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Market Update - September 15 📨 Franklin Templeton enters spot bitcoin ETF race: The asset manager with over a trillion dollars in assets under custody filed an application with the SEC to launch a spot bitcoin ETF, joining Blackrock, ARK Invest, VanEck and others. Web3 enthusiasts descend on Singapore for Token2049: Some of the largest names in the crypto space spoke at Token2049 this week, in what is set to be the largest Web3 conference this year. At the event, messaging app Telegram and the TON Foundation announced a new self-custodial crypto wallet. Binance.US executives leave amid regulatory scrutiny: It was reported that the CEO of Binance.US and other executives were leaving and that the company’s workforce would be cut by a third. The moves come as Binance, Binance.US, and founder Changpeng Zhao face suits leveled against them by the SEC and CFTC. FTX receives court approval to start liquidating crypto assets: FTX was granted permission from a bankruptcy judge to begin liquidating its crypto to start repaying creditors. The bankrupt exchange can sell up to $200 million USD in assets every week, pending creditor approval. FTX’s major crypto holdings include SOL, BTC, and ETH. Markets muted despite inflation numbers a touch above expectations: CPI was up 3.7% from a year ago (3.6% expected), while core CPI increased 4.3% (4.3% expected). Market expectations changed little as a result, with traders seeing a 97% chance that rates will remain unchanged at next week's September 20 meeting. ➡️ Read More Here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Correlation in the marketMarket correlation in the financial space that plays a crucial role in investment strategies, risk management, and portfolio diversification. It refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of different financial instruments move in relation to each other. Investors and traders use correlation analysis to make informed decisions about asset allocation and to manage risk effectively. Understanding Correlation Correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to +1 Positive Correlation equals two financial instruments have a positive correlation, it means they tend to move in the same direction. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to increase as well. A positive correlation of 1 indicates a perfect positive relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak positive relationship. Negative Correlation Conversely, is when two financial instruments have a negative correlation, it means they move in opposite directions. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to decrease. A negative correlation of -1 indicates a perfect negative relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak negative relationship. No Correlation : When the correlation between two financial instruments is zero, there is no discernible relationship between their movements. Changes in one instrument's price or return have no bearing on the other. Importance of Market Correlation Market correlation is essential for several reasons: Diversification: Investors use correlation analysis to build diversified portfolios. By combining assets with low or negative correlations, they can reduce the overall risk of their portfolio. When one asset performs poorly, another may perform well, helping to mitigate losses. Risk Management: Understanding how different instruments correlate can help investors assess the risk associated with their investments. If a portfolio is heavily concentrated in assets with high positive correlations, it may be more vulnerable to market volatility. Trading Strategies: Traders use correlation analysis to develop trading strategies. For example, pairs trading involves taking long and short positions in two correlated assets with the expectation that the spread between them will narrow or widen. Asset Allocation: Asset managers consider market correlations when deciding how to allocate resources across various asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.). A well-balanced allocation can enhance long-term returns while managing risk. Correlation Among Different Instruments Market correlation extends to various financial instruments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and more. Here are a few examples: Stocks: Correlation among individual stocks can vary widely. Stocks within the same industry or sector often have a positive correlation due to common market influences. However, stocks from different sectors may have lower correlations or even negative correlations. Bonds: Correlations among bonds depend on factors such as interest rates, credit quality, and maturity. For instance, long-term government bonds tend to have a negative correlation with equities, making them attractive for diversification. Commodities: The correlation among commodities can be influenced by factors like supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions. For instance, gold is often negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. Currencies: Currency pairs exhibit different correlation patterns. For example, EUR/USD and USD/JPY often have negative correlations because the U.S. dollar is on the opposite side of these pairs. OK, so what does correlation look like in real terms? Have you ever noticed that when a certain currency pair rises, another currency pair falls? This is correlation. I recently wrote an article here on TradingView around the "whole Economy" DXY is a great indicator for many instruments including Gold, SPX and of course Bitcoin. In that article I explained how I rise in DXY would trigger the drop in Gold, we went from 1985 to 1915. Interesting facts. Canadian dollar has the highest correlation with crude oil due to the significant proportion of Canada's GDP reliant on oil. While historically AUD has a strong relationship with gold. So........ Where does market correlation and Blackrock Bitcoin ETF fit in? First, let's use Blackrocks own definition of an ETF. (available directly from their site) An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading. ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees. Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate. ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've read countless posts on social media recently claiming Blackrock approval would bring $15 Trillion into Bitcoin, read the above note from their own website "Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. So let's assume they own the whole market and all $3 Trillion went directly into the Blackrock ETF. We have to remember the market cap at $69,000 was a little over $3 Trillion. This is far short of $1million a coin price predictions based purely off an ETF approval. Now to my point. ETF market correlation refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of ETFs correspond to the movements of their underlying assets or benchmarks. This correlation can have significant implications for investors. ETFs are often used for portfolio diversification. Understanding the correlation between ETFs and their underlying assets helps investors assess the effectiveness of their diversification strategy. Low-correlation ETFs can provide better risk reduction benefits when added to a portfolio. Hmmmm... Correlation can change based on market conditions. During periods of economic stress or heightened volatility, correlations between assets may increase as investors seek refuge in more defensive assets, potentially leading to correlations converging. The composition of an ETF's underlying assets or securities matters. For instance, a sector-specific ETF may have a high correlation with the performance of stocks within that sector. Bitcoin does not have the "stock" backing, so this will be done via the OTC Bitcoin price. Which then brings us to the ability to use inverse or leveraged ETFs to hedge against market downturns or amplify returns during bullish trends. In Blackrock's case, it is more likely a tactical Allocation aimed to adjust portfolio allocations and enter the crypto space. Remember, this happened. It's not a negative, these guys will accumulate for the long run and not expect things like $250,000 Bitcoin by Christmas. Valkyrie's ETF. Just remember, the professionals make money for a living. It's not as correlated as you might have thought in the sense of "Blackrock in, retail traders get rich". Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Navigating a Prolonged Correctional WaveThough I long term bullish on Bitcoin, my opinion remains unchanged from my former analysis in 2022. In which I believe the crypto market remains in a prolonged correctional wave. Since the initial analysis, interest rates have risen dramatically, mid/low cap equities have continued to bleed, and I myself believe crypto has yet to enter the next bull cycle. Looking a bit deeper into the situation we see a lack of volatility and liquidity. Often resulting in similar PA from 2018 which was commonly known as the bart market. Slow and sudden PA is mostly due to lack of liquidity and market participation. Pair this current environment with the regulatory pressure coming into the space, I remain unsold on the idea that the Bitcoin correction is over. Though I believe a some upward movement is possible due to a major event such as an ETF approval, I believe any hype will remain temporary until global macros improve. So until then, I will leave these levels to react upon. In summary: Long-Term Bullish on Bitcoin: My long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin remains consistent with my assessment from 2022. I maintain the view that the crypto market is still undergoing a prolonged correctional phase. Changing Market Dynamics: Since my initial analysis, we have witnessed a significant shift in market dynamics. Notably, interest rates have surged, and mid/low cap equities continue to face challenges. These factors have contributed to a sentiment that the crypto market has yet to embark on its next major bull cycle. Volatility and Liquidity Concerns: Diving deeper into the market's current state, we encounter concerns surrounding volatility and liquidity. The market's price action often mirrors the patterns seen during the 2018 'bart market.' This can be largely attributed to a lack of liquidity and reduced market participation. Furthermore, the regulatory pressures looming over the crypto space further cast a shadow of uncertainty. Temporary Potential with ETF Approval: While I acknowledge the possibility of a short-term price surge due to a major event such as an ETF approval, it is important to exercise caution. Any resulting hype may prove to be ephemeral, contingent upon broader improvements in global macro conditions. A Waiting Game: In light of these factors, I remain patient and observant. Until we witness a more substantial shift in market dynamics and improved global macros, any long term trade will be exercised with caution.
