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Staying Cautious on Bitcoin Until After The ETF DecisionsI don't know about you, but with all of the hype for the Bitcoin ETF going on, I am staying pretty cautious in the markets right now. Even though there are some big movements going in other altcoins, most eyes are watching good ole BTC. Nobody truly knows what is going to happen, there is a ton of speculation going on and the price action we are seeing is people trying to buy coins before the hedge funds go nuts with their money. Many say it will be a 'sell the news' kind of event. This may be the case. In 2017, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust opened up futures trading on the CME, and that is what started the collapse of that market cycle. So who really knows. In times of crazy news cycles like this, I pay more and more attention to the charts for my direction. Right now I am seeing Bitcoin hitting a very solid line of resistance. It needs to break through the 48K level and find it as support for me to be more bullish. If we get rejected on the news, we could see a big dip down to the high 30's or low 40's which is where, if the ETFs pass, the hedge funds will be looking to scoop up. So don't be surprised to see some market manipulation going on. So we may see some fireworks for sure in the next couple of days, but whether they are red or green fireworks has yet to be seen. I am just staying cautious and not going to make impulsive decisions either way. What are your thoughts on the Bitcoin ETFs and where do you think the price will go?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by thelogicaldude
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) (1W)Below the technical analysis of BINANCE:BTCUSDT Timeframe: 1 week The main supports and resistances are indicated in the idea. A trendline starts from the green support: if this were to be invalidated by touching 1500-1600, a negative scenario would open up in the short term for ethereum. The narratives on spot ETFs could help bitcoin rise towards the ath (and more) over the green area on the top. This bullish cycle could be the last in terms of % returns for bitcoin: the price at the end of the year, thanks to etfs, could easily be 140-160k. Today marketcap: 910B
Long
by mcpnz
1
Ethereum (ETHUSDT) (1W)Below the technical analysis of BINANCE:ETHUSDT Timeframe: 1 week The main supports and resistances are indicated in the idea: the purple one is the most important. A trendline starts from the green support: if this were to be invalidated by touching 1500-1600, a negative scenario would open up in the short term for ethereum. The narratives on spot ETFs on eth that will exist between now and May could help ethereum rise towards the $3000 threshold, where the blue resistance starts. In a hypothetical bullish cycle (probably just starting) ethereum could easily break the light green zone at the top and could see new highs as early as next year. Today marketcap: 270B
Long
by mcpnz
Ten Reasons BTC Sould Hit $155k - $210k This Market Cycle But...Here's my revised "Potential Path To $150k+" chart, adding in 3 new factors that further point to the higher Fibonacci targets on this chart and potentially hitting $220k Bitcoin. As the 3.618 accurately predicted the exact market cycle top in 2021 (drawn from the 2018 Hi / Low cycle)... The same scenario could play out for the 2024 bull cycle, with each of these TEN factors potentially 'igniting' the other smoldering 'fires' into a giant bullish blaze. Kind of like a good ol California forest fire. When the smaller fires meet, the blaze begins. The following TEN factors show 3 potential levels for Bitcoin upside in 2024, which I've labeled as 3 scenarios described in more detail below (Likely, Probably and Possible). 1. BlackRock & Fidelity ETF's Approval - (Slated for this week by January 10th - 95% chance)). 2. QE Money Printing To Pay Down US Debt - (The US rising debt levels require easing soon). 3. Bank Failures, Bank Runs & Transfer Into BTC - (More bank failures are likely. BTFP ending). 4. Hyperinflation & De-Dollarization (BRICS) - (We haven't seen effects yet, but still brewing). 5. Corporate Accumulation - MSTR / Apple /Tesla - (MSTR raising 750M Common Stock for BTC). 6. Country Accumulation (New Reserve Currency) - (More will follow El Salvador this cycle). 7. Post-Halving Less Bitcoin Miner Selling ($12B) - (Miners will have less to sell > 2024 halving). 8. Less Available BTC On Exchanges - (More retail wallets will creasing demand / supply shock). 9. Increasing Political Support For Bitcoin - (Politicians joining the narrative will push in favor). 