ESM2024 (S&P500) target hit, buyside at 5121 taken :)Out buyside target from yesterdays related analysis, ESM2024 5121, got in fact hit overnight :)
ESM2024
ESM2024 (S&P500) buyside taken, run to 5121 still in the cardsBuyside at 5095 has been taken. If we do not drop hard from here and the candles body on the 1h closes above 5102, we think that the next upside target will be 5021 in ESM2024.
ESM2024 long trade, stop and take profit in place ESM2024 long trade, stop and take profit in place as seen on the chart.
This is no financial advise! Do not risk real money on any idea published by us.
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at key resistance after yesterday's recovery day.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5040 (major), 5032, 5020 (major)
Major Supports: 4996 (major), 4959 (major), 4938 (major), 4903 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5057 (major), 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5115 (major)
Major Resistances: 5129 (major), 5141 (major), 5167 (major), 5186-90 (major)
Trading Strategy
The 5040 Battleground Continues to be critical. Observe for breakouts or breakdowns with close attention.
Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5040 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5032 or on major supports (4959, 4938). Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5081 and particularly 5102 for shorting. A breakdown below 5020 could open up downside targets.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5040 zone is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081/5102 zone for a sustained recovery attempt.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5057 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5020 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4975 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 23rd, 2024
Economic Environment
US GDP growth and the impact of interest rates on corporate America.
IMF projections for global economic growth and inflation expectations.
Bond market signals regarding Federal Reserve policy.
Market Analysis
Upcoming economic data releases: GDP estimate and key inflation measure.
Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of earnings reports, economic data, and the critical battle at the 5040 resistance. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears at a crossroads. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, and market reaction to earnings reports and economic data will be crucial.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 4996-5000 (major), 4990, 4975 (major), 4966
Major Supports: 4958 (major), 4937 (major), 4904-08 (major), 4878 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5013, 5027 (major), 5039, 5045 (major)
Major Resistances: 5081 (major), 5108 (major), 5125-30 (major), 5146-50 (major), 5190 (major)
Trading Strategy
Geopolitical Awareness: Remain vigilant about weekend news developments and potential market impact.
Long Opportunities: Due to potential volatility, exercise caution with long positions. Prioritize bids at 4975 (a reaction may signal buying strength) or on failed breakdowns of overnight lows at 4963. For deeper longs, focus on major supports (4937, 4904), utilizing the knife-catch protocol.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5045, 5081, and particularly 5108 for shorting. A breakdown below 4958 could open up downside targets.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to regain control by reclaiming 5045 and pushing back into the red channel/flag around 5108 for a sustained recovery attempt.
Holding Support: Defending the 4996-5000 zone is encouraging for bulls. If 4958 holds on a retest, it may signal a relief bounce.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5013 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 4958 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4937 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 22nd, 2024
Economic Environment
IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and expectations for policy easing.
Verizon earnings report provides insights into the telecommunications sector.
Focus on big tech earnings and their potential impact on market trends.
Monitoring of economic indicators: commodity currencies, Asian shares, European currencies, and industrial output data from Poland, Taiwan, and China.
Market Focus
Sector analysis: Focus on communication services and energy sectors.
Upcoming economic events: employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving.
Additional Market News
Earnings season: Focus on major bank reports.
Regulatory and legal updates: SEC activities and discussions on college debt and retirement planning.
Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of geopolitical events, earnings reports, and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you have any further questions or would like changes made!
Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at the critical 5045 support zone . A decisive break in either direction will set the tone for the next market move.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5044-46 (major), 5039, 5033
Major Supports: 5020, 5013 (major), 5000, 4990-95 (major), 4959 (major), 4937 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5054 (major), 5066, 5077-5082 (major)
Major Resistances: 5112-5115 (major), 5150-55 (major), 5177-80 (major), 5203 (major)
Trading Strategy
Focus on the 5045 Zone: This zone has become a battleground. Observe closely for breakouts or breakdowns, as these will trigger the next directional move.
Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5045 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5039 or only at major support levels, particularly 5013 and 4990-95. Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of the 5077-82 zone, or more reliable setups at 5112-5115 and 5150-55 for shorts. A breakdown below 5039 offers short potential, targeting 5013.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Bulls need to defend the 5045 zone to maintain control.
Relief Bounce: If 5045 holds, a bounce to 5082 and potentially 5112-15 is possible, with further upside potential to 5150-55 if momentum is sustained.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5054/5060 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5039 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5013 and potentially 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting.
News: Top Stories for April 19th, 2024
Economic Environment
Inflation remains a factor despite a decline.
Corporate profits show resilience.
Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US.
Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news.
Reminder: The market is reacting to the battle at the 5045 level. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Mixed, with traders weighing the implications of inflation, economic signals, and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5066, 5060, 5054
Major Supports: 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5000-5005 (major), 4990, 4966, 4932-36 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5082-77 (major), 5090, 5103 (major), 5115-5120 (major)
Major Resistances: 5148-50 (major), 5170-75 (major), 5191, 5224, 5287 (major)
Trading Strategy
Focus on Key Levels: The market is sandwiched between critical support at 5045-47 and resistance at 5082-77. Breakouts in either direction will determine the next directional move.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5045-47 with failed breakdowns, or at major supports (5000-5005 if reached). Prioritize knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts on backtests of the 5082-77 zone, 5115-20, or 5148-50. A failure of 5045-47 opens the downside, with potential shorts below 5037.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to reclaim 5077-82 for a strong signal, then potentially 5115-20.
