SPY Chart Artnever know. speculation. got carried away. need to break above 200 ema on dialy. maybe hit100 if break above for slight down turn heading into fed meeting/ rate hike. etc march 10th, 15th-16th.
Esmini
S&P 500 futures hit first downside targetThe S&P 500 futures are down over 2% today on news from Ukraine. The price action slipped further in the red to hit 4120, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. In case this zone gives away, the next big support is located near 4040.
#ES_F 2.15.22 Overview and Levels to watchIn Globex we had a break out from Mondays Value and we are currently in our T+2 Range which is Friday. Today during RTH we will want to monitor and see if we will get a continuation and test the high of settlement, fail and come back in or if we found our next temporary balance that we need to fill in before next move. Globex is in double distribution and here are the levels I will be watching today. On the Upside we have 4465.25-4460.25 as our PM resistance and 4479.75-4475 as our KEY Intraday Resistance, if broken and we can build value over we can see 4490-4487.25, 4497.25-4494.75, 4508.75-4505.50 and bigger area of resistance and Friday High at 4524.25-4519. On the downside we have 4437.75-4432.50 as our upper distribution support and our Key Intraday Support at 4424.50-4418.75. Holding under the distribution support will be our first sign of weakness and if we break and hold under the Key Support then we can see a test of 4405.25-4403, 4392.25-4389.75 and bigger area of support at 4378.50-4374.75. Another option I will be looking at is after this big move in globex we need to digest and can stay between 4424-4480 before it makes next move.
SPX: Could it reverse and fill the GAP at 4,652?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today.
First, in the 1h chart, it lost the support level we mentioned yesterday, triggering a bearish reaction, as expected. The correction was quite sharp, but is this a reason to panic?
To be honest, I was expecting a sharper correction, maybe to the previous support at the black line, but the index is trying to find support already. Yes, it still could retest the 21 ema and do a Dead Cat Bounce all the way down to 4,453. However, I'm not too convinced of that, and it is important to look at the Futures for more clues:
The index hit its previous support today at night, at the 4,456 (red line), and it is bouncing back up nicely. It found a resistance at the 50% Fibonacci’s Retracement, and it is trying to stabilize today.
As far as I know, the best moments to buy are near support levels, like red line, and sell near resistances, like the blue line. Given the way the SPX and the Futures are looking, it is plausible to see more upside potential, the question is, for how long it could go up.
Regardless of how the index reacts in the 1h chart, I still see the 38.2% retracement in the daily chart as the most important support level for the mid-term. By losing this retracement, it would trigger a Double Top chart pattern, and it could easily slip towards the 61.8% retracement.
If we’ll see a Dead Cat Bounce or not, we don’t know yet, as we lack confirmation on the charts. Any comment on that would be just a guess.
However, if the SPX breaks the resistance (previous support) at 4,531, this could be a nice false breakout, and the index might trigger a pivot point that could help it to break the resistance at 4,583 and fill the next gap at 4,652.
It’ll depend on how the index will close today. I’ll keep you guys updated, as always. If you want to keep in touch with my daily analysis on indices and stocks, remember to follow me, and to support this idea if it helped you.
Have a good weekend.
Nathan.
#ES_F 2.11.22 Overview and Levels to watchYesterday we got another rejection from our Key area and with no further upside inventory sold off. Today we have Globex inventory short and set to open under T+2. We have 4497.25-4494.75 as our PM Resistance and 4479.75-4475 as our PM Support. On the downside holding below PM Support leaves the doors open for moves lower to 4465.25-4460.25, 4447.25-4445, We have single prints to fill around the 4437.75-4432.50 level and our bigger area of support at 4424.50-4418.75 and of course if we have a lot of inventory can see even lower. On the upside if we get over and build over PM Resistance we can then test the upper levels of 4508.75-4505.50, 4524.25-4519 and 4536.75-4532.50 as our upper key levels. It might take some time to clean things up after yesterday but lets see what they have for us.
#ES_F 2.10.22 Overview and Levels to watchMarket is waiting to make a move, could we see it today after the morning releases? We have been knocking on key resistance area since yesterday, the questions is will we break through and keep going or run out of buyers and go back down. Today we have 4570-4562.50 as our PM Support being under there would give us first sign of weakness and below we have 4551.25-4548.75 as minor support and 4536.75-4532.50 as our KEY Intraday Support which needs to be broken to see more downside levels which are 4524.25-4519, 4508.75-4505.50 and if going down on big volume can see 4497.25-4487.25, 4479.75-4475, 4465.25-4460.25. On the upside we have 4589.50-4584.75 as our PM Resistance that we need to break and hold over to see upside to 4603.25-4598.75 and our KEY Intraday Resistance at 4623.25-4614.50 that if broken can give us 4636.50-4632.25, 4650.50-4646.25 and 4675.25-4666.25 which is our next big area of resistance. Lets see if we make our move today or keep snoozing.
#ES_F 2.09 Overview and Levels to watchGlobex Inventory is long and we are on the move out of Value. Where are we taking this today? On the downside we have 4536.75-4532.50 as PM support which of broken that's our first sign of weakness and below is KEY Intraday support at 4524.25-4519 which needs to be broken in order to see lower levels which are 4508.75-4505.50, 4497.25-4487.25 and 4479.75-4475. On the Upside holding above PM support is continuation of strength and can see 4570-4562.50 and 4589.50-4584.75 which would be our Key Resistance areas for today for more upside. If we build Value over 4570 and take out 4589.50 can see 4603.25-4598.75, 4623.25-4614.50 and maybe 4636.50-4632.25.
#ES_F 2.08.22 Overview and levels to watchSnooze fest in Globex but that was expected. Are we getting a move today or are we staying in value again. Today we have 4490.25-4487.25 as our PM resistance and 4479.75-4475 as our PM support. Holding below the support is our first sign of weakness and we have 4465.25-4460.25 as our KEY intraday support and if broken we can see 4447.25-4445, 4437.75-4432.50 and maybe 4424.50-4418.75 But we should see buyers along the way at those levels unless we are going down on big volume. On the upside if we get over and hold above PM support then we can see a test of PM resistance and 4494.75-4490, 4508.75-4505.50, 4524.25-4519 and maybe 4536.75-4532.50. I am keeping my expectations low and slow today so lets see what the order flow will bring.
#ES_F 2.07.22 Overview and Levels to WatchQuite Globex after some big moves last few weeks. Today we might have a balanced day on our hands but lets breakdown our possible scenarios. On the upside we have 4508.75-4505.50 as our PM resistance and 4524.25-4519 as our Key Resistance, if we manage to break over and hold then we can see 4536.75-4532.50, 4551.25-4548.75 We expect to see sellers at those areas unless we are going up on big volume and break through them clean and 4570-4562.50 as the next bigger resistance area where sellers should also be active. On the downside we have 4479.75-4475 as our PM support and holding below it are first signs of weakness and can take us to test lower areas at 4465.25-4460.25, 4447.25-4445 and maybe 4437.75-4432.50 which is our Key Intraday support, if broken and we can get under 4424.50-4418.75 then could see more downside. Manage expectations and trading level to level will win the day.
ES Correction & Potential Bounce LevelsWe have been in a recent downtrend on $ES $SPX and a lot of traders are probably wondering where the bottom will be. A break back up toward 4553 and a hold above 4565 would signal that we have bottomed in the short term. That would not necessarily mean the bounce wouldn't fail to retest the lows but here are some potential bounce levels.
Fibonacci levels near 4361, 4278 and lower support zone below October lows near 4170-4180. This would be considered an extreme target and unlikely to reach in the short term. However with recent political headlines and the market having a risk off nature, no one really knows where it will bottom.
Thanks for following and watching. Feel free to comment and share. Stay tactical and stay safe.
SPX500 Short SetupExpecting a bounce to 4740~ sell zone for a dip to 4570-4580~
Confluence of support in this area
Long-term trendline + 100DMA
Last dips held by 100DMA
s&p500 futures still have bull momentumas long as we respect the 1-4 hr neckline, and we dont roll over breaking to new lows there are still lots of attractive areas of price above 4783
the bottom line is that calls are still cheap as long as we keep consolidating, so shooting for a intraday high above 4800 is a sound judgement
this means quick profit can be taken as we snap back to higher prices on the 15 minute
4780.25 is a decent target
head and shoulders if we roll over and break neck (es1!)its pretty clear that setting a lower high on the hourly, especially around the left shoulders price, and breaking to new lows and closing 15 mins in bear territory would be a bearish pattern for s&p500 futures to put
S&P500 Taking A Breather Pricing In Inflation And Tapering
The higher US CPI read of 6.2 % YoY lead to a spike in US10Y and a small sell off in the ES. As of now the uptrend remains intact and as long as we do not get a close below 4300 I am looking for long entries.
Buy at or around 4552 if support holds or buy break and close above 4713 resistance.
Looking at the order book we can see a lot more sell orders between 4662 up to 4675 vs much less buying orders below 4659 down towards 4612.
CME_MINI:ES1!
Weekly ES PreparationInteresting week last week.
S&P went from the verge of a Bear Market to a breakout and gap up.
If a bounce off the top of this new Bullish channel
There should be a dip into Wed VIX expiry.
And then likely trap some bulls before testing the lower end of the channel
Followed by reversing on the Inflection Point / Gamma Flip area of 4363.
This time I think we could see some liquidations if plenty of bulls get trapped when aiming for the ATH.
Bulls defending the bottom of the channel would likely be rewarded with 1 way ticket to ATH for Christmas.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Will the trend line hold?Since the turn of the year, prices seemed to bounce back up after retracing to the Demand Zones.
Will it still be the case for this time around?
If it doesn't, then the long term up trend line could be broken. If this is really the case, then the next Demand Zone should be the next area to be tested.
This also means the remaining months will be bumpy as the kangaroo takes over until either the bull or bear regains control.
Trade safely!
Disclaimer: I'm not giving any trading and investing advice. I'm just sharing my chart observations.
If you have any symbols that you'd like me to analyze, feel free to drop me a comment.
SPX: The Jerome & Powell 500 Channel As the markets pullback this week, keep in mind we're still in what I call the J&P 500 Channel.
The chart is the daily SPX adjusted for Inflation. The bottom channel is a 10 year regression trend channel that has contained the SPX until the march 2020 crash.
The upward trending channel is what I call the Jerome & Powell 500 Channel which is a modified schiff pitchfork that represents the QE / Stimulus the Fed has been pumping into the economy since March.
If the key level (median line in red) holds over the next few days I plan to buy the dip.
If we close below the key level before tapering and the decline of stimulus (rising interest rates, end of moratorium, end of asset purchases) I would worry about a full on correction.
SPXRising wedge on the monthly.
SPX under 4400 can drop another 30-50 points.
Trade Idea: 8/20 4375P
SP 500 JUST CLOSED OVER DECADES LONG FIBONACCI LINEHEAVY RESISTANCE AT 3846.75, A FIBONACCI PATTERN DATING BACK TO THE DOT-COM AND GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS ERA. THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS CLEARLY PUMPING ENOUGH MONEY INTO THE SYSTEM TO GET US BACK OVER THAT TREND LINE, AND DEPENDING ON HOW IT IS DRAWN, IT SEEMS WE HAVE JUST HAD THE BREAKOUT OF A DECADE. NEW BULL MARKET INTACT? FOLLOW PRICE, NOT YOUR EMOTIONS...
90.7 DXY Dollar is the key to the stocks correction!!!If the Dollar gets over 90.7, that should signal the correction in all assets. 90.7 is the *yearly* 20 period moving average. Rejected twice this past week, but it has broken out of a wedge pattern, backtested successfully, and seems to want to move up to get over 90.7. Target 92.3-92.5 for the short term resistance and green light to long stocks. 90.99 is a gap and also a target.
es mini goes to 3800 or notFrom 15 mins, it seems to try out 3800.
But 1d chart it is reaching upper parallel, which may have retracement any time soon.
Possible Cup and Handle on ES1!A possible cup and handle has been building on es1! for about a month now. Looking for a breakout or rejection moving into the week.
We haven't broken out yet.
Pretty interesting lunar week as well, with a total lunar eclipse on the 14th and some wild times with strange planetary positioning. Honestly, I don't trade-off astronomy but there's no doubt that it has an effect on the volatility of human nature. Be aware of geometry.
