$BTC still chugging alongRSI is good to see exhaustion, strength, and other signs.
HOWEVER
Like ANY indicator, it's just a HELP & should NEVER be the basis of a trade.
Here's a perfect example.......
Looked as if weakening but CRYPTOCAP:BTC keeps going & slowly gets closer to 1st target we called some time ago.
RSI didn't break 50 & this is a HUGE win for #BTC bulls!
#Bitcoin buys still > sells, seen easier on 4Hr chart.
ETF
Bitcoin (BTC) Price to Hit $40K After Current PullbackBitcoin (BTC) price is on pace to rebound toward the $40,000 price target after the current corrections according to Wolfe Research.
The current pullback in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) might be the set-up for a bullish move according to insights shared by Wolfe Research, a renowned Markets Analytics platform. Per Wolfe Research’s thesis, the bearish correction being experienced presents a good buying opportunity.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Offers Risk-Reward Scenario
The month of November has been quite eventful for Bitcoin (BTC) seeing the premier cryptocurrency soar as high as $38,400 on November 24 as the confluence of positive fundamentals triggered the bull’s intensive buyback.
With the coin putting its strong foot forward in its frantic pace to end the month on a positive note, bearish pressure has prevented the push to keep the price above the psychologically important level of $40,000. The series of drops presents a buying opportunity that can give a good reward for those who can afford the risks.
The $40,000 immediate price level projected by Wolfe Research is obviously not too ambitious for Bitcoin to attain. The last time Bitcoin (BTC) price touched this level was 12 May 2022, and with conditions generally improving in relation to regulations and adoption, the chances for revival are high.
One underlying characteristic prevalent in the market is the sustained luster of Bitcoin’s most dogged institutional buyers. Top on this list is MicroStrategy Incorporated, the blockchain payments first that has continued to increase its BTC holdings.
While Wolfe Research’s projections are a fair estimation, more bullish predictions have been shared by other analysts in recent times.
Bitcoin ETF and Halving Sentiment
Two major trends the market is looking forward to that can drive the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is the sentiments around potential approval for a spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) product tracking the asset from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
With the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity Investments, VanEck, and Bitwise in the race to get their products approved, Bloomberg Analysts have maintained their 90% probability of securing approval for the cryptocurrency. Should this approval be secured, it will usher in institutional capital and help drive the price of Bitcoin to new highs.
The sentiments surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event are also another one that can shape the way the market embraces BTC in the coming months. Slated for April, the system reward will be slashed from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively reducing the rate of emission of the premier cryptocurrency, solidifying its deflationary status, and potentially enhancing its price growth moving forward.
Long NMR/USDT (Binance/KuCoin/OKX) SWING/HODLLong NMR/USDT (Binance/KuCoin/OKX) SWING/HODL
We discussed Numeraire fundamentally a few times on the live-stream and it is also included in our fundamental HODL portfolio. It is a very attractive and serious project, the token of which has not shown anything properly for a long time (even if it can shoot well from history).
His industry is part of Big Data, TradFi and also AI, that is, a very strong combination for the year 2024. This is a long trade and I personally take it to HODL without SL with a standard HODL position.
Market entry: $16.25
Re-Buy: $12.8
Duration: 3-6 months
Take profits:
TARGET 1 - $29.2
TARGET 2 - $39.49
TARGET 3 - $50.31
TARGET 4 - $61.68
Follow the specified Money & Risk management, or standard position on HODL.
1W chart:
Market Update - November 22, 2023
Bitcoin and crypto markets react to the Binance settlement: Bitcoin (BTC) prices and the wider crypto market saw a sudden drop on Tuesday morning after news broke that the DOJ was set to announce crypto enforcement action at a 3pm ET press conference. Following reports of the Binance settlement, BTC broke below the $37k level to as low as ~$35.8k later Tuesday evening. As of Wednesday morning, BTC is hovering in the mid FWB:36K range.
Binance will pay $4.3 billion and Changpeng Zhao steps down as CEO: On Tuesday, in a tectonic move for the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance agreed to a $4.3 billion fine to resolve federal criminal charges in the US. Now-former CEO Changpeng Zhao “CZ”, also agreed to step down and pay a $50 million fine. Richard Teng is the new CEO of Binance. In a press conference, attended by top federal regulators including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and CFTC chairman Rostin Behnam, US Attorney General Merrick Garland outlined the charges against Binance and settlement terms. The charges included sanctions violations, running an unlicensed money transmitter business, and failing to maintain an adequate anti-money laundering (AML) program.
