Get started

ETF

Is SPY ETF set for down day tomorrow?My SPY analysis is pretty much aligned with the CBOE:SPX index Here is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart are the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5). Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 433 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 435.20. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 436.71, 435, and 3rd quartile at 432.5. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 436.48, median at 434.83, and the third quartile was near 432.60. THIS WEEK If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 424.19 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 433. A drop to 433 tomorrow would only be a 1.16% loss. A steeper loss in the main index could see the AMEX:SPY low in the 432.80 region. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go lower tomorrow. For now, I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 429 but still likely to occur midday Friday. THEORY BUSTERS A rise above 439.48 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 441.18 would place us back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockSignaler
3
Against the grain - BitcoinControversial. People don't like it when opinions don't align with their own beliefs. It's human nature, however - even when the obvious is smacking them in the face, they still want to reinforce and find support for what is inevitably wrong. I've talked before about the possibility of Government or WEF being behind Bitcoin. It would not surprise me one bit. It's an immutable ledger and all of the 3 letter agencies around the globe can't find the inventor... Secondly, people believe it to stand for freedom. Yet with the KYC and AML regulations, it takes nearly as much paperwork to own Bitcoin as it does to buy a house. (nearly) It's not like the FBI can seize it - oh wait, yes they can. Its not like China can limit the use, hmmm OK maybe. Binance will never stop people from withdrawing their own funds. Oh yeah that too. The issue is for me, is - CLEARLY there is an opportunity, even for me one of the lucky ones, been a Bitcoiner a long, long time. What does it need to thrive? well, almost the opposite of the wild west mentality seen today. Gone are the days where average Joe can own a few thousand coins. it's more likely that they will be spending around $5,000. Some of course more, a lot will have less to invest. Volatility means the wild price swings can make it profitable whilst using leverage. But to make it grow, it needs stability. Regulation will assist to attract larger operators. On that note - larger players does not always mean price goes up. A few days later, Valkyrie joins the stage. Now this is actually a good thing, these types of investors have a 15 year fund vision usually. So it doesn't mean - they join the party and the price sky rockets tomorrow. Clearly... The issue right now is we have Mooon Cloooowns attending these blockchain/crypto conferences, it just shows how immature the market is currently. These ETF's are not designed for retail to make a fortune, their there for the Elite to take more from retail. You have muppets calling for 100k on every post. Sheep following along, just as I said at the top of this article. They want to reinforce their own WRONG belief. Or maybe its sympathy, "someone else knows how I feel, we can relate"? I don't know what it is to be honest, but it's clearly not healthy or profitable. The one thing I have said time and time again, is the beauty of Bitcoin becoming institutionalised is that it makes it less volatile and easier to read and analyse. The more regulation and solid foundation it has, the more profitable for day trading it becomes. Of course, it is not what the average retailer wants to hear trading their micro account and hoping to become a millionaire in one trade. But for Bitcoin to move beyond current highs and into the 100k level or more, it needs to establish a good foothold of it's current accumulation. I saw a post yesterday saying 2025 forecast price $925,000 - Now to give that some real perspective. At it's current All Time High, it had a market cap of $1.3 Trillion What kind of market cap would you get with a price of $925,000 per coin? Do the math and help me understand where the additional several TRILLION comes from... OK so now for some logic. People like Saylor have made publicly their position. Post available here So of course, with that much weight other institutional players will know the fair value levels without the research. Price can gravitate towards these levels allowing the accumulation weighted average to stand out like a sore thumb! Back in the day, I got introduced to Bitcoin, not as a trader but as a tech investor. Needless to say, I had a nice little run. Unfortunately as a trader I wasn't able to post due to some money management non disclosures around tech investments made. So it wasn't until the obligations passed I could post on this topic publicly. The obvious signs were clear from the migration from a fun thing and toes in the water of many angels and VC's - into a more tradable asset class. Fast forward a little and the re-accumulation only highlighted the involvement of much, much larger operators. I talked about this on the @TradingView show with Stefan and how the composite man plays his part in the more established markets. During the move, the re-accumulation showed signs of the control and the future direction as well as give a clear indication as to where the cap would likely be. Of course, it played out as expected and against popular belief we were off to the moon. I shared the logic for the drop. This was the first set of signs that Bitcoin was here to stay and becoming more interesting with each passing swing. As we dropped to the target level. Yes that too. Marked up months in advance... The next move up was ugly, so - what did that mean? Well, it simply meant again, we were not likely to see 100k or 250k or some arbitrary figure plucked out of the sky by people who have no clue how to do proper analysis. CASE IN POINT. We could then anticipate another capped move up, seeking liquidity. I shared why this would be the case back in August before the November drop. The expectation was for the price to drop down 3-4 in Elliott Wave terms and rise 4-5 before dropping on that liquidity grab above the old highs. Then of course, we did just that. Some other obvious moves started to appear in the price action and again just reinforces the institutional control of the Bitcoin price. So what is the expectation, as I have said in most of my recent Tradingview streams. It's a larger scale accumulation. For the price to break above All Time Highs, it needs to garner it's position. The higher the price you expect, the longer sideways we are likely to go. (although it's not as simple as that). I get sick and tired of price predications like 100k next week or 250k EOY. Don't fall for the BS. Take your time and do your own due diligence. Anyways, over & out. Take it easy! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
