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BTC futures dictate price, people still don't get itSince the price action reversal on CRYPTOCAP:BTC it has been struggling. (also sold CRYPTOCAP:ETH & CRYPTOCAP:LTC few days later) There is way too much positivity in this space for what's happening. #bitcoin is at the top portion of the gap, but may not hold and will likely fill & trade lower. We have been huge proponents of using futures data vs spot #BTC If you only use spot CRYPTOCAP:BTC you're at a disadvantage RSI looks similar but look @ $ flow Futures #BTC showed cracks in mid/late December #Bitcoin Fibonacci 50% from RECENT trend low = 37k 50% from 12/22 low = 32
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
1
22/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43584.42 Last weeks low: $41935.80 Midpoint: $40287.19 With the BTC sell off underway post ETF approval, we start the week hovering just under the previous weeks low of 41.5k. This area is the key S/R zone in my opinion and for now it looks like BTC bulls are struggling to reclaim that level. I previously stated in the last weeks outlook that there is a strong magnet pulling price towards the 33K area FVG . To reach that area and react positively off the level would be very bullish and should begin the next leg up towards 50K+ going into the run up for THE HALVING . For now BTC bleeding is causing the altcoin market to do the same, however as normal altcoins do tend to bleed against BTC as well for example SOL is now sub $90 and falling, good opportunities will present themselves in the coming days/weeks for the next leg up in the Bullrun but patience is key. In conclusion the ETF news was a sell the news event, Blackrock and others are scooping up large sums of BTC at discounted rates as market makers push the prices lower. That in turn drags altcoin prices down with it and now it seems we're heading towards the 30K's . My final target would be ~33K before looking towards becoming bullish again. I will rethink that plan if BTC was able to reclaim 41.5K with strength. Short term bearish long term bullish
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
2
🔥 Bitcoin: Just A Dip? What Does 2016 Tell usPreface: I'm still bearish on BTC as per my most recent analyses. The ETF launch likely signaled a major top, potentially until the halving. My most likely scenario's are shown below. That being said, I think it's worthwhile to look at the market from different perspectives. In this analysis I'm going to compare the 2016-2017 bull-run with the 2023 bull-run. Back then, BTC experienced many 30%-40% drops over the course of 2 years. In the end, every dip was a dip to be bought which led to some very good returns. Thus far, the 2023 (and 2024) bull-run has had several dips around 20%, which all proved to be very good entry points. We had to admit to ourselves that it's possible that the drop after the ETF launch is a dip to be bought. Furthermore, the dips getting less deep than 8 years ago is a natural consequence of the market maturing and becoming less volatile. Is this just a dip, or are we facing a longer-term correction? Happy to hear your thoughts!
Long
by FieryTrading
18
BTC Market Update 22nd JanuaryIn the week subsequent to the introduction of the BTC Spot ETF, the cumulative trading volume across all 11 ETFs has reached $9.8 billion, with GBTC alone contributing $4.6 billion to this total. Since its transformation from a Trust into an ETF, GBTC has witnessed $1.17 billion in outflows, as shown in this link . This trend was anticipated, given GBTC's consistent trading at a discount since 2020, with the discount reaching as much as -48% at the beginning of 2023. The conversion to an ETF has been eagerly awaited by GBTC investors, presenting an opportunity to exit at par value. The current uncertainty revolves around the extent to which investors will withdraw from GBTC's $25.4 billion in assets under management. Following the ETF approval, BTC's price reached a peak of $49,100 but has since declined, stabilizing above the $40,000 support level. Trading volumes have decreased after the initial surge post-launch, and attention now shifts to the ongoing outflows from GBTC. This phase is likely a temporary market absorption, and it is anticipated that we may witness some choppy movements followed by positive momentum as we approach the Bitcoin halving in the next three months. #BitcoinETF #CryptoMarket #TradingTrends #GBTC #MarketOutlook #CryptoNews
by TheArabianWhale
2
