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SPY S&P 500 ETF Potential W-Shaped Recovery Forming We may be witnessing the formation of a W-shaped recovery on the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – a classic double-bottom structure that often signals a strong reversal after a period of correction or volatility. Let’s dive into the technicals and what this could mean in the sessions ahead. 🔍 The Technical Setup: SPY recently tested key support around the $485-$500 zone, bouncing off that area twice in the past few weeks. This gives us the left leg of the W and the first bottom. After a modest relief rally to ~$520, we saw another pullback – but this second dip failed to break below the first bottom, a hallmark of the W-pattern. As of today, SPY is starting to reclaim ground toward the $517-$520 resistance zone. If bulls can push through this neckline area, especially with volume confirmation, we could see a breakout that targets the $530-$535 area in the short term. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: Support: $490-$500 (double-bottom support zone) Neckline/Resistance: $530 Breakout Target: $550 (previous highs) Invalidation: A break below $490 with volume could invalidate the W-recovery idea and shift bias bearish. 📊 Momentum & Volume: RSI is climbing back above the 50 level – bullish momentum building. MACD shows a potential crossover forming, hinting at a shift in trend. Watch for increasing buy volume as SPY approaches the neckline – that’s where the bulls will need to step up. 🧠 Macro & Earnings Angle: Don’t forget – we’re entering a heavy earnings season and rate cut expectations are still a wildcard. A dovish tone from the Fed and strong corporate results could be the fuel that sends SPY higher to complete this W-shaped recovery. 🧭 Final Thoughts: This is a high-probability setup if neckline resistance is broken cleanly. Wait for confirmation before going heavy – fakeouts are common in double-bottom scenarios. If we do get the breakout, we may be looking at a broader market rebound going into summer. 🔔 Set alerts near $525. A confirmed breakout could mean the bulls are back in charge.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
ARKK: when a breakout isn’t just a breakout-it’s a runway to $91On the weekly chart, ARKK has broken out of a long-standing ascending channel, ending a year-long consolidation phase. The breakout above $71.40, with a confident close and rising volume, signals a transition from accumulation to expansion. The move came right after a golden cross (MA50 crossing MA200), further confirming institutional interest. Price has already cleared the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements — and the 1.618 extension points to $91.40 as the next technical target. Momentum indicators like MACD and stochastic remain bullish with room to run. Volume profile shows low supply above $75, which could fuel an acceleration toward the target zone. Fundamentally, ARKK remains a high-beta, high-risk vehicle — but one with focus. The ETF is positioned around next-gen tech: AI, robotics, biotech, and automation. Assets under management now exceed $9.3B with +$1.1B net inflow in 2025. YTD return stands at 37%, and its top holdings (TSLA, NVDA, COIN) are back in favor. This isn’t just a bet on innovation — it’s diversified exposure to a full-blown tech rally. Tactical setup: — Entry: market $69.50 or on retest — Target: $80.21 (1.272), $91.40 (1.618 Fibo) Sometimes a breakout is just technical. But when there’s volume, a golden cross, and billions backing it — it’s a signal to buckle up.
