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BTC Bitcoin ETF "buy the rumor, sell the news"BTC Bitcoin Price fell today amid speculation of ETF rejection. Employing the strategy of "buy the rumor, sell the news," traders strategically capitalize on market movements by entering positions based on speculative information. This approach involves opening positions on rumors and closing them when the anticipated news is officially announced, typically resulting in a profit. However, it's crucial to note that this strategy is often driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO). The surge in buying activity prior to the news can lead to heightened selling pressure from market participants once the news is confirmed. Consequently, the price of the asset is susceptible to a decline as traders liquidate their positions, emphasizing the speculative nature of such market dynamics. My price target for BTC is about FWB:36K in this situation.
Short
by TopgOptions
1
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Price Prediction for 2024This was my price prediction for QQQ in 2023. I was bullish, but not enough: Considerations about 2024: In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC chose to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at mitigating heightened inflation. The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target. Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the QQQ to approximately $370. Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior. Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the QQQ will conclude the year on a bullish note. This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the QQQ boasting a year-end price target of $460. The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the QQQ to new heights by the close of 2024.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TopgOptions
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Prediction for 2024This was my article about the SPY S&P 500 ETF price target for 2023:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/l6U1M9dJ-SPY-S-P-500-ETF-2023-Forecast-CPI-Report-Prediction/ I was bullish, but not enough! In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC opted to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at curbing elevated inflation. The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target. Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the SPY to approximately $430. Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior. Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the SPY will conclude the year on a bullish note. This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the SPY boasting a year-end price target of $540. The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the SPY to new heights by the close of 2024.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
Shocked @ $BTC and #crypto hit today?Good Morning!!!!!!! In reference to the rout #crypto is taking, everyone's playing Monday morning quarterback. The post quoted, pls see more info on our profile page, wasn't the 1st post with warning!!! We had mentioned the breakout had a lot of selling with little buying to support holding the move. CRYPTOCAP:BTC gave up a large chunk of the gains. We also spoke on #BTC $ flow lessening & the weakening RSI. The CRYPTOCAP:BTC RSI looks to cross sub 50, it must hold 40ish area. #BTC $ Flow hasn't looked good at all, buy on the rumor and sell news. Could be what's happening. #Bitcoin forming a BEARISH ENGULFING. Recall NASDAQ:NDX did this and was walloped for a bit before recuperating. KEEP and EYE ON VOLUME TODAY! Weekly, Bitcoin has formed an outside week, more on this later. AMEX:BITO
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin Turns Down For Deeper Correction. Strong Support At 40k.Stocks are coming down at the start of January as some portfolio adjustments and profit-taking occurs at the start of a new year to avoid 2023 tax year. We can also see some dollar rally, but normally these flows at the start of the year are temporary and can be reversed later this month when flows will normalize. We also have a FED minutes today, but US PMI and NFP much more important this week I think. Looking at bitcoin, its coming sharply down on speculation that SEC will reject ETF. Some nice support is at 40k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
02/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43821.44 Last weeks low: $42563.55 Midpoint: $41305.65 HAPPY NEW YEAR TRADERS! A new year has arrived and with it another year of price action or BITCOIN. This year the general sentiment is as strong as it has ever been with ETF's & THE HALVING events in the first half of the year alone. Last weeks price action showed a consolidation just under the local high allowing some of the lagging altcoins to run and others to cool off for the next move in the market. The rumour is ETF decision will be announced this week, there is talk of whether the event is a sell the news event or if it's bullish. I would say I'm sceptical and I have said previously I think it would be a sell the news, the majority of big money players would have made their money on the way up to the decision, not gamble on the result. BTC price tripled in 2022 and those kinds of returns for big investors are great, why risk the volatility after the decision. However... Having said that I would also be a fool to disregard the sheer power of FOMO, a big headline in the news about BlackRock's ETF approval would send retail investors back into the market to make a "quick buck" which brings a buying pressure, volatility and also a risk of a blow-off top. A case for the bulls would be BlackRock would not want to let their brand new ETF look bad, it would need to be an attractive investment and so they would probably do their best to steady and volatility to be able to attract customers and extract fees from them. I do also see BTC being at new highs by the end of the year, so depending on the timeframe of your investment you may be able to ride out the volatility of the ETF's, however you may get a better entry by being agile.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
BTC Daily chart 24th December 2023Seasons greetings to all! Warmest wishes for you and your family during the holiday season. In my last idea we saw that COINBASE:BTCUSD was able to break the double bottom neckline at 43,5K but was unable to create any significant momentum to continue the rally towards 45K. Since the holiday season has started, a period with lower volatility, i am not expecting BTC to go much higher till we get some more news about the BTC spot ETF. If the ETF is approved we will probably see a significant rally which will take BTC to at least 50K. If BTC will be able to break 50K and go higher, will depend on how much the ETF approval was already priced in. If people already bought the news then the ETF rally could be more modest than expected (e.g. 50K high instead of new ATH). If the ETF is rejected, then we will probably see a major price correction, dropping BTC under 40K support line with a possible bottom as low as 32K (the breaking of this resistance line was sort of the start of the current bullrun, so a retest is likely in a major correction). As you might have read, the SEC recently had a meeting with all the ETF applicants. I am guessing that the applicant probably received a heads-up of the SEC's oncoming decision. If the SEC has already decided that it will reject the current applications, we will see signs of a sell-off from now till 10th of January (when the SEC will formaly announce the rejection). So if BTC starts retracing, this could be a sign that the ETF applicants are selling off a part of their BTC ahead of the expected sell-off. Other than that i am not expecting any mayor moves during the oncoming week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Bullissimo
🔥 Bitcoin Break Out! 2024 Starts Off AMAZING 🚀Over the last couple of weeks I've been posting a lot of analyses on Bitcoin's bull-flag pattern. My expectation was always that the price would break out through the top resistance, with a target of 48k. As of this morning, BTC has rallied hard on bullish ETF news. The break out is strong with a lot of volume, so 48,000$ seems imminent at this point. Why 48k you ask? Well, it's the strongest resistance area before the all-time high. If the bears will fail to defend 48k, chances are were going straight to new all-time highs. For now I'm bullish untill 48k, neutral at 48k, and bullish again if we manage to break through 48k. To all patient bulls: congratulations. The trend is your friend. But be wary, the bears might be lurking at 48k.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
15
BTC held the 44kish call for 2023, 48-50k next before pauseGood Evening/Morning! The call for CRYPTOCAP:BTC topping around the 44k range for 2023 was GOOD! 1st trading day and #bitcoin rips higher! How's that for coincidence, huh? The call for #BTC being in a temp pause & in a CONTINUATION pattern was GOOD! IMO, the next level that #Bitcoin is most likely to test is the 48k with a good possibility of hitting low 50k area. Let's continue....... The RSI is still trending lower and $ Flow is not that great either. Things can change though... Why 48-50k? Arrows show the areas of resistance. Even after breaking above this staunch resistance area, 50kish, Bitcoin didn't trade very long above it. More on what we think later.... Still time... For more info visit our profile page...
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Market Algo or pain tradesI was reading another trading book today and much like watching the dumb money movie the other day, it prompted me to write another post. So, you may have heard the expression "the market is an Algorithm" whilst this is somewhat true, it's actually more a sequence, Ralph Elliott, Richard Wyckoff and Edward Jones knew this. In simple terms, the larger operators or what's known as sophisticated money - chase liquidity pools that are often areas Dumb Money have taken entries or placed stops. Now if it was as simple as this, you could simply write an indicator or be on the winning side 100% of the time. Unfortunately, there's a lot more to it! When I say the smart kids are taking the dinner money of the dumb kids, you need to appreciate the fact that winning whilst playing against retail traders is like putting the Patriots against your local under 12's side. Or like having the New Zealand All Blacks play against an old people's home in Pakistan. (I am not sure if Pakistan even have a 1st team in rugby). To gain some understanding, you need to appreciate there's such a thing as "pain trading". A "pain trade" refers to a situation in financial markets where a significant number of investors or traders find themselves on the wrong side of the market, leading to losses or discomfort. In other words, it describes a scenario in which the market moves in a way that causes the most amount of pain or financial losses to the largest number of participants. For example, if a majority of traders are positioned for a market to go up, a pain trade would be a sharp and unexpected decline in prices, catching those traders off guard and causing them losses. The term reflects the idea that markets often move in ways that inflict the most damage on the greatest number of participants. Understanding pain trades is important for investors and traders, as it highlights the potential risks of crowded trades and the importance of risk management strategies to mitigate unexpected market movements. Investors and traders often use various indicators, market sentiment analysis, and risk management techniques to try to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a pain trade. (Thanks ChatGPT for the summary). ====================================================== So take a company like Carvana for example... This type of move happens over and over again - creating cycles (But not always the same). In this image above you can see it's likely to have swept long stop losses and then rallied hard. You probably know about the Gamestop Saga. I wrote a post on that film recently. I talked about being on the wrong side - I can't get over how someone could be up $500,000 and still go broke? But it's all in the mindset. Liquidity is the name of the game. How do these things fit together? Well, Bitcoin is a prime example - retail mindset is "HODL, Buy the Dip, Diamond hands & Lambo" - whilst as a professional trader, it's enjoying your profits and buying/selling at the expense of the dumb money. These moves are shown as the last post, buy momentum. Here is the summary image from that post. Since we had a move up - retail seem to think it's up only, they seem to put all the eggs in the hope Blackrock and a halving will make them rich... I have read articles like this recently. After watching the Dumb Money film - you know where following the crowd goes. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Why is this an important lesson? It's all to do with pain, where is the maximum pain? Retail sentiment would suggest pain comes in the form of little movement, grinding prices in up moves and fast aggressive drops. Some context from Blackrock themselves: What is Blackrocks Biggest ETF? So again, let's add a little logic. Where is liquidity sitting? If and it's a big if - Blackrock get an ETF approved and it's half the size of their biggest ETF to date, let's then assume Retail flood in and match it dollar for dollar. That market cap would still put us roughly at the current ATH, given coins in circulation. This again just amplifies, why we are simply - NOT READY, YET!!! The move I didn't want in 2022, looks to be the biggest liquidity grab we are likely to see in the Bitcoin chart. We are very, very likely still in an A-B move up for the slow pain of coming back to build sustainable momentum. Have a Happy New Year all! Stay safe and see you in 2024! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
17
BTC Market Update 12/30/2023BINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin has recently seen a deceleration in the mid-$40,000 range, encountering resistance levels between $43,000 and $44,000 on both a weekly and daily basis. From a technical standpoint, surpassing this resistance zone is crucial for supporting a bullish continuation. Currently, the market is facing challenges in overcoming these levels. To approach this situation cautiously, a positive sign of momentum would be a weekly close above $44,100. Alternatively, a more assertive stance requires a daily close above $43,900, indicating strength in the short-term trend. Traders focusing on technical pullbacks to support levels should consider $37,000 as the earliest significant pullback level on the daily chart. However, this may be deemed an aggressive entry point. Beyond technical analysis, a pivotal factor is the imminent decision on the spot ETF, expected in early January. This event has the potential to significantly influence market dynamics, and we anticipate it to be a "sell-the-news" occurrence that bottoms shortly before a surge towards the halving. Prudent trading strategies involve either maintaining a long position from a lower entry point while anticipating volatility around the ETF announcement or adopting a wait-and-see approach until the aftermath of the ETF decision becomes clear.
by TheArabianWhale
1
Now is the Perfect Time to Invest in BitcoinSeizing the Opportunity: Why Now is the Perfect Time to Invest in Bitcoin In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, an exciting development is on the horizon that could reshape the landscape of Bitcoin investments. With the spot Bitcoin ETF amendment deadline for S-1 filing just days away, the anticipation of regulatory approval is sparking a significant surge in Bitcoin prices. As the market braces for a potential breakthrough, seasoned investors and industry experts alike are urging buyers to seize this golden opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. The ETF Deadline Drama The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has set December 29 as the deadline for spot Bitcoin ETF applicants to submit the final amendments to their S-1 filings. Those who fail to meet this deadline risk missing out on the first wave of potential approvals. Notably, major players like BlackRock, Grayscale Investments, and Fidelity Investments are among the frontrunners in this race, having recently resubmitted revised filings in preparation for a possible green light. BlackRock's Bold Move BlackRock, the world's leading asset management firm, has made a significant move by proposing a $10 million seed funding injection for its spot Bitcoin ETF, scheduled for launch on January 3. This strategic move underscores BlackRock's confidence in the imminent approval and signals a strong commitment to the success of their Bitcoin ETF. Investors looking for a game-changing opportunity should take note of this bold initiative. Market Leaders Taking the Plunge The recent filing amendments by Grayscale Investments and ARK Invest 21Shares further highlight the industry's eagerness for regulatory approval. Despite chairman Barry Silbert's departure from Grayscale's Board of Directors, the company continues to pursue its Bitcoin ETF dreams. ARK Invest 21Shares, having submitted its fifth amendment, reflects a steadfast determination to navigate the regulatory landscape. These market leaders are paving the way for a new era in cryptocurrency investments. Experts Optimistic Amidst Bitcoin Price Surge As the Bitcoin price skyrockets to nearly $43,000, experts are overwhelmingly optimistic about the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Renowned investor and advisor Mike Alfred puts the odds of approval at a staggering 98.7%, considering recent trends. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas echoes this sentiment, suggesting that the upcoming amendment deadline may not be the last. With such positive indicators, now is the time for investors to position themselves for potential gains. The Countdown to January 10, 2024 Industry insiders, including Sam Enzer, partner at law firm Cahill Gordon & Reinel, anticipate the SEC giving the green light to a slew of spot Bitcoin ETF applications before January 10, 2024. This timeline adds urgency to the investment opportunity, as the market could witness a surge in demand following regulatory approvals. In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, opportunities like the current Bitcoin surge and the impending ETF approvals are rare. As the market continues to show bullish signs, investors are urged to act now and position themselves strategically to capitalize on the potential gains. With industry giants like BlackRock leading the charge, the time is ripe for buyers to enter the Bitcoin market and ride the wave of optimism towards a new era of cryptocurrency investments. Don't miss out on this historic moment – the future of Bitcoin awaits, and the time to invest is now.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Bitcoin - BTCUSDT - In Wedge PatternGreetings, BTC has been struggling to breakout and then stay above $44K. With time since the previous move above $38K resistance, the top trendline has been descending. Along with that, the recent bounces have created an ascending bottom trendline. If we extend this bottom trendline back, it aligns well with the previous resistance very well which makes it a strong support. These two lines are converging on Jan 10, 2024 which is the deadline for SEC's decision on Bitcoin ETF's - too much of a coincidence? Anyway this convergence is creating a wedge pattern which typically gives 50/50 chance to both up and down move. However as mentioned, the bottom trendline is a strong support and has a steeper angle so we would give a slight edge to bulls here. With SEC's decision coming up in a few days, we expect high volatility in the markets. All investors should manage their risk. From our end, we will provide our analysis as frequently as we can. Please SUBSCRIBE to stay up to date! Note: This is not financial advise and shall only be used for educational and/or entertainment purpose. Please do your own research before investing. Crypto Markets are highly volatile and you are responsible for the risk of losing your entire investment.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by figuring_out_the_dream
Bitcoin: ETF = sell the news event + pre-halving drop alignThe closer we get to a spot bitcoin ETF approval (~2nd to 10th of January 2024) the more I think it will play out as a crypto typical "sell the news" event. I kind of think it's priced in already and the latest rally was 90% driven by this narrative. Please don't get me wrong, I'm sure BTC-ETFs will have a positive impact on price for all the obvious reasons, but not immediately on approval but ~2 months later when the ETFs will actually be available. And now imagine you are one of the Blackrock guys who want to sell their brand new btc ETF to large customers, wouldn't it be beautiful, if you could offer them BTC at a great price? What I'm preparing for is this: Sell the news event in early January 2024 --> price down to the green buying area (30k - 25k) and very maybe (though unlikely) even wicks down below closer to 20k. Sideways into the halving ~18th of April 2024. Next bull run 24/25 from there. (Please note: the whole idea of a "sell the news" event around the ETF approval obviously only makes sense as long as BTC stays at least above 40k. If it sells off significantly (35-30k) before it might as well play out exactly the other way round and we'll see some ETF approval rally in January.)
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by play_with_the_whales
BTC Stalls at $44K: Eyeing a Dip to $39K-$35KBitcoin's recent attempts to breach the $44K mark seem to be losing steam, hinting at a possible downturn. The inability to break this key resistance level could signal a shift in market sentiment, leading to a retracement. Key levels to monitor: Immediate Resistance: $44K Potential Downward Targets: 39K - $35K If BTC fails to sustain above $43K, we might witness a move towards the 39K -$35K zone. This range could act as a crucial support area, offering opportunities for accumulation or re-entry for those on the sidelines. Traders should watch for: Volume changes as BTC approaches these levels. Market sentiment indicators that might suggest a shift. Key technical patterns that could confirm the downward trajectory. While the broader market context remains bullish with the upcoming ETF decision, short-term movements could be dominated by these technical barriers. A cautious approach is advised, with a keen eye on how BTC interacts with these pivotal price points.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by AI-signals
BTC Outlook: ETF Approval vs. Chart Patterns – A Drop Before theBTC is at a critical juncture as we anticipate the ETF approval next month. Despite this potentially bullish event, the charts paint a cautious picture. We haven't established a higher low in the last couple of months yet, signaling uncertainty. There's a possibility we might not break the $50K barrier soon. Instead, we could see a retracement to the FWB:39K - $32K range. This scenario could offer a valuable opportunity to accumulate more BTC at lower prices. Keep an eye on key support levels and watch for any shifts in market sentiment as the ETF decision approaches. This period could be crucial for setting the tone for BTC's trajectory in the coming months.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by AI-signals
2
Long on BitcoinLong on Bitcoin. Aside from the world's growing acceptance corporately, the techs on the weekly chart look fairly bullish. We'll have some pullbacks and consolidations of course (duh..), but across the horizon and according to structure, we're still progressively bullish. As we've done some rebalancing inside that bear run, we should expect to see some old highs revisited. The liquidity up there could provide the fuel for new all-time highs. Fundamentally, we should expect to see bullish movement due to the ETF situation and the next upcoming halving. Expecting to see a touch near $53k, before a possible pullback to $28k- FWB:31K , which is a zone of a weekly structural high. There's still some imbalance us there, but if bitcoin reaches back to $20k, I'd change my bias.
Long
by TheFinalBoss
1
maybe we must be attend to whales' movement for short time.maybe we must attend to whales' movement for short time, however , In the current situation, it seems that it is better to be a buyer, The increase in the price of BTC has various reasons, but one of them is the wink it gives to the ETF. We have to pay attention to the fact that ETF conditions are associated with cash and this can be in conflict with the nature of BTC. I am worried that we will face a relatively large drop for BTC after the possible ETF is not approved. However, examining the possibilities in digital currency is a very difficult task, and it is possible to see the future better only by speculation.
Short
by Farazmand
2
Bitcoin patterns and cyclesHere's a post not many people will like! But as a professional trader of over 23 years now, I can say, one does not stay in the game this long without learning a thing or two. This year I started my Christmas break a little early wound down and been enjoying some hobbies and movies. Last night I watched the film called Dumb money, it emphasised the retail mindset so much! That convinced me to write this little post. People confuse being bearish with being anti crypto, anti Bitcoin. This could not be further from the truth. I have been VERY fortunate in terms of Bitcoin and Crypto for that matter. First entering a punt position in 2011. Needless to say, I am still profitable ;-) So what does get to me, is the little knowledge retail posses. There was a scene in the movie that highlighted just how the big boys win, but it wasn't just this scene where the Fund Manager calls his buddie - the buddie says, "how much you need, never mind the number, I'll do it" Yet, it wasn't even this that got me to write this post. It was the sheer fact that all the way through - the "dumb money" was searching for a signal, using terms like diamond hands and so on. What clicked for me, was whilst of course - holding my Bitcoin I bought in 2011 would be immense when it tops $250,000 or even $1million. The real question should be - when is enough, enough? It's this that separates us pro's and the dumb money. Back in 2021 on the run up - I shared this post about the re-accumulation phase. It was here the first clues to institutional money became apparent. Then the move from the major high back to 28 was obvious. The move back to the current ATH also the same. The way back to the bottom - the same. The issue then was - Personally, I wanted this to be early accumulation. I was wrong! It was and still is much earlier than I anticipated! (maybe I would have liked) Why, well, I still hold Bitcoin and don't short it. I believe in the future and once it's fully regulated and controlled, there's no stopping it becoming the digital gold standard for sure! So, where I was wrong - I really wanted the move up to be 30-32k to give a textbook move up for an ST down, collect liquidity and go. We then proceeded to go up without grabbing that extra liquidity. The issue therefor, is a simple one. We need to secure that just like filling a car for a long road trip. I shared this as a concern in September last year. Whilst secretly praying it wouldn't play out like this. Unfortunately - it's exactly what we did ... Now I scrap the early stage accumulation in favour for still being negative sentiment. Yup, we are simply not ready for the power play up. Blackrock WILL NOT be bag carries for retail and that I am certain. Now, here is the logic. Summary view Step one: Take a look at the momentum and volume when moving impulsively. Then the nested 0-1 move inside the larger up move. Look at what happened when we really made some headway. Now, as the tides turned - what did we see? This was clear as day, we built momentum to the downside as we saw aggressive RED candles. This might make it easier to spot the difference? I've shared my concerns on the monthly stochastic. Which then brings me back to "What I didn't want to happen" After watching the movie last night, this thing is going to shake out the weak whilst the pro's enjoy the discounts again. Value areas have not changed much for me since the re-accumulation up first major ATH above 60k. Anyways - just wanted to share this. Stay safe, enjoy the Holidays! Wish you all a Happy New Year! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
21
BTC Correction Off the Ba k of ETF News?BTC on a weekly has been on a tear and is obviously over heated from all technical regards. However there is strong fundamental news holding the price up in anticipation of the SPOT ETF deadline in January 2024. I am proposing a theory that goes against the general sentiment in the market right now - in the face of everyones over bullishness, including Bloomberg analyst forecasting a 99% ETF Approval odds in January, I can see a delay. Heres my timeline: 1. January ETF deadlines will be denied or delayed. 2. The price will bomb off the news, scaring everyone. 3. Ark Invest will obviously refile with the necessary adjustments. 4. BTC will find support somewhere above 25k. 5. March - all BTC SPOT ETFs will be approved on the BlackRock deadline. 6. April - BTC supply will halve - Supply shock accompanied by renewed hype of the SPOT approvals. 7. May - June major capitol begins to flow in from ETFs and we go Lamborghini candle mode. This is all showing in price action history. Historically major progressive announcements in the crypto space have resulted in a flash correction - reference the chart - notice the large correction that resulted after CoinBase IPO. The Price action looks very similar to previous local tops that coincided with giga bullish news - again resulting in a flash correction to major support. Further - We never confirmed 30K as support after almost an entire year of resistance. This needs to happen for healthy market structure moving into the BullRun post halving. Lastly we are currently trading between the .5 & .618 fibonacci retracement from the ATH and the bear market low. There will be major sell pressure coming in between 48-50K and I can see a spike to that price if the ETFs are approved and then a Rapid sell off to back test 30K. Smart DCA - Buy weekly now with half your strength - set the other half to the side for a potential and highly likely correction. I have been Bullish since 15K, I knew i was right because everyone was Bearish. Im Short term Bearish now because everyone in the world is calling for new ATH before the Halving and a 100K BTC by January - It wont happen! Dont get FOMOd.
