BTC TO 99K OR MORE?Its indeed UPTOBER, BTC Broke the Trend to the upside, I'm excited to see this progress and US Election is on the way. This will be the era of the Crypto Elections. Lets see how this unfolds.
ETF
FBTC: Break Out After 12 Months of Sideways - DCA TradeAll the white lines are buys. My weighted average price per share would be somewhere in the middle. I Dollar Cost Averaged into the position from basically the launch of the product on exchanges earlier this year, Say March 24. The trade looks to finally be playing out.
Long Term Hold position for me, and will add on higher timeframe (1 Day, 3 Day, Weekly) oversold conditions outside a normal standard deviation.
Fun time to be a trader at the moment.
SPY GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅SPY will soon retest a key support level of 564$
So I think that the etf will make a rebound
And go up to retest the supply level above at 580$
LONG🚀
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Two Different Paths For ^VIXweve set lower daily highs aince the last major volatility event, and trended lower weekly to averages. the uptrend is not lost for vix and uvxy threatens to break out of tightening range or wedge/triangle. ive marked out what a test and failure of the trendline would look like, and ive also bar patterned the breakout scenario. im leaning short because i think the election result will be volatile, but have a buy the news impact on broader markets. this is bearish for vix in both scenarios.
normal election volatilityim buying the election outcome for either candidate. heres my reasoning. both are proposing fiscal spending. both are campaigning on tax cuts. both candidates are contributing to a loosening monetary policy and impact on competition to us ai or agi and semiconductors. big tech runs on venture capital and both candidates are leveraging some form of trade war.
here im looking at svxy for clues about how recession proof the s&p500 is to large cap volatility. based on the recency of the top in svxy i dont think were going to begin a broader market stock recession near all time highs without setting a lower quarterly high that fails to bring us a new weekly uptrend. this looks like selling in the leadup to the election which should be bought whenever the index sets a clear rebound level weekly.
ETF SPY weekly (log)Hello everyone,
Weekly chart in logarithmic scale.
The channel is bullish, we are in the upper part of the channel, but I do not see any bullish exaggeration.
The 200-period simple average is bullish in orange on the screen.
In any case, investing in the SPY is a very good investment.
Make your own opinion, before placing an order.
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SPY Pullback: Time to Consider New Swing Long Positions!While AMEX:SPY remains in a strong uptrend, today’s 0.5% decline offers a healthy retracement for swing traders looking to enter long positions at more favorable levels. I don’t expect this pullback to last long or be of significant magnitude, but the short-term weakness is evident, creating an attractive window to buy into the trend. Watch for upcoming signals, as this dip could present a fresh opportunity for the next upward move.
The technicals support this outlook:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 63.85 (Neutral), indicating the market isn’t oversold yet, leaving room for more downside before a potential rebound.
MACD Level: 5.77 (Buy), signaling positive momentum and supporting the overall bullish trend.
Momentum (10): 12.81 (Buy), confirming underlying strength in the uptrend.
Exponential Moving Averages (10, 20, 50, 100, 200): All in “Buy” territory, reinforcing that the uptrend remains intact despite today’s pullback.
However, Stochastic %K (90.36) and Commodity Channel Index (192.15) point to potential short-term exhaustion, suggesting this is a brief pause before the next leg higher. Swing traders should stay alert for a better entry point at any moment.
Action: Stay tuned for a buying opportunity and follow me to see when I make my next move into the trend!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risks, and you should only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin - American elections, future fluctuations of Bitcoin!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel
Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be used to look for Bitcoin buying positions in the two specified demand zones
As long as Bitcoin is within the specified range, you can look for buy and sell positions at the top and bottom of the range
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
SPY BULLISH CONTINUATION AHEAD|LONG|
✅SPY is trading in a
Strong uptrend and the etf
Is now making a local bearish
Correction towards the support
Of 574.40$ from where we will
Be expecting a bullish rebound
And a move up
LONG🚀
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Bitcoin - The return of Trump, the rise of Bitcoin?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel
Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement
Capital withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs or Risk Off Sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be found in the two defined demand zones, looking for Bitcoin buying positions
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
Mt. Gox Delays Repayment Deadline, Bitcoin RalliesMarket Update - October 18, 2024
Mt. Gox has delayed its bitcoin repayment deadline by a year: This delay is viewed as a greenshoot for bitcoin prices, with traders arguing it reduces selling pressure on the broader market. The price of bitcoin was just short of $67,000 by Thursday afternoon.
US spot bitcoin ETFs saw notable net inflows of more than $555 million on Monday, the highest since June: Spot ether ETFs also saw $17 million in inflows, continuing positive momentum for both investment vehicles.
Coinbase is pursuing partial summary judgment to obtain SEC documents about crypto regulation: The regulator has previously delayed in responding to a Freedom of Information request made by the exchange over the same issue.
US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $18.66 million in net outflows on Tuesday, led by Fidelity’s FBTC, which recorded $48.82 million in withdrawals: BlackRock’s IBIT was the only ETF to see inflows, with $39.57 million entering the fund.
Monochrome will introduce Australia's first spot ETH ETF on Tuesday, following on from the launch of its spot Bitcoin ETF in August: Notably, the Monochrome ether ETF will allow both cash and in-kind redemptions, which could garner interest from institutional investors.
🌶️ Topic of the Week: Chiliz (CHZ): Bringing Blockchain and Crypto to Sports Fandom
👉 Read more here
Simplify Market Neutral Equity Long/Short ETF Analysis 10/16/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/16/24 I have no open positions in NYSE: EQLS
Simplify Market Neutral Equity Long/Short ETF
EQLS is a market neutral ETF with equal weighting long and short positions. The fund selects long and short positions based on valuations as well as qualitative factors.
The fund has a 9.5% yield, which is quite impressive for returns in a market neutral way. Capital appreciation in this fund is unlikely and it will perform best during large stock market drops. For me, I see EQLS (and alternatives in general) as an asset allocation decision to lower draw-downs and earn a return that is uncorrelated with market moves.
As long as you understand the risks and downsides of alternatives and are willing to accept a slightly lower return in order to stabilize your portfolio EQLS is one of the better options.
I will be coming out with more research for free here so give me a follow if you enjoyed.
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF Analysis 10/16/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/16/24 I am long Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF NYSE: AVUV
AVUV is a small cap value fund listed on the New York Stock Exchange. They invest in a broad basket of small cap stocks listed in the United States. The fund chooses investments based on qualitative as well as quantitative factors to achieve the best risk adjusted return possible.
Why AVUV?
The primary reason to consider AVUV is as a long term hold alternative to the S&P 500 or other broad U.S. Indexes. Avantis as a brand focuses on factor investing, or the identification of certain characteristics and their ability to outperform or under perform the market.
Of the research available small cap, and value are the 2 most profitable factors over a long enough time period. This is due to the longer runway of small companies, as well as the prices they are bought play into the excess returns. Its worth noting that the value factor implies profitability, setting AVUV apart from indexes like the Russel 2000.
Bearish Reversal in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)The NASDAQ:SMH ETF shows a significant price decline, with a recent drop of 5.40%, as highlighted by the red bar. This price action suggests a bearish reversal after hitting a high of 283.07. The current support level is around 200.49, marking an 18.88% drop from the recent high. Additionally, the Darvas Box indicates a range between 247.16 and 283.07, suggesting potential consolidation in this area before the next directional move. The downward trend aligns with overall market corrections in the semiconductor sector, which could present a short opportunity if price breaks below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors influencing this sector, as well as earnings reports that might impact semiconductor stocks. NASDAQ:ASML
BLK - Strong uptrend is intact with new highs Upward trend, which started from the covid bottom of 2020, continues.
The total assets managed by the company reached 11.5 trillion USD, with an annual increase of 2.4 trillion USD.
The company increased its quarterly revenues by 15% to $5.197 billion, exceeding expectations of $5.007 billion.
Earnings per share for the last quarter were $11.46, above expectations of $10.38.
