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$BYC gap filled & more dataGood Morning/Afternoon Update The CRYPTOCAP:BTC GAP was FILLED yesterday. 38k is minor support, don't expect a stand there but bounce possible. Dotted lines are Fibonacci levels. #BTC 37k price target very close. #Bitcoin 32k is a stretch but anything is possible with a volatile asset. Bearish moving avg crossover is shown by the yellow Circle ------ Shown elsewhere, see profile for more info: A big X account speaks about positive divergence on 4hr chart. Futures shows nothing of the sort. Spot #BTC shows TINY divergence but NOT what should be used to trade or step in, IMO. Bounce? Maybe, we said CRYPTOCAP:BTC is at small support Don't see any signs of turnaround for #bitcoin yet. Sell volume is reducing, that's a +.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
🔥 Bitcoin Lost HUGE Daily Support: Beginning Of The EndIn my recent analyses I've written several times that I expected the ETF launch to be a major top, which has played out perfectly thus far. Furthermore, I indicated that the 41.2k-40k range as a major area of support for Bitcoin. As of now, BTC is making a lot of effort to penetrate said support. In case BTC doesn't reverse from here, we're going to see a major daily support around 41.2k broken for the first time since early December. This looks bearish. Seems to me that the break of 40k is a matter of time. Could be either today or in the next few days. We're likely seeing the start of some kind of major sell-off that will occur over the next few weeks. Time will tell.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
28
My 2023 Bitcoin ShortSince September 2023 Bitcoin has been in a rally predicated on the Bitcoin ETF launch. The chart has setup in accordance with my technical rules to finally short (bet against) the price action. I am also going to use this post to expand upon my broader bearish outlook on Bitcoin at present and into the future. I was definitively Bullish on Bitcoin in Q1 if 2023 (see linked past Bitcoin posts here on Tradingview) but I am now of the opinion this rally has stalled and will reverse. -The Trade:- Bitcoin has hit a MAJOR Resistance of the 50% Retracement from the All Time High to the November 2021 low at 42235 (see chart below) which I have been noting in my Weekly Livestream all year. Price overshot the level but as we go into this weekend price will close above or below it to reject or confirm it as Resistance. This Sunday night Weekly bar close will affect my outlook. Within the "impulse" move off the recent high the 50% level is 42457 and is remarkably aligned with the wider 50% level. The first profit objective of my short it the 50% of the September onward bullish trend at 34800 but will be a partial take profit with some left on for more bearish action. If price closes back above the 50% Retracements this weekend and/or a new recent high is made then it is likely I will close my short and re-evaluate. To express this trade I am not "shorting Bitcoin" proper but rather buying Puts on AMEX:BITO with expirations in June 2024. Weekly 50% Retracement view: -Bitcoin ETF: "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News"- I remain of the opinion that the Bitcoin ETF Launch will be a "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" type event. Much optimistic speculation has been placed upon the prospect of "Boomers Buying Bitcoin" because now they (retirees and institutions) can purchase Bitcoin in their retirement accounts. As I noted, I am expressing my trade using BITO which is a Bitcoin Trust instrument. There are already plenty of Bitcoin derivative products available for typical investors to use. Ergo, it is not obvious to me how an ETF launching will change the landscape significantly. Furthermore, I am reminded of a similar event in the past; the launching of CBOE Bitcoin Futures. Futures on Bitcoin launched on December 17th, 2017 literally marking that high and the end of that rally. -Price Outlook: Things are Different Now?- The bullish case for Bitcoin now even after the ETF launches is the coming Halving Cycle. Everyone note that it has created loosely bullish price action 3 out of 3 past times and will likely do so again. First, I do not thins 3/3 is statistically significant. Second, causation or correlation? Was it the Halving Cycle that made Bitcoin bullish or just the fact that it has been going up all this time anyway? One must acknowledge that Bitcoin was born and grew in a 0% interest rate environment which no longer exists. That fundamentally changes the amount of capital that is being infused into Bitcoin which created the 2021 rally. People like to share historical charts and then superimpose them to current price action. Most social media posts you will see are bullish because those are the ones that get the most engagement. No where else have I seen this glaringly obvious (to me) comparison of the current rally in context of the 2019 price action (below). I recall distinctly at that time that everyone was convinced the months prior were just a small hiccup and the new ATH rally was underway. Instead, we had a major economic event (COVID) to come that would push Bitcoin back down to close to the bear market lows again. 2019 versus 2023 -Future Outlook: What is Bitcoin?