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BTC Correction Off the Ba k of ETF News?BTC on a weekly has been on a tear and is obviously over heated from all technical regards. However there is strong fundamental news holding the price up in anticipation of the SPOT ETF deadline in January 2024. I am proposing a theory that goes against the general sentiment in the market right now - in the face of everyones over bullishness, including Bloomberg analyst forecasting a 99% ETF Approval odds in January, I can see a delay. Heres my timeline: 1. January ETF deadlines will be denied or delayed. 2. The price will bomb off the news, scaring everyone. 3. Ark Invest will obviously refile with the necessary adjustments. 4. BTC will find support somewhere above 25k. 5. March - all BTC SPOT ETFs will be approved on the BlackRock deadline. 6. April - BTC supply will halve - Supply shock accompanied by renewed hype of the SPOT approvals. 7. May - June major capitol begins to flow in from ETFs and we go Lamborghini candle mode. This is all showing in price action history. Historically major progressive announcements in the crypto space have resulted in a flash correction - reference the chart - notice the large correction that resulted after CoinBase IPO. The Price action looks very similar to previous local tops that coincided with giga bullish news - again resulting in a flash correction to major support. Further - We never confirmed 30K as support after almost an entire year of resistance. This needs to happen for healthy market structure moving into the BullRun post halving. Lastly we are currently trading between the .5 & .618 fibonacci retracement from the ATH and the bear market low. There will be major sell pressure coming in between 48-50K and I can see a spike to that price if the ETFs are approved and then a Rapid sell off to back test 30K. Smart DCA - Buy weekly now with half your strength - set the other half to the side for a potential and highly likely correction. I have been Bullish since 15K, I knew i was right because everyone was Bearish. Im Short term Bearish now because everyone in the world is calling for new ATH before the Halving and a 100K BTC by January - It wont happen! Dont get FOMOd.
Short
by AlexSpicer94
2
Trading AutomationI am just going to put it out there, as you know I have said time and time again in my streams. Personally, the whole automated trading concept is not for me. However, that’s not to say there are not some good strategies, tools and instruments that could work for some people. Risk tolerance, time frames, bull vs bear markets all play a role in trading. This is emphasised when the trading is automated. A few weeks back, myself and @Paul_Varcoe starting streaming about shorter timeframes and automation. We said we were working on something in the background – mostly to do with trading via prop firms. Here’s on of my streams on that topic. So, the next part was automation. Here's one of these streams: www.tradingview.com I have been lurking around a couple of services, tools and platforms – one of these is a company/product called 3Commas. A few things I found interesting. One of which is that it supports multiple cryptocurrency exchanges, allowing users to trade on various platforms using a single interface. For the Tradingview community this is a very useful option. You can even go as far as connecting your bot to one or more TradingView indicators of your choice, and the bot will automatically receive alerts and open trades accordingly. My reluctance of automation has always been, if a bot can do it – we won’t need Doctors or Police officers as they will all want to be professional traders. I have also spent some time in the money management sector and know the investment and effort some very large operators have put into the automation game. What I liked about this 3commas platform, is that it opens the door for retail to play in this world. Having access to trading bots that can execute trades automatically based on predefined strategies is one factor, it still requires users to set up custom trading strategies or choose from a marketplace of existing strategies developed by other users. So, what this means is if you have a specific trading strategy you can link directly from Tradingview and just allow it to open trades. I have taken this image as an example from their site, it’s easier than trying to write it myself. There also seems to be a lot of open-source code, literature and information readily available online. All beneficial factors if you’re planning on going down the automation route. Myself and Paul have been more conventional traders, operating in well established markets. But of course we have had our dabbles in alt coins, Bitcoin and so on. It seems to be the way the world is shifting. I have been using webhooks on Tradingview recently to trade Aussie dollar and Euro on smaller timeframes just sending an alert to one of my channels – but the ability to take out the execution stage is a new one on me. If you’re a crypto fanatic I can say this is worth a look for sure! When looking at this automation, I found another editors pick here on @TradingView So, although I know very little about the strategy or the individual trader @Bjorgum who wrote the article, it’s a great example of the type of power mixing things like 3Commas and Tradingview can yield. Throughout 2023 I have shown and shared several articles on Prop firm trading, shorter timeframes and even how to use Chat GPT to write Tradingview indicators. Link to one of them: www.tradingview.com My next step is to use chat GPT to program an indicator I can fully automate (market condition depending) to link to 3Commas using TV as the glue. Here’s an example of what I mean: I literally asked ChatGPT this question “can you write a pinescript version 4 code to enter trades based on pivot point breakouts taking