by oh92
1
Market Update - September 8th 2023 Bitcoin edges lower as SEC delays ETF decisions: Following a rush of excitement after Grayscale’s legal win against the SEC last week, bitcoin prices retraced below $26k USD as the SEC delayed its decisions on spot bitcoin ETF applications as expected. Spot ether ETF applications filed: ARK Invest and VanEck filed applications to launch a spot ether ETF with the CBOE. The applications are not expected to be considered until the SEC makes a decision on existing ether futures ETF applications. Visa boosts Solana, expanding USDC settlement to the network: Expanding USDC settlement to the Solana network will improve cross-border payment speeds, Visa said. The news pushed SOL prices higher. Interest rates expected to remain at current levels: The market is expecting the Fed to keep interest rates steady at its next meeting later this month. In traditional markets, equities were pushed lower this week by rising oil prices as Saudi Arabia and Russia continue production cuts. New crypto accounting rules ask for fair-value reporting: New rules are expected to be finalized by the end of 2023, and be implemented by the end of 2024. Microstrategy founder Michael Sayor said the move would reduce barriers for corporations holding crypto in their treasuries. Read more here ⏪
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Bitcoin ETF Launch: New Bull Run? 🚀📈 The Potential Impact of Bitcoin ETF Launch: A Long-Term Bull Run? 🚀📈 Hello, crypto enthusiasts! Today, let's explore the exciting prospect of a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) launch and how it could potentially set the stage for a long-term bull run, drawing parallels with the impact of gold ETFs in 2004. 📊 ETFs: ETFs are investment funds that track the performance of a specific asset or group of assets. A Bitcoin ETF would enable investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price movements without holding the cryptocurrency directly. 📈 Historical Precedent: To understand the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF, we can look back at the launch of gold ETFs in 2004. They provided an accessible way for investors to buy into gold, significantly boosting gold's price and leading to a prolonged bull market. 🚀 Potential Scenarios: If a Bitcoin ETF were to launch, several scenarios could unfold. It could attract a wave of institutional and retail investors looking to diversify their portfolios, potentially driving up demand and prices. 🌟 Long-Term Bull Run: Similar to gold, the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF might pave the way for a long-term bull run. Increased mainstream adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset could be on the horizon. 🔮 The Future Awaits: It's essential to remember that markets are influenced by a multitude of factors, and nothing is guaranteed. While a Bitcoin ETF launch could be a catalyst, thorough research and risk management remain crucial. In conclusion, the potential launch of a Bitcoin ETF has garnered significant attention, and its impact could be akin to the transformative effect of gold ETFs. If history is any indication, we might be on the cusp of an exciting era for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Stay informed, stay prepared, and remember – the crypto landscape is ever-evolving, presenting both challenges and opportunities! 🌐🚀
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlexWhale
We Have Our Answer!Traders, A few posts ago, you will see that (2) two gaps were being focused on. The question was posed about which might be filled first. Many of my followers understand that my bias was to the upside gap being filled first. Thanks to the Blackrock ETF approval, this has occurred. And, as I stated in my video yesterday, I have unloaded 50% of ALL my positions (alts included), taken profits, and moved my stops up to break even. I will let the remainder ride for now and hopefully take the rest off at the 50 day ma of the SPOT BTC chart which intersect exactly with the bottom of that important support (now resistance) which I talked about in yesterday's video at 28,750. If we don't hit that and I get stopped out instead, no issue cuz I move all my stops to break even and will take no loss now. There still remain (2) two unfilled gaps: one at 20,290 from March of this year and one at 35,180 from May of last year. I still believe both will be filled soon. Stay tuned for more on this unfolding price action as, through charting research, I hope to gain a better grasp on how it will go. Stew
CME:BTC1!Long
by stewdamus
$BTC gets great news, let's see how far it goesWas not going to post this but... Like clockwork, again. We noticed a slight BULLISH bias for $BTC. Even mentioned that there's huge demand for #crypto related #stocks. #BTC gets positive news today. Grayscale wins lawsuit against SEC for #bitcoin Spot #ETF. --- Previous post (see profile for more info) CRYPTOCAP:BTC is once again making case for BULLS short term. We'll see. 4Hr RSI getting stronger & can be seen on daily. Longer term #BTC has a GREAT case for bulls. However, don't be naive. Current area is not the best place for #bitcoin to build SUPPORT levels, 25k is much better, BUT it CAN!
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$QQQ -Bears been Missing - Invesco's NASDAQ:QQQ uptrend continues to remain valid, despite last weeks close in red ; while its series of Higher Highs are now places of buyers interest due to price action retracements. Price levels to continue acting as Uptrend Supports during Rising Channel's uptrend resumption. It would take a catastrophy to plunge the price of NASDAQ:QQQ considering so many supports below, while price reversing below the last touch of broken Trendline Resistance from ATH's seems 'impossible' from Fed's upcoming $USSIRY alone. Yet, that is still to be seen. Looking at Invesco NASDAQ:QQQ from ATH, a Change of Character was spotted on *W(tf). Zooming on *3D & *D (tf) a Rising Channel pattern seems to be in place, with its Resistance Trendline being respected from Price Action resulting to a negative -2.6% drawdown rejection on the last 3D* candlestick print. TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before considering partaking any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Mr_J__fx
Is SPY ETF set for down day tomorrow?My SPY analysis is pretty much aligned with the CBOE:SPX index Here is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart are the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5). Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 433 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 435.20. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 436.71, 435, and 3rd quartile at 432.5. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 436.48, median at 434.83, and the third quartile was near 432.60. THIS WEEK If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 424.19 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 433. A drop to 433 tomorrow would only be a 1.16% loss. A steeper loss in the main index could see the AMEX:SPY low in the 432.80 region. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go lower tomorrow. For now, I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 429 but still likely to occur midday Friday. THEORY BUSTERS A rise above 439.48 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 441.18 would place us back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockSignaler
3
Against the grain - BitcoinControversial. People don't like it when opinions don't align with their own beliefs. It's human nature, however - even when the obvious is smacking them in the face, they still want to reinforce and find support for what is inevitably wrong. I've talked before about the possibility of Government or WEF being behind Bitcoin. It would not surprise me one bit. It's an immutable ledger and all of the 3 letter agencies around the globe can't find the inventor... Secondly, people believe it to stand for freedom. Yet with the KYC and AML regulations, it takes nearly as much paperwork to own Bitcoin as it does to buy a house. (nearly) It's not like the FBI can seize it - oh wait, yes they can. Its not like China can limit the use, hmmm OK maybe. Binance will never stop people from withdrawing their own funds. Oh yeah that too. The issue is for me, is - CLEARLY there is an opportunity, even for me one of the lucky ones, been a Bitcoiner a long, long time. What does it need to thrive? well, almost the opposite of the wild west mentality seen today. Gone are the days where average Joe can own a few thousand coins. it's more likely that they will be spending around $5,000. Some of course more, a lot will have less to invest. Volatility means the wild price swings can make it profitable whilst using leverage. But to make it grow, it needs stability. Regulation will assist to attract larger operators. On that note - larger players does not always mean price goes up. A few days later, Valkyrie joins the stage. Now this is actually a good thing, these types of investors have a 15 year fund vision usually. So it doesn't mean - they join the party and the price sky rockets tomorrow. Clearly... The issue right now is we have Mooon Cloooowns attending these blockchain/crypto conferences, it just shows how immature the market is currently. These ETF's are not designed for retail to make a fortune, their there for the Elite to take more from retail. You have muppets calling for 100k on every post. Sheep following along, just as I said at the top of this article. They want to reinforce their own WRONG belief. Or maybe its sympathy, "someone else knows how I feel, we can relate"? I don't know what it is to be honest, but it's clearly not healthy or profitable. The one thing I have said time and time again, is the beauty of Bitcoin becoming institutionalised is that it makes it less volatile and easier to read and analyse. The more regulation and solid foundation it has, the more profitable for day trading it becomes. Of course, it is not what the average retailer wants to hear trading their micro account and hoping to become a millionaire in one trade. But for Bitcoin to move beyond current highs and into the 100k level or more, it needs to establish a good foothold of it's current accumulation. I saw a post yesterday saying 2025 forecast price $925,000 - Now to give that some real perspective. At it's current All Time High, it had a market cap of $1.3 Trillion What kind of market cap would you get with a price of $925,000 per coin? Do the math and help me understand where the additional several TRILLION comes from... OK so now for some logic. People like Saylor have made publicly their position. Post available here So of course, with that much weight other institutional players will know the fair value levels without the research. Price can gravitate towards these levels allowing the accumulation weighted average to stand out like a sore thumb! Back in the day, I got introduced to Bitcoin, not as a trader but as a tech investor. Needless to say, I had a nice little run. Unfortunately as a trader I wasn't able to post due to some money management non disclosures around tech investments made. So it wasn't until the obligations passed I could post on this topic publicly. The obvious signs were clear from the migration from a fun thing and toes in the water of many angels and VC's - into a more tradable asset class. Fast forward a little and the re-accumulation only highlighted the involvement of much, much larger operators. I talked about this on the @TradingView show with Stefan and how the composite man plays his part in the more established markets. During the move, the re-accumulation showed signs of the control and the future direction as well as give a clear indication as to where the cap would likely be. Of course, it played out as expected and against popular belief we were off to the moon. I shared the logic for the drop. This was the first set of signs that Bitcoin was here to stay and becoming more interesting with each passing swing. As we dropped to the target level. Yes that too. Marked up months in advance... The next move up was ugly, so - what did that mean? Well, it simply meant again, we were not likely to see 100k or 250k or some arbitrary figure plucked out of the sky by people who have no clue how to do proper analysis. CASE IN POINT. We could then anticipate another capped move up, seeking liquidity. I shared why this would be the case back in August before the November drop. The expectation was for the price to drop down 3-4 in Elliott Wave terms and rise 4-5 before dropping on that liquidity grab above the old highs. Then of course, we did just that. Some other obvious moves started to appear in the price action and again just reinforces the institutional control of the Bitcoin price. So what is the expectation, as I have said in most of my recent Tradingview streams. It's a larger scale accumulation. For the price to break above All Time Highs, it needs to garner it's position. The higher the price you expect, the longer sideways we are likely to go. (although it's not as simple as that). I get sick and tired of price predications like 100k next week or 250k EOY. Don't fall for the BS. Take your time and do your own due diligence. Anyways, over & out. Take it easy! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
BTC Whale deposited 4,451 Bitcoin on Binance equivalent to $133MThe recent significant whale move in the Bitcoin market, particularly involving the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL, raises concerns about potential downside risks for the cryptocurrency. Here are the key factors that might signal a bearish outlook for Bitcoin: Market Manipulation Speculation: The sudden deposit of 4,451 BTC (worth $133,689,815 USD) to Binance from the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL suggests large-scale movements by a single entity, commonly referred to as a whale. Such significant transactions can trigger speculations of market manipulation, as the actions of whales can influence Bitcoin's price in the short term. Traders and investors may become wary of sudden price swings and might choose to stay on the sidelines, leading to increased market volatility. Potential Sell-Off Pressure: The fact that the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL is currently holding 15,604 BTC (worth $467.84 million USD) raises concerns about a potential sell-off. If the whale decides to liquidate a substantial portion of its holdings, it could exert significant downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Large-scale sell-offs often trigger panic among retail investors, leading to cascading price declines. Increased Uncertainty: Whale activity of this magnitude can create uncertainty among market participants, particularly regarding the future direction of Bitcoin's price. Investors may question whether the recent price appreciation is sustainable, and concerns over the potential for a market correction could lead to reduced buying interest. Heightened uncertainty may result in decreased trading volumes and overall market sentiment turning bearish. Regulatory Scrutiny: Large-scale whale activity in the cryptocurrency market can attract regulatory attention. Authorities may closely monitor such transactions for signs of market manipulation or illegal activities. Any regulatory intervention or negative statements could add to the bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, leading to price pullbacks. Potential Chain Reaction: Whale moves of this magnitude often spark chain reactions, as other market participants observe the actions of major players and follow suit. This could lead to a domino effect of selling pressure, exacerbating the downside risks for Bitcoin. For now I`m bearish on BT Bitcoin. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Short
by TopgOptions
4
Conspiracy or something moreI wanted to post this post to get comments and thoughts of others here. Have you ever seen the film "In Time" ?? Imagine you switch out the countdown timer for Bitcoin, after all it won't be long and everyone can have them embedded under the skin. If you haven't seen the film, here's a CHATGPT explanation summary. OK so what does this have to do with trading or Bitcoin? Blackrock and the ETF's is a big play for Bitcoin, but maybe not in the way majority of retail seem to think it is. When you really stop to think - let me know your thoughts. Also latest Tradingview stream earlier. www.tradingview.com Have a good one guys! Well, as a long time cyber security investor (patents in the space also) I find it hard to believe the powers that be, can't seem to figure out one who created it and two how to regulate it and other crypto. It's a bit odd given it's an immutable ledger tech. So What I wanted to see, is what other people think - both good and bad, pros or cons, ups and downs?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
MSTR next FTX bubble MicroStrategy owns 152,800 BTC bought for $4.53 billion.The company has $2.2 billion of debt issued by MicroStrategy, the parent company, consisting of $500 million of 6.125% senior secured notes due 2028 (the “secured notes”) and two series of convertible notes, one maturing in 2025 and the other in 2027 (together, the “convertible notes”). The secured notes are guaranteed by MicroStrategy’s subsidiaries (other than MacroStrategy and its subsidiaries) and are secured by substantially all of MicroStrategy’s assets, which include its software business and, as of Sept. 30, 2022, a total of 14,890 bitcoin. Although MacroStrategy and its subsidiaries are technically restricted subsidiaries under MicroStrategy’s secured notes, in many ways they have the freedom of an unrestricted subsidiary, including their ability to incur debt secured by their bitcoin holdings.MacroStrategy is carved out from the limitations of the debt covenant, so it can incur unlimited debt. In addition, any crypto assets held by MacroStrategy at the time the secured notes were issued are carved out of the liens covenant; as a result, MacroStrategy may incur unlimited debt secured by the bitcoin that it held on the date the secured notes were issued. The fact is that FTX and Alameda were created by one person - Sam Bankman-Freed. And from the very beginning, Alameda served as a liquidity provider on FTX. Alameda wallets interacted with FTX even before the launch in May 2019 and apart from other addresses, it was the only clearly identifiable counterparty. In 2020, the chief engineer of the FTX crypto exchange made secret changes to the exchange software. They allowed Alameda Research, owned by Sam Bankman-Fried, to continue to borrow funds from FTX regardless of the value of the collateral. Weller said the prospect of such a fund coming to market after about a decade of trying by a number of issuers could pose a "big risk" for MicroStrategy. “Many investors are buying MicroStrategy shares as a widely available proxy to gain exposure to bitcoin,” he said. “But if a simple, low-fee alternative emerges, much of the current demand for the stock could dry up, leaving a costly, slow-growing operating company to manage a cumbersome, unstable balance sheet.” The Spot Bitcoin ETF, if approved, “won’t offer the same leverage returns as MicroStrategy,” Saylor said during the company’s Aug. 1 earnings announcement. However, he acknowledged that a subset of institutional investors would choose Bitcoin ETFs to participate in this space. I'll draw an analogy. Think of the rest yourself. The debtor company has doubled its capital. This is Carl's air, emptiness! Bitcoin-ETF no longer needs an intermediary in the form of this company, which can repeat the fate of FTX. Half of the Bitcoins will have to be sold on the market if the Bitcoin ETF spot is approved, because 2.2 billion debts and unlimited lending to yourself may end. Even now, investors will have a reason to doubt Michael Saylor and withdraw their funds, which will deprive the company of reliability. Will he repeat the fate of Sam? Time will show.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by almatradebusiness
1
14/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $30265.2 Last weeks low: $29472.7 Midpoint: $28680.1 BTC continues to trade a very tight range as it has for many weeks now. 30k continues to be the resistance area, the previous weeks midpoint is the local resistance as its been tested for the last few days and cannot reclaim above. As usual that midpoint from the previous week is important to the direction of this week. We've had some talk about ETF's recently, the former SEC chief has said the SEC will not approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. Personally I believe the SEC will not want to approve an ETF, however eventually I think players like Blackrock will get what they want, they always do and I wouldn't be surprised if it miraculously gets approved around the halving event, and you can be sure Blackrock and the other big players like Valkyrie would have already bought a large chunk of BTC before the supply halves at much lower prices. Really that's what every trader/investor is waiting for because at the current moment there really isn't a lot of money/volume at all in the market. The start of this half of the year is evidence enough for that. Reserving capital for the big moves that come later down the line is essential and avoiding being chopped up by the market is a big priority.
by ProR35
HYXU: Resistance Break & RestestTechnical Analysis: HYXU (iShares International High Yield Bond ETF) has been slowly grinding upward since it's October '22 lows. After almost 17 months beneath the Bull Market Support Band (20w SMA, 21w EMA), it crossed over the the upside in November of last year and has shown significant gains in the last 10 months. The assets last big push came at the significant resistance level at $47.50, which it finally flipped after 3 failed attempts. Having just completed a successful retest of the level as support, I anticipate a clean move up to $49, then $51.25, based on prior S/R levels. Fundamental Analysis: As we've all had our eyes on the Fed for the last year and a half, I'm sure most of you know that interest rates are at their highest levels in roughly 22 years. By doing this, the Fed has pulled a large portion of liquidity out of the bond market with enticing, low-risk Treasury yields. However, as we approach their terminal rate of ~550 BPs, and as the high cost of money starts to impede businesses' ability to invest and grow, I anticipate a rotation out of stocks and into fixed income investments. The most readily accessible of which, for retail investors, are corporate bond ETFs such as HYXU. With a yield of ~6.5%, it remains more than competitive with even the highest paying treasury, and offers investors a liquid alternative to locking up their funds for months or years. Feel free to post your questions, comments, concerns, qualms, quandaries, contributions, or conversation below! **Disclaimer** This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. Individual circumstances and current events are critical to sound investment planning; anyone wishing to act on this article should consult with his or her advisor.
CBOE:HYXULong
by NotSoDegen