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KRE ETF – are banking risks resurfacing? While the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has been a key factor in supporting bank equity, the rapid rise in US Treasury bond yields is a concern, and so is the exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). We can see CRE benchmarks rolling over of late and heading lower and this is keeping investors from buying into regionals. One for the radar, but if we see the price continue in the current trajectory then it could see signs of greater risk aversion kicking into markets. Staying in the ETF scene, I am also watching the HYG ETF (iShares High Yield Corp ETF) given we see that falling sharply but seeing some extremely oversold reads.
AMEX:KREShort
by Pepperstone
Bitcoin update 25.09.23Hi , the market has been very boring for the last few months, I think it's hard to disagree with that. During this time of course there has been manipulative pumping of small liquid altcoins. But still boring or am I getting old :) I see a further rapid decline in bitcoin price, in the next 2-3 weeks, liquidation of all those jaded crypto traders, and after that I expect a bull rally, that's what I said in previous posts. Let's put it this way, I have long ago made an analysis and came to the opinion that we will go below 16k is 20% probability based on analysis and reserch of all reversal patterns, on the history of other assets. 20% is the black swan (pandemic, nuclear strikes, etc.). Globally, we have been in a bull market since November 2022, every previous cycle had a sub-cycle with crowd disappointment, and we are approaching that state. Once there is that final down movement I will only look up and be bullish until September 2025. Regarding interest levels for me - I have shown all the interest levels on the chart with blue and yellow boxing I would also like to point out that the current distribution is very similar to the 2021 - 2022 distribution I don't want to mislead you, but as you can see bitcoin holders don't believe in the bitcoin crash and collapse scenario (it's stupid because it's a cow that gives milk and it would be very stupid to kill this cow) and are set for the long term, I'm one of them - in the cypto world bitcoin is gold. About ETFs - a lot of talk is it good or bad? it is 100% good in the long run for bitcoin price. ETFs are an opportunity for huge capital to enter cryptocurrency. While regulators are rejecting ETFs those very same financial companies are buying up real bitcoin. Everyone understands the prospects of this asset and the interest in it. Best regards EXCAVO
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
24
🔥 Bitcoin Bullish Break Out: Sell-The News?In previous analyses I've been quite bearish on BTC's outlook. I mentioned that a daily close above the dotted purple resistance line would greatly favor the bulls and that I would switch my short-term stance to the bulls once we closed the day above it. And here we area. The bulls have pushed through on Ethereum's ETF's. However, I'm worried that this ETF launch is going to end up being a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, like we've seen in the past. The yellow bullish channel is currently offering resistance. We'll know very soon if it will hold or not. A patient bull will likely try to step in from the bottom support of the channel. Patience is key.
Long
by FieryTrading
5
SPY S&P 500 etf Options expiring next weekIf you haven`t bought puts ahead of the FED`s Interest Rate Decision last week: Which happen to end up 4.18X higher after the Federal Reserve suggested the likelihood of another rate increase in the near future. Then you need to know that SPY is approaching an oversold area. And historically, as you can see in the RSI chart, in these areas technical players tend to buy the dip, anticipating a technical rebound. In this context, and looking into the options chain, I would consider the following Calls expiring next Friday: 2023-9-29 expiration date $430 Strike Price $4.38 Premium Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
3
SPY S&P500 ETF Options ahead of the FED Interest Rate DecisionThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. Moreover, core CPI, at 4.3% year-on-year, has held steady as per expectations. These numbers underscore the persistent inflationary trend we have been witnessing. Such elevated levels of inflation can be concerning for financial markets, as they often lead to higher interest rates. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, there is speculation of another 0.25 basis points rate hike, which would further tighten monetary policy. In light of this, I`m considering the following Puts: September 29, 2023 expiration date, $440 strike price, and $2.25 premium, to align with the bearish sentiment. This strategy could potentially be prudent given the expected market conditions. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant, as market reactions to FOMC decisions can be unpredictable and swift. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
1
Bitcoin made complexAs someone who has been around Bitcoin a long time, I find it interesting to see people try and find their own "edge" from how they utilise on-chain metrics, to liquidity maps and sometimes even deeper with things like the energy consumption or BTC mined. The last couple, most recent years - Bitcoin has been moving towards it's institutional position and that has been something incredible to watch first hand as it slowly unfurled. The logic can be simplified and following the larger players and their intentions can be very lucrative. The major issue with statistics and metrics is that these can also be spoofed, manipulated and written in ways favourable to the cause. **Caveat - not always, but can be ** What gets me is when a local 'influencer' comes up with why Bitcoin will ping some arbitrary figure just because it sounds rounded. I haven't once heard someone say, it's likely to hit $237,500 followed by some logical argument. Here's some simple logic. Bitcoin's market cap. At $69,000 we saw a cap of 1.3T roughly. To obtain this number you can do the math by knowing how many coins in circulation and times that by the price. This of course will be ever changing, new addresses and price fluctuations coupled with more coins until 21m is hit. So you can be rough on your calculations without stressing. Here is a snapshot of the coins in circulation Take this now with the current price lingering around $27,000 you have a market cap. Why does this matter? Well, it doesn't really, other than to guestimate what kind of additional money in-flows would be required to make Bitcoin as valuable as the influencers claim. Let's use the current number 19,491,306 Times that by the price claimed and you can guestimate a Market Cap. 19 million, 491 thousand, 3 hundred and 6 times $250,000 (often used figure) The question then becomes - where does the additional money come from? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this image, you can see the steady growth of the tokens/coins in circulation Or here the transactions per day. How about the energy consumption? You see, none of this actually matters when analysing the charts. Instead, understanding the picture painted by the larger players in the game, can give you hints as to where and why next. You take the snapshot of the COT (Commitment of Traders) report. This has allowed me to assess every major move in the Bitcoin chart, the logic for each swing is smacking you square in the face. These moves are not as random as you think. The market is simply an algorithm seeking liquidity. Nothing more complex than that. Instead these clowns come up with figures like $250,000 and quotes like 98k next month and 135k the month after, without any logic or rational as to how or where the money is coming from. Instead of moving up to $135,000 the price drops to $15,500 that's an awful lot to be wrong. Why? ZERO logic or clue as to what actually moves the market. Imagine selling at the top?! If the smiley laughing emoji hadn't have been used, it could have been one awesome call! Instead of looking in the wrong places, learn to understand where and why. Here's another interesting topic on this point. Anyways, enjoy the rest of your week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
Market Update - September 15 📨 Franklin Templeton enters spot bitcoin ETF race: The asset manager with over a trillion dollars in assets under custody filed an application with the SEC to launch a spot bitcoin ETF, joining Blackrock, ARK Invest, VanEck and others. Web3 enthusiasts descend on Singapore for Token2049: Some of the largest names in the crypto space spoke at Token2049 this week, in what is set to be the largest Web3 conference this year. At the event, messaging app Telegram and the TON Foundation announced a new self-custodial crypto wallet. Binance.US executives leave amid regulatory scrutiny: It was reported that the CEO of Binance.US and other executives were leaving and that the company’s workforce would be cut by a third. The moves come as Binance, Binance.US, and founder Changpeng Zhao face suits leveled against them by the SEC and CFTC. FTX receives court approval to start liquidating crypto assets: FTX was granted permission from a bankruptcy judge to begin liquidating its crypto to start repaying creditors. The bankrupt exchange can sell up to $200 million USD in assets every week, pending creditor approval. FTX’s major crypto holdings include SOL, BTC, and ETH. Markets muted despite inflation numbers a touch above expectations: CPI was up 3.7% from a year ago (3.6% expected), while core CPI increased 4.3% (4.3% expected). Market expectations changed little as a result, with traders seeing a 97% chance that rates will remain unchanged at next week's September 20 meeting. ➡️ Read More Here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Correlation in the marketMarket correlation in the financial space that plays a crucial role in investment strategies, risk management, and portfolio diversification. It refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of different financial instruments move in relation to each other. Investors and traders use correlation analysis to make informed decisions about asset allocation and to manage risk effectively. Understanding Correlation Correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to +1 Positive Correlation equals two financial instruments have a positive correlation, it means they tend to move in the same direction. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to increase as well. A positive correlation of 1 indicates a perfect positive relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak positive relationship. Negative Correlation Conversely, is when two financial instruments have a negative correlation, it means they move in opposite directions. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to decrease. A negative correlation of -1 indicates a perfect negative relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak negative relationship. No Correlation : When the correlation between two financial instruments is zero, there is no discernible relationship between their movements. Changes in one instrument's price or return have no bearing on the other. Importance of Market Correlation Market correlation is essential for several reasons: Diversification: Investors use correlation analysis to build diversified portfolios. By combining assets with low or negative correlations, they can reduce the overall risk of their portfolio. When one asset performs poorly, another may perform well, helping to mitigate losses. Risk Management: Understanding how different instruments correlate can help investors assess the risk associated with their investments. If a portfolio is heavily concentrated in assets with high positive correlations, it may be more vulnerable to market volatility. Trading Strategies: Traders use correlation analysis to develop trading strategies. For example, pairs trading involves taking long and short positions in two correlated assets with the expectation that the spread between them will narrow or widen. Asset Allocation: Asset managers consider market correlations when deciding how to allocate resources across various asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.). A well-balanced allocation can enhance long-term returns while managing risk. Correlation Among Different Instruments Market correlation extends to various financial instruments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and more. Here are a few examples: Stocks: Correlation among individual stocks can vary widely. Stocks within the same industry or sector often have a positive correlation due to common market influences. However, stocks from different sectors may