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🔥 Predicting Bitcoin's Price On The 2024 Halving: Dump Ahead?In this analysis I want to shed some light on an interesting relationship that I found between bear-market bottroms and the price of Bitcoin during the halving. This analysis is speculative and based on 2 previous occurences, so take it with a grain of salt. The relationship that I found is as follows: 2nd halving: price at halving = 300% off the bottom. 3rd halving: price at halving = 200% off the bottom. Percentages rounded to hundreds. Omitting first halving because market was not mature. So my assumption would be that the price on the 4th halving, the next one, would be 100% from the 15.500$ bottom, so around 31.000$ With BTC reversing after the ETF launch, a move towards 31.000$ is not even that far-fetched, since it functioned as a very important resistance of the majority of 2023 and therefore functions as a magnet. Do you think this is a reasonable analysis? Happy to hear your thoughts!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
10
🔥 Bitcoin: All Signs Pointing To Deep CorrectionOver the last few weeks I've been repeating the same message over and over: the ETF launch is NOT a moment to buy and will most likely lead to a short-term correction. The ETF, combined with long-term resistances & bearish divergence made it a statistically bad time to buy. After a ~16% correction from the top, we're now trading around the 41k area. In my view, we're soon going to test the real support of the 4 month bull-trend: the 40k support. The battle will be fierce, but I expect the bears to pull through. 40k will be lost and a bigger correction is due. My target for the next couple of weeks is the bottom yellow support of the channel.
Short
by FieryTrading
7
The ETF AftermathIt has been 1 year almost to the day since my last publication and what a 12 months it has been. I previously laid out the case for a pending future recession but not before we saw massive regular bullish divergence play out on the monthly time frame for Bitcoin. Since then we've seen a 187% move in BTC, a 25% move in the S&P 500 and every commentator, pundit and analyst confident that a recession has been avoided and a soft landing inevitable. I'm here now telling you that I believe it to be no coincidence that the previous fundamental legacy events of which bitcoin has experienced in its past, once in Dec 2017 and the other in April 2021 has resulted in massive price corrections of 83 and 53% respectively within days of the CME and IPO announcements. Albeit the likelihood of such massive corrections are lesser given where we are in the macro cycle I do believe a sizable correction will occur days following this announcement. What is of significant interest on the chart is the previous macro fibonacci extensions of the precious 2 cycles. That being a confluent correction at the 0.5 fib level and seeing a 40% and 72% correction there after. A 0.5 extension in this current cycle would suggest a monthly wick above $48500 followed by again a sizable correction. To pontificate as to the extent of this correction I pose the following possibilities. -A 30% drawdown to the 200 SMA, a support level which has served Bitcoin well historically -A 40% drawdown to the 6 and a half year support line of macro lows. -Or an unthinkable 70% correction somewhere around the previous bear market low, 2017 bull market high and the resistance held in July 2019 and Aug 2020. For this to take place we need to consider some very worst case scenarios and evaluate the current macro/geopolitical landscape. -Escalation of war in Russian Ukraine. -Escalation of war in Israel Palestine. -Military development of China's desire to remove Taiwan's international independence. -The largest inversion of the 10 year 2 year yield curve in 40 years. -The largest contraction of US M2 money supply since the great depression. -A continuation of what is already a 50% crash in China's real estate market. -A UK real estate crisis once affordability ceases as mortgages need rolling over after a 10,000% increase in interest rates. -A US real estate crisis as 11 monthly falsified unemployment data is realised -The energy and manufacturing crisis in europe compounded by the highest debt to GDP ratio in its history -A Hollywood presidential election between a criminal and a dementia patient. My point is the macro landscape is looking unpredictable and the TA has much confluence. This feels very much like it did in the beginning of 2020 just before the un-inversion of the yield curve and the then pending recession. It's almost like something globally needs to be orchestrated in order to create an excuse to lower rates and roll the debt over for another 4 years!! Who knows it might even be a cyber attack and CBDC implementation ;-) Either way Bitcoin will still be doing its thing. Keep yourself and those satoshi's safe.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MrGoose83
Other things to think aboutMorning folks, So, there some some jokes on the market already that BTC is becoming a stable coin... Indeed volatility has dropped drastically. But this could easily explained. If nobody is buying right now but all selling offers are swallowed by ETF whales - where coin should move? For instance, only BlackRock as bought in a single session this week more than 11K BTC. This is 10 times more than mined per day (900 BTC). Think about - how technical analysis could be applied for market right now? We continue to point that appearing of ETF is part of a big plan to take government control over the crypto markets. After some time free BTC float will be locked on ETF accounts. Exchanges that trade cash BTC (not ETF shares) will start loosing their business as turnover of cash BTC will drop miserably.... For now, we have H&S pattern that we've discussed previously and keep watching over it. If ETFs will keep supporting market from further drop, we should get upside bounce. Thus we consider 45-45.2K area for potential short position. For now we do not see many things to do. No good bullish signals either for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
GOLD|Important areas of supply and demandHello friends, I hope you are well. We have the gold chart in the one-hour time frame. Yesterday we said that we will wait if the support zone is broken down, the next target is the zone (2005-2008). Now in this area, with the formation of candlestick patterns, it has moved upwards. The areas that are important for us are the bottom of the previous broken area (2013) and the next area of the origin of the downward aggressive movement, i.e. the price range (2024-2028) for sell positions. If we lose the support area (2008-2005), our next target is the support area (1990-1995). ​
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
3
🔥 How The Gold ETF Can Predict Bitcoin's Performance After ETFIn many of my recent BTC analyses I've been talking about my view on the ETF. My prediction was that the ETF would be a sell-the-news event and mark a local top. Thus far, my view has been correct. In this analysis I want to take a look at the Gold ETF and its effect on the short- and long-term price movement of the underlying asset Gold. My short-term view on both ETF launches is as follows: - Whales (big banks and the like) buy the rumour. Likely, they have more knowledge about the ETF launching than the retail investors. - ETF launches, whales create hype around the ETF to lure retail in. - Whales sell their assets to retail, which drives the prices down. As per Bitcoin, the correction has just started in my view. We can go much lower from this point. However, this ETF is great news in the long-term. As seen on the bottom chart, Gold went up for almost 7 years after the ETF launch. I doubt that BTC will go up for 7 years, but the statistics don't lie. An ETF is a great way to lure more traders to the market. Think about it, how many more people will buy crypto during bull-markets when it's as accessible as a stock? This ETF could very well put increasing bullish pressure on Bitcoin's price, potentially bringing the next-bull market top to unforeseen highs. A man can hope. Share your thoughts about the short- and long-term price action of BTC after the ETF.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FieryTrading
17
BITCOIN weekly roadmapGood time friends, I hope you are great. According to last week's analysis, Bitcoin reached the range of $48,000 twice and could not go beyond this range.And from this area, it started its falling movement, this fall could be predicted both technically and the news that has come for Bitcoin during the last week. Bitcoin is forming MTR in the daily time, it has broken the upward channel that we had downwards, the last bottom that I marked with a dashed line on the chart, below this range we also had a close candle. In general, I see Bitcoin as bearish, this week I could not find a safe area for selling positions so that we can take swing selling positions. But we can have buying positions in the range of (40000-41000) and (39400-39800) by getting appropriate approvals, if there is an opportunity for selling positions, I will inform you in the next analysis.
