ETF
nasdaq rebound on pauseim into the idea of a bull pullback from the lows in the nasdaq, but its clear that the hourly trend is reversing back to bear to match the overall downtrend. this should continue, but i wouldnt be surprised to find the broader market bouncing again, but until that happens im back in with my short nasdaq position; long sqqq. im thinking top of envelope, and then we revisit that sss supply zone.
Classic bull flag setupEverything is in the chart.. classic bull flag setup on $ulta. Financials are great, EPS is solid, basically recession-proof at the moment.
CALLS idea - wait til retest of 410-420 and grab $500 calls 2 months out.
PUTS idea - wait til top of channel is hit then grab 430 puts 1 month out.
This is not financial advice, just for fun!
did we just start a huge move in vix?uvxy is in full breakout mode. if indices keep hitting new week lows we will probably see new 12 month lows. a good indication of this is a lot of 52 week lows hitting in stocks, and defensive sectors rotating out (UTSL staying green but hitting resistance/visiting 4hr lows), while $tick goes negative. vix has been coiled for this move for a long time, and it looks like its going to monthly highs. my guess is over $9!
this thing is about to smash the market into little tiny piecesarent we all glad we reinvested early in semiconductors? i sure am. the short semiconductor etf is going completely insane. expect that to continue. if you look at the 5 minute you can see we are poised for breakout. we will probably go outside upper envelope, swing back to value area low before moving higher. i dont see anything thats going to stop the total collapse of the semiconductor industry as we know it, do you?
hate to say i told you soso instead ill just say that my favorite inverse index fund is in full breakout mode! nothing is stopping this from running away with everyones presents, so if you have a gift i would share it now. that being said we are at the top of nadaraya watson envelope, and the nasdaq is in extreme oversold territory, so im expecting a bounce followed by continued melt down meaning up, up and away with our little go-go gadget short machine; sqqq.
energy in a pickleno really, this thing is set to roar. big rigs, big pigs, young hogs and motor fog. letterr rrrrrrip! were down near the bottom of the envelope, were way oversold, and the sectir is acting defensively in rotation with a bear market. id like to revisit the top of this rectangle and then dump again 🤷
MSOS | Time to Get High | OversoldThe fund is an actively managed ETF that seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing, under normal circumstances, at least 80% of its net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in securities of companies that derive at least 50% of their net revenue from the marijuana and hemp business in the United States and in derivatives that have economic characteristics similar to such securities. It will concentrate at least 25% of its investments in the pharmaceuticals, biotechnology & life sciences industry group within the health care sector. The fund is non-diversified.
short term bullishness in semiconductors lower lowthis bounce in tech is kicking off the morning, but its not rocketing to new highs, and in this macro environment im not changing from bear bias totale. i will consider 4hr longs taking profit into pivot or upper smart money concepts profile area resistance. remember to reenter short on bear momo.
long term bond yields still bear, but go toward bottomim in favor of smashind long term bond yield curve, and inverting the front years more for obvious reasons, namely boj inflation/interest rate planning for example. the bottom is obviously not here for TLT, but i would look towards these boxes in this order.
YINN | Chinese 3X Bull ETF | LONGThe fund invests at least 80% of its total assets in equity securities of the index and in depositary receipts representing such securities. The index is designed to measure the equity market performance of investable publicly traded "China-based companies" whose primary business or businesses are in the Internet and Internet-related sectors, and are listed outside of Mainland China, as determined by the index provider. The fund is non-diversified.
VWRL most likely buy zonePeople buy the VWRL ETF to hold it for the long term, therefore we want to know what are the best DCA buy levels to take position intelligently.
General insights:
- The uptrend is broken so we use the Fibonacci Retracement Indicator to pinpoint retracement levels.
- There is an upward trending channel since 2015 and the price seems to have returned moving inside the channel (see rejection of shadow at the upper bound of the channel and the 0.236 fibonacci retracement level)
- This indicates that the price might be heading for the lower bound of the channel to continue in the upward trending channel over time
-We look for extra evidence to predict price development, because the most accurate targets are where multiple pieces of evidence come together. Luckily in this chart we can combine evidence from 2 strong indicators:
1) the Fibonacci retracement indicator levels: The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level is at 84.64
2) the trend channel: A bounce on the lower bound of the channel is expected between around 82.50
Therefore I expect that the most likely best buy zone is in between 82.50 and 84.64.
However, note that all Fibonacci retracement levels can be considered as buy levels for DCA, see levels and buy levels here:
0.328: 90.98
0.5 84.64
0.618 78.50
Happy trading!
SPY S&P 500 ETF Options Ahead of the CPI ReportIf you haven`t shorted the Bearish Flag Chart Pattern:
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data for the month of November 2022 on December 13, 2022, at 8.30am ET.
The rate of inflation is the most important data that will impact the Fed’s coming rate hike decision.
Now looking at the SPY options chain Ahead of the CPI Report, i would buy the $387 strike price Puts with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$8.96 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the CPI Report, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SOXL | Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF | LongThe fund invests at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes) in financial instruments, such as swap agreements, securities of the index, and ETFs that track the index and other financial instruments that provide daily leveraged exposure to the index or to ETFs that track the index. The index is a rules-based, modified float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that tracks the performance of the thirty largest U.S. listed semiconductor companies. The fund is non-diversified.