BTC Whale deposited 4,451 Bitcoin on Binance equivalent to $133MThe recent significant whale move in the Bitcoin market, particularly involving the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL, raises concerns about potential downside risks for the cryptocurrency. Here are the key factors that might signal a bearish outlook for Bitcoin: Market Manipulation Speculation: The sudden deposit of 4,451 BTC (worth $133,689,815 USD) to Binance from the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL suggests large-scale movements by a single entity, commonly referred to as a whale. Such significant transactions can trigger speculations of market manipulation, as the actions of whales can influence Bitcoin's price in the short term. Traders and investors may become wary of sudden price swings and might choose to stay on the sidelines, leading to increased market volatility. Potential Sell-Off Pressure: The fact that the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL is currently holding 15,604 BTC (worth $467.84 million USD) raises concerns about a potential sell-off. If the whale decides to liquidate a substantial portion of its holdings, it could exert significant downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Large-scale sell-offs often trigger panic among retail investors, leading to cascading price declines. Increased Uncertainty: Whale activity of this magnitude can create uncertainty among market participants, particularly regarding the future direction of Bitcoin's price. Investors may question whether the recent price appreciation is sustainable, and concerns over the potential for a market correction could lead to reduced buying interest. Heightened uncertainty may result in decreased trading volumes and overall market sentiment turning bearish. Regulatory Scrutiny: Large-scale whale activity in the cryptocurrency market can attract regulatory attention. Authorities may closely monitor such transactions for signs of market manipulation or illegal activities. Any regulatory intervention or negative statements could add to the bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, leading to price pullbacks. Potential Chain Reaction: Whale moves of this magnitude often spark chain reactions, as other market participants observe the actions of major players and follow suit. This could lead to a domino effect of selling pressure, exacerbating the downside risks for Bitcoin. For now I`m bearish on BT Bitcoin. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Short
by TopgOptions
4
Conspiracy or something moreI wanted to post this post to get comments and thoughts of others here. Have you ever seen the film "In Time" ?? Imagine you switch out the countdown timer for Bitcoin, after all it won't be long and everyone can have them embedded under the skin. If you haven't seen the film, here's a CHATGPT explanation summary. OK so what does this have to do with trading or Bitcoin? Blackrock and the ETF's is a big play for Bitcoin, but maybe not in the way majority of retail seem to think it is. When you really stop to think - let me know your thoughts. Also latest Tradingview stream earlier. www.tradingview.com Have a good one guys! Well, as a long time cyber security investor (patents in the space also) I find it hard to believe the powers that be, can't seem to figure out one who created it and two how to regulate it and other crypto. It's a bit odd given it's an immutable ledger tech. So What I wanted to see, is what other people think - both good and bad, pros or cons, ups and downs?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
MSTR next FTX bubble MicroStrategy owns 152,800 BTC bought for $4.53 billion.The company has $2.2 billion of debt issued by MicroStrategy, the parent company, consisting of $500 million of 6.125% senior secured notes due 2028 (the “secured notes”) and two series of convertible notes, one maturing in 2025 and the other in 2027 (together, the “convertible notes”). The secured notes are guaranteed by MicroStrategy’s subsidiaries (other than MacroStrategy and its subsidiaries) and are secured by substantially all of MicroStrategy’s assets, which include its software business and, as of Sept. 30, 2022, a total of 14,890 bitcoin. Although MacroStrategy and its subsidiaries are technically restricted subsidiaries under MicroStrategy’s secured notes, in many ways they have the freedom of an unrestricted subsidiary, including their ability to incur debt secured by their bitcoin holdings.MacroStrategy is carved out from the limitations of the debt covenant, so it can incur unlimited debt. In addition, any crypto assets held by MacroStrategy at the time the secured notes were issued are carved out of the liens covenant; as a result, MacroStrategy may incur unlimited debt secured by the bitcoin that it held on the date the secured notes were issued. The fact is that FTX and Alameda were created by one person - Sam Bankman-Freed. And from the very beginning, Alameda served as a liquidity provider on FTX. Alameda wallets interacted with FTX even before the launch in May 2019 and apart from other addresses, it was the only clearly identifiable counterparty. In 2020, the chief engineer of the FTX crypto exchange made secret changes to the exchange software. They allowed Alameda Research, owned by Sam Bankman-Fried, to continue to borrow funds from FTX regardless of the value of the collateral. Weller said the prospect of such a fund coming to market after about a decade of trying by a number of issuers could pose a "big risk" for MicroStrategy. “Many investors are buying MicroStrategy shares as a widely available proxy to gain exposure to bitcoin,” he said. “But if a simple, low-fee alternative emerges, much