profits at S2 and R2 with stop losses in the other direction at R1 and S1.” I got a reply; Before you ask - The code will probably get rejected to put out as an indicator as Pinescript will say “Pivot point indicators are readily available” but copy and paste my question above and you should get a similar result. Of course, this is only an example. Feel free to play around with your own strategies and concepts. The idea then is to take this through the papertesting and backtesting to refine a strategy that you feel comfortable with in terms of plugging into a bot and connecting to your broker. The whole concept for me is mind blowing, the fact that anyone can have a Tradingview account, use ChatGPT to build and indicator and execute a trade via your broker on a platform like 3Commas. Over the next couple of weeks I intend on digging a little deeper with these and either start with using ChatGPT to link a strategy via Tradingview into 3Commas or take a strategy or indicator off the shelf and test drive it in a stream or sequence of streams. Maybe give me some ideas, if you like? what timeframes? What instruments etc... This will be part of the educational, how to make trading automation a real thing series. Anyways! Enjoy the Holidays - Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
ETH BEARISH DIVERGENCE?ETHEREUM along with BITCOIN have both produced huge gains this year with ETH up 93.66% and BTC at 166.35%. For me ETH is at a crossroads and the positives and negatives in my opinion are as follows: POSITIVES: - The market looks strong, consolidation periods are not long in duration, and price has just broken out of a long term range. It looks like crypto interest has returned and with ETF decisions in sight it looks like the sentiment is LONG into this news event. - Fundamentally ETH is in a strong place right now, it recently gained 'deflationary' status too which helps the supply/demand dynamic for the bulls. - ETH tends to follow suit after BTC, so when BTC goes up the profits rotate into ETH when BTC is consolidating and then it catches up. Since BTC is so far ahead in terms of %gain this year I do believe ETH is due it's major rally however I don't think it will come soon, I can see BTC continuing to dominate it for some time until the BTC ETF narrative has passed and the final blow off top at the end of the Bullrun which is some time away, 2 years or so... NEGATIVES: - It looks like we're at resistance on the volume profile after a huge rally with very few pullbacks. - Reliant on BTC to maintain the move forward. If BTC falls off a cliff it will bring ETH down with it. - Major bearish divergence on the 1D timeframe. - Approaching overbought on the weekly time frame. - Euphoric sentiment, both on CT but also in your own feelings. If you've been into crypto for a number of years you would know getting euphoric often leads to returning any gains that were made. - New yearly high for the fear and greed index @ 75. To conclude, I am still macro bullish on ETHEREUM. Over the long run (next 2 years) I have no doubt ETHEREUM will see new highs. However, I do want to be wary of a pullback , not just for ETH but also BTC as altcoins are subject to any changes in BTC which has gone parabolic in recent days. This coupled with the bearish divergence means from a Technical analysis standpoint maybe this is a good time to take profits. From a fundamental analysis standpoint the market is strong and everyone is euphoric. What happens next will be decided by people being bullish team FA or if people are team bearish on TA.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by ProR35
2
BTC Another disappointment for the bearshello dear trader and investors If you follow my page, you know that I have already said that you should only buy Bitcoin, an economic crisis is coming... Today I want to present another analysis Bitcoin has reacted to the 0.23 Fibonacci retracement wave... the next target according to the harmonic pattern can be the 2.616 Fibo savior... which is a prz savior consisting of: (dynamic resistance + fibou 0.618 + harmonic (ab=cd 2.618) Another disappointment for the bears good luck Mehdi
Long
by mehdi_kb
1
18/12/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43813.15 Last weeks low: $42006.79 Midpoint: $40200.42 BTC spent the previous week chopping sideways for the majority after failing to continue its bullish structure on the 1h timeframe. For now we're seeing a pullback of ~10% which has allowed profits to rotate into other areas of the market, predominantly smaller cap L1's and other narrative plays such as AI, RWA & gaming coins. The market has needed a pullback/correction after near relentless run. As we near the ETF approvals and the halving volatility will only increase from here. Buying double digit drawdowns on these projects and holding long term is a good way to DCA in for this Bullrun. see my last post for the big picture Bullrun setup. If we see price drop before weekly low and print a new lower low the next support is 38K and 32.5k lower than that for great long term entries.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
Bitcoin(BTC): Pumped 6% - Near our ResistanceFourth Day: Price has had a nice bounce from near the FVG zone (at $40K), where so far we have had a nice 6% market price movement! This being said, we are getting closer and closer to our major target of $44,500, which should determine the next major movement. As you all remember, we are waiting for more bearish scenarios to occur near this zone, but let's see what we will get once we are near it! Greed and Fear Index: Still Greedy and growing (72)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
BTC Macro UpdatesBTC make perfect Bearish Shark at 35900$ as i have already share chart regarding this. As you can see BTC spot has no volume since March as mentioned in chart. It is just manipulation and grapping liquidity According to onchain analysis Upside liquidity has been grab almost 1.5B$ has been liquidate.Everyone is bullish now which means big move is coming.This senerio is remindering about recent crash when BTC touch 50k$ from 30k$ in May 2022. Becaregul with your trade on larger tf. Trendline has also been broken and just retesting here. If BTC cross 37000$ with full candle it will invalidate this pattern. This is macro analysis based on weekly tf. If you like this kindly follow me and like this Idea Thank you
Short
by hamzashabbir990
6
BTCUSDT Next big resistance 1. Current Trend : Bitcoin is currently experiencing a minor bullish trend, which means its price is gradually increasing. 2. Short-term Price Movement : There is an anticipation of a temporary pullback in Bitcoin's price. This pullback refers to a short-term decline in the price, which is normal in financial markets even during an overall upward trend. 3. Institutional Investment Strategy: The expected pullback is seen as a strategic opportunity for larger investors or institutions. These entities are predicted to buy Bitcoin during this dip in price, with the intention of investing at a lower cost. 4. Impact of SEC's ETF Approval: A key factor in this prediction is the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The approval of a Bitcoin ETF would likely lead to increased demand and higher prices, as it would make Bitcoin more accessible and legitimate to a wider range of investors, including those who prefer traditional investment vehicles. 5. Post-ETF Approval Scenario : Assuming the SEC approves the Bitcoin ETF, the prediction is that Bitcoin's price will see a significant increase. This rise would be fueled by the influx of new investors and increased mainstream acceptance. 6. Long-term Outlook: The long-term outlook for Bitcoin, post-ETF approval, is positive. As more institutions and individual investors gain confidence and invest in Bitcoin, its price is expected to stabilize at a higher level than its pre-ETF approval price. In conclusion, this prediction sees a short-term pullback in Bitcoin's price as a strategic buying opportunity for institutions, leading up to a significant rise in value following the potential SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF. This scenario is contingent on several factors, particularly regulatory developments, and thus carries inherent uncertainty typical of financial market predictions.
Long
by Aibullz
Bitcoin Near-Term Price TargetFuelled by its imminent ETF approval, Bitcoin broke past resistance at $28,000 and has seemingly begun a new bull market. For those of you who got in on this move, myself included, I have identified what I think will be a temporary top and a good place to take profit within the next 1-2 months. On the 1W timeframe we can see the cloud edge to edge trade is in progress and typically price will reach the flat line at the top of the cloud, which is at about $42,000. This level is the 50% fibonacci retracement of the previous bull market high in November 2021, and the bear market low in November 2022. Additionally the level roughly coincides with the top of the monthly bollinger bands which will act as resistance. Of note is that the bollinger bands are in the process of squeezing together, which occurs prior to a high volatility move. Once we hit the $42,000 area and the ETF approval is officially announced, I expect that there may be a sell the news event as we have already been pumping on the rumour. Then there will be sideways for a few months until the halving. New chart patterns will likely form during this period, which will provide an opportunity for re-entry and a continuation of the bull market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by HaydenOtto
S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:RSP chart analysis/mapping. RSP ETF rally representing S&P market breadth - offering legitimacy to overall market strength & further indication of healthy stock rotation, instead of "Magnificent 7" concentration. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / descending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone. Continuation rally #2 = multiple gap fills / 78.6% confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 61.8% Fib / ascending trend-line (green dashed). Shallow pullback #2 = gap fill / 50% Fib / 200MA confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / 38.2% Fib confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = descending trend-line (white) / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:RSP
by BlueHatInvestor
Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:DIA chart anaylsis/mapping. DIA ETF on relative strength compared to recent SPY/QQQ performance, indicating potential market rotation. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib. Shallow pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / ascending trend-line (green dashed) / gap fill confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = gap fills / descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = Golden Pocket Fib / 200MA confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue). Capitulation #2 = gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone. Capitulation #3 = gap fills / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:DIA
by BlueHatInvestor
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:IWM chart analysis/mapping. IWM ETF rally off late October lows on market expectations of the end to Fed rate hikes. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = multiple gap fill / 38.2% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 23.6% Fib / horizontal line (light blue dashed) confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = lower range of parallel channel (green) / 200MA confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = re-test ~163 bottom.
