Esmini
ES into the Maj Resistance end 61.8 retracementHaving a connection in Toronto, have time to update.
Im short ES here from 82 and 87.5
We are right into the 61.8 retracement as well as the Maj trednline off 2009 lows (red line)
Min target is 3914 but should test lower into the 3900 zone next imo.
Ideally we test my 3875 zone and move back up for lower high or the ideal high to 4033-34 and even 4075-90
ES is sitting at the support zoneES is sitting at the support zone, breaking below will get us down to 3630-60 zone quick.
C&H pattern failed, no good news to the bulls till lower lows next week imo
In case of a H&S pattern, we should see 200 points plus below the neck zone - green support line.
That would get us to my ideal target zone 3500 and 3555-50SPX
#ES 06.23.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchGlobex inventory got short at T+2 low area we corrected and saw the high tested, so far we are correcting back towards the close before the open. Question today is do we have all the supply to get over T+2 High, Previous day high and push higher? Or will we fail to get over and come back in to test T+2 low and previous day low? Powell speaking at 10 so watch out.
-- On The Upside: Holding above 3764.75-3760.50 is a sign of strength and can give us a test of upper levels at 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 Which is our T+2 High area and level to Watch for Continuation, to really get more upside
we will need to get over that and Previous day High and our Key Resistance at 3809.50-3805.25. If we do get over that then watch out for higher levels to test.
-- On The Downside: Holding below T+2 high and getting under 3780.50-3776.75 can give us a test of Key Support at 3764.75-3760.50 if that breaks we have 3747.50-3744.75, T+2 low area around 3728.75-3725.25 and Previous day Low
with another Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75. If this area breaks and we accept under then Lower levels and last weeks lows can be in reach.
** Key Areas To Watch: 3809.50-3805.25 // 3791.75-3787.75 // 3764.75-3760.50 // 3728.75-3725.25 // 3714.75-3709.75
#ES Futures Bottom is in Or Heading Lower? Lets break down what we can see in Globex and in tomorrows session. Did we find temporary support, built a position under 3715-10 that we now have all the supply to run the upper stops, fill the Gap at 3723 area and fill push higher to sell our product there? Or did we find temporary support using all the people who piled in Short Thursday/Friday morning and after everyone covers here we wont have anymore buyers to take us higher and come down to test the lows again?
I was thinking long Friday at after we tested the Previous Day low and came back in, sign of strength for me and right away told me we will most likely stay inside Thursdays RTH range, Last night Globex held the Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 and we saw this morning it ran up over our Key Resistance of 3714.75-3709.75 but I started breaking down the MGI a bit more and now im not so sure this will be the agenda tomorrow, I am thinking that what gave us support this time around is everyone who shorted the top of FOMC day and the chasers who piled in short Thursday morning after they saw the big move down Over Night and of course people looking for continuation Friday morning, because of the Holiday we are counting Last night Globex, this morning session and tonight's Globex as one session which tells me that if we spend time over this Key Resistance which also happens to be our Previous day (Friday) High and our RTH T+2 high area but fail to extend and take out/hold the gap area and our level of 3728.75-3725.25 either Tonight or at RTH open and come back under this Key Resistance then that was just a stop run to sell inventory and can give us a test of Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 and T+2 Low/Friday Low with possible continuation down to 3619.50-3613.25 and depending on order flow there possible lower to 3600 - 3590 maybe 85-75 area.
On the opposite of course is if we hold this support and fail to get back in and accept in T+2 range under 3710-3700 in Globex or tomorrow RTH then we can see a squeeze to fill the gap in RTH and test higher levels, leaning a bit more to the downside personally but I will be watching for those two scenarios to play out.
** Key Areas to Watch: 3728.75-3725.25 // 3714.75-3709.75 // 3698.50-3695.50
ES has a bit more clear pathway to the downside could target Target confluence is at 3587ES, very deep but can get there in no time, crazy market!
This will turn today/tomorrow, otherwise cycles are inverted, crazy times!
If anyone is riding the futs, just trail it and keep it rolling on the spikes again and again till it stops working
I will leave it this the way it is.
#ES Futures 06.15.22 Daily Plan with LevelsFED Day! What will the market give us today? Yday we were not able to hold our Key Support of 3764.75-3760.50 as we expected because we were under T+2 low and had people trapped from Globex session above, we were able to get below and accept in lower range and we got the test of lower levels down to our next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and as mentioned we needed extra juice to get through that level and since it was almost towards the end of the day when we got there I did not expect much continuation, I did not expect that good of response from there right away either so I didnt trade it but we got what we got. I spent my day shorting from 65-60 area and had myself a great day. Today can be very tricky to trade as all FED days are because lots of eyes are watching and waiting, currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside T+2 range and seems like cleaning out sellers from above our 3764.75-3760.50 level. We have Retail Sales 8:30 and FOMC starting at 2, Key today is to manage expectations and not expect big moves until they prove themselves.
- Supports Today: 3747.50-3744.75 is our PM Support and the area of Yday close which will be important and current Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 as well as T+2 low
- Resistance Today: 3780.50-3776.75 is our current PM Resistance then 3791.75-3787.75 and our Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25 also our T+2 high area for today (from RTH not including Globex) is right at our 3825.50-3820.25 level.
> On The Upside continuing to hold above PM Support is a sign of strength, our position is currently under us below 3764.75-3760.50 level which if holds today can give us a test of higher levels at 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 if we get through those I will be watching next Key Resistance at 3809.50-3805.25 which is Prev Day Globex high area, watching for us to take it and hold or take it and come back in or fail to take. We should still have sellers in the market and I do see us testing the lower Key levels again at some point, will it be today or not we will have to see but I am managing my expectations to the upside until those levels start getting taken out and we hold over.
> On The Downside getting back under 3764.75-3760.50 will be our first signs of weakness and breaking our PM support will be a better downside confirm for me, if this happens im looking for a test of 3728.75-3725.25, Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and possibly a break of that to 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 and possibly next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 to be tested.
As Mentioned Fed days are tricky and we can even see both scenarios play out with them running it up to sell their position from below and then dropping the bid or going lower first trapping more people short to give them a push higher. Have to be patient and watch levels for breaks and continuation.
#ES Futures Daily Overview with Levels to Watch 06.14.22Yday we saw Key Support area of 3764.75-3760.50 hold on the first test, we did make another attempt at it before close and were able to reach next level down so we found acceptance in that lower range. At the close wholesale took in the supply under 3764.75 and used Globex to drive it up and sell higher, Globex inventory was mostly long all night until we found sellers at our Key Resistance of 3809.50-3805.25 and now we corrected it back to the close. Currently we are holding this 3764.75-3760.50 Key Support area and waiting for PPI release at 8:30. Looks like we are again set to open today under T+2 Low which is all the way back at 3896 so I would be very surprised if we dont see more selling today and at least test the lower levels down to 3714.75-3709.75 and maybe lower if we have enough sell volume. We had two days of big moves so set ups might require patients today.
- On The Upside continuing to hold this support at 3764.75-3760.50 can give us another push and test of 3780.50-3776.75 and maybe 3791.75-3787.75 those will be the areas to watch for continuation higher and of course to get any real move out towards that gap we would need to see us get through Key Resistance of 3809.50-3805.25.
- On The Downside we now have globex inventory built up in this 3809.50-3760.50 range and if we do break below and accept in the lower range then our levels to the downside are 3741.50-3744.75, 3728.75-3725.25 and next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75. If we have enough juice today we can see us take that and if we do then we will watch lower areas for response at 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 are the areas we can see response and next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75.
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The thing is that the technicals are showing strength. With a IBD RS rating of 94, ths stock price is n a confirmed uptrend. Today's price range is inside the previous bar. A breakout above yesterday's range is a pretty good buy signal for me.
PS: IBD is signaling a confirmed uptrend in the CME_MINI:ESM2022 .
ES bull flaggingSPX has a room room to stretch to 4170 while the ES is showing a breakout. SPX is the king, so 4180SPX must be taken to confirm, next stop will be a gap fill at 4300.
Im thinking its a bull trap, tomorrow will be a tell with a possible low in am and hold then move up into the 9/10th high
ES can push here for another test of 4205+-ES can push here for another test of 4205+-
Im exiting all my longs on that double tap (if that happens) and will add to short.
The next week range is 4045-4200. Breaking either level will bring 3900 and 4300 levels respectfully next.
SPX on the other hand could of topped as of Fri close.
S&P500 next move according to Cycle AnalysisAfter reaching the target in the previous analysis and confirming the reverse trend from downtrend to uptrend, according to my new analysis, we should reach a good target in the #S&P500 CURRENCYCOM:US500 around 4400. After that, it will reverse the uptrend to the downtrend again. Based on these trends and according to the Top Down Approach method, a basket of US stocks can be traded, as well as Dow Jones and Nasdaq. In fact, SP500 is used as a Leader for trading other symbols. Given the positive correlation between SP and Bitcoin, I expect Bitcoin to rise to around $ 43,000 and fall below $ 25,000 again.
Happy Trading