of the current demand for the stock could dry up, leaving a costly, slow-growing operating company to manage a cumbersome, unstable balance sheet.” The Spot Bitcoin ETF, if approved, “won’t offer the same leverage returns as MicroStrategy,” Saylor said during the company’s Aug. 1 earnings announcement. However, he acknowledged that a subset of institutional investors would choose Bitcoin ETFs to participate in this space. I'll draw an analogy. Think of the rest yourself. The debtor company has doubled its capital. This is Carl's air, emptiness! Bitcoin-ETF no longer needs an intermediary in the form of this company, which can repeat the fate of FTX. Half of the Bitcoins will have to be sold on the market if the Bitcoin ETF spot is approved, because 2.2 billion debts and unlimited lending to yourself may end. Even now, investors will have a reason to doubt Michael Saylor and withdraw their funds, which will deprive the company of reliability. Will he repeat the fate of Sam? Time will show.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by almatradebusiness
1
14/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $30265.2 Last weeks low: $29472.7 Midpoint: $28680.1 BTC continues to trade a very tight range as it has for many weeks now. 30k continues to be the resistance area, the previous weeks midpoint is the local resistance as its been tested for the last few days and cannot reclaim above. As usual that midpoint from the previous week is important to the direction of this week. We've had some talk about ETF's recently, the former SEC chief has said the SEC will not approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. Personally I believe the SEC will not want to approve an ETF, however eventually I think players like Blackrock will get what they want, they always do and I wouldn't be surprised if it miraculously gets approved around the halving event, and you can be sure Blackrock and the other big players like Valkyrie would have already bought a large chunk of BTC before the supply halves at much lower prices. Really that's what every trader/investor is waiting for because at the current moment there really isn't a lot of money/volume at all in the market. The start of this half of the year is evidence enough for that. Reserving capital for the big moves that come later down the line is essential and avoiding being chopped up by the market is a big priority.
by ProR35
HYXU: Resistance Break & RestestTechnical Analysis: HYXU (iShares International High Yield Bond ETF) has been slowly grinding upward since it's October '22 lows. After almost 17 months beneath the Bull Market Support Band (20w SMA, 21w EMA), it crossed over the the upside in November of last year and has shown significant gains in the last 10 months. The assets last big push came at the significant resistance level at $47.50, which it finally flipped after 3 failed attempts. Having just completed a successful retest of the level as support, I anticipate a clean move up to $49, then $51.25, based on prior S/R levels. Fundamental Analysis: As we've all had our eyes on the Fed for the last year and a half, I'm sure most of you know that interest rates are at their highest levels in roughly 22 years. By doing this, the Fed has pulled a large portion of liquidity out of the bond market with enticing, low-risk Treasury yields. However, as we approach their terminal rate of ~550 BPs, and as the high cost of money starts to impede businesses' ability to invest and grow, I anticipate a rotation out of stocks and into fixed income investments. The most readily accessible of which, for retail investors, are corporate bond ETFs such as HYXU. With a yield of ~6.5%, it remains more than competitive with even the highest paying treasury, and offers investors a liquid alternative to locking up their funds for months or years. Feel free to post your questions, comments, concerns, qualms, quandaries, contributions, or conversation below! **Disclaimer** This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. Individual circumstances and current events are critical to sound investment planning; anyone wishing to act on this article should consult with his or her advisor.
CBOE:HYXULong
by NotSoDegen
Chainlink Update (The same playbook )Since October 2022 I have been getting things wrong with chainlink a lot , pretty much the only coin where I missed the target and time over and over . Most of the time its easier to trade Litecoin because it actually has organic movement. Chainlink has not been moving organically in my opinion , there is no historical price movement that we can compare this sideways movement for over 400 days. For me atleast it was looking like this was some sort of wyckoff accumulation period and we just had a spring event. In my previous TA I tried to give traders a heads up that this was highly likely a coordinated move to get Chainlink at much lower prices. It was very clear to me that this was the case just based on the wave of news and timing of the flash crash structure that came shortly after. Its the same playbook over and over if its not a ETF to bring price up , its SEC hammer to bring it down or "China ban" or Elon musk selling btc holdings for tesla etc etc you get the picture. So where are we now , still under the 1/2 Gann Fan , at 6.8 dollars Chainlink will be over the 1/2 Gann Fann , lets see if its start closing above it that would signal a big change for LINK in terms of market structure. We also have this very nice support line here which until now I didn't notice , seems to be bouncing off this support for a long time. As I posted in my previous post of LINK , my indicators have been flashing bullish divergence and 5 wave counts across the board. This EW count suggests wave 5 is in and target is just under 8/1 Gann Fan , very interesting. and finally we have the most important Chainlink chart , the LINK/BTC dominance last LINK TA I talked about potential hidden bullish divergence if it bounced on this trendline. We got that bounce. So to conclude here , never sell your Chainlink at these levels , there is clearly big things happening in the background , when a coin has coordinated attacks to dump price and goes into some sort of Wyckoff accumulation its extremely bullish long term it might not seem that way short term and its been a long road for LINK holders but the play in a bear/sideways market is always to load up on fundamentals .