have lower correlations or even negative correlations. Bonds: Correlations among bonds depend on factors such as interest rates, credit quality, and maturity. For instance, long-term government bonds tend to have a negative correlation with equities, making them attractive for diversification. Commodities: The correlation among commodities can be influenced by factors like supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions. For instance, gold is often negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. Currencies: Currency pairs exhibit different correlation patterns. For example, EUR/USD and USD/JPY often have negative correlations because the U.S. dollar is on the opposite side of these pairs. OK, so what does correlation look like in real terms? Have you ever noticed that when a certain currency pair rises, another currency pair falls? This is correlation. I recently wrote an article here on TradingView around the "whole Economy" DXY is a great indicator for many instruments including Gold, SPX and of course Bitcoin. In that article I explained how I rise in DXY would trigger the drop in Gold, we went from 1985 to 1915. Interesting facts. Canadian dollar has the highest correlation with crude oil due to the significant proportion of Canada's GDP reliant on oil. While historically AUD has a strong relationship with gold. So........ Where does market correlation and Blackrock Bitcoin ETF fit in? First, let's use Blackrocks own definition of an ETF. (available directly from their site) An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading. ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees. Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate. ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've read countless posts on social media recently claiming Blackrock approval would bring $15 Trillion into Bitcoin, read the above note from their own website "Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. So let's assume they own the whole market and all $3 Trillion went directly into the Blackrock ETF. We have to remember the market cap at $69,000 was a little over $3 Trillion. This is far short of $1million a coin price predictions based purely off an ETF approval. Now to my point. ETF market correlation refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of ETFs correspond to the movements of their underlying assets or benchmarks. This correlation can have significant implications for investors. ETFs are often used for portfolio diversification. Understanding the correlation between ETFs and their underlying assets helps investors assess the effectiveness of their diversification strategy. Low-correlation ETFs can provide better risk reduction benefits when added to a portfolio. Hmmmm... Correlation can change based on market conditions. During periods of economic stress or heightened volatility, correlations between assets may increase as investors seek refuge in more defensive assets, potentially leading to correlations converging. The composition of an ETF's underlying assets or securities matters. For instance, a sector-specific ETF may have a high correlation with the performance of stocks within that sector. Bitcoin does not have the "stock" backing, so this will be done via the OTC Bitcoin price. Which then brings us to the ability to use inverse or leveraged ETFs to hedge against market downturns or amplify returns during bullish trends. In Blackrock's case, it is more likely a tactical Allocation aimed to adjust portfolio allocations and enter the crypto space. Remember, this happened. It's not a negative, these guys will accumulate for the long run and not expect things like $250,000 Bitcoin by Christmas. Valkyrie's ETF. Just remember, the professionals make money for a living. It's not as correlated as you might have thought in the sense of "Blackrock in, retail traders get rich". Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Navigating a Prolonged Correctional WaveThough I long term bullish on Bitcoin, my opinion remains unchanged from my former analysis in 2022. In which I believe the crypto market remains in a prolonged correctional wave. Since the initial analysis, interest rates have risen dramatically, mid/low cap equities have continued to bleed, and I myself believe crypto has yet to enter the next bull cycle. Looking a bit deeper into the situation we see a lack of volatility and liquidity. Often resulting in similar PA from 2018 which was commonly known as the bart market. Slow and sudden PA is mostly due to lack of liquidity and market participation. Pair this current environment with the regulatory pressure coming into the space, I remain unsold on the idea that the Bitcoin correction is over. Though I believe a some upward movement is possible due to a major event such as an ETF approval, I believe any hype will remain temporary until global macros improve. So until then, I will leave these levels to react upon. In summary: Long-Term Bullish on Bitcoin: My long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin remains consistent with my assessment from 2022. I maintain the view that the crypto market is still undergoing a prolonged correctional phase. Changing Market Dynamics: Since my initial analysis, we have witnessed a significant shift in market dynamics. Notably, interest rates have surged, and mid/low cap equities continue to face challenges. These factors have contributed to a sentiment that the crypto market has yet to embark on its next major bull cycle. Volatility and Liquidity Concerns: Diving deeper into the market's current state, we encounter concerns surrounding volatility and liquidity. The market's price action often mirrors the patterns seen during the 2018 'bart market.' This can be largely attributed to a lack of liquidity and reduced market participation. Furthermore, the regulatory pressures looming over the crypto space further cast a shadow of uncertainty. Temporary Potential with ETF Approval: While I acknowledge the possibility of a short-term price surge due to a major event such as an ETF approval, it is important to exercise caution. Any resulting hype may prove to be ephemeral, contingent upon broader improvements in global macro conditions. A Waiting Game: In light of these factors, I remain patient and observant. Until we witness a more substantial shift in market dynamics and improved global macros, any long term trade will be exercised with caution.
