ATH from Historic Average PerspectiveHISTORIC AVERAGING
The point of historic averaging is to provide a long-term perspective on an asset’s price by calculating an average that considers all available historical data.
The simplest is Arithmetic All-Time Average
PineScript: ta.cum(close) / (bar_index + 1)
To get it we must add up all closing prices and divide by number of bars. (Bar_index + 1 because bar_index starts with 0, which can mess up calculation!)
It provides us with some useful information:
Long-Term Trend Identification
Current Price Contextualization - point of reference to assess how high is the current price than its historical Average
Exposes Long-Term Support levels - the historic average often aligns with significant support (True for Bitcoin particularly)
Since Arithmetic Averaging is more venerable to lagging, it made a significant gap from the lows:
If the weights weren't identical, the gap distance would have been less. So we can use other method of averaging for more precise alignments of the cycle Lows
Weighted Historic Average: This method assigns increasing weights to each bar over time, prioritizing later candles even more significantly. This method is particularly useful when you want to view the trend as influenced by more recent activity but still considering the entire data set. It may help in understanding price dynamics under growing market volume or volatility, as recent bars affect the average more prominently.
With such weighting method applied, the historic average better indicates long-term support levels making them more reliable to draw a relationship between current price and the Historic Average.
This post is not even about the rhyme of Weighted Historical Average with cycle lows.
If we divide closing price by WHA, we would get an idea how many times Bitcoin has been higher than the average during the times establishing All Time High.
Given the current uptrend, which shows potential to develop into a full-scale bull run, we can anticipate the next long-term ATH by monitoring the Close/Historic Average. As this metric rises and breaks above shaded levels, it signals continued momentum. Conversely, if it crosses below the first shaded range, this may indicate that a long-term ATH has been set, suggesting the market could be primed for the next significant correction phase.
Estimation
#analysis 54 - Time EstimationAlright, it's so closed to my estimation from last one. Now let's see if it'd go downward to the bottom.
Not sure if it'll break the lows below, but according to past two cycles few months ago, it's possible. So watch out if you got long position when it do structure break here.
Big Winners For Monday 8/30/21 According To My AIThe below is a list of the top estimates for tomorrow according to my AI program and I have included the estimate as well as the score that my AI has assigned to each pick. The higher the score, the more confidence has in the pick. I made SNTG the default chart just because it was the first pick on the list. For those of you who have been following my posts on here, I only post these when I do a big update and to also show you guys the progress of how the AI is getting smarter each time. A bit of a humble brag though is that I showed a bit of my process to John Ehlers and he approved so I'm happy about that. Feel free to share your thoughts and I will update these with the actual amounts at the end of Monday!
NASDAQ:SNTG
Score: 3838
Est: 7.78
EstPct: 50.38
NASDAQ:ADVM
Score: 1393
Est: 4.03
EstPct: 67.77
NASDAQ:STIM
Score: 1378
Est: 18.05
EstPct: 171.32
AMEX:FURY
Score: 909
Est: 4.13
EstPct: 450.79
NASDAQ:KPTI
Score: 454
Est: 7.58
EstPct: 35.70
NASDAQ:APRE
Score: 392
Est: 4.83
EstPct: 13.12
NASDAQ:QLGN
Score: 374
Est: 1.54
EstPct: 16.30
NASDAQ:EVFM
Score: 324
Est: 1.10
EstPct: 38.76
NASDAQ:ASMB
Score: 267
Est: 4.12
EstPct: 10.77
NASDAQ:VECT
Score: 246
Est: 8.31
EstPct: 17.42
Big Winners For Monday 6/12/21 According To My AIThis is my top 10 estimates for the highs of the day on Monday (6/12/2021) according to my AI program and for those users that have been following my ai idea updates, I have improved the ai quite a bit to provide much more accurate results and I have implemented a scoring system that ranges from +30 to -30 and this is essentially the AI confidence that the estimate will be reached so +30 is the highest confidence and -30 is the lowest confidence.
Symbol | Last Close | Estimated High | Est% | Score
CRIS | 8.01 | 10.10 | 26.11 | 25
WISH | 10.00 | 12.07 | 20.68 | 0
VIXY | 25.23 | 30.27 | 19.99 | 0
CAN | 8.72 | 10.29 | 17.97 | 15
TAL | 29.23 | 34.30 | 17.36 | 25
PROG | 3.21 | 3.70 | 15.39 | 10
SPCE | 35.10 | 39.40 | 12.24 | -25
RUN | 44.96 | 50.39 | 12.08 | -20
ESTC | 136.67 | 153.05 | 11.98 | -20
CAKE | 56.08 | 61.73 | 10.07 | 0
I have made CRIS the chart since it is at the top of my list and the indicators because they are my favorites. I will update this idea with the actual highs of the day of course. This is an ongoing series for me so make sure to share your opinions, positive or negative. Thanks for following!
AMD to hit $48 in 12 months### Company Summary
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is an American semiconductor company based in Santa Clara, California, that develops computer processors and related technologies for business and consumer markets. While initially it manufactured its own processors, the company later outsourced its manufacturing, a practice known as fabless, after GlobalFoundries was spun off in 2009. AMD's main products include microprocessors, motherboard chipsets, embedded processors and graphics processors for servers, workstations and personal computers, and embedded systems applications.
