ES 1h is bullish, watching triangle to breakThis still can chop chop till end of the day, but its getting close for a good squeeze.
Im out from longs at 3681, looking to re-enter, will check EOD closing
Esfutures
ES morning updatePCE numbers were out, was a nice quick dump but no continuation as it came better then expected imo.
That alone takes the crash scenario out of the picture for today.
All eyes on 3745ES and 3623ES here in pre-open market.
Still want my 3580-88 level hit and hold. Will be looking to buy longs today and exit swing short position as per plan outlined before
Its Fri, dont get trapped.
ES and NQ bull flagging hereWatching the bull flag, ideal target is 3680ES
Lets push, going to enter longs with a stop under the last lows here
ES progress chartI slept in today and this is what I was worried about from my last night NQ update, the EOM sell:
There is a chance we see 3580 level today and if it closes below 3600 I think we gap down and see another 100 points cut tomorrow am!
Be really careful with sizing on the long side till tomorrow's lows.
I will be all out from my swing MNQ short tomorrow and will be looking for a long if we see 3500 or below tomorrow.
Since its usually doesnt bottom on Fridays, next week bounce should be muted imo but a drift upwards to the 6-7th high would make a perfect sense.
Also watch out OCT EOM can be a good repeat of what we see now
ES moment of truthNeeds to break above that orange line and stay there on 1h candle if it continue into tomorrow.
Im short at 3733 and will add at 41-43 with a hard stop above
ES stopped at its first good support trendline, SPX broke itCheck the orange line and see a link for the SPX chart below.
ES stopped at the support trendline (we broke out from on Jul 27th and now re-tested from the top)
Expect this to be a good support for at least this week.
SPX already broke it but stopped at smaller trendline from Sep 1 and 6th lows.
Apparently I can post 10 charts per day on this website and not more, so I will try to include links to my charts in my updates.
But this is very annoying, especially on days like today, I need an interactive trading platform so we all can share our charts and chat during the day.
I will do a separate SPX update with levels for tomorrow in an hour or so
But want to mention one thing:
- Usually the price reverses fully into Fri after the FOMC day.
Tomorrow is a directional change till Fri, expect a good size bounce and then lower into the 27th low.
After that low we should rally into early Oct high and make a final low Oct 28-31st (I will mention my main target in the SPX update)
ES looking to buy AHs retracement to 3900Very important close above 3886SPX, should push higher tomorrow imo.
Im planning on buying ES longs for a trip to 3935 or so at min
Looking for a high before FOMC and low by the 29th
ES must hold todays lows or at least 3900 levelYou can see how close it is for a breakdown, this in idea should bounce into Monday and then continue lower.
But tomorrow is quarterly OPEX and most of the hedges are going offline, so much wider swings should unleash.
This has air all the way till 3800 on the ES, so be careful if long, get ready to flip if it starts going
Main resistance and supports were outlined in my latest SPX update
P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!
ES 1h cloud held the bottomLets see if we get to test the bottom of the Bollinger or 4060-80ES
It should hold and continue lower to re-test Thursday's lows as well as close the gap
The pressure is down and if we close on the lows today, this will continue selling into the 15th low!
If we satisfy 3955SPX today or even test lower and close above 3955SPX, then it could be a good sign of a local bottom
Needs below 4005-4000SPX for more waterfall
ES close to its main resiatance at 4115Im going to short 4115 level tomorrow am or if we get there in pre-market am
Ideally we test my 4125-35SPX (4115-25ES) tomorrow and retrace hard into the 13th low
P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!
ES TONIGHT PATHWAYIm looking for3965 test and blast to 4015-20 tomorrow am.
4020ES and 4025SPX is a very heavy resistance, expect a rejection with some pullback and then another push to go over it.
Im lightly short for the 4065ES target, will flip long from 4062-64 level
P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!
ES is trying to breakout hereMain resistance is 4020ES and 4025SPX
Needs to close above 3960 for tomorrow to continue
ES is in triangle, not looking bullish to my eyesI don't like ES and the NQ being in triangle, I think it will be broken soon.