by oh92
1
Market Update - September 8th 2023 Bitcoin edges lower as SEC delays ETF decisions: Following a rush of excitement after Grayscale’s legal win against the SEC last week, bitcoin prices retraced below $26k USD as the SEC delayed its decisions on spot bitcoin ETF applications as expected. Spot ether ETF applications filed: ARK Invest and VanEck filed applications to launch a spot ether ETF with the CBOE. The applications are not expected to be considered until the SEC makes a decision on existing ether futures ETF applications. Visa boosts Solana, expanding USDC settlement to the network: Expanding USDC settlement to the Solana network will improve cross-border payment speeds, Visa said. The news pushed SOL prices higher. Interest rates expected to remain at current levels: The market is expecting the Fed to keep interest rates steady at its next meeting later this month. In traditional markets, equities were pushed lower this week by rising oil prices as Saudi Arabia and Russia continue production cuts. New crypto accounting rules ask for fair-value reporting: New rules are expected to be finalized by the end of 2023, and be implemented by the end of 2024. Microstrategy founder Michael Sayor said the move would reduce barriers for corporations holding crypto in their treasuries. Read more here ⏪
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Bitcoin ETF Launch: New Bull Run? 🚀📈 The Potential Impact of Bitcoin ETF Launch: A Long-Term Bull Run? 🚀📈 Hello, crypto enthusiasts! Today, let's explore the exciting prospect of a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) launch and how it could potentially set the stage for a long-term bull run, drawing parallels with the impact of gold ETFs in 2004. 📊 ETFs: ETFs are investment funds that track the performance of a specific asset or group of assets. A Bitcoin ETF would enable investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price movements without holding the cryptocurrency directly. 📈 Historical Precedent: To understand the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF, we can look back at the launch of gold ETFs in 2004. They provided an accessible way for investors to buy into gold, significantly boosting gold's price and leading to a prolonged bull market. 🚀 Potential Scenarios: If a Bitcoin ETF were to launch, several scenarios could unfold. It could attract a wave of institutional and retail investors looking to diversify their portfolios, potentially driving up demand and prices. 🌟 Long-Term Bull Run: Similar to gold, the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF might pave the way for a long-term bull run. Increased mainstream adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset could be on the horizon. 🔮 The Future Awaits: It's essential to remember that markets are influenced by a multitude of factors, and nothing is guaranteed. While a Bitcoin ETF launch could be a catalyst, thorough research and risk management remain crucial. In conclusion, the potential launch of a Bitcoin ETF has garnered significant attention, and its impact could be akin to the transformative effect of gold ETFs. If history is any indication, we might be on the cusp of an exciting era for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Stay informed, stay prepared, and remember – the crypto landscape is ever-evolving, presenting both challenges and opportunities! 🌐🚀
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlexWhale
We Have Our Answer!Traders, A few posts ago, you will see that (2) two gaps were being focused on. The question was posed about which might be filled first. Many of my followers understand that my bias was to the upside gap being filled first. Thanks to the Blackrock ETF approval, this has occurred. And, as I stated in my video yesterday, I have unloaded 50% of ALL my positions (alts included), taken profits, and moved my stops up to break even. I will let the remainder ride for now and hopefully take the rest off at the 50 day ma of the SPOT BTC chart which intersect exactly with the bottom of that important support (now resistance) which I talked about in yesterday's video at 28,750. If we don't hit that and I get stopped out instead, no issue cuz I move all my stops to break even and will take no loss now. There still remain (2) two unfilled gaps: one at 20,290 from March of this year and one at 35,180 from May of last year. I still believe both will be filled soon. Stay tuned for more on this unfolding price action as, through charting research, I hope to gain a better grasp on how it will go. Stew
CME:BTC1!Long
by stewdamus
$BTC gets great news, let's see how far it goesWas not going to post this but... Like clockwork, again. We noticed a slight BULLISH bias for $BTC. Even mentioned that there's huge demand for #crypto related #stocks. #BTC gets positive news today. Grayscale wins lawsuit against SEC for #bitcoin Spot #ETF. --- Previous post (see profile for more info) CRYPTOCAP:BTC is once again making case for BULLS short term. We'll see. 4Hr RSI getting stronger & can be seen on daily. Longer term #BTC has a GREAT case for bulls. However, don't be naive. Current area is not the best place for #bitcoin to build SUPPORT levels, 25k is much better, BUT it CAN!
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC