ETF
Story repeats itself- i have to post this chart.
- it seems some peoples didn't get what i posted in one of my older chart.
- i will post this chart in comments.
- Remember this is not a price prediction.
- Everything is just about comparing the past and the present.
- in 2018-2019 BTC was fluctuating in bearmarket with 4 Digits.
- Now BTC is fluctuating in bearmarket with 5 Digits.
- We are evolving in a different trend.
- All in graphic and hope you get the idea.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Market Update - December 1 2023
Bitcoin climbs as SEC speeds up spot bitcoin ETF review process: Bitcoin (BTC) continued to grind higher this week, reaching a new yearly high of over $38.5k, as market participants continued accumulating BTC ahead of the potential ETF approvals at the start of next year. The SEC announced it would open the comment period for its review of applications submitted by asset manager Franklin Templeton and crypto-native firm Hashdex, leading to speculation that the regulator may be lining up “every applicant up for potential approval by the Jan 10, 2024 deadline.” Investors continued to accumulate BTC, including an unidentified whale that has been gaining attention after purchasing ~12k BTC, worth more than $450 million, over the past month. Microstrategy also announced that it bought another ~$600 million worth of BTC in November, bringing its total holdings to 174,530 BTC.
Federal Reserve Governors appear to diverge on interest rate hikes ahead of December meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to have its last meeting of the year on December 13, with the market widely expecting rates to remain unchanged. On Tuesday, two separate speeches from Federal Reserve governors differed on how they see the path forward on inflation and interest rates. Fed governor Michelle Bowman suggested that more rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation back down to 2%, and notably hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller appeared to ease his stance, suggesting that more hikes are not needed.
USTC and LUNC skyrocket amid Binance perps listing and airdrop news: Following rumors that there may be a Terra Classic USD (USTC) revamp backed by bitcoin and news that Binance would be a USTC perpetuals listing, USTC and LUNC unexpectedly gained investor attention this week.
FTX estate given approval to sell off trust assets: The FTX bankruptcy reached a key milestone this week as the estate was granted approval to sell its trust assets worth roughly $873 million at current prices. The added supply from these sell orders could cap price action for some of the assets. Notably, Solana (SOL) continued its rally to ~$60 despite FTX rumored to be selling SOL from its estate in early November.
🏛️ Topic of the Week: Interest Rates
➡️ Read more here
$ETH lowest amount of shorts & trying to climb higherCRYPTOCAP:ETH on the other hand has the LOWEST amount of shorts in a LONG TIME!!!
Daily it looks like $BTC. At least in the sense that it wants to push a little bit higher.
#ETH targets are in the 2500-2600 & 3k area.
IF #ethereum can break above the Major Resistance right above, 2300ish area, it's off to the races!!
#crypto
$BTC still range bound BUT shorts begin to pileGOOD MORNING!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is maintaining its trend very nicely.
The RSI is still range bound.
1Hr #BTC does not show anything out of the ordinary.
What is out of the ordinary are the increase in shorts lately.
HOWEVER.......
They're nowhere near the nose bleed levels from earlier in the year and at the end of last year.
#Bitcoin moving higher could very well FORCE a nice pump.
#crypto
$BTC slow climb to 40k areaGOOD MORNING!
MIL:BTC is slowly creeping up towards the very important 40k level.
#BTC volume is satisfactory on buys vs sells.
#Bitcoin has been trending UP the red moving avg since Oct 16.
IMO, keep eyes on RSI. Will have an idea by which side ends up breaking out.
The money flow is still ok, for now.
40k area is very important. There will likely be some sort of pullback there.
🔥 Bitcoin Fractal Predicts MASSIVE Pump 🚨Over the last few week's I've been continuously posting bullish analyses with a 2023 target of 40,000$. However, this fractal might suggest that we can reach even higher than that, maybe even 50,000$?
The fractal is simple, a low-volatility bullish channel (higher-highs and higher-lows) after a big pump. The previous two times that this has happened, a big pump of around 50% occurred. Only thing that we're waiting for now is the definitive bullish breakout.
Keep in mind that the market often rhymes. With a bullish stock market and ETF's on the horizon, we could be seeing a big pump in the near future.
Share your thoughts in the comments 🙏
$BTC still chugging alongRSI is good to see exhaustion, strength, and other signs.
HOWEVER
Like ANY indicator, it's just a HELP & should NEVER be the basis of a trade.
Here's a perfect example.......