The shares of the company, which announced a net profit of $1.6 billion in this quarter, exceeded the 2021 high level of $970 and reached $990, and its current market cap is $147 billion.
The stock, which has a dividend yield of 2%, is trading with a price-earnings ratio of 24.
BTCUSD - Bitcoin's good performance will continue in September?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel
Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for Bitcoin sales positions within the specified supply zone
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be sought for Bitcoin buying positions within the defined demand zone
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
NiftyBees Trading Strategy Using EMA LevelsObjective:
This strategy outlines a simple approach to buying NiftyBees based on 50EMA, 100EMA, and 200EMA levels, and how to gradually increase your position.
Key Steps:
50EMA Buy:
Buy 1/3rd of your total planned investment when the price hits the 50EMA.
Reason: Signals short-term bullish momentum.
Example: If your total budget is ₹90,000, buy ₹30,000 worth at 50EMA.
100EMA Buy:
Buy 2/3rd of your total planned investment at the 100EMA.
Add 25% to your previous 50EMA position.
Reason: Shows stronger medium-term momentum.
Example: Buy ₹40,000 at 100EMA and add ₹10,000 (25% more from 50EMA purchase).
200EMA Buy:
Buy 2/3rd of your total planned investment at the 200EMA.
Add 50% to your previous 100EMA position.
Reason: Indicates potential long-term reversal.
Example: Buy ₹60,000 at 200EMA and add ₹20,000 (50% more from 100EMA purchase).
Conclusion:
This strategy helps you build your position in stages, reducing risk and improving your average price over time. It uses key EMA levels to guide when and how much to invest, helping you benefit from market dips while maintaining a disciplined approach.
MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF)... Time to BUY?
MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF)
Weekly TF shows price has pulled back into the +FVG after displacing above the intermediate swing high, completing an External to Internal move. That high intersects the +FVG nicely as confluence of support.
Daily TF shows a Daily +FVG nested within the Weekly +FVG, serving as more confluence of support.
The idea here is if the +FVG holds, price will seek the buy side liquidity highlighted. This would be an Internal to External liquidity movement.
The local high at **48.00** is nice round number to draw price. **50.00** is the longer term draw on liquidity.
*The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF offers equal weight exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” stocks – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. MAGS is the first-ever ETF to track the Magnificent Seven.
SPY LONG FROM SUPPORT|
✅SPY is trading in an uptrend
But the price was making a
Local correction, however
The horizontal support of 564.00$
Is ahead and after the retest
We will be expecting a
Further move up
LONG🚀
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Bitcoin's good performance will continue in September?!Bitcoin is located between EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading above the $60,000 level
Risk on sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for Bitcoin sales positions within the specified supply range
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 63 thousand dollars
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
Rule of 160: History Predicts Start Of Bull-Run This Week!In this analysis I want to take a closer look at previous bull-cycles and Bitcoin's behaviour in the months following the halving.
The vertical yellow line is the date of the halving. The purple rectangle is the price action of the 160 days following the halving.
We can very clearly see a few interesting similarities between the last three cycles:
- The price pumps prior to the halving.
- The price trades sideways for 160 days after the halving.
- The "real" bull-run starts after the sideways price action has ended.
If we follow the Rule of 160, the start of the next big bull-run would be somewhere around 27 september, which is this week!
I'm aware that market conditions are different now than they were back then. Still, BTC is a very cyclical asset and has historically followed calendar based trends.
There's data to suggest that we have to come down (check my previous posts), but there's also data like this that suggests that the price will increase.
Time will tell. Interested to hear your opinions!
Bitcoin - Where will Bitcoin go after the interest rate cut?Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading above the $60,000 level
Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETFs has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for Bitcoin buying opportunities by maintaining the drawn upward trend line and not breaking it
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk Off Sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Selling will be justified after a valid break of the specified support area
Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached 60K$!Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel
Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETFs has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for buying positions after Bitcoin corrects to the specified demand zone
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk Off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Sales from the specified supply zone will be rewarded with appropriate risk
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