BTC Rejected of Macro .618, Now What?So if we look at last cycles on Bitcoin and apply Fibonacci from bull cycle to bear market bottom, we have bear rallies to 0.618-0.66 area and then we reject and dump hard until halving and real bull cycle starts. We have seen the same, I had this plan since November. In my opinion most likely scenario now is slow bleed to the downside (not saying we won't have small bounces). February-March we go down and we have a huge buy opportunity for BTC and alts around 34-28k area. I'll start buying at 34 and will add to 28. I don't think we will close any daily candle below 28k. This is just my opinion, for more you can visit: cryptoaliens.io
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by cryptoalienss
3
🔥 Predicting Bitcoin's Price On The 2024 Halving: Dump Ahead?In this analysis I want to shed some light on an interesting relationship that I found between bear-market bottroms and the price of Bitcoin during the halving. This analysis is speculative and based on 2 previous occurences, so take it with a grain of salt. The relationship that I found is as follows: 2nd halving: price at halving = 300% off the bottom. 3rd halving: price at halving = 200% off the bottom. Percentages rounded to hundreds. Omitting first halving because market was not mature. So my assumption would be that the price on the 4th halving, the next one, would be 100% from the 15.500$ bottom, so around 31.000$ With BTC reversing after the ETF launch, a move towards 31.000$ is not even that far-fetched, since it functioned as a very important resistance of the majority of 2023 and therefore functions as a magnet. Do you think this is a reasonable analysis? Happy to hear your thoughts!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
10
🔥 Bitcoin: All Signs Pointing To Deep CorrectionOver the last few weeks I've been repeating the same message over and over: the ETF launch is NOT a moment to buy and will most likely lead to a short-term correction. The ETF, combined with long-term resistances & bearish divergence made it a statistically bad time to buy. After a ~16% correction from the top, we're now trading around the 41k area. In my view, we're soon going to test the real support of the 4 month bull-trend: the 40k support. The battle will be fierce, but I expect the bears to pull through. 40k will be lost and a bigger correction is due. My target for the next couple of weeks is the bottom yellow support of the channel.
Short
by FieryTrading
7
The ETF AftermathIt has been 1 year almost to the day since my last publication and what a 12 months it has been. I previously laid out the case for a pending future recession but not before we saw massive regular bullish divergence play out on the monthly time frame for Bitcoin. Since then we've seen a 187% move in BTC, a 25% move in the S&P 500 and every commentator, pundit and analyst confident that a recession has been avoided and a soft landing inevitable. I'm here now telling you that I believe it to be no coincidence that the previous fundamental legacy events of which bitcoin has experienced in its past, once in Dec 2017 and the other in April 2021 has resulted in massive price corrections of 83 and 53% respectively within days of the CME and IPO announcements. Albeit the likelihood of such massive corrections are lesser given where we are in the macro cycle I do believe a sizable correction will occur days following this announcement. What is of significant interest on the chart is the previous macro fibonacci extensions of the precious 2 cycles. That being a confluent correction at the 0.5 fib level and seeing a 40% and 72% correction there after. A 0.5 extension in this current cycle would suggest a monthly wick above $48500 followed by again a sizable correction. To pontificate as to the extent of this correction I pose the following possibilities. -A 30% drawdown to the 200 SMA, a support level which has served Bitcoin well historically -A 40% drawdown to the 6 and a half year support line of macro lows. -Or an unthinkable 70% correction somewhere around the previous bear market low, 2017 bull market high and the resistance held in July 2019 and Aug 2020. For this to take place we need to consider some very worst case scenarios and evaluate the current macro/geopolitical landscape. -Escalation of war in Russian Ukraine. -Escalation of war in Israel Palestine. -Military development of China's desire to remove Taiwan's international independence. -The largest inversion of the 10 year 2 year yield curve in 40 years. -The largest contraction of US M2 money supply since the great depression. -A continuation of what is already a 50% crash in China's real estate market. -A UK real estate crisis once affordability ceases as mortgages need rolling over after a 10,000% increase in interest rates. -A US real estate crisis as 11 monthly falsified unemployment data is realised -The energy and manufacturing crisis in europe compounded by the highest debt to GDP ratio in its history -A Hollywood presidential election between a criminal and a dementia patient. My point is the macro landscape is looking unpredictable and the TA has much confluence. This feels very much like it did in the beginning of 2020 just before the un-inversion of the yield curve and the then pending recession. It's almost like something globally needs to be orchestrated in order to create an excuse to lower rates and roll the debt over for another 4 years!! Who knows it might even be a cyber attack and CBDC implementation ;-) Either way Bitcoin will still be doing its thing. Keep yourself and those satoshi's safe.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MrGoose83
Other things to think aboutMorning folks, So, there some some jokes on the market already that BTC is becoming a stable coin... Indeed volatility has dropped drastically. But this could easily explained. If nobody is buying right now but all selling offers are swallowed by ETF whales - where coin should move? For instance, only BlackRock as bought in a single session this week more than 11K BTC. This is 10 times more than mined per day (900 BTC). Think about - how technical analysis could be applied for market right now? We continue to point that appearing of ETF is part of a big plan to take government control over the crypto markets. After some time free BTC float will be locked on ETF accounts. Exchanges that trade cash BTC (not ETF shares) will start loosing their business as turnover of cash BTC will drop miserably.... For now, we have H&S pattern that we've discussed previously and keep watching over it. If ETFs will keep supporting market from further drop, we should get upside bounce. Thus we consider 45-45.2K area for potential short position. For now we do not see many things to do. No good bullish signals either for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
GOLD|Important areas of supply and demandHello friends, I hope you are well. We have the gold chart in the one-hour time frame. Yesterday we said that we will wait if the support zone is broken down, the next target is the zone (2005-2008). Now in this area, with the formation of candlestick patterns, it has moved upwards. The areas that are important for us are the bottom of the previous broken area (2013) and the next area of the origin of the downward aggressive movement, i.e. the price range (2024-2028) for sell positions. If we lose the support area (2008-2005), our next target is the support area (1990-1995). ​
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
3
🔥 How The Gold ETF Can Predict Bitcoin's Performance After ETFIn many of my recent BTC analyses I've been talking about my view on the ETF. My prediction was that the ETF would be a sell-the-news event and mark a local top. Thus far, my view has been correct. In this analysis I want to take a look at the Gold ETF and its effect on the short- and long-term price movement of the underlying asset Gold. My short-term view on both ETF launches is as follows: - Whales (big banks and the like) buy the rumour. Likely, they have more knowledge about the ETF launching than the retail investors. - ETF launches, whales create hype around the ETF to lure retail in. - Whales sell their assets to retail, which drives the prices down. As per Bitcoin, the correction has just started in my view. We can go much lower from this point. However, this ETF is great news in the long-term. As seen on the bottom chart, Gold went up for almost 7 years after the ETF launch. I doubt that BTC will go up for 7 years, but the statistics don't lie. An ETF is a great way to lure more traders to the market. Think about it, how many more people will buy crypto during bull-markets when it's as accessible as a stock? This ETF could very well put increasing bullish pressure on Bitcoin's price, potentially bringing the next-bull market top to unforeseen highs. A man can hope. Share your thoughts about the short- and long-term price action of BTC after the ETF.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FieryTrading
17
BITCOIN weekly roadmapGood time friends, I hope you are great. According to last week's analysis, Bitcoin reached the range of $48,000 twice and could not go beyond this range.And from this area, it started its falling movement, this fall could be predicted both technically and the news that has come for Bitcoin during the last week. Bitcoin is forming MTR in the daily time, it has broken the upward channel that we had downwards, the last bottom that I marked with a dashed line on the chart, below this range we also had a close candle. In general, I see Bitcoin as bearish, this week I could not find a safe area for selling positions so that we can take swing selling positions. But we can have buying positions in the range of (40000-41000) and (39400-39800) by getting appropriate approvals, if there is an opportunity for selling positions, I will inform you in the next analysis.
Short
by Golden_Star1994
1
15/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $48987.12 Last weeks low: $45231.94 Midpoint: $41476.76 Following such a historical week with the approval of the BTC ETF's on Wednesday 10th of January. BITCOIN reached a local high of 49K, since then price has fallen towards 41.5K (15% drop). Price action this week is hard to predict as the ETF narrative has been driving BTC and crypto for quite a while now, with this even over and price falling after the news broke we are now at a crossroads where being bullish here could easily be punished, the halving is months away and the majority of smart money have made nearly 3x gains in one year predominantly due to the ETF narrative and the selling pressure is now high as investors have made substantial gains. On the other hand we have BlackRock who just acquired $10m (11,500 BTC) and other funds looking to do the same, FOMO in these situations can play a huge part as retail investors simply won't want to take the risk and see prices fall lower before buying as they're scared prices will just leave them behind soon. ETF funds obviously want to buy cheap and they are the market makers which would indicate a want for lower prices. A 30% drop is common place in a bull market, BTC would therefore go from 49k to 34K which is nearly in line with the 33K FVG which seems the logical target to me. I think if we see that level it would be towards the end of the week/ next week.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
BTC Market Update 14th January Post the spot ETF approval, there was a notable surge in significant inflows marked by high volumes. However, a distinct trend emerged with the redemption of AMEX:GBTC , highlighting two crucial points: first, there has been selling pressure on GBTC, and second, the anticipated inflows were lower than initially expected. Weekends often witness limited liquidity, and order books are less robust, implying a potential gradual decline until further clarity emerges. While a correction in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD seems probable, especially following an uninterrupted rally, such fluctuations are deemed normal in market behavior. During the weekend, GBTC couldn't execute sales, and BTC experienced a drop from 49K to 43K within 24 hours, partly influenced by Larry Fink's positive remarks on an ETH ETF, leading to a more than 20% rise in ETHBTC. However, GBTC is expected to resume selling on Tuesday. A second downturn is anticipated when GBTC announces outflows for yesterday. Contrary to the observed $94M outflow for GBTC, it pertained to Wednesday, preceding its going live. Thursday's outflows likely reached the hundreds of millions, already sold into the market via CME futures and BITO. Authorized Participants (APs) sell futures and manage BTC on a T+1 basis. People observed a $94M outflow for GBTC, but that was actually for Wednesday, prior to it going live. The outflows for Thursday are probably in the hundreds of millions, already sold into the market via CME futures and BITO. The Authorized Participants (APs) sell futures and then handle BTC on a T+1 basis. The advisable strategy for the time being is to adopt a patient approach, observing the market without immediate action. A prudent course of action is to wait and reassess the situation.
by TheArabianWhale
🔥 Bitcoin Bulls Holding By A Thread: What's NextIn my recent Bitcoin analyses I've talked about the fact that I expected the Spot ETF announcement to be a sell-the-news event, helped by two important resistances lying at the 48k-50k area. See below for my in-depth analyses: As expected, Bitcoin has reversed from the 48k area and is currently trading at 43k-ish. The bullish trend is still not broken, so there's some hope left for the bulls. In order to fully confirm my bearish bias, I'm waiting for BTC to fall through the yellow area of support. This support has been holding since early December, so it would definitely be a long-term shift if it would break. If we will close a weekly candle below 40k, there's a decent probability that we will move towards the bottom support of the diagonal channel (see first analysis), potentially even lower. As mentioned before, this bearish move is likely the last one before the "real" bull trend starts. BTC has historically always dumped in the first months before/after the halving, so this potential dump is nothing out of the ordinary and will likely function as a spring towards new all-time highs.
Long
by FieryTrading
25
XRPUSDT to $1.22 this year?2 factors drive my analysis for why I'm forecasting XRP to hit $1.22 this year. First: XRP ETF Speculation from Blackrock. - BlackRock CEO Larry comment on the potential for an XRP ETF on Fox Business interview “I can’t talk about that!” when asked about an XRP ETF. This left investors and analysts parsing his words for hints of BlackRock's possible foray into XRP 2nd: Technical Analysis 2 sides of the coin for this, as seen by my bullish green price action arrow forecast and bearish red price action arrow forecast. However, i'm leaning more towards longs, due to fundamentals where despite volatility and FUD, the overall momentum is hopeful bullish. At the time of posting - 14Jan 4.30 SGT, XRPUSDT is on the weekly support -resist level. Previous week's candle closed bearish, however, with a long wick showing buyers strength. This week looks to be ending on a green candle. Long sell wick indicates sellers strength. Weekly is gonna close with a sideways momemtum, as market is hesistant and bith bear and bulls are looking to see each others next move. I however, expect week support to be respected, and pump up to week's resist after some consolidation, to retest March 22 week resist zone. If price retest Mar 22 resist zone and forms support on 0.748, I'm expecting XRP to push all the way to 1.22. While bullish for $1.22 target, that'll probably be pre ETH ETF, to which, a massive liquidity grab will bring XRP back to 0.5-0.8 zone.
Long
by lesnermj
Cardano ($ADA) Gains Momentum as Next Big ETF Candidate Cardano ( CRYPTOCAP:ADA ), the renowned blockchain platform, is gaining significant attention as a potential candidate for future exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. With the cryptocurrency community actively discussing the approval of altcoin-based ETFs following the green light for Bitcoin ETFs, Cardano has emerged as a front-runner in this new wave of investment products. Cardano’s Stability Attracts ETF and Investor Focus With the introduction of ETFs, an institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is anticipated. Cardano, known for its unique technological approach and solid community support, is a promising option for these investors. A recent thread by a prominent Cardano blogger, @cardano_whale, addressed to his 143,300 followers, highlights the reasons for this growing interest. Cardano’s peer-reviewed, stable, and lightweight protocol, combined with a unique blend of UTXO and PoS in its consensus mechanism, sets it apart in distinctly solving the blockchain trilemma. The protocol’s resistance to centralization, evidenced by its inclusive and transparent ADA distribution, makes it an attractive option for investors wary of manipulation. Unlike many other cryptocurrencies, founding entities control only about 10% of the CRYPTOCAP:ADA supply. Moreover, Cardano’s staking design is touted as one of the most decentralized, with many validator nodes enhancing the network’s security against potential attacks. Cryptocurrency ETFs Pave Way for Broader Adoption Cardano’s appeal is not limited to its robust security and decentralized nature. The platform’s ongoing developments in scalability and functionality position it as a rapidly evolving and feature-rich blockchain. This evolution is crucial for supporting a diverse range of decentralized applications (dApps), a sector that has seen exponential growth. The adaptability of Cardano is further enhanced by its support for multiple programming languages, which broadens its appeal to a wider developer community. The recent onboarding of hundreds of native tokens and DeFi applications underscores the ecosystem’s dynamic nature. Combining these factors and programmable ADA scarcity cements Cardano’s status as a leading dApp ecosystem with solid organic growth. The conversation around Cardano ETFs is taking place against the backdrop of an evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency investment products. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has allowed other cryptocurrencies to follow suit. Industry experts, such as Valkyrie’s co-founder Steve McClurg, have expressed optimism about the potential approval of ETFs for other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) and XRP. Cardano is already making strides in this direction, backing the Swiss-registered 21Shares Cardano ETF and participating in the OTC-traded Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) portfolio. The establishment of such ETFs could significantly enhance the accessibility and attractiveness of Cardano to a broader range of investors, particularly those from traditional finance sectors looking to diversify their portfolios with digital assets.
Long
by DEXWireNews
1