
Targets
4,240
4,260
4,300
Targets
4,172
4,137
4,114
Now trading at 4,241
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 4,239.75
Weekly pivot at 4,194
Each weekly target.
SPX - at least 10% upside upcomingSeems like SPX has found the base for another push up to 4400+ zone in wave C of larger B. It may take up to 2 months to complete this structure.
I count recent choppy action as wave 1 taking shape of expanding diagonal, it may still do one more spike up before retracement in 2. 3840 should be a stop-loss here.
ES Futures Weekly Plan 5-1505/15 Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 4,150
Targets
1. 4,188
2. 4,220
3. 4,240
Targets
1. 4,114
2. 4,090
3. 4,061
Now trading at 4,146
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 4,132.5
2. Weekly pivot at 4,150
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. Balancing in daily timeframe. H4169.5, L4111.5, HB4114.
2. Balancing in weekly timeframe. H4206, L4,062, HB 4,134
3. Balance in monthly timeframe. H4208, L3814, HB4020.
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe.
Cracking the Code: Analyzing SPY Trends Across Multiple TFLets take a deep dive into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and examine its trends across weekly, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts. Using technical analysis tools and strategies, we uncover insights into how SPY is behaving on different time scales and what that might mean for traders. Whether you're new to trading or a seasoned pro, you'll find valuable insights and actionable tips in this comprehensive analysis of SPY price action.
End of Week Wrap! SPX, ES & Leading DiagonalAs the trading week comes to a close, market participants have witnessed a slow yet steady rise in SPX futures. I'm going to dive into the advantages of trading futures, analyze the recent price action in ES futures and the SPX index, and discuss the leading diagonal pattern that played out in the market. I will also provide insights into what to expect for the week ahead and share some advice on trading cautiously.
The Advantages of Trading Futures
Futures trading offers several benefits to traders, one of which is the absence of theta decay. Theta decay refers to the decline in the value of an option as time passes, which can erode profits in options trading. With futures, traders can benefit from even slight movements in their favor, making it easier to secure profits. Be careful for futures rollover dates, which TradingView conveniently places on the chart for your reference.
Recent Price Action in ES Futures and SPX Index
The ES futures experienced an upward movement, reaching the 4000 mark and hitting the resistance level at 4010. On the other hand, the SPX index did not quite make it to 4000. However, it is possible that it could reach that level next week, potentially after a lower open on Sunday evening. As the market conditions evolve, I will be closely monitoring ES for a move up to 4020.
The Leading Diagonal Pattern in Action
As anticipated, the leading diagonal pattern played out, and after breaking out, the price action briefly retested the trendline before moving up to 4000. This pattern indicates that the market is poised for a significant trend reversal.
Expectations for the Week Ahead
For the upcoming week, I anticipate that the market may open slightly lower, though not significantly. Shorting the market at this stage should be approached with caution and considered only for short-term day trades. After a potential pullback, I expect the market to make a move up towards the 4020 level later in the week before encountering another rejection. That is where I will consider adding short exposure. However, predicting such a scenario far into the future comes with inherent uncertainties, so it is wise to revisit my hypothesis next week and adjust as necessary.
Trade Carefully and Stay Informed
As we venture into the new trading week, it is crucial to trade carefully and stay abreast of market developments. By understanding the advantages of futures trading, closely monitoring price action in ES futures and the SPX index, and analyzing patterns such as the leading diagonal that unfolded over the last 2 days, you can better navigate the financial markets and make informed decisions.
As market conditions evolve, it is essential to continually reassess your strategies and adapt accordingly. By trading cautiously and staying informed, you can minimize risk and maximize your chances of success in this ever-changing landscape.
Deciphering: Analyzing Leading Diagonal Patterns and Key LevelsThe financial markets are a complex ecosystem where a multitude of factors influence the movement of securities. One of the key aspects of understanding market dynamics is recognizing patterns and monitoring key levels that can indicate possible future trends. In this article, I will discuss the leading diagonal pattern, its importance in technical analysis, and compare the ES futures to the SPX cash index. I will also delve into the significance of key levels and how they are essential for identifying support and resistance.
Leading Diagonal: A Brief Overview
A leading diagonal is a specific pattern in the Elliott Wave Theory, a form of technical analysis used to predict market trends by identifying recurring wave patterns. The leading diagonal pattern is typically found in the initial wave of a new trend and is characterized by a five-wave structure, with each wave subdividing into three smaller waves. This creates a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern, indicating that the market is likely to experience a significant trend reversal.