CBOE:ARKKLong
by TotoshkaTrades
SOXL 1D — With a base like this, the ride’s worth itOn the daily chart of SOXL, since early March, a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed and is now in its activation phase. The left shoulder sits at $16.67, the head at $7.21, and the right shoulder at $15.11. The symmetry is classic, with volume stabilization and a narrowing range — all the elements are in place. The key moment was the breakout through the descending daily trendline around $19.00. Price didn’t just pierce the level — it held above it, signaling a phase shift. There was an attempt to break through the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $19.60, which led to a pullback — not on heavy selling, but on decreasing volume. This wasn’t a rejection, it was a pause. This pullback serves as a retest of the breakout zone and the 20-day moving average. The overall structure remains bullish: price stays above all key EMAs and MAs, RSI climbs past 60, and the candlestick structure is stable. Volume rises during up moves and fades during pullbacks — classic signs of reaccumulation. The measured target from the pattern is $32.00, calculated from the head-to-neckline height projected from the breakout point. As long as price holds above $18.40, the setup remains intact. A break above $19.60 with confirmation would open the door to acceleration. This isn’t a momentum play — it’s a setup months in the making. The structure is there, the confirmation is there, and most importantly — the price behavior makes sense. With a base like this, the ride ahead looks worth taking.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by TotoshkaTrades
4
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Lose $100K Support?!On the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 and is in its short-term descending channel. One can look for buying opportunities for Bitcoin from the channel bottom. If the resistance level is broken, the path to the rise and its reach to the level of $107,000 will be prepared for Bitcoin. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and capital management will be more important in the cryptocurrency market. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Bitcoin has been in the spotlight again in recent days, especially as its price fluctuates within the psychologically important range of $101,000-$102,000 and its fundamental indicators are sending mixed signals. The first and perhaps most important element in Bitcoin’s fundamental analysis is the accumulation trend by large financial institutions and corporations. According to data published by websites such as CoinShares and the Financial Times, more than $87 billion worth of Bitcoin is currently held by companies such as MicroStrategy, Tesla, Block, and ETFs, which is approximately 3.2% of the total BTC supply in circulation. This clearly shows that Bitcoin has established itself as a store of value in the portfolios of professional investors, although there is still no consensus on its function as a “digital gold”. In this regard, analysts such as Román González of A&G have predicted that Bitcoin could reach the $200,000 range by the end of the year; on the other hand, some more conservative analysts such as Jacqui Clarke believe that Bitcoin still lacks measurable intrinsic value and should not be viewed solely as an alternative asset. This conflict of views shows the depth of complexity in analyzing Bitcoin. From the perspective of onchain, or intra-network data, the picture looks a little more cautious. The volume of active addresses last week was in the 1.0-1.1 million range, which is lower than in previous bullish periods (such as late 2021). Also, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) index, which measures the potential profit potential of investors, fell slightly from 2.29 to 2.20, indicating that the market is somewhat cooling off from the short-term heat. Also, on June 22, more than 5,200 Bitcoins were removed from exchanges, which is usually a sign of long-term accumulation and a decrease in short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s behavior in the face of geopolitical crises shows signs of a change in the dominant market narrative. During the recent tension between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin fell by nearly 4%, unlike gold, which experienced significant growth. This challenges the assumption that Bitcoin is a “hedging” or “safe haven” asset and shows that BTC is still registered more as a risk-on asset in the minds of market participants. This is considered very important as investors look for tools to hedge inflation or protect against economic shocks. In terms of correlation with traditional markets, Bitcoin is also on a path to further integration with classic assets. The 30-day correlation index between Bitcoin and the S&P500 is now around 0.78, and academic studies predict that the correlation will grow to 0.87 at some point in 2024. This means that Bitcoin’s movements are more aligned than ever with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, interest rates, stock market conditions, and global liquidity flows. Therefore, in the current situation, the impact of US macro data or central bank decisions plays a decisive role in Bitcoin’s volatility. Finally, Bitcoin price prediction models in recent days also reflect this complexity. Websites such as Bitfinex, Changelly, and analysts from institutions such as Brave New Coin have estimated that Bitcoin could reach the $125,000-$135,000 range this summer if macroeconomic conditions remain stable, and even if institutional capital continues to flow and there are no macro crises, reaching $150,000 by the end of the year is not out of the question. However, such scenarios require maintaining the current level of liquidity in the market, the absence of drastic tightening measures by the Federal Reserve, and the control of geopolitical risks. In short, Bitcoin is in a situation where, on the one hand, its supporting fundamentals are stronger than ever; With institutional inflows, accumulation of long-term addresses, and reduction of inventory on exchanges. On the other hand, the market remains highly vulnerable to macroeconomic and political risks and continues to show volatile reactions. This situation has led to Bitcoin becoming not only a speculative tool or growth investment, but also gradually becoming a part of professional portfolios with a carefully composed risk management mix. Its medium-term outlook is positive, but with one important condition: stability in global inflation and continued institutional capital flows.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Luxury, War, and Clarity – This Is the Golden Reset.🟨 The Real Gold Era: Clarity While the World Burns 🟨 "While some bleed in the streets, others sip cocktails in the Bahamas. This is not a coincidence. This is the new world." Right now, we live in a time like no other. People are dying in wars they never chose. Currencies collapse. Nations threaten each other. And yet — capital flows, gold climbs, and the rich get richer. 🕰️ A war started long ago — and most never saw it: 2020–2022: They printed trillions. COVID shut down the world. Fiat was silently devalued. 2022–2023: Russia was cut off from SWIFT. BRICS started buying gold. The dollar was no longer untouchable. 2023–2024: Gold broke $2100… then $2400… now $3400+. Even high interest rates can't stop it. 2025: U.S. and Israel strike Iran. BRICS discuss a gold-backed currency. Trust in fiat? Gone. The Gold Era is no longer just metaphor. It’s the new battlefield. 💣 "War is loud. Wealth is silent." While bombs fall in the East, ✨ capital quietly moves to safe havens. While families flee, ✨ smart money finds gold, data, and sovereign positioning. While headlines scream chaos, ✨ traders make decisions in silence. 🌍 But here's the paradox: We also live in a world of unmatched abundance: You can build a brand from a phone. You can trade gold from a beach. You can learn SMC, AI, geopolitics — and use it to build freedom. You can escape the system, if you understand the structure. In this gold era, the true asset isn't just metal. It's mental clarity. Information. Sovereignty. The gold is you. 📉 This isn’t just about trading. It’s about knowing where we are in the timeline of collapse and rebirth. The markets don’t lie — they expose what’s really coming. And those who read them… can rise while others fall. 🧠 Final note: Not everyone survives a reset. But those who think in structure, who lead with clarity — they don’t just survive. They reposition. They build. They lead. 🟡 Welcome to the Real Gold Era. Where charts speak louder than news. Where truth is a position. Where you don’t wait for safety — you create it. — ✍️ GoldFxMinds – where structure meets truth. 📢 Disclosure: This analysis was created using TradingView charts through my Trade Nation broker integration. As part of Trade Nation’s partner program, I may receive compensation for educational content shared using their tools.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by GoldFxMinds
17
DRIP — Geopolitical Oil Risk Creates a Buying OpportunityDRIP (inverse 2x ETF on US oil & gas exploration/production) is approaching a key technical support zone. While oil may continue rising short term due to geopolitical tensions — especially US-Iran risks and Middle East instability — this short-term pressure could push DRIP lower toward the $5.00–6.00 area. That zone aligns with strong historical reversal points and trend support. From there, a rebound toward $12.00–20.00 is technically and fundamentally possible, offering 30–50%+ profit potential. I’m planning staged entries in the marked range, managing risk with awareness of commodity market volatility and global uncertainty.
AMEX:DRIPShort
by InvestWorld_777
Hold on, here is the real deal.District court ruling on the joint motion (June12) still pending—no update yet. Judge Torres’ ruling – could come any day; depends on district court docket. Appeals proceedings remain on hold until at least August 15, 2025. XRP spot ETF decisions delayed: SEC ETF decisions, comment periods suggest Franklin Templeton: very likely by late July ProShares: by June 25 Grayscale: likely October Bitwise: through June to October CPI must fall under 2.0% Oil must retrace to the $70s Fed must signal a real cut, not conditional pause DXY must fall below 103 Current War that we all are focused is going to be ended swiftly. Until then, Hold Your Horses!
CRYPTOCAP:XRPLong
by Jaeren_Gale
Rising Geopolitical Tension (Iran Conflict) Signals Market RiskMoving Partially to Cash (VEA, QQQ, TQQQ, SPY, TECL, SOXL) The global market is entering a high-risk environment. Geopolitical escalation, particularly the growing threat of direct US involvement in a military conflict with Iran, is pushing global uncertainty to new highs. Tensions in the Middle East, rising oil and gold volatility, and increased friction between major world powers all point toward a potential market breakdown. On the chart, VEA ETF is showing signs of topping out within a rising wedge pattern. Meanwhile, institutional funds are starting to reduce exposure to high-risk assets. I'm taking partial profits and shifting to cash across VEA, QQQ, TQQQ, SPY, SOXL, and TECL to preserve gains. Buy-back zones are set around 53.00, 48.00, and 44.00. In an environment of global escalation and rapid risk-off sentiment, active portfolio defense is more important than passive hope.