Looked as if weakening but CRYPTOCAP:BTC keeps going & slowly gets closer to 1st target we called some time ago.
RSI didn't break 50 & this is a HUGE win for #BTC bulls!
#Bitcoin buys still > sells, seen easier on 4Hr chart.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price to Hit $40K After Current PullbackBitcoin (BTC) price is on pace to rebound toward the $40,000 price target after the current corrections according to Wolfe Research.
The current pullback in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) might be the set-up for a bullish move according to insights shared by Wolfe Research, a renowned Markets Analytics platform. Per Wolfe Research’s thesis, the bearish correction being experienced presents a good buying opportunity.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Offers Risk-Reward Scenario
The month of November has been quite eventful for Bitcoin (BTC) seeing the premier cryptocurrency soar as high as $38,400 on November 24 as the confluence of positive fundamentals triggered the bull’s intensive buyback.
With the coin putting its strong foot forward in its frantic pace to end the month on a positive note, bearish pressure has prevented the push to keep the price above the psychologically important level of $40,000. The series of drops presents a buying opportunity that can give a good reward for those who can afford the risks.
The $40,000 immediate price level projected by Wolfe Research is obviously not too ambitious for Bitcoin to attain. The last time Bitcoin (BTC) price touched this level was 12 May 2022, and with conditions generally improving in relation to regulations and adoption, the chances for revival are high.
One underlying characteristic prevalent in the market is the sustained luster of Bitcoin’s most dogged institutional buyers. Top on this list is MicroStrategy Incorporated, the blockchain payments first that has continued to increase its BTC holdings.
While Wolfe Research’s projections are a fair estimation, more bullish predictions have been shared by other analysts in recent times.
Bitcoin ETF and Halving Sentiment
Two major trends the market is looking forward to that can drive the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is the sentiments around potential approval for a spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) product tracking the asset from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
With the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity Investments, VanEck, and Bitwise in the race to get their products approved, Bloomberg Analysts have maintained their 90% probability of securing approval for the cryptocurrency. Should this approval be secured, it will usher in institutional capital and help drive the price of Bitcoin to new highs.
The sentiments surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event are also another one that can shape the way the market embraces BTC in the coming months. Slated for April, the system reward will be slashed from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively reducing the rate of emission of the premier cryptocurrency, solidifying its deflationary status, and potentially enhancing its price growth moving forward.
Long NMR/USDT (Binance/KuCoin/OKX) SWING/HODLLong NMR/USDT (Binance/KuCoin/OKX) SWING/HODL
We discussed Numeraire fundamentally a few times on the live-stream and it is also included in our fundamental HODL portfolio. It is a very attractive and serious project, the token of which has not shown anything properly for a long time (even if it can shoot well from history).
His industry is part of Big Data, TradFi and also AI, that is, a very strong combination for the year 2024. This is a long trade and I personally take it to HODL without SL with a standard HODL position.
Market entry: $16.25
Re-Buy: $12.8
Duration: 3-6 months
Take profits:
TARGET 1 - $29.2
TARGET 2 - $39.49
TARGET 3 - $50.31
TARGET 4 - $61.68
Follow the specified Money & Risk management, or standard position on HODL.
1W chart:
Market Update - November 22, 2023
Bitcoin and crypto markets react to the Binance settlement: Bitcoin (BTC) prices and the wider crypto market saw a sudden drop on Tuesday morning after news broke that the DOJ was set to announce crypto enforcement action at a 3pm ET press conference. Following reports of the Binance settlement, BTC broke below the $37k level to as low as ~$35.8k later Tuesday evening. As of Wednesday morning, BTC is hovering in the mid FWB:36K range.
Binance will pay $4.3 billion and Changpeng Zhao steps down as CEO: On Tuesday, in a tectonic move for the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance agreed to a $4.3 billion fine to resolve federal criminal charges in the US. Now-former CEO Changpeng Zhao “CZ”, also agreed to step down and pay a $50 million fine. Richard Teng is the new CEO of Binance. In a press conference, attended by top federal regulators including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and CFTC chairman Rostin Behnam, US Attorney General Merrick Garland outlined the charges against Binance and settlement terms. The charges included sanctions violations, running an unlicensed money transmitter business, and failing to maintain an adequate anti-money laundering (AML) program.
Coindesk sold to crypto exchange Bullish: Coindesk, a leading crypto news site that first reported on the FTX balance sheet shortfall, was purchased by crypto exchange Bullish for an undisclosed all-cash amount. Coindesk was previously owned by crypto company Digital Currency Group (DCG).
