ES has to hold 4140-41 and press to 4160Must hold this level and especially 4140 to press to 4160-65
Im flat, will be watching the close to make a decision for tomorrow.
Esfutures
ES has the same very visual bear flagI want to point out this bear flag, both on the ES and the NQ, perfect fib alignment into 12703-20 zone.
Tomorrow is a panic cycle day, will it be a gap down and reversal or we just break down?
My timing for the low is still the 25th and possibly 29th
I like 4069-80 zone hit and hold, failure to hold it will get us down to 3930-50 zone before it's over.
ES must hold 4202.75ES must hold number is 4202.75, below we should see a dip down to 4175-90 zone tomorrow
Low risk R/R with a tight stop here below 4202.75. I will be looking for a small long tomorrow am if this number will be penetrated.
Im long from 4203.5 with a very tight stop
ES gapped down as expected, must hold levels for tomorrowMust hold level for tomorrow is 4172-90.
We must penetrate 4200 or 11th low to mark the temp (if not maj) high on Aug 16th
Ideal target is at 4045-60ES on this move lower and the bottom timing is on 25-26th of Aug.
Rally after into the 2nd of Sep high!
I dont want to be long going into the Labour Day weekend; market, historically, tops around the Labour Weekend.
SPX next to update with detailed notes to those who are on my email list. Will update that chart tomorrow am here
ES AHs updateES broke the uptrend small channel off am lows, good sign there. Its also jumped out its upper bull trend channel, must watch for possible fake out. If it means business for the bulls, I will trade the re-test of the trendline in am.
If you look at the chart, you can see that we hit 1.618 to the penny and the price is hovering right at the extension zone. I say it's a very important place to continue or reject, it seems we hit the wall here imo.
Im swing short here and have no stops at the moment, will be watching for the breakout to hold or fail
ES is sitting at the support zoneES is sitting at the support zone, breaking below will get us down to 3630-60 zone quick.
C&H pattern failed, no good news to the bulls till lower lows next week imo
In case of a H&S pattern, we should see 200 points plus below the neck zone - green support line.
That would get us to my ideal target zone 3500 and 3555-50SPX
ES possible H&S formation, 3799 has to go for l lower to be seenIm expecting the am lows to hold and rip back to 3880 and ideally 3915
Should top on 7-8th and continue move lower into mid of the month as per my weekend update
ES is setting up a breakdown support testnote the broken down rising trendline resistance. Im expecting it to get tested and rejected hard with new lows mid July (13-14th), ideally we test 3500 and hold it.
The longer term target is 3209SPX now
ES hit 50% retracement of the lowsTaking a small short going into the weekend, will be looking to buy a retracement on Sunday/Monday pre-market
ES A VERY CLEAR IHSI'm on a seminar and not really following the market last few days.
Its a very cleat IHS on the ES to me and if we wont breakdown today, tomorrow can gap up.
Target is in 3940-50 zone
ES BOUNCED OF THE MAIN RESISTANCE, EXPECT A TRIANGLE INTO THUES couldn't break the main resistance, Im short with a stop just above it.
Expect a Triangle trade into Thursday, ideally we see around 3900 on the 23rd/24th
ES has a bit more clear pathway to the downside could target Target confluence is at 3587ES, very deep but can get there in no time, crazy market!
This will turn today/tomorrow, otherwise cycles are inverted, crazy times!
If anyone is riding the futs, just trail it and keep it rolling on the spikes again and again till it stops working
I will leave it this the way it is.
ES must break the resistance line next resistance is 3710!Should squeeze here an now or we get back to the lows again.
3710 becomes the first maj resistance (held the other day)
The bottoming timing window is today or tomorrow am, very close for a significant relive rally, ideally back to 3900 gap
closing above 3710 today and tomorrow will be a good sign of the temp low being in place!
ES looking for a green close - Main support to hold is 3748ES targets 3818
This is a fifth attempt to post
Main support to hold is 3748
SPX /ES Volatility 02 June 2022 SPX /ES Volatility 02 June 2022
The current percentile of SPX /ES is around 71.83%.
The current implied volatility is around 26.05 -> which translates into a daily movement of 1.64%
At the same time, this translates in an aproximate +-67$ movement
For this we can assume close to 85% probability of efficiency based on the last years data.
Based on this our channel for today is going to be, assuming the opening price is 4100
TOP 4100 + 65 ~= 4165
BOT 4100 - 65 ~= 4035
This strategy is perfectly suited for an iron condor
At the same for those that are looking for entry points in case they want to go long call/put or a reverse iron condor,
instead of normal iron condor we can make use of next data:
Based on the last years, we can expect that the asset is going to move more than 0.41% which translates into a +- 20$ movements.