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Sporia
21
QQQ The AI-Powered Future: A Bullish Case for Long-Term Options If you haven`t bought the Santa Rally: or my 2023 forecast: Then investing in long-term options on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with a strike price of $420 and an expiration date of 2024-6-21 presents a compelling opportunity for bullish investors. The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and the ever-growing technology sector is set to ignite the next revolution, propelling QQQ to outperform the S&P 500 and deliver substantial returns, in my opinion. Now let's explore the factors that make this investment thesis a promising one. AI-Driven Technological Advancements: AI is undoubtedly the most transformative technology of our era. It has already revolutionized various industries and continues to penetrate new sectors, creating endless opportunities for innovation and growth. Companies listed on the Nasdaq 100 are at the forefront of AI adoption, leveraging its capabilities to enhance their products, services, and operations. As AI-driven technologies continue to disrupt traditional models and unlock new revenue streams, QQQ's constituent companies are poised to benefit significantly. Tech Sector Dominance in the Nasdaq 100: The Nasdaq 100 predominantly comprises technology-focused companies that have demonstrated remarkable growth potential and resilience. With the ongoing global digitization and the increasing demand for technology-based solutions, the Nasdaq 100 is well-positioned to outperform the broader market. As the technology sector continues to flourish, investors can expect these companies to deliver above-average returns over the long term. I believe QQQ will reach $450 by the end of 2024. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TopgOptions
Short opportunity in Nasdaq QQQYou can see the top and bottoms curves, top curve is peaking and bottom curve is flattening. Risk is low to the upside with daily stop losses following the curve. Conservative 3.5% to the downside in next 15 days. We also see double divergences in top and bottom trends on the Relative Trend Index, RTI could give third peak in next 8 days to confirm. Below 363 we have an acceleration to the downside of 5-7% additional, for a total downside of 7-10% in next 3-4 weeks. I have a short position in QQQ currently.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by dilille010
When Alt season? When moon? When rocket emojis?We are yet to see first, a pullback by BTC coupled with stock market correction and destruction of Alts. Capitulation by both price and time. Notice in prior cycle with 714 days of red and current 574 days of red at most recent bottom of TOTAL3. NOTE: 2020 Feb-March has been omitted as a black swan (anomaly) Recession is looming and true scale to be surfaced. Bankruptcies and commercial real estate pain needs to pass. FED cannot pre-maturely ease monetary policy otherwise a wage-price spiral is at risk and unraveling of inflation expectation demands. I've mentioned Blackrock ETD and it's CEO going on CNBC, the point I'll re-iterate is that if markets are now bullish as they make it seem, why haven't we broke past $32k Bitcoin decisively yet? Insert meme: "IT'S A TRAP!"
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Short
by Muri001
1
Smart money bear trap thesis?Tags: Blackrock Bitcoin ETF, Inflation, PCE, FED, Wage-price spiral, BTC.D, ETH/BTC Could we be mimicking 1970's market? So last PCI reading came 3% but core CPI is still high and Core PCE (FED's preferred inflation measure) has been sticky in 4.5% area for past several months. Whilst inflation expectations have been tamed by FEDs continued "We remain focused on getting inflation back to 2%." This message must be maintained and a recession is inevitable. Look at 10Y3M yields and 10Y2Y bond yields. We have real pain yet to come. So headline inflation is being curved down and celebrated however the next step is the risk of a wage-price spiral which is being priced in and expected to also not become a threat once unemployment rises but the job markets are remaining resilient. Therefore, the FED will hold interest rates at 5.25-5.50 bps until inflation is confidently curbed. We have not yet seen fear in markets from recessionary risks. Everyone is thinking it will be a mild one however the future is hard to foresee and there are underlying financial risks not in the limelight yet. Now, you have the market context we shall dive into the charts!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Muri001
1
BITCOIN TO $300,000 BY SEPT 2025Bitcoin LOG Cheat Sheet! Vertical Colors. Orange = Halving Green = Bullish Highs Red = Bearish Lows This is an estimate on the trajectory of a price forecast. Nobody can predict the future, and charting isn’t guaranteed that the past helps predict the future. This is all about what ifs. Could the next alltime high be $300,000 by September 2025? This is just perspective. Stretch the dates to see the dates, again its based on past history. No guarantee.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2208604
2
We are Eventually Going to Make it Bitcoin MinersHOLDINGS: SMSN LI 80 86,080.00 TSM 711 53,723.16 NVDA 577 87,300.10 RIOT 26,791 121,363.23 AMD 1,146 86,351.10 ARBK 101,865 424,777.05 BITF 225,762 264,141.54 88,278 123,589.20 CIFR 98,267 149,365.84 CLSK 97,259 393,898.95 19,309 31,087.49 DGHI 89,753 94,240.65 DMGI CN 607,264 116,409.92 GREE 26,792 66,712.08 HIVE 77,495 250,308.85 HUT 58,605 80,874.90 INTC 2,394 88,554.06 IREN 38,126 125,815.80 MARA 12,540 70,851.00 MIGI 105,920 112,275.20 SATO CN 116,864 20,162.10 SDIG 72,314 125,826.36 27,681 38,753.40 Cash & Other 2,826 2,826.01 The Fund is an actively-managed exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) that will invest at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowings for investment purposes) in securities of companies that derive at least 50% of their revenue or profits from bitcoin mining operations and/or from providing specialized chips, hardware and software or other services to companies engaged in bitcoin mining. The Fund will not directly invest in bitcoin, or indirectly through the use of derivatives or through investments in funds or trusts that hold bitcoin.
