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ESM2024

Trading Plan for Friday, March 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5302 (major), 5298, 5286, 5282-79 (major), 5275, 5257, 5246-49 (major), 5236 (major), 5231, 5225, 5218 (major), 5212, 5208 (major), 5203, 5191-94 (major), 5179, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5153-55 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5123-26 (major), 5115, 5108 (major), 5102, 5092, 5077-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5308, 5320 (major), 5331, 5337-39 (major), 5347, 5350-5354 (major), 5362, 5374, 5381, 5385-90 (major), 5400, 5413, 5425-30 (major) Trading Strategy: Support Testing: The market is likely to test key support levels after the rally. Prioritize capital preservation and be watchful for potential bounce plays. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5302 (after retest and reclaim), 5282-79, or the triangle backtest at 5246-49. Avoid aggressive longs if the triangle backtest fails. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally. Bull Case Triangle Backtest Hold: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5246-49 triangle backtest holds. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5282-79 zone, provides a strong entry for a move back towards the 5320 resistance. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5302 after a retracement, creating the potential for further upside moves. Watch for flagging in this zone for potential upside. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5302 and especially below the 5251-47 triangle backtest could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 22nd, 2024 Global Economic Developments: Labor market developments in Germany, housing market indicators in the U.S., the Panama Canal's financial performance, and the global semiconductor industry. Federal Reserve Updates: The impact of the Fed's latest interest rate decision and economic forecasts. Inflation and Jobs: Analysis of the latest job market data and inflation trends, and their implications for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy actions. International Markets: Updates on foreign direct investment in China, German business sentiment, inflation in Japan, and the Australian economy's response to interest rate pressures. Legislative Updates (U.S.): Developments regarding the U.S. spending bill and geopolitical concerns surrounding the CHIPS grant in Arizona. Indian Equity Markets: Analysis of recent movements in the Indian markets, including IT, auto sector news, and performance of the Sensex and Nifty. Corporate News: Stock market reactions to company announcements, such as news from Larsen and Toubro and IDFC FIRST Bank. Outlook on Accenture and other tech stocks. IPO and Stock Market Updates: Discussion of how Reddit's IPO performance may impact the overall market sentiment and encourage other companies to go public. Remember: The market is likely in a price discovery phase. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after breakout Weekly Volatility Risk: High (potentially elevated due to price discovery post-breakout) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5275-80 (major), 5266-68, 5260, 5251 (major), 5246, 5236, 5231, 5221-26 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5196, 5189-91 (major) ,5178, 5169 (major), 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5116, 5109, 5103 (major), 5095, 5091, 5079-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5285, 5295-5300 (major), 5315 (major), 5330 (major), 5339, 5345, 5352 5360, 5369, 5376-81 (major), 5389, 5405, 5423, 5428-32 (major) Trading Strategy: Price Discovery Mode Post-Breakout Caution: The parabolic rally yesterday makes today a less favorable environment for aggressive trading. Exercise caution, as setups are likely to be less reliable. Prioritize capital preservation. Long Opportunities: Watch for potential long entries at 5275-80 or after a dip and reclaim (to 5273 or 5268). Target a retest of the 5295 resistance if we haven't tagged it yet. The backtest of the triangle breakout zone at 5251-46 is interesting but carries more risk. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the breakout. Bull Case Breakout Continuation: The triangle breakout, as long as the 5251-47 zone holds, targets a move towards 5295-5300, then 5315 and potentially up to 5330. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5275 after a bullish leg, creating the potential for further upside moves. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5251-47 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 21st, 2024 Fed Rate Decision: Fed holds rates steady and projects three cuts this year. March 2024 Market Outlook: Analysts provide insights and forecasts on the global economy, equities, interest rates, and upcoming financial events. Corporate Earnings Updates: Companies like Borregaard ASA and Affimed N.V. release their financial reports, detailing performance and future guidance. Bank of America Reporting Schedule: Investors have access to the financial reporting dates for Bank of America in 2024. AI and Market Sentiment Some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally and the extent to which it reflects actual revenue growth. Global Economic Developments: Central banks in Switzerland and Russia make interest rate adjustments, impacting currency markets. Financial Trends for 2024: Focus on sustainable investing, digital assets, AI and automation, cybersecurity, and financial literacy. Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery after the breakout. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Extremely cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: Extremely High (FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5236, 5230, 5220-17 (major), 5212, 5209 (major), 5202, 5196, 5192 (major), 5184, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5155-57 (major), 5147, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5117, 5100-03 (major), 5091, 5075-80 (major), 5069, 5056 (major), 5050, 5043 (major), 5038, 5032, 5020-25 (major), 5014, 5010 (major), 5000, 4995 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5246-49 (major), 5258, 5265, 5276-80 (major), 5295-5300 (major), 5308 (major), 5317, 5323 (major), 5330, 5338, 5352, 5358, 5365-70 (major), 5384, 5395, 5406-11 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Extreme Caution FOMC Volatility: The FOMC decision is the dominant factor today. Expect unpredictable market swings and heightened volatility. Prioritize capital preservation above all else. Triangle Pattern: The triangle pattern with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5184 remains in play. FOMC is likely to trigger a breakout or breakdown. Long Opportunities: (High Risk) FOMC-related dips present potential long opportunities, but only with extremely cautious sizing. Consider targeting 5220-17 first, and even then, only if it shows a failed breakdown and reclaim. In a severe melt-down scenario, watch for failed breakdown setups around major supports. Short Opportunities: (High Risk) Counter-trend shorting on FOMC days is extremely risky. If considering shorts, the 5295-5300 zone, after a strong move up, could be one potential area. Focus on Reactions: Don't predict FOMC outcomes, focus on reacting to price action post-decision. Bull Case Triangle Breakout: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50 could lead to targets at 5258, 5276-80, and then the 5295-300 zone. Be wary of traps on any strong moves post-FOMC. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5184 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise extreme caution and patience in a fast-moving market. News: Top Stories for March 20th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, updated economic projections, and any guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts and how data will determine those decisions. Market Volatility: Expect unpredictable market swings around the FOMC decision, with the potential for large gains or losses. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators, the latest CPI figures, and concerns about recession risks will be closely watched alongside the Fed's announcements and commentary. Intel Investment Boost: Intel receives a major investment, boosting the company and its stock. EU Regulatory Vote Delayed: The EU delays the vote on a nature restoration law due to concerns and farmer protests. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause extreme market volatility, whipsaws are likely. Be extremely adaptable, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk today above all else.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5209, 5203 (major), 5191, 5182-77 (major support/triangle), 5171, 5165, 5157-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5124-26 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5095 (major), 5087, 5083 (major), 5076 (major), 5072, 5066, 5060, 5055 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5215-20 (major), 5230, 5236 (major), 5246-50 (major - triangle resistance), 5257, 5264, 5270, 5275-77 (major), 5283, 5295-5300 (major), 5306, 5313 (major), 5326, 5333, 5340, 5355, 5362-66 (major), 5370, 5377, 5385, 5395 (major), 5400-5405 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Focus Holding Pattern: The market might be on hold until the FOMC announcement, so pre-announcement moves may lack conviction. Triangle Trading: The triangle setup with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5182-77 defines the range for today. Profit-taking at each end of the range is advisable. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5203 (especially if it's a major support test). Below that, interest in longs arises at the triangle support (5182-77). Avoid aggressive longs below 5182-77 with more substantial sell-offs possible. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. FOMC Volatility: Expect increased volatility during and after the FOMC announcement. Bull Case Triangle Support: Bulls need to defend the triangle support at 5182-77. Holding above this level allows for a potential retest of 5245-50 resistance within the triangle. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5215-20 and above 5202/5209 support suggests potential for an upside move. Breakout Potential: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50, likely post-FOMC, could lead to targets at 5275-77 and then the 5295-5300 zone. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5182-77 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Cascading Sell-off: If 5202 support fails, a deeper test of the triangle support is possible, potentially leading to a more severe correction. News: Top Stories for March 19th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, dot plot projections, and any hints on the timing of potential rate cuts Banking Concerns: Economists warn of a potential new banking crisis triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve's BTFP program and potential geopolitical disruptions to credit markets. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed picture. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was impressive, while the Conference Board's leading economic index signals a potential slowdown. Market Performance: Market volatility could spike around the FOMC decision. Long-term investors are focused on the Fed's interest rate path and its impact on earnings and valuations. Global Trends: The end of the negative interest rate era, the decline in North American Pay TV subscribers, and strategic CFO priorities highlight key global shifts. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause significant market volatility. Be prepared to adapt your trading strategy accordingly, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5171-73 (major), 5167, 5162, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5127 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5104, 5092 (major), 5083 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5181, 5191, 5202 (major), 5207, 5213 (major), 5220-24 (major), 5230, 5236, 5246-51 (major), 5260, 5267 (major), 5280, 5285, 5294 (major), 5300, 5304 (major), 5315, 5320-22 (major), 5332, 5340, 5345, 5354-57 (major) Trading Strategy: Pivot Point: The 5171-73 support (white trendline) is crucial. A potential bounce is possible, but exercise caution as significant selling pressure could develop if this level fails. Long Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities on a bounce or reclaim of 5171-73. The 5152-55 major support is the last line of defense for bulls. Avoid aggressive longs below that level. Look for entries around 5115 or 5127 only if they show strong signs of a rebound. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. Knife Catching Caution: Avoid impulsive buys deep into red candles on violent sell-offs. Treat them as short-term, smaller position trades. Bull Case Support Defense: Bulls need to hold the 5171-73 trendline, with ideally no further tests. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5152-55 zone, provides a low-risk entry for a move back towards resistance at 5202/5207. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5191 and above the 5170s support suggests potential upside for a move to 5202/5207. Path to New Highs: A successful defense of the trendline and subsequent move through resistance zones could lead to fresh all-time highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5171 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience here as breakdowns are often tricky and require skilled execution. Cascading Sell-off: If the 5152-55 major support fails, a deeper, more severe correction is possible. News: Top Stories for March 18th, 2024 Taiwan's Defense Strategy: Taiwan weighs investing in smaller, cheaper weaponry to counter potential invasion threats from China. Goldman Sachs Departure: The exit of a senior executive at Goldman Sachs signals potential internal shifts within the company. Middle East Conflict: Israel's raid on a hospital in Gaza risks escalating tensions in the region. Retail Challenges: Joann's bankruptcy highlights the ongoing difficulties faced by traditional retailers in the current consumer landscape. European Defense Stocks: The value of European defense stocks is fluctuating based on political rhetoric and policy shifts. FedEx-Amazon Partnership: Possible collaboration under discussion could reshape logistics and e-commerce dynamics. Fed Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve's latest report highlights potential vulnerabilities due to leverage and high stock valuations. No rate cuts are expected until the Fed is confident inflation is under control. Bank Regulation Debate: A year after financial instability, regulators prepare new rules while facing industry criticism. Labor Market Update: Continued strength in the US job market puts factors into play the Fed will consider in its interest rate decisions. Inflation and Consumer Spending: The paradox of resilient consumer spending despite high inflation is a key focus of economists and policymakers. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on Nvidia's GTC Conference, updates on Indian markets, scrutiny of Adani Group, and shifts in startup financing trends. Remember: Prioritize capital preservation during this time of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential volatility and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro