Estee Lauder’s 26% Plunge: Revenue Miss & All Short Targets Hit!Estee Lauder (EL) Stock Analysis:
Estee Lauder (EL) saw a dramatic 26% drop, marking a significant bearish turn as all short trade targets on the 15-minute timeframe were swiftly reached. The chart reflects intense selling pressure, with shares plummeting after disappointing earnings and cautious guidance.
Key Trade Details:
Entry Level: 88.29
Target Levels:
TP1: 87.89
TP2: 87.29
TP3: 86.58
TP4: 86.17
Stop Loss: 88.62
Key Market Insights:
Revenue Miss and Guidance Withdrawal: Estee Lauder missed revenue expectations, reporting a 4% YoY decline, and pulled its fiscal 2025 outlook, signaling incremental uncertainty in the Chinese market and Asia’s travel retail sector. The company now plans to provide only quarterly guidance.
Challenges in China and Travel Retail: Weak consumer sentiment in China and reduced demand in Asia travel retail, including low conversion rates in Hong Kong, led to a 5% drop in organic net sales, impacting overall performance.
Summary:
Estee Lauder’s sharp decline capitalized on bearish momentum, achieving all short trade targets quickly. The disappointing earnings, along with withdrawn guidance, underscore the headwinds Estee Lauder faces in a slowing global economy, particularly in Asia. This setup demonstrates the high-risk, high-reward potential for short-term trades in volatile stocks.
Esteelauder
EL | This is Ready for a Move Higher | LONGThe Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacture of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under Estee Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MAC, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda and Too Faced. Its channels consist of department stores, multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by Estee Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.
EL - Estee Lauder Cos: Is the end of the capitulation?up +5%.
I am buying right now, right here after this bounce of +5%.
no more than 5% to 7% of my portfolio.
I know that the stock has been completely decimated, they have high levels of debt, their profit margins have decreased from 6.9% to 4.2%, insiders have recently sold, and the dividend is not well-covered by the cash flow.
However, I have confidence in this technical rebound before the earnings announcement in 6 days.
Wish me luck, and I hope the dividend will cover the potential losses, lol.
$EL | Allocation | Market Exec | Technical Confluences:
- Fibonacci retracement since the beginning of NYSE:EL 's history, puts the price action at the 78% retracement level
- It coincides with a Demand Zone as can be seen across the price history
- Stochastics are in Oversold conditions from Monthly, Weekly, Daily, H4 and even H1
- Will likely put Buy Stop levels at the Interest Zone areas to target a move to the 50% Fibo Retracement of this drastic bear move
Fundamental Confluences:
- Deep discount on a well-renowned brand
- Earnings does not look too good at the moment but they do own some global brands names in beauty care
- Growth can be weak now, but do you see people stop putting on cosmetics and ignore their appearances when they go out? If no, this share is definitely worth a try
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Putting in 2 portions of my NYSE:EL allocation now with more orders to be placed on in the future
Long-Term value hold in my portfolio.
Remember, DYOR.
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
Microsoft & Estee Lauder Company Join Forces to Bolster AI TechThe Estée Lauder Companies (ELC) and tech giant Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) have unveiled a pioneering collaboration, heralding a new era of innovation and consumer engagement. This strategic partnership aims to harness the transformative power of generative AI to revolutionize product development, marketing strategies, and customer experiences across ELC's esteemed portfolio of over 20 prestige beauty brands.
Empowering Beauty with AI
At the heart of this collaboration lies the establishment of an AI Innovation Lab, a dynamic hub where cutting-edge generative AI capabilities, fueled by Microsoft's Azure OpenAI Service, will be unleashed to drive unparalleled advancements in beauty. By leveraging AI technologies, ELC seeks to forge deeper connections with consumers, anticipate trends with agility, and deliver products tailored to local preferences with unprecedented speed and relevance.
Accelerating Consumer-Centric Solutions
One of the most exciting prospects of this collaboration is the development of an internal generative AI chatbot, engineered to enhance marketing effectiveness on a global scale. This innovative tool harnesses advanced conversational AI to navigate ELC's vast reservoir of product and claim data swiftly, enabling brands to launch locally relevant campaigns at an accelerated pace. By deciphering social trends and consumer demands in real-time, ELC aims to cultivate more personalized experiences that resonate with modern beauty enthusiasts.