- The question, "what is Bitcoin?" has been asked for over a decade. I myself became interested in Bitcoin as a "tool for human freedom" that made sense to me from my Information Technology background and Libertarian political leanings. However, I have sadly watched as Bitcoin has been "normalized" in favor of "mainstream adoption" to the point we have reached now where large institutions buying Bitcoin is heralded as an accomplishment. That was never the point... as I see it nor as Satoshi's whitepaper wrote. Over the last few months I have consumed the mainstream (of Bitcoin Maximalist) social media posts and derived that the opinion of Bitcoin is NOT one of replacing the fiat dollar nor disrupting the traditional financial system. Instead the memes have been centered around some flavor or "Buy it now before the price goes higher!" Lost are the memes of yesteryear about Bitcoin combating inflation (due in part likely to the fact that the Fed's actions are actually yielding desired results). The memes around Bitcoin during this rally are frankly reminiscent of Dogecoin COINBASE:DOGEUSD TO THE MOON!!! When I attended the first Bitcoin conference in New York in 2011, we were all excited to do something never done before: buy lunch with Bitcoin. A shop down the street from the hotel venue (which at that time could only hold about 250 people) had setup a terminal to accept Bitcoin as payment. This was revolutionary at the time (there were no online payment apps such as Venmo, Zelle, or Apple pay yet invented). Two things happened: Confirmations were slow. A long queue began to develop as people waited for payments to go through. We got hungry. I sat at a table with Jesse Powell, the hitherto future founder of Kraken, who I estimated was sitting on 10s of thousands of Bitcoin... who paid for his lunch with US Dollars. What I learned in 2011 about Bitcoin was: The technology is slow and cumbersome for transaction volume People that own Bitcoin will not spend it Nothing has fundamentally changed on those points in 12 years despite the smartest of technical and economic experts' best efforts. If we look at the average confirmation time for Bitcoin it stands at 64 minutes and the average transaction fee is $25.11. That latter number has been increasing dramatically since the start of November. It is not because of the bullish rally (which began in September). It is because of the failure of Lightning Network. Lightning network was supposed to fix these technical limitations of speed and fees with Bitcoin by adding a layer on top of Bitcoin. Unfortunately, in late October experts discovered a major vulnerability in Lightning Network's programming that would allow nefarious actors to steal Lightning Network Bitcoin. Since then, over half a decade of work and hopes put into Lightning Network have been dashed as the developers now begin to look at a new implementation. The failure of Lightning Network in no way means "Bitcoin is dead." The Layer 1 Bitcoin network is robust as ever. Bitcoin just remains terribly unsuited to be the replacement for global currency. But as I noted above, it was never going to be because no will spend money today that they believe can buy more stuff tomorrow. It is great for the buyer to wait and buy two hamburgers next week for the price today... but bad for businesses that make hamburgers who will go out of business next week if no one buys hamburgers this week. So what is the "use case" of Bitcoin? If we cite that Al Gore invented the Internet in 1985, when the Internet was 13 years old (like Bitcoin) people were using it to send email, host databases, and order goods and services. We were unaware of the true future use cases of the Internet but many of these uses were already underway and people and businesses were using it to save money and/or sell more goods and services. The Internet was a wealth generation machine: it created value. So it pains me to acknowledge now that Bitcoin has settled on a single use case: "personal wealth generation" and rather than generate new wealth it instead acts as a vacuum of capital. TL;DR: The ETF launch will be a "Sell the News" event. I am now of the opinion that Bitcoin has lost its way to being a disruptive technology. I am of the opinion that this rally will not make a new All Time High.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
124
🔥 Bitcoin Spot ETF Approved: DUMP ALARM 🚨After yesterday's false start, Bitcoin's long anticipated ETF is finally here. However, it remains to be seen whether this ETF approval will be bullish or not. In the long-term, definitely. Price action over the next few weeks/months is likely bearish. As mentioned before, I'm expecting a short swift pump towards 48,000$ before hitting two major resistances and dump. Reasons for this bearish view: - Strong pump into news. Buy the rumor, sell the news? - Top yellow resistance of the channel - 48k resistance, last major resistance before the ATH. - The ETF approval is a perfect bull-trap for retail traders. Whales have already bought their Bitcoin's in the last year. The bottom support of the channel seems like a decent bearish target. Potentially even 30k. I will switch from bear to bull if we can get a weekly close above 50k. This indicates that the 48k resistance has been broken and will decrease the probability of a fake out. Happy to be proven wrong. For now, be careful for high volatility.