Coindesk sold to crypto exchange Bullish: Coindesk, a leading crypto news site that first reported on the FTX balance sheet shortfall, was purchased by crypto exchange Bullish for an undisclosed all-cash amount. Coindesk was previously owned by crypto company Digital Currency Group (DCG).
SEC sues Kraken for running unregistered securities exchange: On Monday, the Securities and Exchange Committee (SEC) sued crypto exchange Kraken, alleging that it operated as an unregistered securities exchange and created a “significant risk” by commingling customer crypto deposits with its own corporate assets.
Tether freezes $225 million in coordination with DOJ: Also on Monday, it was announced that Tether, the issuer of the largest stablecoin, USDT, had frozen $225 million of USDT following a DOJ investigation into an international human trafficking ring based out of Southeast Asia.
🖼️ Topic of the Week: Cryptoart, NFTs, and the Art Industry
➡️ Read more here
Bitcoin BullishPeople seem to think I have had a negative view of Bitcoin, when actually it's quite the opposite. For one Bitcoin has been very, very kind to me. My first buy was in 2011. So first, let's get one thing straight - the desire for this to go long is there for me!
But and it's a big Caveat I have been a professional trader for over 23 years.
This side of me knows all too well what is needed for markets to move. Throwing words like BlackRock, Halving or ETF doesn't carry a lot of weight in the real world! Being sensible, for Bitcoin to be up sustainably it needs cause that creates the effect.
Over the last couple of years I have mapped out "EVERY" major swing.
Seeing the sentiment in the events I was attending as a money manager, you could see the interest - let's say the curiosity more than the intent. This was back as far as 2017, as we started to watch the transition to institutional involvement on the run up to the first major FWB:64K high.
The fact it was this obvious, showed the intent going forward.
As we had the next moves the rise to the current ATH and of course all the way back to 15k, the obvious move is a much, much larger accumulation.
Yes I have covered this as well - at the time of publishing the book, The price was at it's ST - what do we need? well a move up of course. The assumption was we would rally as high as $32,000 region.
During the rally up, Blackrock news came out and on pure HOPIUM the price rallied to $38,000; this caused retail to jump on the "Up only Bandwagon" but before you click off as it's not all rosy and bullish, take a look through the microscope.
I explained the dangers of the fake run on liquidity
What a surprise - well, maybe not...
So, keep in mind. Cause and effect - the cause = giant accumulation, the effect equals up. But again, this does not mean up in a straight line. I am being honest and realistic here guys. These moves do not effect me, I sold out at the high and happy to buy confirmation not hype.
Take a look at the COT data..
On the left is Asset Managers and they are buying long term positions. NICE! Up, only!
On the right we have Leveraged Funds - these guys in essence make money trading against retail. (more to this than that). The issue I have is these guys are net short, which means as retail is soaking up the price on low volume, larger players are willing to sell to them.
Here's a couple of snapshots.
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
the monthly pullback is only .382 (swing high to low)
This has caused CVD divergence.
Drop down back to the daily.
More points for you to think about.
So I will ask again, what exactly is the Bullish cause here? Blackrock throwing $15Trillion to make all retail traders rich isn't the correct answer. Blackrock will not be retail bag holders.
Here's some 'real info' from Blackrock's own site.
$3 Trillion covering all ETF's since 1993 - another point, there are currently over 1,400 ETF's.
If you don't think we need a pullback, if you think it's just going to grind up on low volume, or if you think Blackrock will make you rich. There's a few home truths here.
Know what's coming and you can profit from it as well as manage expectations and emotions.
This book got published in May this year.
The blueprint is there! it's clear and setup nicely.
Would I short it, no I never short Bitcoin only sell my long positions. Would I buy more here, NOPE.
Take it easy guys and just apply a little sense.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Double up your stack by May 2024 with $coinOn high time frame chart standards, NASDAQ:COIN Coinbase is a fresh chart. In the past week we have entered the cloud and an edge to edge trade would put price from $99 to double that at $200. Time frame is roughly 5 months. With the majority of the spot etfs going to go through Coinbase, this, in my opinion, is a great play. Spot ETFs for Bitcoin will likely be approved by January 10th, 2024.
Is Bitcoin broken? Why isn't it going up? A lot of folks are scratching their heads, wondering why Bitcoin isn't taking off like a rocket 🚀. Some even reckon it needs to take a nosedive before we see any action. But what's the deal with Bitcoin? Why does it seem like we're just going sideways? Let me break down a few things that, in my humble opinion, are affecting Bitcoin's price and what I think might go down.