Short
by Golden_Star1994
1
15/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $48987.12 Last weeks low: $45231.94 Midpoint: $41476.76 Following such a historical week with the approval of the BTC ETF's on Wednesday 10th of January. BITCOIN reached a local high of 49K, since then price has fallen towards 41.5K (15% drop). Price action this week is hard to predict as the ETF narrative has been driving BTC and crypto for quite a while now, with this even over and price falling after the news broke we are now at a crossroads where being bullish here could easily be punished, the halving is months away and the majority of smart money have made nearly 3x gains in one year predominantly due to the ETF narrative and the selling pressure is now high as investors have made substantial gains. On the other hand we have BlackRock who just acquired $10m (11,500 BTC) and other funds looking to do the same, FOMO in these situations can play a huge part as retail investors simply won't want to take the risk and see prices fall lower before buying as they're scared prices will just leave them behind soon. ETF funds obviously want to buy cheap and they are the market makers which would indicate a want for lower prices. A 30% drop is common place in a bull market, BTC would therefore go from 49k to 34K which is nearly in line with the 33K FVG which seems the logical target to me. I think if we see that level it would be towards the end of the week/ next week.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
BTC Market Update 14th January Post the spot ETF approval, there was a notable surge in significant inflows marked by high volumes. However, a distinct trend emerged with the redemption of AMEX:GBTC , highlighting two crucial points: first, there has been selling pressure on GBTC, and second, the anticipated inflows were lower than initially expected. Weekends often witness limited liquidity, and order books are less robust, implying a potential gradual decline until further clarity emerges. While a correction in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD seems probable, especially following an uninterrupted rally, such fluctuations are deemed normal in market behavior. During the weekend, GBTC couldn't execute sales, and BTC experienced a drop from 49K to 43K within 24 hours, partly influenced by Larry Fink's positive remarks on an ETH ETF, leading to a more than 20% rise in ETHBTC. However, GBTC is expected to resume selling on Tuesday. A second downturn is anticipated when GBTC announces outflows for yesterday. Contrary to the observed $94M outflow for GBTC, it pertained to Wednesday, preceding its going live. Thursday's outflows likely reached the hundreds of millions, already sold into the market via CME futures and BITO. Authorized Participants (APs) sell futures and manage BTC on a T+1 basis. People observed a $94M outflow for GBTC, but that was actually for Wednesday, prior to it going live. The outflows for Thursday are probably in the hundreds of millions, already sold into the market via CME futures and BITO. The Authorized Participants (APs) sell futures and then handle BTC on a T+1 basis. The advisable strategy for the time being is to adopt a patient approach, observing the market without immediate action. A prudent course of action is to wait and reassess the situation.
by TheArabianWhale
🔥 Bitcoin Bulls Holding By A Thread: What's NextIn my recent Bitcoin analyses I've talked about the fact that I expected the Spot ETF announcement to be a sell-the-news event, helped by two important resistances lying at the 48k-50k area. See below for my in-depth analyses: As expected, Bitcoin has reversed from the 48k area and is currently trading at 43k-ish. The bullish trend is still not broken, so there's some hope left for the bulls. In order to fully confirm my bearish bias, I'm waiting for BTC to fall through the yellow area of support. This support has been holding since early December, so it would definitely be a long-term shift if it would break. If we will close a weekly candle below 40k, there's a decent probability that we will move towards the bottom support of the diagonal channel (see first analysis), potentially even lower. As mentioned before, this bearish move is likely the last one before the "real" bull trend starts. BTC has historically always dumped in the first months before/after the halving, so this potential dump is nothing out of the ordinary and will likely function as a spring towards new all-time highs.
Long
by FieryTrading
25
XRPUSDT to $1.22 this year?2 factors drive my analysis for why I'm forecasting XRP to hit $1.22 this year. First: XRP ETF Speculation from Blackrock. - BlackRock CEO Larry comment on the potential for an XRP ETF on Fox Business interview “I can’t talk about that!” when asked about an XRP ETF. This left investors and analysts parsing his words for hints of BlackRock's possible foray into XRP 2nd: Technical Analysis 2 sides of the coin for this, as seen by my bullish green price action arrow forecast and bearish red price action arrow forecast. However, i'm leaning more towards longs, due to fundamentals where despite volatility and FUD, the overall momentum is hopeful bullish. At the time of posting - 14Jan 4.30 SGT, XRPUSDT is on the weekly support -resist level. Previous week's candle closed bearish, however, with a long wick showing buyers strength. This week looks to be ending on a green candle. Long sell wick indicates sellers strength. Weekly is gonna close with a sideways momemtum, as market is hesistant and bith bear and bulls are looking to see each others next move. I however, expect week support to be respected, and pump up to week's resist after some consolidation, to retest March 22 week resist zone. If price retest Mar 22 resist zone and forms support on 0.748, I'm expecting XRP to push all the way to 1.22. While bullish for $1.22 target, that'll probably be pre ETH ETF, to which, a massive liquidity grab will bring XRP back to 0.5-0.8 zone.
Long
by lesnermj
Cardano ($ADA) Gains Momentum as Next Big ETF Candidate Cardano ( CRYPTOCAP:ADA ), the renowned blockchain platform, is gaining significant attention as a potential candidate for future exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. With the cryptocurrency community actively discussing the approval of altcoin-based ETFs following the green light for Bitcoin ETFs, Cardano has emerged as a front-runner in this new wave of investment products. Cardano’s Stability Attracts ETF and Investor Focus With the introduction of ETFs, an institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is anticipated. Cardano, known for its unique technological approach and solid community support, is a promising option for these investors. A recent thread by a prominent Cardano blogger, @cardano_whale, addressed to his 143,300 followers, highlights the reasons for this growing interest. Cardano’s peer-reviewed, stable, and lightweight protocol, combined with a unique blend of UTXO and PoS in its consensus mechanism, sets it apart in distinctly solving the blockchain trilemma. The protocol’s resistance to centralization, evidenced by its inclusive and transparent ADA distribution, makes it an attractive option for investors wary of manipulation. Unlike many other cryptocurrencies, founding entities control only about 10% of the CRYPTOCAP:ADA supply. Moreover, Cardano’s staking design is touted as one of the most decentralized, with many validator nodes enhancing the network’s security against potential attacks. Cryptocurrency ETFs Pave Way for Broader Adoption Cardano’s appeal is not limited to its robust security and decentralized nature. The platform’s ongoing developments in scalability and functionality position it as a rapidly evolving and feature-rich blockchain. This evolution is crucial for supporting a diverse range of decentralized applications (dApps), a sector that has seen exponential growth. The adaptability of Cardano is further enhanced by its support for multiple programming languages, which broadens its appeal to a wider developer community. The recent onboarding of hundreds of native tokens and DeFi applications underscores the ecosystem’s dynamic nature. Combining these factors and programmable ADA scarcity cements Cardano’s status as a leading dApp ecosystem with solid organic growth. The conversation around Cardano ETFs is taking place against the backdrop of an evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency investment products. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has allowed other cryptocurrencies to follow suit. Industry experts, such as Valkyrie’s co-founder Steve McClurg, have expressed optimism about the potential approval of ETFs for other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) and XRP. Cardano is already making strides in this direction, backing the Swiss-registered 21Shares Cardano ETF and participating in the OTC-traded Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) portfolio. The establishment of such ETFs could significantly enhance the accessibility and attractiveness of Cardano to a broader range of investors, particularly those from traditional finance sectors looking to diversify their portfolios with digital assets.
Long
by DEXWireNews
1
Maintaining purchases against the background of taking 2500And so we took another height, I want to consider further scenarios. As expected, the bulls made a new attempt to open the year above 2500, but against the background of powerful statistics, the amers kept the price in the neutral zone, which will give numerous disruptions this year and reduce the impact of ETF approval. But against the background of the closing of the last annual candle with growth and the opening of the year above 2250, the probability of maintaining purchases until the middle of the quarter prevails. To date, the opening level of a new weekly candle will play an important role. In the case of an opening above 2500 in the new week, we can expect a test attempt of 2750-2900. In the case of a lower opening, there is a chance of bears hitting the 2400 retest with an attempt to break through to 2250 and further buy-off, or a drop in volatility with an increase in purchases in the second half of the week. The probability of the first scenario significantly prevails in this regard and the statistics coming out on Wednesday and Thursday will play an important role. Many alts have opened the year above key resistances, which provides support for many coins, despite the dynamics of the tops. This year, the dynamics of coins will vary significantly depending on the opening level of the year. Due to the high unprocessed goals, the coins that I relied on in the current difficult market proved very stable. According to pros, we came close to the test of the first take, but unfortunately we did not have time to take the main level at 0.75 against the background of the rollback of the cue ball. I have fixed the largest part of the position and will look for points for refilling, while the probability of a repeat test of 0.30-35 is high, from where we can expect a new swing of the trend with goals above 0.75. They are preparing to take new heights of df cvp uft, the nearest goals for which are up to 70-100% from current levels. Also, chz is sent to the long-awaited 0.1 test, against which the fantokens are once again preparing for breakouts, among which atm and asr have the highest unprocessed targets. I am also considering ooki vib oax drep for work, which also have immediate unprocessed goals of 100%+ and stably compensate for the rollbacks of the tops.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Strateg_
BTC/USD pullback expected, now heading towards 200K!Analyzing the BTC/USD scenario reveals an expansion of the bearish phase with a test of support at 40,980. The initial resistance is at 45,465, but expectations suggest the possibility of an extension of the negative trend towards new lows at 39,485. From a daily volatility perspective, the cryptocurrency shows a value of 2.79%, with a weekly performance registering at -3.16%. The reasons behind Bitcoin's decline after the historic spot ETF approval are as follows: There was strong speculation leading up to the ETF approval; now that it's approved, there is less for people to speculate on. Many expected a surge to $55,000 after approval, and since that didn't happen, people are either taking profits or selling in disappointment. Bitcoin surged from $15,400 to $49,000 with FOMO elements related to the ETF, so a correction was naturally due. This could be a sell-the-news event for many who bought Bitcoin before it reached $20,000. Money is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum. People are selling BTC and buying ETH because they anticipate an ETH spot ETF is coming, and since ETH hasn't surged much, they are moving to an undervalued asset. Positive aspects that many people overlook: The Bitcoin ETF generated a total volume of $4.3 billion, a historic result for any ETF in history. Now that Bitcoin is available to all Wall Street traders, trillions will flow into the market over time. The Bitcoin ETF instills trust in cryptocurrencies. Personal opinion: The Bitcoin ETF will become increasingly popular on Wall Street, and we will see companies allocating billions to Bitcoin over time, easily propelling BTC to $100,000 - $200,000+. Following the SEC approval of the first Bitcoin ETFs, we observed a temporary dip in BTC's value, dropping to around $48,000 before recovering a significant portion of the weekly movement and slipping below the previous week's highs. Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market reflects a negative trend, with Ethereum standing out positively compared to other cryptocurrencies. Thanks to ETH's strength and BTC's weakness, the ETHBTC pair exhibits a +17% performance this week, approaching the technical price level of 0.06. BTC (49 weeks on the rise) TRX (7 weeks in decline) ETH (49 weeks in decline) DOGE (49 weeks in decline)
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Bitcoin(BTC): We Had A Drop!!Bitcoin rejected fully FWB:48K and reclaimed $45K zone as well!! Our weeks-long game plan is working very perfectly, and the price is moving just as we have been predicting it to move. With that being said, we have had so far 7% market price movement since the entry zone and 14% market price movement since the FWB:48K zone, which we have been monitoring for quite some time. With that being said, we also see that during Asian session, BTC stayed in the lower zones without any impulse to upper zones, which is good sign of further downward movement to come from here (maybe with small correction to upper zones) As always, "buy the rumours, sell the news." - Ethereum ETF is next??
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
2