10. Bursting of the Sovereign Debt Bubble - ($35T of COVID money globally straining global economies). Any ONE of these and likely the ETF approvals could and will be the needed 'spark' that ignites this Bitcoin forest fire, which will never be put out and only grow. I've broken these down into 3 scenarios... Likely Target ($100k) - Bitcoin was widely 'expected' to hit $100k in the last cycle, and the math supports the reasons why. With $20T+ in investable assets in Gold + Silver + US Real Estate in 2023, just 10% of this moved over to Bitcoin gives BTC a $2T market cap alone. It's also the 1.618 Fib target for the next cycle as shown. Probable Target ($155k) - Looking at the bars pattern from the Oct 19th 2020 breakout, we can see a rapid rise in Bitcoin followed, driving price up to the April 2021 initial high for BTC. This also coincides with the 2.618 Fibonacci target on the charts. Possible Target ($210k) - Again looking at the last cycle drop starting in Dec 2017, to the low in Dec 2018, the 3.618 Fib target was exactly where the peak around 64K in April 2021. Many believe this to be true 'high' although later we had a Wyckoff 'Thrust' higher to $69k. In the near term, the bars patterns also shows confluence for a pause right at the Fib Golden Pocket between 48K and $50k. Since round numbers act as market magnets, I feel $50k is the next push higher before a meaningful profit taking pullback. Also notable is the 21 week MA which has been an excellent support / resistance barometer over the years, and price has just firmly broken above that in recent weeks. So this is looking very bullish to me here, and I'm expecting we go higher... Time will tell if one or more of these scenarios come to pass! But I've also added 3 potential negative scenarios (and may add a 4th) which may pour water on this fire from the start, and are unknowns worth noting. 1. It's the First Ever Macro Global Recession for Bitcoin (Could a US recession drag this down?) 2. Still Small Possibility of ETF Delay or Not Approved Yet (This would cause a massive sell-off) 3. Spot ETF's May Mark a Market Top Like in Previous Cycles (No way to know the ETF effect). And here's a notiable #4 not yet on the chart... 4. Issues With BTFP Expiration Causing Bank Failures (Forcing the Fed to start dropping rates). When the Fed actually starts Dropping Rates, markets usually go down initially... See the excellent article Arthur Hays recently put out detailing this scenario. What do you think will happen this week and into the Halving??
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BrettFogle
4
The 'SELL THE NEWS' trade that got me the 'FXProfessor' nickname🎉📈 "Bitcoin ETF Buzz: To Sell or Not to Sell?" 🤔💰 Hi everyone! 🌟 Today is a special episode, a special post, and a special idea. First of all, Happy New Year 🎊 to all of you! We have Bitcoin at 45K, nearing 46K 🚀, prompting us to consider our options. Is it time to sell the news 🤷‍♂️💼 with the Bitcoin ETF drawing closer? The market is rife with FUD 😨, and Jim Cramer's opinions can't be ignored. He suggests that the ETF approval might be an opportunity to sell, but history has often shown his predictions to be off-mark 🙈. Let's delve into history for guidance 🧐📚. Back in December 2017, during the CME listing of Bitcoin futures, I made a significant sell decision. At that time, I wasn't on Tradingview but shared my thoughts on Facebook, predicting a manipulation in Bitcoin's price post-news 📉🗞️. Indeed, the 2017 all-time highs weren’t revisited for three years, validating my decision 🎯. Check it: Now, let's analyze the current scenario 🔍📈. With Cramer hinting at a potential sell opportunity following the ETF approval , it's crucial to scrutinize the charts 📊. I'm leaning towards a 50% chance that the market is poised for an upswing with the ETF's approval ✅📈. However, it’s essential to understand Bitcoin’s seasonality and cycles ⏳🔄. We're currently heading towards a halving year, with the next all-time high anticipated around the end of 2025 📅🚀. This differentiates the current situation from 2017. My focus is on a key resistance level at $47,071 💹🔑, which will be instrumental in my decision to sell or hold. If this level is breached, we might witness a significant breakout 💥💸. However, should there be a surprise ETF rejection, a fallback to lower support levels is possible 😱📉. To conclude, while my initial inclination was to sell the news, the current analysis suggests that might not be the most prudent course 🤔💭. Remember, each move in the crypto market requires careful analysis and an understanding of historical trends 🔬📉📈. Stay tuned for more insights and updates! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙👨‍🏫💼 my special 'simple secret chart':
Long
by FX_Professor
15
$BTC holding while weakening, what? LOLGOOD MORNING Don't see an increase in CRYPTOCAP:BTC shorts. With #ETF news perhaps traders do not want to be short. Don't see a #BTC a breakdown, JUST weakening of the RSI during this current move. BUT #Bitcoin keeps bouncing off the trendline, yellow arrow. We also see bouncing off the 20 Exponential Moving Avg, cyan, & the red = TREND strength. As posted few days ago, the top part of the range keeps getting poked. The more poking the weaker resistance gets!