AMEX:IWM
by BlueHatInvestor
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ~ December 4H SwingNASDAQ:QQQ chart analysis/mapping. QQQ ETF in consolidation phase after strong November rally. Trading scenarios: Further consolidation = descending trend-line (light blue) / multiple EMA confluence zone. Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib / ascending trend-line (green) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 78.6% Fib / 200MA confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = descending trend-line (white dotted)\ Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib Capitulation #2 = 38.2% Fib / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone. Capitulation #3 = 23.6% Fib
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BlueHatInvestor
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:SPY chart analysis/mapping. Spy ETF strong rally throughout November - is it due for a pullback in December? Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (white) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = Golden Pocket / descending trend-line (white) / 200MA confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (light blue) / 50& Fib / gap fill confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = multiple gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:SPY
by BlueHatInvestor
04/12/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $40446.2 Last weeks low: $38576.9 Midpoint: $36707.5 Going into the final month of the year BTC continues its march into the 40k region after flipping 38.5k (Midpoint) as new support. After the 5th attempt at flipping the key area bitcoin finally managed to breakthrough and with that a surge towards and beyond 40k soon followed. 42K is a huge HTF level for BTC, major reactions in price movement often start at 42k and so it's prone to volatility. During the 2020-2021 Bullrun price bounced off 42k as resistance on the way up, then it was support on the way down multiple times throughout that cycle. Currently there is a large bearish Orderblock located there and so I would predict that only a huge news event/ ETF approval or the halving itself would push us safely beyond this and claim it as new support. For now I am very hesitant to open any new longs, either we consolidate at the current level under major resistance in which case this is a great time to take profits and look to make plans to rebuy lower down as price drops off. For this week I'm looking at where I can get entries going into the new year, the ETF approval is on the horizon along with the halving. Binance has in a way been cleansed and so there really isn't anything holding back a full scale Bullrun. Half the supply & many times more the demand, thanks to BlackRock and other investment groups. We may only get one or two more opportunities for a great entry on a 2 year hold.
by ProR35
Story repeats itself- i have to post this chart. - it seems some peoples didn't get what i posted in one of my older chart. - i will post this chart in comments. - Remember this is not a price prediction. - Everything is just about comparing the past and the present. - in 2018-2019 BTC was fluctuating in bearmarket with 4 Digits. - Now BTC is fluctuating in bearmarket with 5 Digits. - We are evolving in a different trend. - All in graphic and hope you get the idea. Happy Tr4Ding !
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by thecryer
4
Market Update - December 1 2023 Bitcoin climbs as SEC speeds up spot bitcoin ETF review process: Bitcoin (BTC) continued to grind higher this week, reaching a new yearly high of over $38.5k, as market participants continued accumulating BTC ahead of the potential ETF approvals at the start of next year. The SEC announced it would open the comment period for its review of applications submitted by asset manager Franklin Templeton and crypto-native firm Hashdex, leading to speculation that the regulator may be lining up “every applicant up for potential approval by the Jan 10, 2024 deadline.” Investors continued to accumulate BTC, including an unidentified whale that has been gaining attention after purchasing ~12k BTC, worth more than $450 million, over the past month. Microstrategy also announced that it bought another ~$600 million worth of BTC in November, bringing its total holdings to 174,530 BTC. Federal Reserve Governors appear to diverge on interest rate hikes ahead of December meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to have its last meeting of the year on December 13, with the market widely expecting rates to remain unchanged. On Tuesday, two separate speeches from Federal Reserve governors differed on how they see the path forward on inflation and interest rates. Fed governor Michelle Bowman suggested that more rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation back down to 2%, and notably hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller appeared to ease his stance, suggesting that more hikes are not needed. USTC and LUNC skyrocket amid Binance perps listing and airdrop news: Following rumors that there may be a Terra Classic USD (USTC) revamp backed by bitcoin and news that Binance would be a USTC perpetuals listing, USTC and LUNC unexpectedly gained investor attention this week. FTX estate given approval to sell off trust assets: The FTX bankruptcy reached a key milestone this week as the estate was granted approval to sell its trust assets worth roughly $873 million at current prices. The added supply from these sell orders could cap price action for some of the assets. Notably, Solana (SOL) continued its rally to ~$60 despite FTX rumored to be selling SOL from its estate in early November. 🏛️ Topic of the Week: Interest Rates ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
1