Holding Support: Continued defense of the 5045-47 trendline is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5077-82 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045-47 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting.
News: Top Stories for April 18th, 2024
Economic Environment
Inflation declines but remains a factor in market analysis.
Corporate profits show resilience.
Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US.
Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news.
Global Markets
IMF Global Financial Stability Report discusses market optimism and expected policy easing.
Reminder: The market is reacting to key levels and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major)
Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5097 (major), 5108 (major), 5115, 5126-29 (major), 5155 (major)
Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5188-90 (major), 5225-30 (major), 5280-83 (major)
Trading Strategy
Monitoring Fed Commentary: Stay updated on further statements from Federal Reserve officials as they will influence market direction.
Range-Bound Trading: The 5082-5115 zone remains a choppy range. Focus on failed breakdowns within this zone, or holding position runners.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5091 (after multiple successful tests), reclaims of 5082, or failed breakdowns at 5076. Knife-catch protocol applies for any deeper longs, particularly at 5046-51.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts if backtesting breakdown zones like 5126-29, 5155, or 5171. Prioritize a failure of 5082 on the short side.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5126-29, then 5171 to signal a potential short-term bottom.
Holding Support: A sustained hold of 5082 could lead to a bounce and backtests of the resistances listed above.
Adding on Strength: Breaks above 5108 after acceptance suggest potential for more upside.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain short-term control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5082 is a warning, with shorts below 5068 targeting 5046-51 (where runners would likely be exited). As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first.
News: Top Stories for April 17th, 2024
Federal Reserve Focus
Jerome Powell's comments emphasize that inflation remains above the Fed's target, hinting at a delay in interest rate cuts.
Investor expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted, with a maximum of three cuts now anticipated, starting in June at the earliest.
Market Performance & Sectors
S&P 500 hits new all-time highs but experiences volatility following Federal Reserve commentary.
Technology stocks, especially those in the AI sector, continue to outperform.
Communication services and energy sectors receive a high percentage of analyst buy ratings.
Earnings & Corporate News
Big banks kick off the earnings season, providing insights into the financial sector's health.
United Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays and adjusts its strategy.
International Economic & Monetary Policies
President Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese steel aim to protect domestic industry.
ECB plans for near-term rate cuts raise questions about the European economic outlook.
Additional Market Updates
Cryptocurrency market dynamics, including Bitcoin halving cycles.
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and their potential economic implications.
Chinese economic growth.
Housing market trends and government tax policies in Canada.
Reminder: The market is reacting to Federal Reserve commentary. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079
Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39 (major), 5163-67 (major).
Major Resistances: 5178-80 (major), 5195, 5205-07 (major), 5222 (major)
Trading Strategy
Geopolitical Risk: Continue to monitor headlines related to the Iran/Israel situation for potential market impacts.
Adaptability: Be prepared for rapid changes in market direction and prioritize risk management.
Long Opportunities: Focus on potential longs above 5102-05 after failed breakdowns at 5092. Consider a test and reclaim of 5115 for an entry if the move is direct. Knife-catch protocol applies for longs at 5048-52 if those are reached.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of breakdown levels. 5136-39 and 5163-67 are key areas for potential shorts.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5136, then 5163-67 to set a potential bottom.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5092 triggers the next downside leg. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting at 5088, targeting 5052 for complete profit-taking, or level-to-level profit-takes on the way.
News: Top Stories for April 16th, 2024
Geopolitical Crisis: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel continue to dominate headlines and drive market uncertainty.
Economic Outlook
IMF World Economic Outlook: Projections for slower global growth with inflation expected to decrease.
US Labor Market: Focus on the impact of an aging workforce and the potential counter to early retirement trends.
Inflation & Fed Rates
CPI report signals persistent inflation, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts.
Treasury yields react to inflation data.
Corporate & Market News
Tesla faces skepticism about self-driving capabilities and a new round of layoffs.
Market performance analysis: Tech stocks lead gains, bond market reacts to rate concerns.
Real estate market sends mixed signals across different geographies.
Investment Outlooks
Financial institutions provide a range of outlook reports with varying predictions.
Cryptocurrency: Ether and Bitcoin ETFs perform well, prominent investors weigh in.
Reminder: The geopolitical situation remains a major wildcard. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to adjust your trading strategy quickly.
Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Highly uncertain due to major geopolitical headline risk over the weekend. Expect significant volatility and potential for large gaps up or down at the Sunday open.
Important Note: The escalating tension between Iran and Israel has the potential to cause significant market disruptions. BE PREPARED for a wide range of outcomes, substantial gaps on the open, and rapidly changing market conditions.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5163 (major), 5155, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major)
Major Supports: 5120, 5115, 5108, 5102-5097 (major), 5091, 5082 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5177 (major), 5185, 5192-95 (major), 5203 (major)
Major Resistances: 5218 (major), 5228-30 (major), 5245 (major), 5262
Trading Strategy
Weekend Headlines: Be prepared for anything related to the Iran/Israel situation. This news will dominate market reaction.
Adaptability is Key: Market conditions could change rapidly, prioritize flexibility and risk management.
Sunday Open: Focus on how the market opens and reacts to the news. Large gaps are possible in either direction.
Long Opportunities: Due to the high risk, only consider longs after the initial reaction and if a stable support zone forms. Potential bids at 5163, reclaiming 5155, or (depending on the open) reclaiming 5177. Emphasis on failed breakdowns.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of any breakdown levels if a strong sell-off occurs. Potentially 5177, 5219, or 5228 if those levels are reached.
Knife-Catch Mode: If necessary, use the knife-catch protocol for longs, with small size and emphasis on failed-breakdowns.
Bull Case
De-escalation: A move towards de-escalation or resolution of the Iran situation could lead to a sharp rebound.
Reclaiming 5177: If 5177 is reclaimed with acceptance above, bulls may drive a recovery towards targets of 5195, 5202, 5219.
Bear Case
Escalation of Conflict: Continued escalation of tensions could lead to a significant market sell-off.
Breakdown of 5163: A failure of 5163 opens up downside targets. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown, then consider shorting for a move down the levels.
News: Top Stories for April 15th, 2024
Geopolitical Crisis:
Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel dominate headlines and overshadow all other news.
Potential repercussions for the global economy, oil prices, and markets.
Impact on Market Outlook:
Uncertainty and volatility dominate the April outlook.
Key economic dates and reports may be less impactful given the news focus.
Earnings Reports:
Earnings season continues, but market focus may be diverted by the geopolitical situation.
Other Market and Economic News:
Monitor secondary news sources for updates on the Iran/Israel situation and potential market impacts.
Reminder: The weekend geopolitical developments introduce extreme uncertainty into the markets. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to quickly adapt your trading strategy.
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162.
Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major).
Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major).
Trading Strategy
Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows.
Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions.
Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed.
Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout.
Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024
Economic Data & Interest Rates
Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns.
High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation.
Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts.
Earnings & Bank Stocks
Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector.
Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.
Market Outlook & Analysis
S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance.
April historically a bullish month.
Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus.
Global Markets
Japan's 5-year bond yield surges.
Singapore's GDP growth remains modest.
Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams.
Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162.
Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major).
Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major).
Trading Strategy
Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows.
Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions.
Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength.
Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout.
Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024
Interest Rates & Inflation
Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts.
Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further.
Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high.
Oil, China & Global Markets
Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel.
China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations.
Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain.
US Labor Market & Stock Performance
Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience.
S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains.
Banking Regulations & Debt Relief
UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans.
US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries.
ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings
ECB moves closer to a rate cut.
Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending.
Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 10, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 9th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Volatile and uncertain. CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing the likelihood of continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve.
CPI Data and Impact:
CPI rose 0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 3.5%, surpassing expectations.
Core CPI also accelerated 0.4% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts.
This suggests inflation remains persistent and could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance with higher interest rates.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5256, 5246-50 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5213 (major).
Major Supports: 5207, 5203, 5192 (major), 5181, 5171, 5162-64 (major), and many more.
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5262 (major), 5274-76 (major), 5288 (major), 5302 (major), 5351-54 (major).
Major Resistances: 5312 (major), 5374, 5386 (major), 5406 (major), 5441 (major), and more.
Trading Strategy
CPI Volatility: The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers will likely continue to generate market volatility. Exercise extreme caution and adapt your trading accordingly.
Focus on Reactions: Patience is essential. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims to identify potential entry points.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize reclaims over direct bids at major supports. Consider longs if major supports like 5246-50, 5230-34, or 5213 hold after potential dips, but only AFTER a failed breakdown and convincing reclaim. Deep dips to 5162-64 may warrant small knife-catch longs.
Short Opportunities: While counter-trend shorts are generally unadvised, those inclined may try shorts at 5302 and 5350, BUT with enhanced caution as even major resistances can be blown through after news events like CPI.
Bull Case
Bull Flag in Play: The bull flag with support at 5191 and resistance at 5274-76 remains relevant, but the hotter CPI makes a clean breakout less likely.
Holding Support: Bulls could still maintain control if 5230-34 holds any dips or if lost levels are quickly reclaimed within approximately 15 minutes.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A failure of the bull flag support at 5191 (initiated) increases the likelihood of a more significant bearish move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5189 for a move down the levels.
Increased Fed Pressure: The hotter-than-expected CPI reading strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance on interest rates, potentially leading to further downward pressure on the market.
News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024
CPI Impact on Markets
Hotter-than-expected CPI raises concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential actions.
Market volatility surges as traders reassess expectations.
Treasury Rates & Fed Policy
US 10-Year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% on inflation concerns.
Fed Chair Powell emphasizes need for inflation cooling evidence before rate cuts.
Bowman suggests further rate hikes may be needed if inflation stalls.
Individual Stocks
Tech and growth stocks may be particularly vulnerable to rising interest rate fears.
Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities could receive favor.
Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management, react to price action, and adjust your trading strategy accordingly!
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Consolidating within a tight range. Expect a breakout or breakdown with the potential for increased volatility.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5246, 5232-35 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207 (major).
Major Supports: 5196-98 (major), 5181, 5172 (major), 5155 (major), and many more.
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5256, 5262 (major), 5274, 5285 (major), 5294, 5302 (major).
Major Resistances: 5308 (major), 5327-30 (major), 5348 (major), 5379 (major), and others.
Trading Strategy
Rangebound Consolidation: ES is forming a tight base between 5235-5263. Exercise patience and prioritize either tactical adds on support tests/failed breakdowns OR hold a runner position with the trend.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5246 and 5232-35 (prioritize the latter). Consider dips below 5232 to 5207 or 5196-98, especially if followed by reclaims. Stick to level-to-level profit-taking.
Short Opportunities: While avoiding counter-trend shorts is generally advised, those inclined may consider potential shorts at 5285 (red downtrend resistance) or 5302-08 for dips.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5232-35 zone holds. If it does, consolidation continues, likely forming a bullish triangle for another push toward 5274, 5285, and potentially 5302-08.
Adding on Strength: If ES bases above 5246 (with dips below recovered) while staying under 5263, consider potential adds.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5232 triggers the bear case. Remember, most breakdowns are traps, so look for a retest and failed breakdown of 5232 first, then consider shorts with level-to-level targets.
News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024
Economic Indicators
CPI and PPI data in focus for inflation insights.
Bond market signals potential for stable interest rates.
Corporate Earnings
Big banks to release quarterly reports.
Interest Rate Decisions
Bank of Canada and ECB announcements could impact FX and indices.
EU Joint Borrowing Plan
Success of the EU plan could inform future fiscal tools.
Corporate Events
Blackstone's potential buyout of L’Occitane.
Reminder: Expect a breakout from the current tight range, potentially with volatility. Focus on reacting to price action, prioritizing risk management.
Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish with potential for volatility as CPI data approaches.
Important Note: CPI data will be released later this week. Expect outsized moves and potential traps. Prioritize risk management and adaptability.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5246 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207, 5203 (major), and others.
Major Supports: 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5179 (major), 5172, 5162 (major), 5155, 5144-46 (major), and many more.
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5255 (major), 5263, 5270 (major), 5279, 5287, 5292 (major), and others.
Major Resistances: 5302, 5308 (major), 5311, 5316, 5321, 5329-32 (major), and more.
Trading Strategy
Defending Support: The 5230-34 zone is crucial for bulls. Holding this level signals potential for an upwards move toward 5287-92, with possible profit-taking dips along the way.
Long Opportunities: Focus on the 5230-34 zone (if today's high remains unbroken). In case of a breakdown, use extreme caution and target major supports like 5203 and 5191. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims as potential long entry signals.
Shorting with Caution: Shorting into strength within bull markets is inherently risky. If considering shorts, the best area is the 5287-92 zone (red downtrend channel), with another potential reaction at 5270.
Bull Case
Holding Strong: As long as 5230-34 support holds (ideally with a minor dip promptly bought below 5203), the path is open to 5287-92. Expect another dip there before potentially reaching new all-time highs.
Ultra Bullish Scenario: If bulls hold above 5246 and buy any small dips, this signals strength and could lead to potential adds.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: If 5230-34 fails, the bear case activates. Since most breakdowns trap, look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider short entries with level-to-level profit targets.
News: Top Stories for April 8th, 2024
Stock Market Outlook
S&P 500 hits record highs, strong Q1 performance increases bullish sentiment.
Reduced recession fears and potential Fed pivot drive positive outlook.
April historically favorable for the S&P 500.
Analysts forecast strong earnings growth with significant upside potential.
Corporate Earnings
Intel's Q1 2024 financial results release set for April 25th.
Perion Network updates guidance, increases share buyback.
Economic Indicators
Q4 GDP growth remains solid despite high interest rates.
Bond market signals potential Fed rate cuts as early as June.
Trade deficit widens, while manufacturing data shows strength.
Technology Sector
Modest growth expected in 2024, with IT investment plans.
AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity to drive tech spending.
Other Corporate and Market News
Nvidia's strong performance continues in AI chip market.
Tesla faces challenges in China, automotive growth slows.
Boeing impacted by quality control concerns.
Upcoming Events
Tech conferences including Google Cloud Next and ODSC East.
Women in Tech Global Conference highlights industry leaders.
Reminder: The CPI release this week will likely cause significant volatility. Adapt your trading accordingly, with an emphasis on reacting to price action and prioritizing risk management.
Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Extreme volatility expected due to the recent selloff and NFP data release. Caution and adaptability are crucial.
Important Note: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was released at 8:30 AM (EST). Expect outsized moves and volatility. Avoid predictions, and look for failed breakdowns as potential trade entry points.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5203, 5196, 5190, 5181-84 (major), 5177, 5171 (major), 5163, 5155 (major), 5146, 5142 (major), 5136, 5127 (major), 5115, 5102 (major).
Major Supports: 5171, 5142 (important for long positions), and 5102 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5212 (major), 5221 (major), 5230, 5235, 5240 (major), 5250, 5257, 5266 (major), 5274, 5279, 5288 (major), 5294 (major), 5302.
Major Resistances: 5257, 5266 (major), 5288 (major), and 5310 (major).
Trading Strategy
Knife-Catch Mode: Exercise extreme caution and use small position sizes. Longs ONLY at major supports, prioritizing 5181-84, 5171, and especially 5142. Consider longs after a failed breakdown and reclaim.
Bullish Reclaims: If bulls regain 5212, watch for acceptance above this level before adding longs. Target level-to-level profits.
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of the 5235-40 zone as potential shorting areas, as it hasn't been fully retested from below.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to reclaim 5241 to maintain control and set the low. Moves towards 5265 and 5288 are possible if this occurs. Short-term, reclaiming 5212 is essential.
Downside Magnet: If bulls make a strong move, 5143 is a significant downside target to watch.
Bear Case
Resistance Rejections: If bulls fail to retake 5212, expect a retest and rejection. This could open up a move towards 5194 for potential short entries (only if a bear flag establishes between 5212-5196).
News: Top Stories for April 5th, 2024
U.S. Jobs Report
Strong March jobs report with 303,000 positions added.
Unemployment rate down to 3.8% shows continued labor market resilience.
Impact on Fed's rate decisions uncertain, as wage growth easing.
Corporate News
Johnson & Johnson's $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical announced.
Updates on Telecom Italia financing and China Oilfield Services operations.
Market Performance
S&P 500 hits all-time highs in March, strong Q1.
Nasdaq-100 projections point to good performance for 2024, with specific stock highlights.
Global Economic Indicators
Japan monitors volatile Yen movements.
Disappointing German factory data raises slowdown concerns.
India's strong economy leads to stable interest rates.
Energy Sector
Oil dividend stock recommendations for April.
Shell's gas output exceeds guidance.
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Fed remains inflation-focused, considering mid-2024 rate cut.
Developed market inflation expected to ease toward 2024 end.
Geopolitical Concerns
Questions emerge about reliance on U.S. nuclear capabilities.
U.S. strategic moves in managing China's growing power.
Technology & Disinformation
Chinese AI-powered campaigns targeting U.S. voters & Taiwan.
Market Outlook
J.P. Morgan sees a challenging 2024 ahead due to economic slowdown potential.
Overall positive 2024 outlook for U.S. stocks, experts discuss valuations and rate forecasts.
Reminder: Expect high volatility tomorrow due to NFP data and the recent sell-off. Adapt your trading size accordingly (1/4 size recommended). Focus on reacting to price action over any predictions.
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 4th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 4th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as traders weigh consolidation signs against the underlying bullish trend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (consolidation phase, earnings, Fed uncertainty)
Key Supports
Support Levels: 5266, 5257(major), 5246, 5241 (major), 5235 (major), 5231, 5222 (major), 5212 (major), 5208, 5203, 5196, 5192 (major), 5181 (major), 5171, 5163 (major), 5155, 5148, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5120, 5115, 5109 (major), 5105, 5092-95 (major)
Key Resistances
Resistance Levels: 5274, 5279 (major), 5285 (major), 5294, 5298-5302 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5322, 5329 (major), 5341, 5347, 5354 (major), 5363 (major), 5372, 5380 (major), 5392, 5400, 5408 (major), 5416, 5423-26 (major), 5435, 5447 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Zone: We're likely in a consolidation phase between 5241 and 5279. This requires flexibility and adaptability – overly aggressive trading will likely be punished.
Supports: Look for potential long opportunities at 5257 (if today's high isn't broken), with stronger plays at 5246 or the 5241-35 zone. Be cautious with longs above these levels.
Resistances: Shorting resistance areas carries risk in a bull market. Consider shorts near the 5298-5302 zone, primarily for scalps.
Breakdown Watch: A decisive break below 5235 activates the bear case, triggering breakdown setups. Remember, breakdowns often trap traders – patience is key. Look for a failed breakdown (rejection and recovery), then consider shorts with level-to-level targets.
Bull Case
Holding Support: As long as 5241-35 holds, bulls maintain control. Consolidation between 5241-5279 likely, followed by a potential breakout above the 5298-5302 zone. This could lead to retesting 5315+.
Expect Consolidation: We may not immediately reach new all-time highs. Be prepared for an extended consolidation period before the next push higher.
Bear Case
Key Breakdown Level: A strong break below 5235 signals a bear move. Look for failed breakdowns and bounces as shorting opportunities. Exercise caution due to the potential for traps.
News: Top Stories for April 4th, 2024
Federal Reserve Outlook
Fed signals continued focus on rate stability rather than immediate cuts.
Concerns remain about the potential impact on equities in the long-term.
Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics
Bitcoin surpasses $70,000 with continued bullish momentum.
Approaching Bitcoin halving sparks interest in the sector.
Global Economic Indicators
Eurozone growth strengthens, while major economies like Germany & France lag.
Inflation remains a concern, influencing the potential for rate adjustments.
Financial Services Sector
Outlook remains positive for financial stocks, with specific recommendations.
Increased focus on weathering rising interest rates & long-term market resilience.
Additional Market Updates
Risk-off sentiment following natural disasters in Asia.
Eurozone inflation data signals the potential for ECB rate cuts.
Warnings & Opportunities
Analysts express caution regarding select financial stocks before a potential crisis.
Technology continues to disrupt finance, with evolving focus on AI and blockchain within the space.
Important Reminder: Despite the potential for short-term pullbacks, the main trend remains bullish. Consolidation is likely. Prioritize adaptability, risk management, and reacting to the price action rather than relying solely on predictions.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after pullback in a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery, earnings season, potential FOMC pivot implications)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5245-5242 (major), 5235, 5232 (major), 5219, 5210-12 (major), 5203 (major), 5190, 5183, 5175-77 (major), 5171, 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5259, 5267-69 (major), 5274, 5282-84 (major), 5293, 5300(major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5329-33 (major), 5342, 5345 (major), 5352, 5357 (major), 5364, 5370 (major), 5380-82 (major), 5389, 5400 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Support & Resistance: Focus on potential bounces at support levels, notably 5242-5245 (triangle backtest) and the major support zones. Look for short opportunities at resistance levels, especially 5267-69 and 5282-84.
Knife Catch Mode: If sharp declines continue, be extremely cautious with longs, prioritizing major support levels only and following your rigorous knife-catching strategy.
Long Opportunities: Exercise patience if considering longs. Bids at 5242-45, with more confidence after a failed breakdown and reclaim, are possible. Consider potential adds above 5255.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting within the strong uptrend carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Triangle Backtest Hold: A successful hold of the 5242-45 triangle backtest, particularly if 5255 can be reclaimed, would signal potential for a rebound. This could lead to retests of 5267, a basing period, followed by a test of 5282-84, and potentially a move back toward 5300-07.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5232 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is likely around 5219.
News: Top Stories for April 3rd, 2024
Fed Policy Outlook:
Fed's report highlights financial sector vulnerabilities.
Markets expect a potential first interest rate cut in June, with an April cut possible.
Recent inflation data has moderated expectations for rapid easing of monetary policy.
Stock Market Performance:
S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in March, ending with its best first quarter since 2019.
Index gained 3.2% in March and is up 10.6% year-to-date.
April historically strong for the S&P 500, investors remain optimistic.
Economic Indicators:
Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% indicates resilience to rate hikes.
Bond market predicts the Fed will hold rates near-term, with potential cuts by June.
Global Developments:
China's service economy posts 15th consecutive month of growth, signaling recovery.
Cooling Eurozone inflation opens the door for potential rate cuts by the ECB.
Corporate News:
Agilent Technologies highlights new cancer research and diagnostics solutions.
Endeavor Group Holdings acquired by Silver Lake in a $13 billion deal, the largest in the media and entertainment sector.
Investment Considerations:
Earnings season may bring caution despite overall bullish market sentiment.
Potential pullbacks would be normal within the larger uptrend.
Climate Risk & Regulation:
The U.S. Federal Reserve has reportedly blocked a proposal to focus global banking regulations on climate risk.
Cryptocurrency & Blockchain:
Interest in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology remains high, with discussions on top investment opportunities and sector-wide adoption.
Remember: The market is reacting to a key support test within a strong uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, tactical trading within a range, price discovery in the context of a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery in a new zone, potential chop)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5294, 5286 (major), 5278-80 (major), 5274, 5267 (major), 5262, 5256, 5249, 5243-46 (major), 5235, 5230, 5225 (major), 5221, 5213-15 (major), 5207, 5203, 5191-95 (major), 5181, 5177, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5150-55 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5300-02 (major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5328 (major), 5337 (major), 5340, 5348, 5353 (major), 5359, 5363-66 (major), 5374, 5379, 5390 (major), 5398, 5403-05 (major), 5413, 5417, 5422, 5426, 5445 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Tactical Range Trading: The market appears to be in a consolidation range between 5267-5316. Focus on level-to-level trades, taking profits regularly, and adapting quickly to changing price action.
Failed Breakout: The failure of the breakout above last week's high suggests a period of range-bound trading or a potential dip before resuming the uptrend. Trade accordingly.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution and consider bids at 5286, with preference for testing 5278-80 support and reclaiming today's low. Partial longs at the 5267 support are an option, with more on a potential reclaim. Below 5262, be more selective with entries, favoring major levels.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting still carries significant risk within the strong uptrend context. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5267-5316 range, building out structure before continuing the upward move towards 5328, 5337, then 5366. Level-to-level trading is key.
Direct Move Higher: A decisive hold of 5285 could lead to a direct rally back to 5316, with re-tests of 5300 possible. Longs above 5300 with acceptance would be viable.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is 5262.
News: Top Stories for April 2nd, 2024
Stock Market Gains: Review the positive Q1 performance of global stock markets, focusing on the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and MSCI EAFE. Discuss the bond market's challenges.
Cryptocurrency Updates: Explore the anticipation surrounding the Bitcoin Cash halving and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, their historical price impact, and the overall sentiment in the crypto markets.