Redefining Product Innovation
Furthermore, ELC and Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) are spearheading efforts to revolutionize product innovation through the integration of generative AI tools into research and development processes. By leveraging AI-driven insights, scientists and product development specialists can swiftly respond to emerging trends and consumer preferences, expediting the creation of cutting-edge beauty solutions. This collaborative approach not only accelerates time-to-market but also fosters a culture of agility and innovation within ELC's renowned laboratories.
A Testament to Partnership
Jane Lauder, EVP of Enterprise Marketing and chief data officer at The Estée Lauder Companies, underscores the pivotal role of technology in amplifying the company's core strengths of quality products and immersive consumer experiences. By harnessing Microsoft's generative AI tools and expertise, ELC aims to unlock the full potential of its extensive data ecosystem, paving the way for enhanced consumer engagement and actionable insights.
Shelley Bransten, corporate vice president of Global Industry Solutions at Microsoft, echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the transformative impact of generative AI on the beauty landscape. Through close collaboration with ELC, Microsoft is committed to not only providing a platform for AI innovation but also nurturing deep partnerships to translate groundbreaking innovations into tangible realities.
A Legacy of Innovation
This visionary collaboration marks a significant milestone in the enduring partnership between ELC and Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), which first took flight in 2017. From the groundbreaking Voice-Enabled Makeup Assistant, empowering visually impaired users to confidently apply makeup, to the latest AI Innovation Lab, this partnership exemplifies a shared commitment to pushing the boundaries of innovation and inclusivity in the beauty industry.
As the AI-powered beauty revolution unfolds, consumers can anticipate a future where personalized experiences, sustainable practices, and cutting-edge products converge to redefine the essence of prestige beauty. With ELC and Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) leading the charge, the future of beauty has never looked more radiant or promising.
Estée Lauder Surges 6.6% on Analyst UpgradeEstée Lauder (NYSE:EL) is making waves with a significant 6.6% surge following an analyst upgrade from Bank of America. The upgrade, from Neutral to Buy, accompanied by a raised price target, underscores renewed optimism in the beauty giant's future prospects.
Bank of America's bullish stance hinges on Estée Lauder's ( NYSE:EL ) strategic pivot towards product innovation and market expansion. The analyst highlights Estée Lauder's recent initiatives, including the rollout of new derma lines, intensified marketing efforts for flagship brands like Clinique and Estée Lauder, rejuvenation of makeup stalwarts MAC and Bobbi Brown, and a targeted marketing push for high-end brands such as LeMer.
These strategic maneuvers, coupled with restructuring efforts and supply chain optimizations, position Estée Lauder for robust earnings growth. The analyst predicts a potential earnings per share (EPS) of $6 by fiscal year 2026, buoyed by anticipated sales leverage and operational efficiencies, even in the face of modest growth projections in key markets like China.
But is now the opportune moment to add Estée Lauder to your investment portfolio?
The market's response to today's news suggests a resounding yes. Despite its historically subdued volatility, Estée Lauder's sharp uptick indicates the market's recognition of the significance of this upgrade. While this boost may not fundamentally alter perceptions overnight, it underscores growing confidence in Estée Lauder's trajectory.
Reflecting on Estée Lauder's recent performance offers a nuanced perspective. The company's earnings report paints a mixed picture, with a notable beat on second-quarter expectations offset by a shortfall in earnings forecasts for the upcoming quarter and full year. However, amidst these fluctuations, Estée Lauder remains steadfast in its commitment to a top-line recovery, projecting a return to double-digit organic net sales growth in the latter half of fiscal 2024.
Moreover, Estée Lauder's proactive measures, including a restructuring plan aimed at enhancing profitability, instill optimism in its long-term resilience. While the stock may currently trade below its 52-week high, its upward trajectory since the beginning of the year signals momentum building within the company.
For investors eyeing Estée Lauder, the journey over the past five years serves as a testament to its enduring value. Despite recent fluctuations, the stock has maintained its allure, offering a compelling opportunity for long-term growth.
In conclusion, Estée Lauder's surge on the back of an analyst upgrade underscores its potential as a lucrative investment opportunity. With strategic initiatives poised to drive earnings growth and market expansion, Estée Lauder presents a compelling proposition for investors seeking exposure to the dynamic beauty industry. As the company continues to innovate and adapt, now may indeed be the time to add a touch of Estée Lauder to your investment palette.
Estee Lauder's Bold Restructuring Move: A Triumph Amidst HurdlesEstee Lauder ( NYSE:EL ) has emerged as a beacon of resilience in the cosmetics industry. The company's stock witnessed a remarkable surge of over 14% following the announcement of its second-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings, which exceeded analysts' expectations. The cosmetics giant also unveiled a strategic restructuring plan that involves job cuts, signaling a bold move to navigate the challenges of the current market landscape.
Earnings Beat:
Estee Lauder ( NYSE:EL ) reported second-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88, surpassing analysts' estimates. Despite a 7.4% decline in revenue from the previous year, the company's revenue of $4.28 billion also outperformed forecasts. This stellar financial performance comes at a crucial time for Estee Lauder ( NYSE:EL ), showcasing its ability to adapt and thrive in a changing market environment.
CEO's Vision:
CEO Fabrizio Freda articulated that Estee Lauder is at "an inflection point" and highlighted the progress made in the year's first half across various strategic priorities. Freda emphasized the reduction of inventory in the trade of Asia travel retail, improved working capital, strategic price increases, and disciplined expense management as key drivers of the positive results.
Strategic Restructuring:
Estee Lauder's ( NYSE:EL ) commitment to future growth is underscored by its decision to implement a Profit Recovery Plan, extending through fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The plan kicks off with immediate steps, including a restructuring that involves job cuts. The company aims to eliminate 3% to 5% of its workforce, impacting approximately 3,150 employees. This bold move aligns with Estee Lauder's ( NYSE:EL ) focus on enhancing efficiency and streamlining operations to drive sustained profitability.
Outlook and Projections:
Estee Lauder ( NYSE:EL ) projects a return to double-digit percent organic sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year. This optimistic outlook reflects the company's confidence in its ability to navigate challenges, capitalize on strategic initiatives, and capitalize on evolving consumer trends.
Market Response:
The market responded favorably to Estee Lauder's ( NYSE:EL ) earnings beat and restructuring plans, with shares surging 14.3% to $153.24 at on Monday. However, it's worth noting that, despite these gains, the stock is still down 41% over the past year. This discrepancy highlights both the challenges faced by the cosmetics industry and the potential for Estee Lauder to regain lost ground through decisive actions.
Conclusion:
Estee Lauder's ( NYSE:EL ) recent performance and strategic initiatives position the company as a resilient player in the cosmetics industry. The earnings beat and restructuring plan underscores Estee Lauder's ( NYSE:EL ) commitment to adapting to market dynamics and setting a course for sustained growth. Estee Lauder ( NYSE:EL ) will face challenges in the post-pandemic era, but investors and industry experts will closely monitor their progress.
EL longThe Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures and markets a wide range of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. The Company is the second largest in the sector after L'Oreal and its products are sold in countries and territories around the world.
The Estee Lauder stock is going to buy Tom Ford and IMO its stock can rocket up to $273 and more.
My trade levels
Entry: $233.44
Take profit: $273.79
Stop loss: $213.08
Further drops on Estee Lauder. ELWe are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
$EL Estee Lauder Over-extended$EL Estee Lauder looking over-extended recently. Expecting to see some mean reversion in the near term.
Bearish Options Activity Today:
Short Call Sale of $250/$270 strike January calls for $3.4M
Near term target: $240 ($220 possible by Feb)
Note: This is NOT investment advice.
Great Entry Point for COTYWe are seeing a great entry point for NYSE:COTY .
The company has been hit by the current crisis and the stock has plunged after the Earnings Report released this Monday 5/11. Investors have left their positions due to concerns around financial conditions, bad results and dividends on hold.
Currently, the stock is on its historical lows, which makes it a great entry. COTY announced a deal with KKR , and will receive an immediate $750M investment. The entire transaction could result in additional cash proceeds of approximately $3 billion . With this liquidity injection and a strong capital back-up, COTY is likely to strengthen its position against EURONEXT:OR , NYSE:EL , and other competitors. The current analyst price targets reiterated on 5/12 are between $8 (RBC Capital) and $6 (Deutsche Bank). Recent hedge fund activity is also in line with positive sentiment around COTY stock. For more details check the research tab in the stock details here at eToro.
I believe in COTY as a company with strong foundations because it is a strong global player:
#1 in fragrances
#2 in salon hair
#3 in color cosmetics
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