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
08/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $45912.61 Last weeks low: $43426.20 Midpoint: $40939.80 It's ETF decision week! ARK invests application for a BTC ETF has a deadline of January 10th (Wednesday) to either approve or deny registration. At the end of last week we started to see much of the market prepare for this news event as altcoin liquidity moved into BTC or cash ready to be deployed on the result of the decision. We know this as altcoins bled against bitcoin quite dramatically, some alts falling as much as 30% from their recent local highs. For this weeks outlook all eyes are on the SEC for their decision. The general sentiment is there will be a large single candle on approval towards 50K, with a sell off after. History has shown a 30% drop in a bull market is a healthy correction which would see us revisit the mid 30K area before the build up to the halving. It is worth noting that just because that seems to be the most common theory it doesn't always work out that way and especially if on the off chance the ETF is denied, panic will descend on the market aggressively so be careful. Volatility is definitely on the cards this week that is for certain.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
BTCUSDT - ETF will be Rejected! Hello Everyone! This is an overview of Bitcoin. In my opinion Bitcoin's ETC will be rejected and we'll see a bearish move in bitcoin. This is the details: 10th January 2024 = Start a sharp bearish move to ~$38500 Then go to ~$48500 until 4th February 2024 The main bearish movement will start here and we have our main bottom on 5th April 2024 I'll update the chart there! Bitcoin go down alone! of course Alt coins will go down too but the % of bitcoin will be more! (See my BTC.d analyze for more info)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sajjad_vtb
16
ETH Ethereum Price Prediction after the BTC ETF approvalThe price of Ethereum (ETH) will be affected by the approval of the Bitcoin ETF this week. Some of the biggest asset managers on the entire planet are going to release a BTC ETF: Blackrock $9.3 Trillion Fidelity $4.5 Trillion Franklin Templeton $1.53 trillion Invesco $1.5 Trillion. BlackRock expects Bitcoin ETF approval on Wednesday, in-line with Bloomberg's January 10 deadline. I expect the approval to a buy the rumor, sell the news event. Employing the strategy of "buy the rumor, sell the news," traders strategically capitalize on market movements by entering positions based on speculative information. This approach involves opening positions on rumors and closing them when the anticipated news is officially announced, typically resulting in a profit. A retracement in the price of Ethereum, after the news, probably to $1900, would be a buying opportunity for a year-end rally, in my opinion.
by TopgOptions
BTC Market Update 7th January As BTC gears up for a significant shift, historical trends suggest a liquidity migration from altcoins to BTC. Yesterday's data and a thorough BTC scenario analysis lean towards a 'buy the news' stance, supported by bullish indicators in recent days: 📉 Open Interest (OI) Wipeout. 💥 Liquidation clusters favoring shorts, driving momentum. 💰 Tether printing resumes (significantly bullish). 📊 Bitfinex and Coinbase leading the tape, indicating bullish trends. Flow indicators amplify the positive outlook: 📈 BITO's exposure hits an ATH of 41,000 BTC, with futures-based ETFs seeing a 310% increase in Volatility Share since October. 📊 CME's annualized basis remains above 10%, potentially decreasing post-ETF approvals due to BITO holders shifting exposure and possible redemptions. Anticipating upcoming news, a surge in BTC may break through short clusters, pushing the price to 48k, possibly extending to 50k. However, profit-taking and the need for new narratives could trigger a retraction until the halving. Post-approval, analysts estimate a one-week timeline for the ETF launch. Trade Ideas for the Next Move: 📈 Spot ETH ETF Trade: Long ETH/BTC (following the BTC playbook). 🔄 If BTC dominance rises, consider rotating into altcoins during BTC consolidation. Stay tuned for updates as the crypto landscape unfolds! 🚀💹 #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #ETF #TradingStrategies #CryptoMarkets
by TheArabianWhale
🔥 Bitcoin's ETF Might Cause A Major CRASH: Be Warned! 🚨In this analysis I'm going to take a more bearish (potentially very unpopular) stance on Bitcoin's ETF launch. More and more news seems to be seeping in about this highly anticipated spot ETF, which makes me believe that a launch is imminent. Allegedly, there's a 90% chance according to Bloomberg that the spot ETF will be approved by January 10th, early next week. Just search your favorite crypto twitter person, youtuber or website and you can check for yourself. Historically, big crypto news that the whole market is watching (see red lines) does not have an immediate bullish effect on the markets. Actually, big crypto news has a tendency to signal long-term tops like in December 2017 and October 2021. Buy the rumor, sell the news. I'm strongly anticipating a big dump on Bitcoin's ETF launch news. Gamblers might be piling in on the news, taking BTC up to 48k or so (as mentioned in all my BTC analyses), but then the whales will dump on them and sell their positions that they've been building over the past year. This dump will likely signal the top for the foreseeable future. We've got the halving in a couple of months, so the top will only be temporary. This dump might be your last chance to buy alts for cheap before the real bull-market starts. No one knows how deep the dump will be. I'm looking at the yellow support for a target, but we could potentially go back to the 25k area. Summary ETF will potentially be sell the news event. Dump for few months. Buy cheap alts. Enjoy bull-market at the end of the year.