In my analysis of the ES futures and the SPX cash index, it appears that we have observed a leading diagonal pattern, which may suggest a short-term bottom and a potential upside move in the coming weeks.
Comparing ES Futures and SPX Cash Index
When analyzing market trends, it is crucial to understand that different instruments may display different chart patterns. In our case, the ES futures and SPX cash index exhibit a disparity due to contango, a situation where the futures price is higher than the spot price. This results in the futures chart looking somewhat different when compared to the cash index. Nevertheless, it is essential to take both into consideration when making predictions about the market's direction.
The Importance of Key Levels
Key levels in technical analysis are price points that serve as significant support or resistance areas for a financial instrument. They are essential for identifying potential entry and exit points in trades and can help determine if a trend will continue or reverse.
In my analysis of the ES futures, we are currently sitting at the 3967 level, which is an important support level. If the market breaks below this level, it could drop down to the next key level around 3925 before making a corrective move up to the 4000-4010 area. Observing these levels allows you to make informed decisions on when to enter or exit positions based on market behavior.
In the current scenario, the leading diagonal pattern suggests that we may see a short-term bottom soon, followed by a corrective move up and potential further downside. Keeping an eye on key levels, such as 3967 and 3925, will help us determine potential support and resistance areas, which in turn can guide our trading decisions. Moving forward, it is important to continually monitor the market and adjust your analysis based on new information, always taking into account both the futures and cash indices to get a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics since futures trades ~23/5 and the cash indicies do not.
By staying vigilant and utilizing the principles of technical analysis, such as leading diagonal patterns and key levels, you can better navigate the ever-changing landscape of the financial markets. This approach, combined with other fundamental and technical indicators, can provide a solid foundation for making informed decisions and managing risk in an often unpredictable environment.
Market now looking to go BearishWith the massive selloff in the market today and the great setup on the VIX it is looking like this little bull run could now be over.
In my 2 chart pics I have the daily charts of the SPY and the VXX. This looks very obvious that the VXX is ready to spike which will send the market lower.
It is always important when determining where the market is going, to look at the vix. If the vxx is bearish the market is likely bullish, if the vxx is bullish the market will likely be bearish. It will mostly be opposite.
So right now the VXX is setting up very bullish for Friday. I will be mostly looking for bearish setups to trade on Friday for the top stocks and indicess
Now it is also important to view the futures over night because they could easily turn around a rally setting up for a gap up in the SPY the next day.
Micro ES eMini - Back in the same areaCME_MINI:MESH2023
For the ES Micro (and full) contract, we pushed down a little further from yesterdays low (PDL), and made a u-turn back up around previous day close (todays open price zone).
So now what?
Big market makers digesting this weeks Fed's transcript, over the weekend?
I think so...big moves coming next CBOE opening bell
After maxing out trends, we've started to see the downward moveSo I held my trade and walked away from the S&P for a bit to short the 6E (the Euro). It netted me about $3000 the last couple days, and that also gave me time to let my trade begin to form here. I closed out my 4140 short at just below 4110 yesterday, for a net profit of just over $1500.
Certainly not the move I wanted, but the move I ended up with. I still believe ultimately that we will head lower to that 3900 range I've mentioned, but we need to move down below a daily higher high trendline before we can get there.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4120 Downtrend (2/7/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4143 Downtrend (2/3/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/6/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
I could see a brief bounce here, but nothing that will stick and I believe we are headed lower and will have another down day. I'm not ready yet to take another position at this point though.
Economic Data;
Fed Powell speaks today at 12:40 EST. There are a few other pieces of data but nothing I think might cause huge spikes in the market.
The Jobs data from last Friday should be a clear signal that the labor market is entirely too strong and no rate cuts are coming. I'm waiting for the market to understand this and stop living in la la land. This rally reminds me of last summers rally.
Earnings;
I scroll through the Earnings of the day. There are still a decent amount of companies reporting, but none with the weight of last week. I do think some of the companies that had bizarre rallies will have the poor earnings and forward guidance really settle in this week and lose much of the momentum they had and come back to reality this week. Earnings overall have really not been very good, even though we've rallied through them.
Overall my sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Felt good to get away from the S&P for a couple of days. My risk management plan strictly states when I get frustrated I need to walk away. I did this by going to another asset to trade.
You should remember your risk management plan as well. Safe trading!
ES quick updateI will leave an SPX update for the other site. But here is a sneak-peak of what I expect going into the CPI release on Thursday and next week
Enjoy, and don't get trapped in case we really spike up on CPI numbers on Thursday and crap from there.
And don't blame anyone if you are short and get stopped on CPI release or try to chase the market and go long on Thursday am; you have been warned here.