Will be entering with short on the break, target is the same 3840-50 might even stretch to 3830ES.
Again IF we break to the downside.
P.S. Don't forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!
ES chart, nothing new since last ES updateI should of pay attention to this chart more, perfect hit of the 61.8 on this low, has more room to go compare to the SPX
This can spike down on Monday and reverse into the opening, so a crazy double reversal Tuesday is very possible!
ES to follow through the Fri moveI really want to see a low made pre-market and reverse into the open, that would be very bullish!
4160-75 is the main resistance one and one more to follow at 4200, that should cap any move up.
Going to buy longs tonight and exit ES short around 4k, if we get there.
I will be shorting that move up from 4160-70 and then 4200 for a move down to 3920-50.
Im thinking there is a good chance of this up move to be extened into the Sep OPEX after the upcoming low. Can get above 4300 again or make a lower low, all depends on how low we go on this move down.
Support is at 3990-4005ES for tonight.
ES AHs updatePerfect 4200 hit, I had few running from 4148, some was exited at 4172 and 80, one at 4196.5. Have only 2 left, will exit at BE or if we extend to 4210-20.
Im short NQ after the close.
Nothing broken, Im looking at it as another bear rally. EOM will be quite surprising.
Its def frustrating for many who short every top, have stops!!! Always hedge! If resistance broken, flip to the long side, its that simple.
My internet problems cost me 3k in un-managed stops, was able to cover half before the close, but still not fun
Tomorrow is a weekly closing, as well as PCE numbers, last 2 times we sold off hard on those, will the history repeat?
Im betting on down, bought some Aug 31 puts as lotto trade as well as I have NQ shorts running.
Its a directional change tomorrow, only 2 scenario, it will just continue the same pathway and we go up to close the gap or just open down and make a reversal.
Make your bets, I made mine. Its a game we all play, never 100% but must win more then loose.
Again, always have stops!
Will do SPX later tonight, when I see updated numbers and cycles.
ES exit all longs, now short, tight stopExit longs here, short with a stop above am highs, SPX still can stretch into my second target at 4177-9
ES has to hold 4140-41 and press to 4160Must hold this level and especially 4140 to press to 4160-65
Im flat, will be watching the close to make a decision for tomorrow.
ES has the same very visual bear flagI want to point out this bear flag, both on the ES and the NQ, perfect fib alignment into 12703-20 zone.
Tomorrow is a panic cycle day, will it be a gap down and reversal or we just break down?
My timing for the low is still the 25th and possibly 29th
I like 4069-80 zone hit and hold, failure to hold it will get us down to 3930-50 zone before it's over.
ES must hold 4202.75ES must hold number is 4202.75, below we should see a dip down to 4175-90 zone tomorrow
Low risk R/R with a tight stop here below 4202.75. I will be looking for a small long tomorrow am if this number will be penetrated.
Im long from 4203.5 with a very tight stop
ES gapped down as expected, must hold levels for tomorrowMust hold level for tomorrow is 4172-90.
We must penetrate 4200 or 11th low to mark the temp (if not maj) high on Aug 16th
Ideal target is at 4045-60ES on this move lower and the bottom timing is on 25-26th of Aug.
Rally after into the 2nd of Sep high!
I dont want to be long going into the Labour Day weekend; market, historically, tops around the Labour Weekend.
SPX next to update with detailed notes to those who are on my email list. Will update that chart tomorrow am here
ES AHs updateES broke the uptrend small channel off am lows, good sign there. Its also jumped out its upper bull trend channel, must watch for possible fake out. If it means business for the bulls, I will trade the re-test of the trendline in am.
If you look at the chart, you can see that we hit 1.618 to the penny and the price is hovering right at the extension zone. I say it's a very important place to continue or reject, it seems we hit the wall here imo.
Im swing short here and have no stops at the moment, will be watching for the breakout to hold or fail
