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12/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $48582.05 Last weeks low: $45414.55 Midpoint: $42247.04 What a crazy rally from BTC last week! From the very start creating the weekly low and the end of the week creating the weekly high with a near perfect linear move up. With 49K as the local high consolidation just under this level is extremely bullish and with the halving moving ever closer BTC is looking very strong currently. I believe that most people myself included would see one last drop towards the mid 30K range to really catapult up from there, the big ETF players could lower their DCA and propel BTC to a new ATH a few months after the halving. However max pain would simply be BTC leaving everyone that is waiting for lower prices side-lined and push up towards the highs ahead of schedule. So for this week a close eye needs to be on the structure of BTC around this local high. Any swing fail pattern would be very tempting to enter a short position, I believe a lot of people would welcome that setup, if that was the case you would need a very tight SL in case the rally continues. The more chop we see at these levels the more likely that is too happen in my opinion.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
What does the arrival of Spot Bitcoin ETFs mean for US investorsAfter a long journey, the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved in the United States of America. This is the latest step on the path to bitcoin, and digital assets more generally, becoming mainstream. To help clarify how this chain of events unfolded, and where the story could go next, this is an edited summary of a discussion with Ryan Louvar, Chief Legal Officer at WisdomTree, which took place in full on the Crypto Clarified podcast1. The main points covered were: The main obstacles that had to be overcome for approval The reasons why a spot bitcoin ETF is a positive for investors and digital assets’ place in a portfolio as a diversifier What to expect in terms of uptake over different timeframes What to expect in the near future as the asset class becomes more mainstream Benjamin Dean (BD): Ryan, happy bitcoin spot ETF effective date to you. Ryan Louvar (RL): It’s a super exciting day. Even going back six months ago, I can’t say I was on the optimist side. But seeing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) grant an effective registration statement to allow bitcoin ETFs, as well as the listings, is great. Obstacles to overcome BD: What were those final obstacles that had to be overcome and how have almost a dozen different issuers had their applications approved and become effective? RL: I was on a panel at Bitcoin 2021 with a couple of other ETF issuers. We were asked to predict if we thought that 2021 would be the year. There was some optimism because the new chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, had spoken at MIT about this topic. However, there were hurdles before through that prior SEC administration. I said that there was a decent chance 2021 would be the year. But we have a new SEC administration now, and the similar denials continued. The rationale was that there just aren’t enough protective mechanisms in place to create a market that would be resistant to fraud and manipulation. Ultimately, the focus was on the spot bitcoin market, and the SEC said there needs to be a regulated spot bitcoin market of sufficient size to be able to trade. This was really against historical precedent because if you think about other spot markets like gold in particular, those ETFs had been approved and there isn’t a regulated gold market, certainly not one overseen by the SEC, and not one as had been described by the SEC as a requirement. A watershed moment occurred when the SEC allowed futures ETFs, including bitcoin futures ETFs. They allowed a percentage of the underlying exposure to be futures and then allowed 100% futures exposure. Even at that point, WisdomTree was the first ETF to have any bitcoin futures exposure, with under 5% in one of our US-listed ETFs. The thought was that we were right there, almost at the finish line to then have a spot ETF. We chose at the time to have limited exposure because we thought that it had the potential to be a diversifier in a portfolio. We chose not to launch a 100% bitcoin futures product just because of the potential issues in a 100% bitcoin futures product, such as contango and not tracking the price of bitcoin. We were very steadfast in our belief that a spot bitcoin product was the best execution for investors seeking exposure to the spot price of bitcoin. We leveraged our experience in Europe where we have a successful crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) range including a spot bitcoin ETP. There was really no action from the SEC until they got sued by Grayscale. There was a lawsuit from Grayscale, and they said that the SEC’s decision here, the denials, were just arbitrary and capricious. A court agreed with them. It’s not often that the SEC loses. The court made it possible for the SEC to essentially include additional information for their decision. Based upon the past ten years, I thought that the SEC would continue to deny an approval and produce additional reasons for it. Ultimately, they had until 10 January to make that decision. Going back just three months ago, it wasn’t clear what path the SEC was going to take. It only became clear once the SEC started to comment on the prospectuses after a few years of silence, that cleared the way for progress. Then you saw ETF issuers filing updated S-1 type of registration statements that include the prospectus. This was really a couple of months ago. Then you saw a flurry of activity from the regulatory side, updated prospectuses every couple of weeks, then updated prospectuses every couple of days, to now, we are launching this morning. Yes, that’s the history, it’s hard to believe. It’s really been truly historic. I mean, just the historical, call it a roller coaster ride. Today we’re excited to be an issuer launching a spot bitcoin ETF, but it’s also historic to have all the other issuers launching as well. Our experience in ETFs both in Europe and digital assets is going to be a differentiator for us. It will be an interesting few months for sure. Role in a portfolio as a potential diversifier BD: Do you have any views or thoughts around how one should conceive the coming days, months, and years? What does success look like? RL: If we look back on the birth of the US ETF industry with the SPDR, it took a couple of years for the SPDR to really take off and gain traction. Now it’s over 20 years old, and I think it’s over $300 billion at this point. I think we’ll see the same with bitcoin, in taking time to fully gain traction. Going back a couple of years, financial advisors told us they have clients who’d like to have at least a portion of their portfolio in an asset that can serve as a diversifier. It’s got to be the right client as bitcoin is a volatile asset, so there’s risk there. Bitcoin can certainly serve its place in the right client’s portfolio. Those advisors will now be trying to work with their clients to understand the full financial picture. Their client might say, “By the way, I have bitcoin as well and it’s sitting in my personal wallets or on this third-party platform or wherever.” So, really, by having the vehicle that's suited to many investors in the ETF, it will really help from a financial advisory standpoint as well as a general investor standpoint to have that access. The other thing is the transparency. ETFs have to disclose their holdings, so the amount of bitcoin a spot ETF holds will be available on the issuer website every day. Holding bitcoin in your own wallet can have some merit for a lot of people, but many don’t understand that mechanism or don’t want to. An ETF is a wrapper they do understand, and it comes with traditional third-party oversight from a trusted organisation like WisdomTree. It’s bringing a lot to the table but like any new asset, I think it’s going to take time for the marketplace to really absorb it. Certainly, a lot of the traditional ETF platforms are going to have to conduct diligence. A lot of that requires some track record, six months in some cases for some assets. I think there will be demand, but it’s a journey. Today’s just the beginning. It’s not dissimilar to a floating rate Treasury ETF. Treasuries are renowned for being plain vanilla, but that took a little while to gain a bit of traction. Bitcoin is a very different asset to treasuries in terms of risk profile, but it can potentially have its place. What could uptake look like in the near term? BD: It’s an interesting moment in the United States because the couple of years really, have been negative and so acrimonious. You go to Asia or Latin America and people don’t have the same hangups. But in the US, it has been different. RL: I was surprised when I travelled to many Asian countries over the summer and saw that bitcoin is widely available and used as a currency. Here in the US, being US-centric, we sometimes lose that perspective. We’re getting used to inflation in the US but not hyperinflation. So, it’s a great point that we don’t see in the US much, so it surprised me during my travels abroad. Where does the digital asset industry go from here BD: Looking at the US, what does this round of approvals mean for the digital asset industry? What do you see coming forward? RL: I think the next turning point is Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency. There are now ETFs that hold Ethereum futures. So, if you think about the history, ETFs were first allowed by the SEC to hold bitcoin futures and then some months later, Ether futures. I do think those will be the next that might get attention. To me, the biggest thing is that bitcoin and digital assets more broadly are being talked about as investable assets. For us at WisdomTree it’s important because we’re not only focused on ETFs, which has been our historical focus, we’re also bringing a direct-to-retail platform to investors in the US. Right now, they can directly access bitcoin via an app on their phone. They can directly access Ether, SEC-registered blockchain-enabled mutual funds and work with those in one portfolio. So, I think having these avenues and bringing more attention to the asset class is only going to put a spotlight on how investors might be able to think about this new asset class and bitcoin in particular. Sources 1 open.spotify.com This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CME:BTC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Bitcoin UPDATE!ITS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! as i can see last time bitcoin did not breake 49k and had hard resistance and in Weekly Chart bitcoin is showing alot of bearish signs no matter what u put on chart is always showing for bearish my idea is that Bitcoin can retest again 45-49K zone if it dosnt manage to breakeout we will see again the lows which is gonna be good for buying and holding till bullrun which i expect to be on year 2025 and its better to be 50% in and 50% out in this moment NEWS ABOUT Grayscale FOR ETF! grayscale momentaly is selling btc from their trust (theres a chance because the fees are too high for GBTC) Germany In Recesion! germany is the first country on EU to go in recession (Bearish Sign Too) and i expect since germany was the first country the others will go too High Bank Loans FEES! ETC,ETC,ETC
by sakicasignals
2
Another case showing BTC post is irrelevant as Derivatives dictaDaily CRYPTOCAP:BTC shorts are non existent at the moment. Short term, the #BTC downtrend is still intact. There's a tiny symmetrical triangle formed. (direction broken will dictate the push) Volume is paltry. As if there is a wait for something. $ Money Flow & RSI not showing much. ---------------------------------- Weekly Chart $ Flow better vs Spot #Bitcoin. So much spot was sold yet it held, why? What have we been saying for years?!?!?! Spot doesn't matter, DERIVATIVES Dictate!!!!!!!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC Bitcoin Potential Rally soon!!I told you about the 'buy the rumor, sell the news' strategy on the Bitcoin ETF approval in the last article We approached the price target of 39K last Friday, and I believe that was the last dip for now! With the stock market at an all-time high, I anticipate crypto assets to follow suit. Elon Musk is likely to implement Bitcoin and DOGE on his new platform, X Payments. So, yes, exciting times ahead! According to Elliott waves, the next price target for BTC is $43,500.
Long
by TopgOptions
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. Here's the actual chart. What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. Well, I guess the second move played out. The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
74
Halving Forecast Just a quick idea on the state of BTC going into the halving. The countdown to the next big BITCOIN event has started, THE HALVING Historically this is the event that kicks off the BULLRUN every 4 years. Mining rewards go from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC and this gives miners a dilemma, do they hold on to their BTC they earn and only sell to cover costs, this diminishes the supply going into the market which raises prices assuming demand remains the same. Or if they do carry on selling their BTC it would be half the amount it was previously and still contributes less to the sells side pressure, raising prices. ETF issuers need these coins to offer to customers + retail investors returning to the market once FOMO enters the playing field. DEMAND UP SUPPLY DOWN As for now I could see a mirror of the ETF rally being a logical path towards the halving. Filling the FVG at 33k would be a great long term entry point for any investor/trader should it hold as support. Once price has wicked down into that area and there's a reaction off that level then the bulls should look to push price for that 3 weeks or so going into the halving and beyond towards ATH as there's not much stopping it and history suggests this is the way BTC behaves after this event every 4 years.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
1
Solana(SOL): Waiting For Perfect Setup! Solana coin has had massive growth, as we have talked about earlier, where the price seems to have topped out, and now we are looking for some correction. What caught our attention here is our favourite middle line of Bollinger bands, which has been acting as a supportive line for the last couple of months. Now that we finally broke the line, price is re-testing that zone, and we are looking here for some rejection to happen!! We are not rushing into trading yet, but we see nice potential for both longs and shorts. A long scenario would be active if we secured that upper resistance zone, which would lead to massive growth on the Solana coin! What are your thought on Solana coin?? Will it see ATH soon or we will see a smaller correction before that?
by SwallowAcademy
7
🔥 Bitcoin Bulls Put Up A Fight: Still Waiting For A DumpYesterday we saw the BTC bulls put up a show with over 5% gains over the course of the day. Personally, I was not expecting such a bullish day to happen anytime soon. Part of the explanation is the oversold RSI on higher time frames for the first time in months, combined with shorts getting liquidated. For now, I'm still not convinced that the bulls have the overhand in the short-term. A clear rejection from 42,200 indicates that bears are still dominating the short-term. However, if the bulls can pull through we might see a move towards 43,500 or higher. I stand by my earlier analyses where I discussed my idea of the ETF being a longer-term top. To invalidate that analysis I'd like to see a move above 50k in the next 1-2 months. Personally, I think we're going to see 50k after the halving. Time will tell.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
13
Bitcoin - Long-Term Log View - Targeting 200k 🎯Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 🖇Following my last BTC Monthly log view analysis on November 11, 2022, we anticipated the bulls taking control after rejecting the lower green trendline and horizontal support. What's Next? 📈 If the current all-time high (highlighted in red) is surpassed, we anticipate a 254% increase, mirroring the last bull cycle. This aligns with the upper boundary of the green channel and the 250k round number. ⚠️ However, the journey may encounter bumps, leading to sharp correction movements to shake out weak hands. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
35
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult. This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies. With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent. For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
AMEX:DBCLong
by Maximus20000
Grayscale Gravestone DojiThe price has started its descent off a Gravestone Doji. Selling pressure expected to last into the spring. This is either a good place to look for short entries, or a good chart to watch to buy into GBTC at a discount. RSI suggests GBTC has just began its descent. The ideal place the PA looks to land after the dust settles is around the .618 fib retracement level which coincides with a major support and the convergence of the 50, 100 and 200 simple moving averages. Comment and Boost if you enjoy the content! NFA, do your own DD
AMEX:GBTCShort
by BallsOfSteel32
Bitcoin and Gold ETFHi. Happy new year everyone! As you can see on the chart bitcoin can partially repeat the gold fractal, at least a few analysis on the fractal coincide, pay attention to the blue fractal. I think yesterday's pumping of altcoin and decrease of bitcoin dominance will give an understanding that it is possible to enter the market, and the fomo will start in the next 10-14 days, after the crowd enters the market we will see the very correction in several movements. I will sell most of the altcoin portfolio and wait for the correction of 25-35% to increase the number of coins . Now it is difficult to say the target of the correction ( look at fibo) . Let's first wait for January 20-24. Best Regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
41
$BYC gap filled & more dataGood Morning/Afternoon Update The CRYPTOCAP:BTC GAP was FILLED yesterday. 38k is minor support, don't expect a stand there but bounce possible. Dotted lines are Fibonacci levels. #BTC 37k price target very close. #Bitcoin 32k is a stretch but anything is possible with a volatile asset. Bearish moving avg crossover is shown by the yellow Circle ------ Shown elsewhere, see profile for more info: A big X account speaks about positive divergence on 4hr chart. Futures shows nothing of the sort. Spot #BTC shows TINY divergence but NOT what should be used to trade or step in, IMO. Bounce? Maybe, we said CRYPTOCAP:BTC is at small support Don't see any signs of turnaround for #bitcoin yet. Sell volume is reducing, that's a +.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
🔥 Bitcoin Lost HUGE Daily Support: Beginning Of The EndIn my recent analyses I've written several times that I expected the ETF launch to be a major top, which has played out perfectly thus far. Furthermore, I indicated that the 41.2k-40k range as a major area of support for Bitcoin. As of now, BTC is making a lot of effort to penetrate said support. In case BTC doesn't reverse from here, we're going to see a major daily support around 41.2k broken for the first time since early December. This looks bearish. Seems to me that the break of 40k is a matter of time. Could be either today or in the next few days. We're likely seeing the start of some kind of major sell-off that will occur over the next few weeks. Time will tell.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
28
My 2023 Bitcoin ShortSince September 2023 Bitcoin has been in a rally predicated on the Bitcoin ETF launch. The chart has setup in accordance with my technical rules to finally short (bet against) the price action. I am also going to use this post to expand upon my broader bearish outlook on Bitcoin at present and into the future. I was definitively Bullish on Bitcoin in Q1 if 2023 (see linked past Bitcoin posts here on Tradingview) but I am now of the opinion this rally has stalled and will reverse. -The Trade:- Bitcoin has hit a MAJOR Resistance of the 50% Retracement from the All Time High to the November 2021 low at 42235 (see chart below) which I have been noting in my Weekly Livestream all year. Price overshot the level but as we go into this weekend price will close above or below it to reject or confirm it as Resistance. This Sunday night Weekly bar close will affect my outlook. Within the "impulse" move off the recent high the 50% level is 42457 and is remarkably aligned with the wider 50% level. The first profit objective of my short it the 50% of the September onward bullish trend at 34800 but will be a partial take profit with some left on for more bearish action. If price closes back above the 50% Retracements this weekend and/or a new recent high is made then it is likely I will close my short and re-evaluate. To express this trade I am not "shorting Bitcoin" proper but rather buying Puts on AMEX:BITO with expirations in June 2024. Weekly 50% Retracement view: -Bitcoin ETF: "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News"- I remain of the opinion that the Bitcoin ETF Launch will be a "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" type event. Much optimistic speculation has been placed upon the prospect of "Boomers Buying Bitcoin" because now they (retirees and institutions) can purchase Bitcoin in their retirement accounts. As I noted, I am expressing my trade using BITO which is a Bitcoin Trust instrument. There are already plenty of Bitcoin derivative products available for typical investors to use. Ergo, it is not obvious to me how an ETF launching will change the landscape significantly. Furthermore, I am reminded of a similar event in the past; the launching of CBOE Bitcoin Futures. Futures on Bitcoin launched on December 17th, 2017 literally marking that high and the end of that rally. -Price Outlook: Things are Different Now?- The bullish case for Bitcoin now even after the ETF launches is the coming Halving Cycle. Everyone note that it has created loosely bullish price action 3 out of 3 past times and will likely do so again. First, I do not thins 3/3 is statistically significant. Second, causation or correlation? Was it the Halving Cycle that made Bitcoin bullish or just the fact that it has been going up all this time anyway? One must acknowledge that Bitcoin was born and grew in a 0% interest rate environment which no longer exists. That fundamentally changes the amount of capital that is being infused into Bitcoin which created the 2021 rally. People like to share historical charts and then superimpose them to current price action. Most social media posts you will see are bullish because those are the ones that get the most engagement. No where else have I seen this glaringly obvious (to me) comparison of the current rally in context of the 2019 price action (below). I recall distinctly at that time that everyone was convinced the months prior were just a small hiccup and the new ATH rally was underway. Instead, we had a major economic event (COVID) to come that would push Bitcoin back down to close to the bear market lows again. 2019 versus 2023 -Future Outlook: What is Bitcoin?- The question, "what is Bitcoin?" has been asked for over a decade. I myself became interested in Bitcoin as a "tool for human freedom" that made sense to me from my Information Technology background and Libertarian political leanings. However, I have sadly watched as Bitcoin has been "normalized" in favor of "mainstream adoption" to the point we have reached now where large institutions buying Bitcoin is heralded as an accomplishment. That was never the point... as I see it nor as Satoshi's whitepaper wrote. Over the last few months I have consumed the mainstream (of Bitcoin Maximalist) social media posts and derived that the opinion of Bitcoin is NOT one of replacing the fiat dollar nor disrupting the traditional financial system. Instead the memes have been centered around some flavor or "Buy it now before the price goes higher!" Lost are the memes of yesteryear about Bitcoin combating inflation (due in part likely to the fact that the Fed's actions are actually yielding desired results). The memes around Bitcoin during this rally are frankly reminiscent of Dogecoin COINBASE:DOGEUSD TO THE MOON!!! When I attended the first Bitcoin conference in New York in 2011, we were all excited to do something never done before: buy lunch with Bitcoin. A shop down the street from the hotel venue (which at that time could only hold about 250 people) had setup a terminal to accept Bitcoin as payment. This was revolutionary at the time (there were no online payment apps such as Venmo, Zelle, or Apple pay yet invented). Two things happened: Confirmations were slow. A long queue began to develop as people waited for payments to go through. We got hungry. I sat at a table with Jesse Powell, the hitherto future founder of Kraken, who I estimated was sitting on 10s of thousands of Bitcoin... who paid for his lunch with US Dollars. What I learned in 2011 about Bitcoin was: The technology is slow and cumbersome for transaction volume People that own Bitcoin will not spend it Nothing has fundamentally changed on those points in 12 years despite the smartest of technical and economic experts' best efforts. If we look at the average confirmation time for Bitcoin it stands at 64 minutes and the average transaction fee is $25.11. That latter number has been increasing dramatically since the start of November. It is not because of the bullish rally (which began in September). It is because of the failure of Lightning Network. Lightning network was supposed to fix these technical limitations of speed and fees with Bitcoin by adding a layer on top of Bitcoin. Unfortunately, in late October experts discovered a major vulnerability in Lightning Network's programming that would allow nefarious actors to steal Lightning Network Bitcoin. Since then, over half a decade of work and hopes put into Lightning Network have been dashed as the developers now begin to look at a new implementation. The failure of Lightning Network in no way means "Bitcoin is dead." The Layer 1 Bitcoin network is robust as ever. Bitcoin just remains terribly unsuited to be the replacement for global currency. But as I noted above, it was never going to be because no will spend money today that they believe can buy more stuff tomorrow. It is great for the buyer to wait and buy two hamburgers next week for the price today... but bad for businesses that make hamburgers who will go out of business next week if no one buys hamburgers this week. So what is the "use case" of Bitcoin? If we cite that Al Gore invented the Internet in 1985, when the Internet was 13 years old (like Bitcoin) people were using it to send email, host databases, and order goods and services. We were unaware of the true future use cases of the Internet but many of these uses were already underway and people and businesses were using it to save money and/or sell more goods and services. The Internet was a wealth generation machine: it created value. So it pains me to acknowledge now that Bitcoin has settled on a single use case: "personal wealth generation" and rather than generate new wealth it instead acts as a vacuum of capital. TL;DR: The ETF launch will be a "Sell the News" event. I am now of the opinion that Bitcoin has lost its way to being a disruptive technology. I am of the opinion that this rally will not make a new All Time High.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
124