Regulatory Scrutiny: Examine the ongoing investigation of BlackRock and Vanguard over their stakes in American banks and the implications for passive investing regulations.
Economic Signals and Monetary Policies: Analyze the strong U.S. manufacturing report, its inflationary implications, and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Discuss China's possible monetary policy expansion.
IPO Market and Earnings Outlook: Highlight the upcoming IPOs and the start of the Q1 earnings season. Discuss expectations for financial results and their potential insights into the overall economic outlook.
FOMC Meeting: Emphasize the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential to shed light on the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts.
International Economic Trends: Cover Japan's economic recovery, rising interest rates, inflation in South Korea, and Australia's balanced economic risks.
Commodity Market Movements: Examine the factors influencing the palm oil market and OPEC+ output policy discussions.
Remember: The market is in a range-bound phase within a larger uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Trading Plan for Monday, April 1st, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 1st, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery ahead of reopening after long weekend
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery holiday, heightened with geopolitical backdrop)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5307 (major), 5299-5302 (major), 5293, 5287 (major), 5280, 5275 (major), 5270, 5261, 5267, 5252 (major), 5245-47 (major), 5234, 5230, 5222 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5207, 5202, 5186-5191 (major), 5176, 5165-67 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5311, 5316 (major), 5321, 5326, 5329-30 (major), 5337, 5342, 5347 (major), 5351, 5355, 5358 (major), 5362, 5372, 5382 (major), 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5407 (major), 5412, 5425, 5430, 5435-38 (major), 5445, 5451 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Price Discovery: After the long weekend, anticipate market moves as price discovery unfolds. Prioritize patience and focus on reacting to price action rather than predicting.
Consolidation Range: Be aware that the 5300-5320 zone is a new consolidation range, likely to see choppy price action. Overtrading in this zone can be detrimental.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution with long entries over the weekend. If 5299-5302 is retested, consider bids, or, for additional confirmation, wait for the failed breakdown setup (below overnight and daily lows, then reclaim) Below that, only the major levels are of interest for longs.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Support Holds: As long as supports like 5299-5302 hold, bulls maintain short-term control.
Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5302-5320 range, potentially ping-ponging within it.
Breakout Continuation: A decisive break and hold above 5320 could lead to a surge towards 5329-30, then 5347. Reclaims of 5307 are areas to potentially add to longs, with disciplined profit-taking.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5299-5302 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 29th, 2024
Global Humanitarian Crises: Focus on the UNHCR appeal for aid for South Sudanese refugees, the ICJ measures for Israel, the humanitarian situation in Haiti, and the youth mobilization around the UN Summit of the Future.
Climate Change Impacts: Examine the effects of climate change on Nepal's biodiversity and the resilience of communities in Madagascar despite gender-based violence.
Economic Updates: Analyze the latest inflation data from the Fed's preferred PCE price index, Huawei's financial results, and Syngenta's cancellation of its Chinese IPO.
Fed Policy Outlook: Consider Fed Chair Powell's commentary and the impact of the LEI on potential economic growth and the Fed's approach to interest rates.
Market Sentiment: Assess market volatility surrounding the PCE report and potential risks.
Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 28th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 28th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5307, 5302, 5296-5299 (major), 5293, 5288 (major), 5284, 5280, 5274 (major), 5268-70 (major), 5265, 5258 (major), 5245-47 (major), 5240, 5235 (major), 5230, 5217, 5213-16 (major), 5208 (major), 5203, 5190-93 (major), 5178-76 (major), 5171, 5165 (major), 5155-58 (major), 5147, 5143, 5136, 5123-26 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5311, 5316 (major), 5320, 5326, 5336, 5342 (major), 5346, 5351 (major), 5360, 5364, 5372 (major), 5380-83 (major), 5388, 5395, 5403 (major), 5413, 5425-30 (major), 5445 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Price Discovery: After a strong surge, the market is in price discovery mode. Prioritize patience and focus on reacting to price action rather than predicting.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution with after-hours long entries: prioritize profit preservation on your existing long runner. Consider bids at 5296-5299 for a backtest, or, for additional confirmation, wait for the 5274-70 zone to be tested and reclaimed. Below that, only the major levels are of interest for longs.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength after a strong move carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Support Holds: As long as supports like 5299-96 and the crucial 5274-70 zone hold, bulls maintain short-term control.
Breakout Continuation: A decisive hold and test of 5299-96 could lead to a surge towards 5316, 5320, 5326, with 5342 as the first major target.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267-70 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 28th, 2024
U.S. Economy Outlook: Analysts provide insights on the U.S. economy's resilience, potential for soft landing, and the Fed's possible rate adjustments in late 2024.
Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500's recent gains, fueled by strong corporate earnings and optimistic investor sentiment.
Global Economic Updates: Updates on the economic conditions of the Eurozone, the U.K., and emerging markets, including growth projections from Vanguard.
Corporate Earnings Updates: Focus on financial results and guidance from companies like Sharecare, Janover Inc., and Medigene AG.
Stock Market Trends: Wall Street's positive reaction to the Fed's recent dovish comments and expectations for continued market gains. Review Indian equity market performance.
F&O Ban List: Securities facing F&O ban and their potential impact on trading activity.
Market Forecasts: Analyze market sentiment, gold and Bitcoin price trends, and potential cybersecurity investments.
Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 27th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 27th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5266 (major), 5258, 5247 (major), 5242, 5233-36 (major), 5221, 5213, 5206-10 (major), 5198, 5188-91 (major), 5181, 5172, 5167-69 (major), 5162, 5153-55 (major), 5146, 5137, 5126 (major), 5119 (major), 5109
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5274 (major), 5281, 5286-88 (major), 5293, 5299 (major), 5305 (major), 5311, 5315, 5318-20 (major), 5328, 5336-38 (major), 5345 (major), 5354, 5365 (major), 5372, 5380 (major), 5392, 5399 (major), 5408 (major), 5416 (major), 5425, 5432, 5440-44 (major), 5448, 5457 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Support & Resistance: Watch for potential bounces on support levels 5266, 5247 (triangle backtest), or a deeper pullback to 5242. For shorts, look higher towards 5286-88 or the 5299 zone after a strong move up.
Long Opportunities: Consider longs only on strong reactions to support levels, ideally with confirmed failed breakdowns for added safety.
Short Opportunities: If considering shorts, strong moves up followed by signs of weakness near resistance zones could be potential areas.
Focus on Reactions: Be adaptable – volatility can create opportunities and traps with equal measure.
Bull Case
Support Holds: As long as supports like 5266, then particularly the triangle backtest at 5247 hold, bulls maintain short-term control.
Breakout potential: A decisive breakout above the flag pattern's resistance around the 5300 zone could lead to a surge towards 5318-20 and potentially new highs.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5266 followed by continued selling could trigger a move downwards. Look for potential shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces with extremely tight stops due to FOMC volatility. .
News: Top Stories for March 27th, 2024
Regulatory Response to Bank Runs: Federal Reserve and regulatory officials prepare to announce new rules designed to prevent future bank crises, addressing lessons learned from last year's turmoil.
Economic Outlook: Recent CPI data, comments from industry leaders and analysts provide insights into inflation trends, monetary policy expectations, and the global economic outlook.
Market Performance and Expectations: A cautious outlook for 2024 due to various factors including geopolitical risks and monetary headwinds.
Corporate News: Updates on legal settlements, management changes, and stock market debuts affecting companies like Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, and Truth Social.
Legal Issues in Crypto: U.S. prosecutors file criminal charges against KuCoin exchange and its founders.
Currency and Interest Rates: Tracking movements in the Japanese Yen and potential actions by the Swedish Riksbank.
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 26th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 26th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, consolidation after rally
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5274-76 (major), 5267, 5263 (major), 5257, 5247-51 (major), 5243, 5235, 5228 (major), 5221, 5217, 5212, 5200-03 (major), 5194, 5190 (major), 5179, 5171, 5167 (major), 5163, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5137, 5126 (major), 5115 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5281, 5288 (major), 5292, 5299-5303 (major), 5307, 5311, 5316 (major), 5320, 5329, 5337 (major), 5346, 5351, 5356 (major), 5364, 5371, 5380, 5386 (Major), 5392, 5408 (major), 5416, 5426, 5434-37 (major), 5443-5446 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Tight Range: Be prepared for continued choppy trading within the range defined by the multi-day flag structure. Trade with caution and focus on range-bound strategies or consider sitting out.
Flag Structure: Observe the bull flag structure with support around 5274-76 and resistance near 5288 and the 5300 zone. A decisive breakout or breakdown could provide a clearer directional signal.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5274-76, particularly after a retest and reclaim. If this level fails, be extremely cautious about longs and consider bids only at major support levels like 5263 and 5247-51 (triangle back-test). Watch for failed breakdowns for added confirmation.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength carries significant risk, particularly within the flag structure. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near 5288 or the 5300 zone. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold within this consolidation pattern.
Bull Case
Flag Breakout: A breakout above the bull flag resistance around 5288 and further above 5300 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 5316, 5338, and ultimately 5350+.
Support Holds: As long as 5274-76 holds, the bulls remain in short-term control. Look for potential add-on points if a breakout occurs, preferably after acceptance or a failed breakdown.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5274-76 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 26th, 2024
GameStop Earnings: Focus on the GameStop earnings report and its potential impact on the stock market and meme stock sentiment.
Federal Reserve Updates: Stay informed about the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans and their impact on market sentiment, particularly concerns about a potential market crash.
Global Economic Developments: Monitor updates on economic conditions in Germany, the U.S. housing market, and the China-U.S. trade dispute.
U.S. Economy: Analysis of the U.S. economy's resilience, and the implications for the Fed's possible rate cut plans.
Stock Market Performance: Track stock market movements, including updates on the Sensex, the Nifty, and the impact of new home sales data in the U.S.
Banking and Regulations: Examine the impact of Basel III regulations on the APAC banking sector and the outlook for emerging markets.
U.S. Fiscal Policy: Consider the CBO's warnings about rising U.S. federal debt and the increasing cost of debt servicing.
Remember: The market is consolidating after a strong rally. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