And this comes with a 75-80% probability based on the last years.
TOP 4100 + 20 ~= 4120=> as an entry point for long where we can use the opening price as a stop loss
BOT 4100 - 20 ~= 4080 => as an entry point for short where we can use the opening price as a stop loss
ES - Bears are showing up again
Price tried to break the key resistance 4390 today and failed. 4340 was seemed to hold *barely*
below 4330, 4270 is likely to get tested again. this zone has held up thrice since Feb 27, so weak support.
below we go stright to 4200.
still time, but bull case is not so upbeat right now. Be careful adding longs.
countertrade - if 4270 holds, it should be on some news - which should start a squeeze that could push price all the way up to 4450. (ONLY IF)
SP500 views POST FOMC rate hike...A view at the SP500 priced in Euros to give anticipatory clues as to potential moves to close out the 2022 1st Quarter...
Breaking down where the stock market is goingLooking at the daily chart on the ES futures contract (S&P) Today was a big day with price pulling up and holding the lows form Feb 24.
The market has been on a crazy bull run since March 2009 so seeing this pullback is no surprise really, in fact I am surprised it didn't come earlier. Of course there was the pretty short-term collapse in 2020 but then the strong reversal we see in the chart here.
4800 was the highs and now resistance, along with 4700. You can see on Jan 18th price breaking down from the trendline and really confirming a trend change.
For the bulls it is very important what happened today but we will need to see price taking out the 4300 and 4400 walls for me to be confident that the market is turning bullish again.
Last week we saw a similar move only to see price pullback again. The key though is holding that Feb 24th low.
Let's see if price is above 4300 by the end of this week.
$SPY and $ES_F I try my best to stay away from "call-out" type posts because that's not really what I'm about. That being said, I'm doing one today in conjunction with an educational post because they fit together pretty well.
Note: on the main chart I'm submitting with this, the topmost moving average (where price is resting as I write this) is the 200HMA using daily candles. The bottommost moving average is the 200HMA using monthly candles.
SHORT VERSION
The short version is that I'm looking for a short entry on CME_MINI:ES1! and/or AMEX:SPY .
THE LONG VERSION
In roughly the past 10 years, ES futures and SPY have fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly candle a handful of times. My data plan on TradingView I guess doesn't give me far enough data to show it, but on my other charting platform you can see that as far back as 2011 almost every single time ES has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has been caught by the 200HMA on the monthly. 100% of the time that price has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has resulted in a sustained period of volatility.
Currently, ES has not breached this sufficiently but it looks to be close. What I'm looking for as confirmation before entering is:
the weekly candle for the week of 1/23/2022 opens below the 200HMA on the weekly candle
daily volume on ES has not fallen below 1.2mn (click the related idea for my overview of using volume to help time when the bottom may be in)
If this criteria is met, I'm going short on ES selling short contracts but also buying puts on SPY as well. While you don't want to buy calls as a way to "buy the dip" due to the impact of elevated TVC:VIX after a sell-off, you may want to buy puts if you are expecting a sell-off due to the impact that an exploding VIX will have on your options premiums.
To be clear, I am not calling for some catastrophic market crash. I'm calling for a technical correction to a regularly established baseline that's all.
PT 1 for me would be 4100. PT 2 for me would be 3400. For context 1 contract for CME_MINI:MES1! (the little brother to ES) nets you $5 per point. If I were to enter at 4400 then by PT 1 (if I'm right), that results in $1500/contract excluding fees.
CLARIFYING STATEMENTS
This is a play I'm entering with or without posting this. If you decide to follow along, you're making a conscious decision of your own. If you decide to enter and this fails, you will get no sympathy from me, I will award you no points, and my God have mercy on your soul.
ES: Trend ContinuationHello everyone, I'd like to share with you todays ES trading levels.
As drawn in the chart we can see, that the price broke the structure of an uptrend and set new LL and LH yesterday.
We want go with the flow and are looking for a trend continuation and some cheaper prices.
Please let me know your thoughs and if you like the idea.
Triangle formation in $ES_F, likely to break up. $ES has been chopping and trapping traders on both sides but ultimately staying at the same place since the last few days. Until, the triangle breaks out, expect more chop. Bias is bullish for a breakout.
SPX (Corrective Structure) Expanding TriangleBullish tilt
1) Correction phase
-Structure: Expanding triangle
2) Fib levels intersecting w bottom trendline
-high probability setup
Alternate analysis - bull flag forming
Key level of 4446 is still holding so we will maintain the bullish-bias till structure is broken.
Personal Opinion
a) Nimble trader and create "what-if" scenario
b) Once an analysis is done, risk management must be in place
c) Patience is key