SEC sues Kraken for running unregistered securities exchange: On Monday, the Securities and Exchange Committee (SEC) sued crypto exchange Kraken, alleging that it operated as an unregistered securities exchange and created a “significant risk” by commingling customer crypto deposits with its own corporate assets.
Tether freezes $225 million in coordination with DOJ: Also on Monday, it was announced that Tether, the issuer of the largest stablecoin, USDT, had frozen $225 million of USDT following a DOJ investigation into an international human trafficking ring based out of Southeast Asia.
🖼️ Topic of the Week: Cryptoart, NFTs, and the Art Industry
➡️ Read more here
Bitcoin BullishPeople seem to think I have had a negative view of Bitcoin, when actually it's quite the opposite. For one Bitcoin has been very, very kind to me. My first buy was in 2011. So first, let's get one thing straight - the desire for this to go long is there for me!
But and it's a big Caveat I have been a professional trader for over 23 years.
This side of me knows all too well what is needed for markets to move. Throwing words like BlackRock, Halving or ETF doesn't carry a lot of weight in the real world! Being sensible, for Bitcoin to be up sustainably it needs cause that creates the effect.
Over the last couple of years I have mapped out "EVERY" major swing.
Seeing the sentiment in the events I was attending as a money manager, you could see the interest - let's say the curiosity more than the intent. This was back as far as 2017, as we started to watch the transition to institutional involvement on the run up to the first major FWB:64K high.
The fact it was this obvious, showed the intent going forward.
As we had the next moves the rise to the current ATH and of course all the way back to 15k, the obvious move is a much, much larger accumulation.
Yes I have covered this as well - at the time of publishing the book, The price was at it's ST - what do we need? well a move up of course. The assumption was we would rally as high as $32,000 region.
During the rally up, Blackrock news came out and on pure HOPIUM the price rallied to $38,000; this caused retail to jump on the "Up only Bandwagon" but before you click off as it's not all rosy and bullish, take a look through the microscope.
I explained the dangers of the fake run on liquidity
What a surprise - well, maybe not...
So, keep in mind. Cause and effect - the cause = giant accumulation, the effect equals up. But again, this does not mean up in a straight line. I am being honest and realistic here guys. These moves do not effect me, I sold out at the high and happy to buy confirmation not hype.
Take a look at the COT data..
On the left is Asset Managers and they are buying long term positions. NICE! Up, only!
On the right we have Leveraged Funds - these guys in essence make money trading against retail. (more to this than that). The issue I have is these guys are net short, which means as retail is soaking up the price on low volume, larger players are willing to sell to them.
Here's a couple of snapshots.
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
the monthly pullback is only .382 (swing high to low)
This has caused CVD divergence.
Drop down back to the daily.
More points for you to think about.
So I will ask again, what exactly is the Bullish cause here? Blackrock throwing $15Trillion to make all retail traders rich isn't the correct answer. Blackrock will not be retail bag holders.
Here's some 'real info' from Blackrock's own site.
$3 Trillion covering all ETF's since 1993 - another point, there are currently over 1,400 ETF's.
If you don't think we need a pullback, if you think it's just going to grind up on low volume, or if you think Blackrock will make you rich. There's a few home truths here.
Know what's coming and you can profit from it as well as manage expectations and emotions.
This book got published in May this year.
The blueprint is there! it's clear and setup nicely.
Would I short it, no I never short Bitcoin only sell my long positions. Would I buy more here, NOPE.
Take it easy guys and just apply a little sense.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Double up your stack by May 2024 with $coinOn high time frame chart standards, NASDAQ:COIN Coinbase is a fresh chart. In the past week we have entered the cloud and an edge to edge trade would put price from $99 to double that at $200. Time frame is roughly 5 months. With the majority of the spot etfs going to go through Coinbase, this, in my opinion, is a great play. Spot ETFs for Bitcoin will likely be approved by January 10th, 2024.
Is Bitcoin broken? Why isn't it going up? A lot of folks are scratching their heads, wondering why Bitcoin isn't taking off like a rocket 🚀. Some even reckon it needs to take a nosedive before we see any action. But what's the deal with Bitcoin? Why does it seem like we're just going sideways? Let me break down a few things that, in my humble opinion, are affecting Bitcoin's price and what I think might go down.
**1️⃣ Miners Offloading Bitcoin**
Let's talk about mining. Miners are the backbone of the Bitcoin network. They validate transactions and keep the blockchain secure. But here's the kicker: Bitcoin's got this thing called "halving," where the rewards miners get are cut in half. In a few months, the cost of mining will double as the block reward drops from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. So, miners are stocking up to cover their costs after the halving. Most of this selling happens on the down-low to avoid messing with the price, hence the sideways action.
**2️⃣ Big Picture Stuff**
Bitcoin was born in the ashes of the 2008 banking crisis, where Quantitative Easing (QE) was the name of the game, meaning cheap money galore. But now, we're in a period of Quantitative Tightening. Interest rates are sky-high, making money expensive. People are holding onto their cash, expecting a possible recession down the line. Geopolitical tensions and global shake-ups don't help either.
**3️⃣ It's All About the Cycles**
Take a look at the Bitcoin price chart, and you'll see cycles every four years. Bull run after the halving, hitting a peak, then dipping into bear territory. Rinse and repeat. BTC hasn't broken its all-time high before the next halving so far, and I don't see why it would now.
✅ So, what's the outlook, you ask?
📍 We're probably in for more sideways action, at least until we get close to the halving. Here's what's on my radar:
**1️⃣ BlackRock's ETF:** They wouldn't bother filing for an ETF if they didn't think it'd get the green light. The expected decision date is March 30th, 2024, right before the next BTC halving.
**2️⃣ Scarcity on Exchanges:** Unlike past halvings, there's hardly any BTC sitting on exchanges. This scarcity could lead to some wild price swings.
**3️⃣ The Halving:** As Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." After the halving, production costs double, so BTC's gotta climb to catch up. Miners will try to hold onto their BTC to turn a profit, making it even scarcer.
**4️⃣ End of QT:** When people stop spending, and the economy tanks, we'll likely see a shift from Quantitative Tightening (QT) back to Quantitative Easing (QE). That's a good sign for BTC and investment in general.
❓ When's all this gonna happen? My gut says not much until the second half of 2024, but if those four factors line up nicely, we might get a Bitcoin rally reminiscent of 2017, rolling into 2025. 🚀
🎙️Got thoughts? Share 'em in the comments and hit that like button if you found this overview useful. Don't forget to follow for more ideas.
Market Update - November 10 2023
Bitcoin rises above $37k as ETF momentum continues: Bitcoin rose throughout the week before settling around the $37k range by Friday. The price of BTC was largely in consolidation mode early in the week, which shifted to an upward trajectory after reports surfaced that an eight-day window had opened for the SEC to approve spot bitcoin ETF applications. BTC gained about 7% over the last seven days and is now up more than 25% over the past month.
Ether launches past $2,000 and BlackRock begins spot ether ETF process: After lagging behind BTC and surging altcoins, ether (ETH) saw renewed strength this week rallying above $2,000. Further bolstering ETH, BlackRock registered an iShares Ethereum Trust in Delaware, which is an early step in the application process for a spot ether ETF.
Solana continues to rise gaining ~30%, and Ripple signs deals with Georgia and Dubai: Solana (SOL) built on recent gains this week, rallying another ~30% and topping $50 a token by Friday. SOL is now up over 100% over the past three months. XRP also had a positive week benefiting from recently announced Ripple partnerships with Georgia and Dubai. XRP is up ~30% over the past month, and has gained over 50% in the past six months.
Crypto fund inflows surge over past six weeks: CoinShares data showed $767 million of inflows to crypto funds over the past six weeks, recording the most cash injected since 2021’s bull run. The $767 million in inflows surpassed 2022’s total inflows of $736 million.
Bankruptcy judge approves Celsius reorganization plan: Defunct crypto lender Celsius had its reorganization plan approved by a Bankruptcy Judge on Thursday. The plan would establish a new entity, NewCo, backed by seed funding of $450 million. The new entity aims to be publicly listed and would be focused on Bitcoin mining and staking. The plan would also require sign off from the SEC. Repayments to creditors could start as soon as early 2024.
🧙Topic of the Week: Origins of Bitcoin
🫱 Read more here
The World of ETFsIn the vast landscape of investments, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) stand as a unique bridge, merging the best of both stocks and mutual funds. While traditional managed funds pool investors' money into assets managed by professionals, ETFs introduce a compelling twist, allowing for the flexibility of stock trading.
Unlike managed funds, ETFs are akin to stocks, enabling investors to buy and sell them at any time during market hours . This accessibility aligns ETFs more closely with the dynamic nature of stocks, catering to the on-demand needs of modern investors.
