Eurostoxx Ultimate Pivot PointsReading charts is just one part of trading a bear market, another highly significant part is a solid understanding of market psychology, heuristics and biases. Having spent 14 years in a QE fuelled bull market where there were few inexplicable events and certainly no major forced liquidation events, it is easy to understand why so many participants get so excited about two days of asset flows out of commodities and into tech names. Yes, the market can go higher from here, yes it can go lower, but calling a major bottom and repeatedly getting attached to these short squeezes is all part of the psychological conditioning that has been happening to many over the last 14 years. Therefore we would suggest waiting for extremes where there is nobody else left to buy or sell, this is where the odds are stacked firmly in one's favour. Patience. Discipline. And more patience.
Estoxx
Eurostoxx UpdateJust a quick note on the Eurostoxx specifically to highlight:
1. We are now most definitely trading below the 2 year uptrend that was causing the ongoing corner formations, good to get that out of the way
2. The index has found support temporarily off the March lows and various highs from 2020
3. If this breaks, which we expect it will sooner or later, the target is the lower end of the red trend channel at 3000 as we mentioned yesterday. Should things develop into something more akin to 08/09 then we’re looking at the blue line down at 2400.
In the meantime, we just wanted to bring more clarity to the picture today by indicating the ideal entry point for further shorts (highlighted in the orange circle), that crash protection is a must if net long in our opinion, crash protection is probably a good idea in 6 months puts, and that if we trade higher towards the back of the uptrend we could be looking at a repeat of something like the 3830 to 3500 move that we saw in the first two weeks of June.
If we get there, we do not think we stay there for too long so we are starting to compile a list of single stocks in both Europe and US that look like they would be attractive if the market were down a further 10%. Those that are on our value list and print any form of accumulation indicator on the platform will be our best foot forward for clients. Stay tuned.