**1️⃣ Miners Offloading Bitcoin**
Let's talk about mining. Miners are the backbone of the Bitcoin network. They validate transactions and keep the blockchain secure. But here's the kicker: Bitcoin's got this thing called "halving," where the rewards miners get are cut in half. In a few months, the cost of mining will double as the block reward drops from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. So, miners are stocking up to cover their costs after the halving. Most of this selling happens on the down-low to avoid messing with the price, hence the sideways action.
**2️⃣ Big Picture Stuff**
Bitcoin was born in the ashes of the 2008 banking crisis, where Quantitative Easing (QE) was the name of the game, meaning cheap money galore. But now, we're in a period of Quantitative Tightening. Interest rates are sky-high, making money expensive. People are holding onto their cash, expecting a possible recession down the line. Geopolitical tensions and global shake-ups don't help either.
**3️⃣ It's All About the Cycles**
Take a look at the Bitcoin price chart, and you'll see cycles every four years. Bull run after the halving, hitting a peak, then dipping into bear territory. Rinse and repeat. BTC hasn't broken its all-time high before the next halving so far, and I don't see why it would now.
✅ So, what's the outlook, you ask?
📍 We're probably in for more sideways action, at least until we get close to the halving. Here's what's on my radar:
**1️⃣ BlackRock's ETF:** They wouldn't bother filing for an ETF if they didn't think it'd get the green light. The expected decision date is March 30th, 2024, right before the next BTC halving.
**2️⃣ Scarcity on Exchanges:** Unlike past halvings, there's hardly any BTC sitting on exchanges. This scarcity could lead to some wild price swings.
**3️⃣ The Halving:** As Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." After the halving, production costs double, so BTC's gotta climb to catch up. Miners will try to hold onto their BTC to turn a profit, making it even scarcer.
**4️⃣ End of QT:** When people stop spending, and the economy tanks, we'll likely see a shift from Quantitative Tightening (QT) back to Quantitative Easing (QE). That's a good sign for BTC and investment in general.
❓ When's all this gonna happen? My gut says not much until the second half of 2024, but if those four factors line up nicely, we might get a Bitcoin rally reminiscent of 2017, rolling into 2025. 🚀
🎙️Got thoughts? Share 'em in the comments and hit that like button if you found this overview useful. Don't forget to follow for more ideas.
Market Update - November 10 2023
Bitcoin rises above $37k as ETF momentum continues: Bitcoin rose throughout the week before settling around the $37k range by Friday. The price of BTC was largely in consolidation mode early in the week, which shifted to an upward trajectory after reports surfaced that an eight-day window had opened for the SEC to approve spot bitcoin ETF applications. BTC gained about 7% over the last seven days and is now up more than 25% over the past month.
Ether launches past $2,000 and BlackRock begins spot ether ETF process: After lagging behind BTC and surging altcoins, ether (ETH) saw renewed strength this week rallying above $2,000. Further bolstering ETH, BlackRock registered an iShares Ethereum Trust in Delaware, which is an early step in the application process for a spot ether ETF.
Solana continues to rise gaining ~30%, and Ripple signs deals with Georgia and Dubai: Solana (SOL) built on recent gains this week, rallying another ~30% and topping $50 a token by Friday. SOL is now up over 100% over the past three months. XRP also had a positive week benefiting from recently announced Ripple partnerships with Georgia and Dubai. XRP is up ~30% over the past month, and has gained over 50% in the past six months.
Crypto fund inflows surge over past six weeks: CoinShares data showed $767 million of inflows to crypto funds over the past six weeks, recording the most cash injected since 2021’s bull run. The $767 million in inflows surpassed 2022’s total inflows of $736 million.
Bankruptcy judge approves Celsius reorganization plan: Defunct crypto lender Celsius had its reorganization plan approved by a Bankruptcy Judge on Thursday. The plan would establish a new entity, NewCo, backed by seed funding of $450 million. The new entity aims to be publicly listed and would be focused on Bitcoin mining and staking. The plan would also require sign off from the SEC. Repayments to creditors could start as soon as early 2024.
🧙Topic of the Week: Origins of Bitcoin
🫱 Read more here
The World of ETFsIn the vast landscape of investments, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) stand as a unique bridge, merging the best of both stocks and mutual funds. While traditional managed funds pool investors' money into assets managed by professionals, ETFs introduce a compelling twist, allowing for the flexibility of stock trading.
Unlike managed funds, ETFs are akin to stocks, enabling investors to buy and sell them at any time during market hours . This accessibility aligns ETFs more closely with the dynamic nature of stocks, catering to the on-demand needs of modern investors.
However, just like any investment, ETFs come with their nuances and risks. Diversification, often touted as an investment safety net, does mitigate some risks but can't fully shield against market volatility.
Different ETFs carry varying levels of risk, making understanding these distinctions vital before investing. Additionally, the past performance of ETFs isn't always a reliable indicator of future results, underlining the importance of comprehensive research and sound decision-making.
Bitcoin ETFs: The Gateway to Crypto Investments
In recent years, the advent of Bitcoin ETFs has added an intriguing chapter to the investment narrative. These financial instruments enable investors to engage with Bitcoin's price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin ETFs, traded on conventional stock exchanges, provide an accessible avenue for traditional investors to venture into the crypto sphere.
Within the realm of Bitcoin ETFs, there are two primary types: spot and futures-based ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer direct exposure to Bitcoin's real-time market price, involving the actual cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, futures-based ETFs utilize Bitcoin futures contracts, enabling speculation on the asset's future price without owning the underlying asset.
The interest in Bitcoin ETFs can be attributed to several factors. First and foremost, they offer unparalleled ease of access. Trading on mainstream stock exchanges simplifies the process, allowing investors to leverage existing brokerage accounts without delving into the complexities of crypto exchanges.
Moreover, the regulatory oversight accompanying ETFs adds a layer of security, easing concerns related to fraud and market manipulation prevalent in unregulated crypto markets.
Additionally, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs signifies a significant shift, indicating the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems.
While the United States has yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, several Bitcoin futures-linked ETFs have gained regulatory approval , broadening investment horizons.
Beyond Bitcoin: Exploring the Crypto ETF Spectrum
While Bitcoin has seized the spotlight, the crypto ETF landscape is not confined to it alone. Outside the United States, various Cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) encompass a spectrum of digital assets beyond Bitcoin. These offerings enable diversification within the digital asset space, catering to investors keen on exploring a range of cryptocurrencies.
In the United States, ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies like Ether also exist, albeit in the futures-related domain. Although spot-based crypto ETFs are yet to make their debut, the evolving regulatory landscape and market demand may pave the way for these in the future.
As the financial world continues its digital transformation, understanding ETFs and their crypto counterparts becomes paramount. By bridging the gap between traditional stocks and the dynamic crypto sphere, ETFs empower investors with newfound opportunities and avenues for portfolio growth.
Stay tuned for the evolving of crypto ETFs, where the world of investments meets the future of finance.
06/11/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $36088.7
Last weeks low: $35064.8
Midpoint: $34040.8
Last week price consolidated after it's considerable rally the week before, we have a mini range between 34k as support and 36k as resistance. As price has stagnated profits have trickled down the crypto ladder towards strong altcoins such as SOLANA, and more recently lower cap plays which is usually a sign that the cycle is coming to an end and that money will return to BTC, however it is difficult to say at this current moment in time if price will continue to push upwards or will we get a correction.
General market sentiment seems to point towards the bull market has returned and it's up only from here. I am not so sure that is the case but the fact that we have been consolidating at this level for quite some time now without a pullback does give further evidence for that.
For now I think it would be very risky, the time to be HTF bearish was all of last year. To enter shorts at this stage without solid confirmation of weakness, instead taking profits going into HTF resistance levels would make the most sense. As for the side-lined traders this is were FOMO is your biggest enemy, yes the market looks strong right now and there hasn't been any pullbacks to jump on. I'm keeping a close eye over the week for BTC dominance against altcoins, and news on the ETF's.
Bitcoin - Major Resistance Zones to trade - CryptocurrencyMajor Levels To Watch
Support Zone : $31,500-$32,00
Major Resistance to break: $35,300
Resistance 2: $39,987
Target 1: $44,000
Resistance 3: $53,880
Currently trading at a large margin above the Ichimoku Cloud.
ETF news could Easily Drive this into the first resistance zone.
Right now we are seeing lower-than-expected volume for this range as many traders are still sidelined waiting for the official ETF launch.
Remember most of the crypto market is correlated to bitcoin in some manner. Pay attention to these levels if you are trading alt coins.
BTC - LongI like how this looks, a lot. I think 30k comes soon. I believe we just broke out of diagonal resistance and retested it. The performance of btc vs equities has been impressive, i also anticipate the grayscale lawsuit to be a big catalyst over the next week. SEC has until Oct 13th to respond to the lawsuit and its looking good for grayscale imo. If grayscale succeeds it'll be a lead indicator on ETF approval.
XRP - Ripple - WEF backed ProjectFirst major confluence level
$.75 Breakout target / Entry
$.856 Confirmation of breakout Extension
Target 1: $1.20
Target 2: $1.46
Not a huge fan of XRP, but I will concede the sheer amount of government connections the team has is definitely something to look into, its feverish fan base will no doubt pump it to new heights this bull run.
It hasn't died yet and to me that is indicative of the fact it will continue to survive and thirive.
Launched in 2021, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is an open-source, permissionless and decentralized technology. Benefits of the XRP Ledger include its low-cost ($0.0002 to transact), speed (settling transactions in 3-5 seconds), scalability (1,500 transactions per second) and inherently green attributes (carbon-neutral and energy-efficient). The XRP Ledger also features the first decentralized exchange (DEX) and custom tokenization capabilities built into the protocol. Since 2012, the XRP Ledger has been operating reliably, having closed 70 million ledgers.
Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, the XRPL uses a unique Federated Consensus mechanism as its method of validating transactions. Transactions are confirmed on the XRPL through a consensus protocol, in which designated independent servers called validators come to an agreement on the order and outcome of XRP transactions. All servers in the network process each transaction according to the same rules, and any transaction that follows the protocol is confirmed right away. All transactions are public and transparent, and anyone can operate a validator. There are currently over 150 validators on the ledger, operated by universities, exchanges, businesses, and individuals around the world.
Through the Federated Consensus mechanism, all verified transactions can be processed without a single point of failure as no single participant makes a decision independently.
S&P 500: Bulls at the Helm 📈🐂The S&P 500 has risen significantly since yesterday and has broken through resistance at 4294. We must now assume that the low of wave in magenta was already established a few days ago, on October 27th. Going forward, we can expect a continuation of the rally that has now begun, which should also continue above the resistance at 4634 in the course of the magenta wave .
The Complex RealitiesMany people seem to think this is Bullish. Forgetting the fact (obviously) that it's still 50% from it's $69,000 High.
Classic case of retail only seeing what retail want to see and are blinded by every other opinion, including backed by sound logic.
When I said all that time ago - let's go long.
There was method to the madness, I had already been personally long several years. I explained why as a money manager it was now a thing of interest.
Fast foreword a little - the re-accumulation phase. This was the most interesting call of all for me.
You see, what I knew would be happening here was the bigger players had been entering and would use techniques to both enter and exit on their own terms. This was simply stunning to watch play out in front of your own eyes.
As we rallied away from the re-accumulation zone - retail got greedy and majority of social media was calling for 100k. Instead we had a very distinct pattern start.
I tried to warn people, but 100k had their eyes glazed over!
All you need to ask yourself, is who's selling. No I don't mean then. I mean now.
Here's the hint.
As we rallied from that 28k, it was pig ugly, you couldn't mask that move up with digital lipstick.
I explained why it would be capped. It needed to go down 3-4 and it would go up 4-5 but it already had it's name marked just above the old All Time High.
So we get up to a new high - yet again, calls for 100k came long and loud, 250k, a million dollars. Then it was apparent, people just threw numbers out in the air, rainbow stock to flow models and the reality was, they had less than half a clue!
Plan A, B, C and D was all "long only" again not listening to rational or logic.
As we dropped down "As I said we would" the next obvious move was the re-distribution. I explained how this would play out. No surprise, it did!
We hit $15,000 a long way from the $135,000 worse case your local influencers were shouting for.
We now start a long-term accumulation.
People with the memory of a fish, think that this move up will clear their red bags. Need I remind you we are still 50% of the ATH.
What can we see out on the monthly?
Look again
Maybe the monthly is too much to wait for?
Here's the weekly view.
The angle, the volume, the overbought nature...
None of these scream - Bullish intent. Retail pumps the price by a couple of thousand dollars and it's again cries for the moon. The Blackrock approval of it's ETF pumped the price artificially and Institutional players are taking advantage. The accumulation phase, is happening, but it is not done - yet.
Before you jump into the comments with "Long Only" - back it up with logic, let's create the great debate.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Blackrock (NYSE: BLK) Spurring The ETF AdoptionIt’s been reported that BlackRock has engaged in preliminary discussions with Jane Street, Virtu Financial, Jump Trading, and Hudson River Trading, with regards to their potential involvement as market makers for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Amid the crypto crackdown, a BTC ETF, if approved, would open a new pathway for U.S.-based firms to get a piece of the crypto action – in a way that plays to their conventional strengths.
Some of the world's largest market-making firms are in the mix to potentially provide liquidity for BlackRock's eagerly awaited bitcoin ETF if regulators approve the product, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
Trading giants Jane Street, Virtu Financial, Jump Trading and Hudson River Trading have held talks with BlackRock about a market-making role, according to a BlackRock slide deck reviewed by the person familiar with the matter.
Assuming the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves some or all of the dozen or so applications for bitcoin ETFs (including the one from BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager), that would open a new pathway for U.S.-based firms to get a piece of the action in crypto – in a way that plays to their conventional strengths. Being a market-maker for ETFs, which trade on exchanges just like stocks, requires a level of sophistication and automation that only a relatively few companies can achieve.
Market makers are vital to ETFs. They are responsible for creating and redeeming new shares of an ETF, a role designed to keep its price tethered to the price implied by the value of the ETF's holdings.
One of the best examples of why such a create-and-redeem structure is important actually comes from crypto. Grayscale Investments offers a product called the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) whose price has over the past few years wandered dramatically far away from the billions of dollars worth of bitcoin (BTC) that it owns.
Price Momentum
BLK is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
Market Update - October 27th
Bitcoin hits $35k amid more encouraging ETF news: BTC soared from ~$30k USD to ~$35k earlier in the week, before settling around $34k USD by Friday. Spurring the price action, news began circulating on Monday that BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, with the ticker IBTC, was listed with the DTCC, leading to speculation that the ETF was nearing approval.
Bitcoin open interest on CME hits all-time highs: Open interest for bitcoin derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit 100,000 BTC (~$3.4 billion USD). The trend may reflect growing interest in bitcoin from institutional investors as the conversation around a coming spot bitcoin ETF continues to heat up.
SEC directed to review Grayscale’s spot bitcoin ETF application: A US federal court issued a mandate directing the SEC to review Grayscale's application for a spot bitcoin ETF. Grayscale submitted a registration statement to the SEC on October 19, stating its intention to list shares of its spot bitcoin ETF on the New York Stock Exchange Arca under the ticker GBTC.
Q3 GDP beats estimates, and treasury yields continue to rise: Third-quarter US GDP showed robust growth of 4.9% on an annual basis, surpassing estimates of 4.7%. Treasury yields continued to rise, putting additional pressure on equities. Yields on the 10-year treasury surpassed 5% on Monday, hitting its highest level in over a decade, but has since dipped to the 4.8% range.
🤝Topic of the Week: Basic Trading Order Types
➡️ Read more here
BlackRock's Big MoveIn a week marked by substantial financial developments, none have captivated the attention of investors quite like the unfolding saga of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF. The focus began to shift back onto the ETF topic after the iShares Bitcoin Trust was officially listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a crucial component of the U.S. market infrastructure. Adding to this momentum, BlackRock has made amendments to its ETF filing to indicate the possibility of seeding the ETF this month.
While these steps do not guarantee approval, they are widely seen as bolstering confidence in an eventual SEC endorsement. In a sense, they mark a continuation of the approval process. However, it's crucial to temper expectations, as it's unlikely that the SEC will make a quick decision. Following its historical approach during the approval process for BTC/ETH Futures ETFs, the SEC is expected to grant approval to multiple fund managers simultaneously. Given this context, a decision might be deferred until early next year, as the SEC awaits other applications to meet the criteria reportedly satisfied by BlackRock. Despite this uncertainty, BlackRock's proactive steps seem designed to assert its 'first-mover' advantage in the market, regardless of whether the SEC eventually confers it.
In a separate yet related development, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals has formally closed the Grayscale case, requiring the SEC to re-evaluate Grayscale's application to convert GBTC to a spot ETF. Depending on the SEC's decision, this could either pave the way for more accessible cryptocurrency investment products or introduce additional regulatory hurdles. To underscore the market sentiment, Bitcoin's recent surge past the 35k mark indicates that the market is increasingly factoring in the likelihood of an ETF approval, with the timing of such an event being the only remaining question.
In conclusion, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF could not only be a financial game-changer but also a pivotal moment for the asset class as a whole. By offering a straightforward and regulated path for investors, it promises to attract a surge of capital particularly from the institutional sector that could catalyze the next bull market. As cryptocurrencies gain further legitimacy, the SEC's eventual endorsement would catapult cryptocurrencies from the periphery right into the core of the financial world.