AMD is the second-largest supplier and only significant rival to Intel in the market for x86-based microprocessors. Since acquiring ATI in 2006, AMD and its competitor Nvidia have dominated the discrete Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) market.
Lisa Su (born 1969) is a Taiwanese-American business executive and electrical engineer, Ph.D. from MIT in 1994, and the CEO and president of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Early in her career, Su worked at Texas Instruments, IBM, and Freescale Semiconductor in engineering and management positions.She is known for her work developing silicon-on-insulator semiconductor manufacturing technologies and more efficient semiconductor chips during her time as vice president of IBM's Semiconductor Research and Development Center.
Su was appointed president and CEO of AMD in October 2014, after joining the company in 2012 and holding roles such as senior vice president of AMD's global business units and chief operating officer. She currently serves on the boards of Analog Devices, Global Semiconductor Alliance and the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association, and is a fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). Recognized with a number of awards and accolades, she was named Executive of the Year by EE Times in 2014 and one of the World's Greatest Leaders in 2017 by Fortune.
According to Form 10-Q of AMD filed, AMD is a global semiconductor company with facilities around the world. Within the global semiconductor industry, primarily offering:
* x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit (APU), chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units (GPUs), and professional GPUs; and
* server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products and technology for game consoles. AMD also licenses portions of intellectual property (IP) portfolio.
AMD's financial results for the second quarter of 2018 demonstrate continued success in the execution of AMD's long-term strategy for sustained growth. Net revenue in the second quarter of 2018 was $1.76 billion, a 53% increase compared to the second quarter of 2017. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to a 64% increase in Computing and Graphics net revenue and a 37% increase in Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom net revenue. The increase in the Computing and Graphics segment net revenue was primarily due to higher sales of AMD's RadeonTM and RyzenTM products. The increase in the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment net revenue was primarily due to higher semi-custom revenue as well as higher EPYCTM server revenue. AMD's operating income for the second quarter of 2018 was $153 million compared to an operating loss of $1 million in the second quarter of 2017. AMD's net income for the second quarter of 2018 was $116 million compared to a net loss of $42 million in the second quarter of 2017.
AMD continued to introduce new products in the second quarter of 2018, including premium notebook AMD Ryzen PRO APUs designed specifically for the commercial market. AMD also announced the availability of four models of AMD's 2nd Generation Ryzen desktop CPUs optimized for gamers, creators and hardware enthusiasts.
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of the end of the second quarter of 2018 were $983 million, compared to $1.18 billion as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2017.
AMD intends the discussion of financial condition and results of operations that follows to provide information that will assist you in understanding AMD's financial statements, the changes in certain key items in those financial statements from year to year and quarter to quarter, the primary factors that resulted in those changes, and how certain accounting principles, policies and estimates affect AMD's financial statements.
### Statistics
Shares Outstanding: 0.97B
Avg Daily Vol: 100.7M
Market Cap: 31.5B
52-Week High: $32.22
52-Week Low: $9.04
Forward PE: 42.71
Annual Div/Dividend Yield: $0.00 / 0.00%
Annual Rev: 6.9B
Inst Own: 68.1%
1-Month Return: 15.5%
3-Month Return: 45.7%
Next Earnings Report Date: 10/23/2018
Earnings ESP: NA
Revenue Per Employee: $742,133
Money Flow Ratio: 1.04%
### Profitability
Revenue Growth: 40.4% (Sector Average 9.8%)
Gross Margin: 36.1% (Sector Average 38.8%)
Return on Equity: 47.1% (Sector Average 7.1%)
Net Margin: 5.4% (Sector Average 4.9%)
### Debt
Current Ratio: 1.8 (Sector Average 2.9)
Debt-to-Capital: 67.1% (Sector Average 25.9%)
Interest Funding: 18.5% (Sector Average 5.1%)
Interest Coverage: 4.5 (Sector Average 4.2)
### Dividend
Dividend Growth: NA (Sector Average 12.8%)
Dividend Payout: NA (Sector Average 35.8%)
Dividend Coverage: NA (Sector Average 3.8)
Dividend Yield: NA (Sector Average 0.0%)
### Top Peer Companies
Avid Technology, Inc (AVID)
Cabot Microelectronics Corporation (CCMP)
Cirrus Logic, Inc (CRUS)
DIALOG SEMICON (DLGNF)
Diodes Inc (DIOD)
EMC Corp (EMC)
F5 Networks Inc (FFIV)
Falconstor Software Inc (FALC)
Intel Corp (INTC)
International Business Machines Corp (IBM)
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC)
Mellanox Technologies, Ltd (MLNX)
Netapp, Inc (NTAP)
Nvidia Corp (NVDA)
Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
PMC Sierra Inc (PMCS)
Unisys Corp (UIS)
### 12 Month Price Target
Mean: $39.01
High: $48.77
Low: $25.13
### Revenue Growth
Approximated quarterly revenue growth compared to the same quarter of the year before are as follows:
Q1 2015: -26.3 %
Q2 2015: -34.7 %
Q3 2015: -25.7 %
Q4 2015: -22.7 %
Q1 2016: -19.2 %
Q2 2016: 9.0 %
Q3 2016: 23.2 %
Q4 2016: 15.5 %
Q1 2017: 33.8 %
Q2 2017: 25.7 %
Q3 2017: 19.0 %
Q4 2017: 18.3 %
Q1 2018: 67.4 %
Q2 2018: 43.7 %
### Earnings Surprise
Positive (+10.3%)
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