However, just like any investment, ETFs come with their nuances and risks. Diversification, often touted as an investment safety net, does mitigate some risks but can't fully shield against market volatility.
Different ETFs carry varying levels of risk, making understanding these distinctions vital before investing. Additionally, the past performance of ETFs isn't always a reliable indicator of future results, underlining the importance of comprehensive research and sound decision-making.
Bitcoin ETFs: The Gateway to Crypto Investments
In recent years, the advent of Bitcoin ETFs has added an intriguing chapter to the investment narrative. These financial instruments enable investors to engage with Bitcoin's price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin ETFs, traded on conventional stock exchanges, provide an accessible avenue for traditional investors to venture into the crypto sphere.
Within the realm of Bitcoin ETFs, there are two primary types: spot and futures-based ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer direct exposure to Bitcoin's real-time market price, involving the actual cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, futures-based ETFs utilize Bitcoin futures contracts, enabling speculation on the asset's future price without owning the underlying asset.
The interest in Bitcoin ETFs can be attributed to several factors. First and foremost, they offer unparalleled ease of access. Trading on mainstream stock exchanges simplifies the process, allowing investors to leverage existing brokerage accounts without delving into the complexities of crypto exchanges.
Moreover, the regulatory oversight accompanying ETFs adds a layer of security, easing concerns related to fraud and market manipulation prevalent in unregulated crypto markets.
Additionally, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs signifies a significant shift, indicating the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems.
While the United States has yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, several Bitcoin futures-linked ETFs have gained regulatory approval , broadening investment horizons.
Beyond Bitcoin: Exploring the Crypto ETF Spectrum
While Bitcoin has seized the spotlight, the crypto ETF landscape is not confined to it alone. Outside the United States, various Cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) encompass a spectrum of digital assets beyond Bitcoin. These offerings enable diversification within the digital asset space, catering to investors keen on exploring a range of cryptocurrencies.
In the United States, ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies like Ether also exist, albeit in the futures-related domain. Although spot-based crypto ETFs are yet to make their debut, the evolving regulatory landscape and market demand may pave the way for these in the future.
As the financial world continues its digital transformation, understanding ETFs and their crypto counterparts becomes paramount. By bridging the gap between traditional stocks and the dynamic crypto sphere, ETFs empower investors with newfound opportunities and avenues for portfolio growth.
Stay tuned for the evolving of crypto ETFs, where the world of investments meets the future of finance.
06/11/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $36088.7
Last weeks low: $35064.8
Midpoint: $34040.8
Last week price consolidated after it's considerable rally the week before, we have a mini range between 34k as support and 36k as resistance. As price has stagnated profits have trickled down the crypto ladder towards strong altcoins such as SOLANA, and more recently lower cap plays which is usually a sign that the cycle is coming to an end and that money will return to BTC, however it is difficult to say at this current moment in time if price will continue to push upwards or will we get a correction.
General market sentiment seems to point towards the bull market has returned and it's up only from here. I am not so sure that is the case but the fact that we have been consolidating at this level for quite some time now without a pullback does give further evidence for that.
For now I think it would be very risky, the time to be HTF bearish was all of last year. To enter shorts at this stage without solid confirmation of weakness, instead taking profits going into HTF resistance levels would make the most sense. As for the side-lined traders this is were FOMO is your biggest enemy, yes the market looks strong right now and there hasn't been any pullbacks to jump on. I'm keeping a close eye over the week for BTC dominance against altcoins, and news on the ETF's.
Bitcoin - Major Resistance Zones to trade - CryptocurrencyMajor Levels To Watch
Support Zone : $31,500-$32,00
Major Resistance to break: $35,300
Resistance 2: $39,987
Target 1: $44,000
Resistance 3: $53,880
Currently trading at a large margin above the Ichimoku Cloud.
ETF news could Easily Drive this into the first resistance zone.
Right now we are seeing lower-than-expected volume for this range as many traders are still sidelined waiting for the official ETF launch.
Remember most of the crypto market is correlated to bitcoin in some manner. Pay attention to these levels if you are trading alt coins.
BTC - LongI like how this looks, a lot. I think 30k comes soon. I believe we just broke out of diagonal resistance and retested it. The performance of btc vs equities has been impressive, i also anticipate the grayscale lawsuit to be a big catalyst over the next week. SEC has until Oct 13th to respond to the lawsuit and its looking good for grayscale imo. If grayscale succeeds it'll be a lead indicator on ETF approval.