Short
by FieryTrading
53
BTC futures dictate price, people still don't get itSince the price action reversal on CRYPTOCAP:BTC it has been struggling. (also sold CRYPTOCAP:ETH & CRYPTOCAP:LTC few days later) There is way too much positivity in this space for what's happening. #bitcoin is at the top portion of the gap, but may not hold and will likely fill & trade lower. We have been huge proponents of using futures data vs spot #BTC If you only use spot CRYPTOCAP:BTC you're at a disadvantage RSI looks similar but look @ $ flow Futures #BTC showed cracks in mid/late December #Bitcoin Fibonacci 50% from RECENT trend low = 37k 50% from 12/22 low = 32
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
1
22/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43584.42 Last weeks low: $41935.80 Midpoint: $40287.19 With the BTC sell off underway post ETF approval, we start the week hovering just under the previous weeks low of 41.5k. This area is the key S/R zone in my opinion and for now it looks like BTC bulls are struggling to reclaim that level. I previously stated in the last weeks outlook that there is a strong magnet pulling price towards the 33K area FVG . To reach that area and react positively off the level would be very bullish and should begin the next leg up towards 50K+ going into the run up for THE HALVING . For now BTC bleeding is causing the altcoin market to do the same, however as normal altcoins do tend to bleed against BTC as well for example SOL is now sub $90 and falling, good opportunities will present themselves in the coming days/weeks for the next leg up in the Bullrun but patience is key. In conclusion the ETF news was a sell the news event, Blackrock and others are scooping up large sums of BTC at discounted rates as market makers push the prices lower. That in turn drags altcoin prices down with it and now it seems we're heading towards the 30K's . My final target would be ~33K before looking towards becoming bullish again. I will rethink that plan if BTC was able to reclaim 41.5K with strength. Short term bearish long term bullish
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
2
🔥 Bitcoin: Just A Dip? What Does 2016 Tell usPreface: I'm still bearish on BTC as per my most recent analyses. The ETF launch likely signaled a major top, potentially until the halving. My most likely scenario's are shown below. That being said, I think it's worthwhile to look at the market from different perspectives. In this analysis I'm going to compare the 2016-2017 bull-run with the 2023 bull-run. Back then, BTC experienced many 30%-40% drops over the course of 2 years. In the end, every dip was a dip to be bought which led to some very good returns. Thus far, the 2023 (and 2024) bull-run has had several dips around 20%, which all proved to be very good entry points. We had to admit to ourselves that it's possible that the drop after the ETF launch is a dip to be bought. Furthermore, the dips getting less deep than 8 years ago is a natural consequence of the market maturing and becoming less volatile. Is this just a dip, or are we facing a longer-term correction? Happy to hear your thoughts!
Long
by FieryTrading
18
BTC Market Update 22nd JanuaryIn the week subsequent to the introduction of the BTC Spot ETF, the cumulative trading volume across all 11 ETFs has reached $9.8 billion, with GBTC alone contributing $4.6 billion to this total. Since its transformation from a Trust into an ETF, GBTC has witnessed $1.17 billion in outflows, as shown in this link . This trend was anticipated, given GBTC's consistent trading at a discount since 2020, with the discount reaching as much as -48% at the beginning of 2023. The conversion to an ETF has been eagerly awaited by GBTC investors, presenting an opportunity to exit at par value. The current uncertainty revolves around the extent to which investors will withdraw from GBTC's $25.4 billion in assets under management. Following the ETF approval, BTC's price reached a peak of $49,100 but has since declined, stabilizing above the $40,000 support level. Trading volumes have decreased after the initial surge post-launch, and attention now shifts to the ongoing outflows from GBTC. This phase is likely a temporary market absorption, and it is anticipated that we may witness some choppy movements followed by positive momentum as we approach the Bitcoin halving in the next three months. #BitcoinETF #CryptoMarket #TradingTrends #GBTC #MarketOutlook #CryptoNews
by TheArabianWhale
2
BTC Rejected of Macro .618, Now What?So if we look at last cycles on Bitcoin and apply Fibonacci from bull cycle to bear market bottom, we have bear rallies to 0.618-0.66 area and then we reject and dump hard until halving and real bull cycle starts. We have seen the same, I had this plan since November. In my opinion most likely scenario now is slow bleed to the downside (not saying we won't have small bounces). February-March we go down and we have a huge buy opportunity for BTC and alts around 34-28k area. I'll start buying at 34 and will add to 28. I don't think we will close any daily candle below 28k. This is just my opinion, for more you can visit: cryptoaliens.io
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by cryptoalienss
3
🔥 Predicting Bitcoin's Price On The 2024 Halving: Dump Ahead?In this analysis I want to shed some light on an interesting relationship that I found between bear-market bottroms and the price of Bitcoin during the halving. This analysis is speculative and based on 2 previous occurences, so take it with a grain of salt. The relationship that I found is as follows: 2nd halving: price at halving = 300% off the bottom. 3rd halving: price at halving = 200% off the bottom. Percentages rounded to hundreds. Omitting first halving because market was not mature. So my assumption would be that the price on the 4th halving, the next one, would be 100% from the 15.500$ bottom, so around 31.000$ With BTC reversing after the ETF launch, a move towards 31.000$ is not even that far-fetched, since it functioned as a very important resistance of the majority of 2023 and therefore functions as a magnet. Do you think this is a reasonable analysis? Happy to hear your thoughts!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
10
🔥 Bitcoin: All Signs Pointing To Deep CorrectionOver the last few weeks I've been repeating the same message over and over: the ETF launch is NOT a moment to buy and will most likely lead to a short-term correction. The ETF, combined with long-term resistances & bearish divergence made it a statistically bad time to buy. After a ~16% correction from the top, we're now trading around the 41k area. In my view, we're soon going to test the real support of the 4 month bull-trend: the 40k support. The battle will be fierce, but I expect the bears to pull through. 40k will be lost and a bigger correction is due. My target for the next couple of weeks is the bottom yellow support of the channel.
Short
by FieryTrading
7
The ETF AftermathIt has been 1 year almost to the day since my last publication and what a 12 months it has been. I previously laid out the case for a pending future recession but not before we saw massive regular bullish divergence play out on the monthly time frame for Bitcoin. Since then we've seen a 187% move in BTC, a 25% move in the S&P 500 and every commentator, pundit and analyst confident that a recession has been avoided and a soft landing inevitable. I'm here now telling you that I believe it to be no coincidence that the previous fundamental legacy events of which bitcoin has experienced in its past, once in Dec 2017 and the other in April 2021 has resulted in massive price corrections of 83 and 53% respectively within days of the CME and IPO announcements. Albeit the likelihood of such massive corrections are lesser given where we are in the macro cycle I do believe a sizable correction will occur days following this announcement. What is of significant interest on the chart is the previous macro fibonacci extensions of the precious 2 cycles. That being a confluent correction at the 0.5 fib level and seeing a 40% and 72% correction there after. A 0.5 extension in this current cycle would suggest a monthly wick above $48500 followed by again a sizable correction. To pontificate as to the extent of this correction I pose the following possibilities. -A 30% drawdown to the 200 SMA, a support level which has served Bitcoin well historically -A 40% drawdown to the 6 and a half year support line of macro lows. -Or an unthinkable 70% correction somewhere around the previous bear market low, 2017 bull market high and the resistance held in July 2019 and Aug 2020. For this to take place we need to consider some very worst case scenarios and evaluate the current macro/geopolitical landscape. -Escalation