Short
by AlexSpicer94
2
Trading AutomationI am just going to put it out there, as you know I have said time and time again in my streams. Personally, the whole automated trading concept is not for me. However, that’s not to say there are not some good strategies, tools and instruments that could work for some people. Risk tolerance, time frames, bull vs bear markets all play a role in trading. This is emphasised when the trading is automated. A few weeks back, myself and @Paul_Varcoe starting streaming about shorter timeframes and automation. We said we were working on something in the background – mostly to do with trading via prop firms. Here’s on of my streams on that topic. So, the next part was automation. Here's one of these streams: www.tradingview.com I have been lurking around a couple of services, tools and platforms – one of these is a company/product called 3Commas. A few things I found interesting. One of which is that it supports multiple cryptocurrency exchanges, allowing users to trade on various platforms using a single interface. For the Tradingview community this is a very useful option. You can even go as far as connecting your bot to one or more TradingView indicators of your choice, and the bot will automatically receive alerts and open trades accordingly. My reluctance of automation has always been, if a bot can do it – we won’t need Doctors or Police officers as they will all want to be professional traders. I have also spent some time in the money management sector and know the investment and effort some very large operators have put into the automation game. What I liked about this 3commas platform, is that it opens the door for retail to play in this world. Having access to trading bots that can execute trades automatically based on predefined strategies is one factor, it still requires users to set up custom trading strategies or choose from a marketplace of existing strategies developed by other users. So, what this means is if you have a specific trading strategy you can link directly from Tradingview and just allow it to open trades. I have taken this image as an example from their site, it’s easier than trying to write it myself. There also seems to be a lot of open-source code, literature and information readily available online. All beneficial factors if you’re planning on going down the automation route. Myself and Paul have been more conventional traders, operating in well established markets. But of course we have had our dabbles in alt coins, Bitcoin and so on. It seems to be the way the world is shifting. I have been using webhooks on Tradingview recently to trade Aussie dollar and Euro on smaller timeframes just sending an alert to one of my channels – but the ability to take out the execution stage is a new one on me. If you’re a crypto fanatic I can say this is worth a look for sure! When looking at this automation, I found another editors pick here on @TradingView So, although I know very little about the strategy or the individual trader @Bjorgum who wrote the article, it’s a great example of the type of power mixing things like 3Commas and Tradingview can yield. Throughout 2023 I have shown and shared several articles on Prop firm trading, shorter timeframes and even how to use Chat GPT to write Tradingview indicators. Link to one of them: www.tradingview.com My next step is to use chat GPT to program an indicator I can fully automate (market condition depending) to link to 3Commas using TV as the glue. Here’s an example of what I mean: I literally asked ChatGPT this question “can you write a pinescript version 4 code to enter trades based on pivot point breakouts taking profits at S2 and R2 with stop losses in the other direction at R1 and S1.” I got a reply; Before you ask - The code will probably get rejected to put out as an indicator as Pinescript will say “Pivot point indicators are readily available” but copy and paste my question above and you should get a similar result. Of course, this is only an example. Feel free to play around with your own strategies and concepts. The idea then is to take this through the papertesting and backtesting to refine a strategy that you feel comfortable with in terms of plugging into a bot and connecting to your broker. The whole concept for me is mind blowing, the fact that anyone can have a Tradingview account, use ChatGPT to build and indicator and execute a trade via your broker on a platform like 3Commas. Over the next couple of weeks I intend on digging a little deeper with these and either start with using ChatGPT to link a strategy via Tradingview into 3Commas or take a strategy or indicator off the shelf and test drive it in a stream or sequence of streams. Maybe give me some ideas, if you like? what timeframes? What instruments etc... This will be part of the educational, how to make trading automation a real thing series. Anyways! Enjoy the Holidays - Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
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