Short
by FieryTrading
53
BTC SHORT/CRAB, LET GO.BTC looks to be in a short term distribution phase, with a likely top already in ~47k on CME. Expect moderate volatility this quarter, where I expect constant violent 10% swings in either direction between 46k and 41k until the ETF approval. Afterward, expect a drop to ~38.5k by the end of January. Note, January EOM has the highest likelihood of dropping the furthest beyond the "Q1 High probability range noted on the chart" towards 34.5k. Breaking out the Q1 Range will likely result in continued momentum to follow until the next line of support/resistance, noted at 50k or 34.5k. The last line of defense will be ~31.6k in the event of a full liquidation cascade as it supports the previous sideways structure we had between 32k and 25k since March last year and acts as the 0.5 fib from the ATH to this cycle low. If we drop further under 30k, than you must accept the increased probability of 46k being a bull trap and being the largest rug pull to occur and we head toward revisiting 20k, 15, and even 10k. RWI (Random Walk Index) and LS (Liquidation Screener) are the indicators used. RWI is printing bearish divergences along with starting to crossover toward bearish trend. LS probably has shown the top as it has hit the red bearish territory and recently dropped out of it and heading over the median line currently at 33.7k (but is rising and i could see it bottom out toward the lower side of Q1 probability range by EOM JAN or even EOQ) Overall, I believe the ETF may be a sell-the-news event that will in the grand scheme of things crab between 46k and 41k, until the end of Q1, but with a short visit to 38.5k. Breaking out the expected range of 46k-38.5k, begets continued momo in the same direction. Take note this is likely due to lowered overall volatility of BTC maturing as a whole. But alts may push forward after the expected flush. Let go. Relax. Q1 Ranges: High probability 46k-38k Moderate probability 52k-30k Max probability 54k-18k Trades: Short @ 44k TP 41k, 39k, (may carry it down to 30k depending on PA under 39k) SL 47k Short @ 50k ( if expected range breaks out) TP 40k, 35k, 32k SL 54k Long @ 39k TP 44k, 50k SL 37.5k Long @ 35k & 32k TP 40k, 50k SL 29k
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands
ETH forming bearish engulfing on weekly and more...Battle happening with CRYPTOCAP:ETH at the moment. #ETH pumps but it cannot hold them. CRYPTOCAP:ETH is really struggling @ major resistance. Recently it did break the uptrend and bounced back above. As of now it's under it again and in the middle of an intraday downtrend. #ETH RSI & $ FLOW peaked in mid November & have formed negative divergence since then this means it is weakening. Volume is also lessening with some selling showing up. CHART SHOWN IS WEEKLY Weekly #Ethereum forms a bearish engulfing but it lacks volume Arrows show previous instances.
CME:ETH1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
NDX Nasdaq100 Fell 8.60% After the Last U.S. Credit Downgradeitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating on Tuesday, moving it from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing concerns about "a steady deterioration in standards of governance." This downgrade happened following last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to reach a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, raising the risk of the nation's first default. In the past, a similar credit downgrade had a significant impact on the NDX, which fell 8.60% in just two weeks. Back in August 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's, one of the major credit rating firms, downgraded U.S. debt after another major debt ceiling battle. Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that while the news of Standard & Poor's being the first to downgrade 12 years ago was substantial, investors had already adjusted their perceptions of the world's most important bond market, recognizing that it was no longer a pure AAA. Nonetheless, Fitch's recent decision to downgrade is still significant. In the current scenario, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022. As for the price target for this year, it remains at $16650, as shown in the chart below: Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by TopgOptions