NASDAQ:WGMILong
by noam_chom
Key Drivers of the Market - A Deep DiveHello everyone! Today we will talk about five different important concepts. Many things are happening in markets, so I will create similar reports to help people understand why things are how they are. This will be my first report, so it might be a bit harder to go through, especially because on Tradingview, I can't easily share economic data or random non-Tradingview charts, so I will try to make each concept as simple as possible. Positioning 1) Positioning in markets appears to be quite extreme. Looking at the CoT long/short data for hedge fund positioning, we can get a pretty good sense of whether speculators are long or short. Overall, the market remains short on stocks and bonds. Regarding bond data, it is possible that the positioning is like this for other reasons, which doesn't mean they are bullish. As contrarians, we usually want to go against most speculators, but sometimes the speculators take one position for reasons other than making a directional bet (maybe they are hedged). Another significant market to look at is the energy market, and more specifically, oil, which in my opinion, is very close to transitioning back into a bull market. I am expecting one more shakeout here, with a dip toward 55-60$. I think one more shakeout for oil to take out all the lows (hunt stop loss), and speculators will fully turn short. Speculators have been cutting their longs for a year and are almost about to turn short for the first time in many years. Inflation 2) Expected inflation in the next CPI print is around 3% YoY and 0.3% MoM, potentially influenced by recent commodity spikes. These short-lived spikes could affect June's print, as some food-related commodities had a little rally. I believe inflation could come back with a vengeance, as there are too many potential issues with producing several materials and products. These issues could be exacerbated due to deglobalization and climate change (not the climate getting hotter, but colder). Truflation shows 2.3% YoY inflation, inflation expectations are at 2.3%, and interest rates are between 3.7% and 5.25% across the yield curve. My main view is that inflation will trend lower for a little longer, and its downtrend could end with a deflationary spike, as current real rates are substantially positive. It's even possible that we will get negative CPI MoM prints in Q3-Q4, but inflationary pressures will probably resume once we are done with that. Many argue that core inflation is sticky and too high, and I believe it might stay elevated for a while, but eventually, I think it will start falling. My view on inflation mainly has to do with outright shortages and not with money printing. The current disinflationary trend seen across most countries will probably continue for a little longer as we haven't seen substantial money printing for a while, while interest rate hikes are starting to affect consumers negatively. The biggest issue I see is that commodity producers are struggling and face severe problems due to green policies, deglobalization, and climate change. Another important point is that OPEC+ is about to cut 1-2m barrels/day of production, which means oil could spike as demand remains relatively strong. One of the reasons I think the biggest inflationary threat comes from the supply side (goods/services) is that Japan has had lower inflation than the US, despite keeping rates at 0. China didn't raise rates either and has been pumping liquidity into the system, as well as cutting rates, and yet inflation there is almost 0%. It shows that inflation has come down independently, with markets slowly shorting through various imbalances, not because interest rates increased. At this stage, higher rates might actually have the opposite effect than the one intended. Why? Because of the massive debts at the government level, which are being inflated even further as governments borrow at higher rates. Housing 3) The housing market remains strong, and a deficit exists. More supply will be coming online over time, but there are no signs of weakness or that the supply won't be able to be absorbed by the market. Many people are still waiting for rates and prices to drop in order to buy a house, while those with a mortgage are not selling their houses because they don't want to get a more expensive loan. Therefore we essentially have a balance in the market, with new houses and defaults being absorbed by those with cash and those willing to get an expensive mortgage. Rents have not gone up YoY but seem to be about to trend higher again. As there is still a lot of cash in the market and the US government keeps spending, it's reasonable to expect rents to stay flat or slowly tick higher, even if interest rate hikes are starting to affect the economy. Some countries are really suffering from higher interest rates, as most people have variable-rate mortgages; however, the US is in a better situation as most had their mortgages fixed at low rates. So far, it looks like banks and central banks are taking a loss on all the mortgages issued or refinanced during 2020 and 2021, and this effect won't be reverted any time soon. GDP 4) Q1 GDP growth was revised higher at 2% (from 1.4%), showing resilience in the US economy amidst recession fears. Despite growth in the US markets, concerns over a recession remain. As the US government keeps spending at a high pace, a recession will probably be delayed; without that meaning, it will never arrive. Interest rates have been rising, and the Fed wants to hike rates once or twice again. The Fed will likely intervene to support the economy in 1-2 years. As the deficit grows and rates increase, within the next few years, the government will have absorbed all excess liquidity trapped in the RRP or banks. That means that the Fed will then be forced to start buying bonds. The Fed is currently losing over 50B annually because it has to pay high rates to those that deposit at the Fed, which is effectively direct money printing. With so much government debt, the Fed can't raise rates much higher without adding this inflationary component. Although unemployment and bankruptcies are trending higher, the market is showing resilience. As stated above, the US economy is the most resilient, while many other countries are suffering heavily. What has been very helpful is that so far, we had strong oil production despite the war in Ukraine, while the US was releasing a lot of barrels from SPR. This strengthened consumption and boosted the economy. One important data point that proves that the US hasn't been in a recession is that the Travel Numbers of people flying in the US are at ATHs. How could someone call for a recession with these numbers? It's possible that interest rate hikes and all the printing in the US, along with a strong dollar, helped the US consumer to stay in relatively good shape. How bad do bankruptcies and unemployment get, and when? I don't know. I believe that the yield curve will eventually be right, and we will get a recession, but it's hard to call for one. Although lots of data points to the US being in a recession or close to getting into one, we haven't had proper confirmation for a downturn. Maybe we have been in a mild recession, and that's why the market is rallying so much, as people feared something awful, and this hasn't played out. Stocks 5) Stocks seem to remain in a bull market. After hitting the targets that I mentioned in some of my previous ideas, they had a mini-correction. I never turned fully bearish, but I thought at once, the SPX got at 4450 and the NDX at 15200, the market might have topped. This hasn't played out, and I must admit that the market looks bullish here. I can't say anything with certainty yet, but I'd avoid shorting or being all out. There are still many signals that point to higher stock prices. Apple just had a massive breakout and looks strong. Now at a 3T valuation, which seems too much, but when someone thinks that Apple is one of those companies that are essentially powering a 500T financial system, along with its growth potential with AI, then 3T doesn't seem that much. Although stocks seem expensive relative to the current GDP, let's not forget that AI will boost global GDP massively over the next few years. That means that tech companies like Microsoft and Google will keep expanding. Also, let's not forget that unprofitable tech deflated last year and hasn't recovered yet, so a lot of garbage got washed out and isn't a drag on the market. Finally, many people are missing something important: leverage didn't fuel this rally. The market deleveraged massively in 2022 and is now free from excess leverage. If this rally was driven by leverage, it would be fragile, and a reversal could occur at any moment. Summary To sum things up and add a few final touches... The main things leading the market are: NDX is a monopoly, AI, stock buybacks, passive investing, and government spending. It's improbable that these factors will cease to exist, and things will turn ugly immediately after the best first half the Nasdaq 100 has ever had. Sentiment might be changing and leaning toward bullish, but I am not seeing anything that's seriously worth paying attention to. Sure, maybe we get another little correction, but nothing more than that. The market looks very strong. Some leading indicators even show that liquidity and financial conditions will improve from here. I believe that too many people are stuck looking at interest rates but forget how bad the government deficits are and that the only way to keep moving forward is to print more money and accelerate growth and consumption. The NDX (Nasdaq 100) has broken above its double top in Q1 2022 and could easily sweep its Q4 2021 double top next. The index is just 11% away from new ATHs, which it could achieve in 2023.
FX:NAS100Long
by BitcoinMacro
Bitcoin and Beyond: An Analysis of Crypto Market TrendsHello everyone. A few weeks ago, I shared a few successful ideas about Coinbase, Grayscale, and the possibility of an ETF being approved. I also shared several interesting plays that have been doing very well, so I would like to dig deeper into them and check their progress. This idea will be a comprehensive look at crypto's evolving landscape. An in-depth analysis of current trends, fundamentals, and data, where I will explain why I remain bullish on crypto and Bitcoin in particular. There is also a decent chance that an alt season has begun. We will explore why the future looks bright while examining any potential issues and going through the current price action. So pour yourself a nice drink, and let's get into it! 1) Coinbase has been doing incredibly well. Why? A few reasons... a) multiple ETFs have been filled and are waiting for approval by the SEC, most of which have Coinbase as their main exchange/partner. b) The SEC was expected to sue Coinbase, so it was a sell the rumor - buy the news event. Once the SEC sued Coinbase, the stock capitulated and bounced immediately. However, the SEC's case looks weak, and Coinbase could win. c) Most other exchanges in the US have been suffering, with Bittrex shutting down and BinanceUS potentially shutting down too. d) Coinbase has launched a derivatives platform both in the US and abroad and its own Layer 2 protocol. Therefore more potential profits will come to the exchange. 2) Microstrategy is also doing great. Like Coinbase, the stock went through a lot of FUD, and many thought it would be forced to sell some of its coins if Bitcoin's price fell below a certain level. Now this is all in the past. Microstrategy's business is booming, and they keep buying lots of bitcoins. Not only are they buying, but they even repaid their loan to Silvergate at a 30% discount. Coinbase also repaid part of its loans at a steep discount because interest rates are so much higher and crypto so much lower. Both stocks fell more than 90% from their ATHs and went sideways for nearly 14 months. They both bottomed in May along with the Terra collapse and had a secondary low that was essentially an SFP, as they follow US tech companies as they were capitulating. Now both are also being heavily bid by players in the traditional space (TradFi), as these players don't have easy access to crypto until an ETF gets launched; hence they are looking for proxy trades. MSTR seems to be doing better as it is essentially a leveraged bet on Bitcoin due to the fact that it has taken massive loans to buy Bitcoin at low-interest rates and isn't exposed to altcoins like Coinbase is. Finally, MSTR's price partially filled the gap that opened in 2020 since the time it announced it bought Bitcoin. 3) GBTC's discount is closing. As I had said multiple times before, Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust would outperform Bitcoin. I had been saying that buying GBTC at a 40-50% discount is a good idea, and those that bought GBTC are now beating BTC by 40-50% and could gain another 30-40% as the discount closes even further. The main reason behind this idea was that the SEC would probably lose against Grayscale. The SEC hasn't been able to explain why it hasn't approved an ETF, and its case has many holes. The same holds for many of their actions and failures to protect retail investors. Approving an ETF before the elections would help them cleanse all their past mistakes. The massive discount that GBTC had hurt millions of investors directly and indirectly, and the only way to properly restore balance would be to approve an ETF. Once Blackrock decided to step in, it was game over. Why? Because BlackRock has an incredible track record of having its ETFs approved (575-1). If one ETF is approved, all ETFs have to be approved, which means that, finally, GBTC will be converted to an ETF. GBTC could easily rally, fill the gap at 24, pause there for a while, and then continue higher. 4) BITO was the futures ETF the SEC approved in October 2021, and it was yet another awful product. It was horrible for investors, as it has underperformed Bitcoin by more than 30%. The only real usefulness of that ETF has been to help me trade Bitcoin better. How? Because of its gaps. The CME futures, the BITO ETF, and GBTC have been forming/creating special patterns which could give an edge to someone based on the types of gaps on the chart. As BITO slowly becomes irrelevant, CME futures and all the spot ETFs will play a more important role in price action, so tracking their gaps could be a handy tool for those that actively trade. What BITO indicates at the moment is that Bitcoin could have another dip toward 28800 and then go higher because of the major gap it has lower. Overall, there are many more gaps to the upside than the downside; hence, I expect prices to go higher soon, as these gaps act like little magnets. 5) As the traditional market is closed tomorrow, it will be interesting to see what the crypto market does as it trades 24/7. The CME futures will probably trade tomorrow, as they've also been trading today. Usually, the market opens for a few hours on July 3rd and is closed on July 4th, but futures tend to be open pretty much on all holidays. Bitcoin is trading near its May-June 2022 local tops and looks super strong. Based on my analysis, the most immediate targets are 35300 and 37500, as indicated by the CME gaps. However, I think that the fair value of Bitcoin is closer to 37-40k, and with an ETF, it could easily shoot up toward 50k. As seen in the spot chart, many FVGs are waiting to be filled to the upside, and it's unlikely that any will be filled to the downside. The capitulation at 15.5k last November was quite intense, and the market has essentially formed a massive inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a target near 49-50k. The current uptrend is very clean and technically perfect. It first swept the Nov 2020 low that led to the big breakout, then tested 20k during the USDC-SVB crisis (bottomed right at the 2017 ATHs), and finally tested the 25k breakout zone during the SEC lawsuits. Currently testing the 30-31.5k resistance, and it will most likely eventually break above it. It also closed Q2 above 30k, which was a very strong close! 6) Finally, I want to talk broadly about Ethereum, Bitcoin's Dominance, and my view on crypto assets. Ethereum has filled its CME gap and paused there. It was normal for the price to dip slightly today in USD and BTC terms. Overall, ETHUSD isn't as clean as BTCUSD. I wouldn't say I like that it has too many FVGs (gaps/inefficiencies) open and so many double bottoms. Essentially there is much-untapped liquidity, which makes it look a bit unhealthy. However, ETHBTC seems to have bottomed. I waited months to see the FVG at 0.0608 filled, and once it did so, the market almost immediately bounced. It has now reclaimed support and looks fairly strong. If ETHBTC has bottomed, then potentially, crypto broadly has bottomed vs BTC. Ethereum is the leader of the rest and is also in a powerful position. Bitcoin might lead the ETF race, but an Ethereum ETF will eventually emerge. So far, Ethereum has many advantages over Bitcoin, like fee burning, lower inflation, more adoption, and staking. As more and more investors stake, then there will be less selling pressure on the market. Ethereum could be seen as green tech by many investors, which will also give it an extra boost. What remains to be seen is whether the SEC will deem staking and Ethereum as securities, which means that an Ethereum ETF might take longer. At the moment, many ALTBTC pairs look quite bullish and bottomed out. However, ETHBTC has gotten rejected at resistance, and Bitcoin's dominance remains in a strong uptrend. The current BTCD (BTC.D) pullback doesn't look sufficient to conclude whether we are in an alt season. So far, it's been positive that many crypto assets are dipping or rallying along with Bitcoin, as the worst for them to be dipping when BTC is rallying. In my opinion, there is a decent chance altcoins capitulated, as the selling from many bankrupt firms or crypto delistings has already occurred. For example selling from Voyager, Celsius, Bakkt, Revolut, and Robinhood are either priced in or has occurred. These customers have gotten or will get BTC, ETH, or USD back, which can convert into other crypto assets. To start wrapping things up, I want to mention the many crucial events to look out for. a) The return of FTX, b) the legal court cases between the SEC and all the crypto firms, c) bankruptcies, and d) the distribution of BTC from Mt Gox and the US government. The return of FTX would be very bullish for crypto and Bitcoin in particular, as FTX mostly has smaller coins and cash. The SEC will probably lose some cases against Ripple, Coinbase, and Grayscale, which will shape the future of crypto. Remember that a lot of the bearish news is already priced in to a large extent, and very few events can truly shake crypto (not Bitcoin). As these policies and bankruptcies have disproportionally hurt smaller crypto assets, they could be the ones that benefit the most once the tide turns. Bitcoin investors and traders should be most aware that Mt Gox will return about 140k BTC and 500m in cash, and the US government has about 90k BTC to sell and 120k BTC to return to Bitfinex. GBTC has 635k BTC, which will come back to the market through the ETF conversion (so far, they've been locked out of the market). BlockOne has 164k BTC, which was raised during the ICO period and might eventually distribute to EOS holders. All these events might be short-term bearish for Bitcoin, but long term, we think they will sort out imbalances in the market. At the same time, these events will probably push capital and liquidity into altcoins, so rather than panicking and selling, it's better to look for opportunities in the rest of the crypto market. In conclusion, this market will provide multiple opportunities to the bulls, even though it will be a bumpy ride. I don't want to say with certainty that the SEC will lose all its cases, as I think many crypto assets, if not the majority, are securities. However, the crypto space isn't going away, especially as multiple jurisdictions like the UAE, UK, Singapore, and Hong Kong have taken a good approach to crypto regulations. At the same time, I don't want to tell anyone to speculate too much on smaller crypto assets, as the pool of liquidity that is about to enter primarily into Bitcoin is much larger than anything that currently exists in crypto, which means that BTC could outperform crypto assets over the next 6-12 months. Thanks a lot for reading, and I hope you learned a lot from my analysis. Good luck! :)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro
2
BTC Bitcoin ETF Optimism Drives Towards $37,900 ResistanceIf you haven`t bought BTC here: Then you should know that the inclusion of Coinbase surveillance sharing agreement (SSA) in a spot Bitcoin ETF refiling by BlackRock is a game-changer. As the world's largest asset manager with over $9 trillion in assets under management, BlackRock's involvement brings a new level of credibility and institutional support to the cryptocurrency market. This move demonstrates their confidence in the potential of Bitcoin as an investment asset. Nasdaq's inclusion of the Coinbase SSA further solidifies the positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. Nasdaq is a renowned stock exchange and their involvement in facilitating the surveillance and regulation of a Bitcoin ETF enhances investor confidence. The endorsement from Bernstein, a reputable $650 billion asset manager, adds fuel to the bullish case for Bitcoin. Their belief that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF indicates growing acceptance and recognition of the cryptocurrency by traditional financial institutions. Adding to the positive outlook, Fidelity, a massive $4.2 trillion asset manager, has officially filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF, designating Coinbase as their surveillance sharing agreement counterpart. Fidelity's involvement reinforces the notion that established financial giants see the potential of Bitcoin and are actively seeking opportunities to enter the market. With these major players entering the scene, it is reasonable to anticipate increased adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset. The combined weight of BlackRock, Nasdaq, Bernstein, and Fidelity lends credibility and creates a favorable environment for regulatory approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Considering these recent developments, along with the growing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies, it is highly plausible that Bitcoin will reach the next resistance level of $37,900 and potentially continue its upward trajectory.
Long
by TopgOptions
OIH: Come on! 👏Since the low of wave ii in orange, OIH has already managed some strong upwards moves, but so far, it could not successfully conquer the resistance at $276.85. However, we expect the ETF to climb above this mark soon to develop wave iii in orange. Afterward, the short counter movement of wave iv in orange should interrupt the ascent, before the following upwards step should lead to the top of wave 2 in turquoise. There is a 35% chance, though, that OIH could slip downwards and drop below the support at $250.69 instead.
AMEX:OIH
by MarketIntel