of war in Russian Ukraine. -Escalation of war in Israel Palestine. -Military development of China's desire to remove Taiwan's international independence. -The largest inversion of the 10 year 2 year yield curve in 40 years. -The largest contraction of US M2 money supply since the great depression. -A continuation of what is already a 50% crash in China's real estate market. -A UK real estate crisis once affordability ceases as mortgages need rolling over after a 10,000% increase in interest rates. -A US real estate crisis as 11 monthly falsified unemployment data is realised -The energy and manufacturing crisis in europe compounded by the highest debt to GDP ratio in its history -A Hollywood presidential election between a criminal and a dementia patient. My point is the macro landscape is looking unpredictable and the TA has much confluence. This feels very much like it did in the beginning of 2020 just before the un-inversion of the yield curve and the then pending recession. It's almost like something globally needs to be orchestrated in order to create an excuse to lower rates and roll the debt over for another 4 years!! Who knows it might even be a cyber attack and CBDC implementation ;-) Either way Bitcoin will still be doing its thing. Keep yourself and those satoshi's safe.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MrGoose83
Other things to think aboutMorning folks, So, there some some jokes on the market already that BTC is becoming a stable coin... Indeed volatility has dropped drastically. But this could easily explained. If nobody is buying right now but all selling offers are swallowed by ETF whales - where coin should move? For instance, only BlackRock as bought in a single session this week more than 11K BTC. This is 10 times more than mined per day (900 BTC). Think about - how technical analysis could be applied for market right now? We continue to point that appearing of ETF is part of a big plan to take government control over the crypto markets. After some time free BTC float will be locked on ETF accounts. Exchanges that trade cash BTC (not ETF shares) will start loosing their business as turnover of cash BTC will drop miserably.... For now, we have H&S pattern that we've discussed previously and keep watching over it. If ETFs will keep supporting market from further drop, we should get upside bounce. Thus we consider 45-45.2K area for potential short position. For now we do not see many things to do. No good bullish signals either for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
GOLD|Important areas of supply and demandHello friends, I hope you are well. We have the gold chart in the one-hour time frame. Yesterday we said that we will wait if the support zone is broken down, the next target is the zone (2005-2008). Now in this area, with the formation of candlestick patterns, it has moved upwards. The areas that are important for us are the bottom of the previous broken area (2013) and the next area of the origin of the downward aggressive movement, i.e. the price range (2024-2028) for sell positions. If we lose the support area (2008-2005), our next target is the support area (1990-1995). ​
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
3
🔥 How The Gold ETF Can Predict Bitcoin's Performance After ETFIn many of my recent BTC analyses I've been talking about my view on the ETF. My prediction was that the ETF would be a sell-the-news event and mark a local top. Thus far, my view has been correct. In this analysis I want to take a look at the Gold ETF and its effect on the short- and long-term price movement of the underlying asset Gold. My short-term view on both ETF launches is as follows: - Whales (big banks and the like) buy the rumour. Likely, they have more knowledge about the ETF launching than the retail investors. - ETF launches, whales create hype around the ETF to lure retail in. - Whales sell their assets to retail, which drives the prices down. As per Bitcoin, the correction has just started in my view. We can go much lower from this point. However, this ETF is great news in the long-term. As seen on the bottom chart, Gold went up for almost 7 years after the ETF launch. I doubt that BTC will go up for 7 years, but the statistics don't lie. An ETF is a great way to lure more traders to the market. Think about it, how many more people will buy crypto during bull-markets when it's as accessible as a stock? This ETF could very well put increasing bullish pressure on Bitcoin's price, potentially bringing the next-bull market top to unforeseen highs. A man can hope. Share your thoughts about the short- and long-term price action of BTC after the ETF.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FieryTrading
17
BITCOIN weekly roadmapGood time friends, I hope you are great. According to last week's analysis, Bitcoin reached the range of $48,000 twice and could not go beyond this range.And from this area, it started its falling movement, this fall could be predicted both technically and the news that has come for Bitcoin during the last week. Bitcoin is forming MTR in the daily time, it has broken the upward channel that we had downwards, the last bottom that I marked with a dashed line on the chart, below this range we also had a close candle. In general, I see Bitcoin as bearish, this week I could not find a safe area for selling positions so that we can take swing selling positions. But we can have buying positions in the range of (40000-41000) and (39400-39800) by getting appropriate approvals, if there is an opportunity for selling positions, I will inform you in the next analysis.
Short
by Golden_Star1994
1