AMEX:VEAShort
by InvestWorld_777
SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline. If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone. SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to: -USA domestic conflict -International military conflicts -Technical chart bearish divergence -USA federal reserve interest rate news -Government and corporate news Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580. Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615. The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
Bitcoin Whales Going On Summer Vacation🚨 Wake Up, Crypto World! 🚨 🔹 Bernstein calls $200K 🔹 CNBC eyes $130K 🔹 BlackRock boasts IBIT is the fastest-growing ETF 🔹 Saylor claims $1M BTC 🔹 Thiel-backed crypto exchange Bullish - has confidentially filed for a US IPO … Does this sound like "Institutions secretly acquiring Bitcoin"? NO. This sounds like a desperate call for exit liquidity. The real accumulation already happened, behind closed doors, away from the headlines. Now they need buyers. Retail FOMO is their exit strategy. Don't be fooled enjoy the Summer Vacation. 🌴 #Bitcoin #Crypto #ExitLiquidity #MarketCycles #TakeProfits CRYPTO:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:MSTR
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by CassianDrake
BTC target months ago has been on point, "NEW" TargetsSo far our CRYPTOCAP:BTC 109 - 111k target has been MONEY! Bitcoin hasn't been able to close above it all!!! Showing Negative divergence on RSI & $ Flow on WEEKLY charts. "New" CRYPTOCAP:BTC prediction? Will stand by what we said previously. IMO there's good possibility we could see BTC going to the 170k area, extreme = 226K. Monthly RSI doesn't peak until it hits 90's BUT there's Negative Divergence forming. $ FLOW slowly diverging as well. VOLUME DYING on SPOT. Not so bad on Futures.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Testing Resistance Trendline - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price is currently testing a resistance trendline above ($593 to $595 price levels). SPY price in the medium-term has been uptrending since April and May 2025. SPY price in the short-term has been consolidating sideways, and a large volume breakout or breakdown has not occurred yet. The 12EMA (blue line) has been holding as support for 5 trading days. Resistance targets to the upside would be $598 to $600. The grey gap and the 26EMA (purple line) are downside support targets if a rally does not occur this month ($576 to $567). Breaking news and tariff trade deals are supposed to occur in June and July 2025.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
SP500 // Stock Market Still a Buy? Here’s My ETF ApproachUnlike the Forex market, in the stock market—even when we’re hitting new highs and running out of chart space—it still makes sense to continue accumulating positions in U.S. indices. For a more profitable and diversified approach, ETFs offer a wide range of options: SPY, TQQQ, QQQ, and international ones like VEA. Where do you trade stocks? I'm curious to hear what platforms and strategies others are using. If you have any questions about building a portfolio or selecting ETFs, feel free to reach out. Happy to share insights and help where I can. Wishing you consistency and strong returns.
BLUEBERRY:SP500Long
by InvestWorld_777
Europe’s Center is CRUMBLING: VGK on the Brink? 🚨 Europe’s Center is CRUMBLING: VGK on the Brink? 🚨 Europe’s elections just lit a FUSE! 💥 Poland (May 18), Portugal (May 18), and Romania (May 4 & 18) held off populists, but the center’s hanging by a thread—50% in Poland went right-wing, Portugal’s Chega is shaking things up. Immigration and globalization fury could rattle EU trade & policy. 📉 VGK ($75.53) is inches from its yearly high ($75.56)—ready to crash or soar? 💡 Trade Idea: Plot VGK price action with election dates (May 4, May 18, June 1, 2025) to spot volatility breakouts. Watch for support near $70 or resistance at $76. ❓ Your Move? Will VGK tank or rally on Europe’s chaos? Drop your trade below! 👇
AMEX:VGK
by DCAChampion