ETF
TLT Bond ETF Setup for Reversal to LONGNASDAQ:TLT
On the 4H Chart, TLT is sitting on minor support with major support below that.
It is near to the bottom of open Bollinger Bands and is inclined to move through
the basis line closer to the upper band.
Significant resistance is 5 and 15% upside.
I see a swing long trade with the stop loss below the major support and targets
before the major resistances, yielding a very good reward for risk.
Call options are another possibility to consider.
SPX500- SPY ETF trading idea -day tradeHi Traders,
After getting 200 SMA rejection SPY facing some pressure and some other Macro news not helping the market. SPY can test the 423 and 420 level.
Be patience for the trade, market is very choppy from last few days.
Watch the premarket low and high as support and resistance.
SPY ETF - Short - ReversalS&P 500 ETF is displaying a reversal pattern where, the stock is overbought on RSI and Stochastic. Moreover, a bearish pin bar is apparent and connected with a previous swing high in the chart (trend line). In addition, MACD is making lower highs (may turn bearish soon).
Entry is at the potential retest of the Bollinger band as a resistance.
Exit is at the bottom of the Bollinger bands (support level)
LABU 3X Leverage BIOTECHNOLOGY a potential Recession playLABU a 3x leveraged EFT in the biotechnology sector has diverse holdings.
My thesis is that biotechnology and healthcare are relatively unhinged from the broader general market.
Here I chart LABU / QQQ ratio to determine relative strength.
On this weekly chart, the ratio and so relative strength are at more than a 52 week low.
The MACD indicator shows the MACD and signal line ascending and below the histogram.;
moreover the MACD in green is running above the signal line. This favors a trend reversal.
All in all, this seems to be a setup for a long swing trade or investment.
I will take a trade in a call option with a strike 50% higher than current price
as I see a potential for a large percentage gain for LABU. The diversity of the ETF
will serve to mitigate some of the risk. A stop loss will be 1% below current price
with an expectation of more than a 50 % return in the remainder of the calendar
year but far more in the case of the call option scenario
SPX500- SPY ETF trading idea -day tradeHi Traders,
If market gap down watch the 427 level, market might find the support on 425 level.
Walmart and Home Depot earning will be out before the market open. it will influence the market sentiment.
Retails numbers will be out before market open, these are the key numbers for market. .
BOIL / GUSH RATIO- Leverage 3X Natural Gas ETFsAMEX:BOIL
BOIL is the #X leveraged ETF for Natural Gas while KOLD is it inverse.
On this 30M chart I setup the ration between BOIL and KOLD.
This is to find precise swing entries without a lot of work for those only trading part time like myself.
At the highs, BOIL has peaked relative to KOLDAccordingly, this is the time to exit BOIL and enter a position
on KOLD. Conversely, when the ratio is at an inflection bottom, a trader should exit KOLD
and enter a BOIL position.
This chart shows several patterns including:
a double or triple top which may breakdown as there is a newer cup and handle potentially breaking
out above the handle in continuation of the prior uptrend. It the present chart, the Bollinger Band basis line
the uptrending of its boundaries and the MACD all favor the probability of an uptrend., the spot markeri
All in all, I am waiting to buy BOIL since natural gas is being liquified and shipped to Europe to
make electric power to supply to air conditioner for the long hot summer. XNGUSD has had dramatic
action in the past couple of months, all good for BOIL's price action.
Three evening stars or three-bar plays marked with red down arrows.
If not in a position at present, the chart should be observed for the cup and handle pattern completion
towards a resumption of the uptrend. IF so, a BOIL position could be entered.
If it fails the triple top controls the price action and
a KOLD position could be entered.
This chart demonstrates the importance of looking for patterns to help guide
higher probability setup.
YINN China 3X Leverage ETF Reverses off the bottom Swing Long
AMEX:YINN YINN is now in an uptrend with an increasing cloud score
and upgoing BB boundaries. Stop Loss at the double bottom
while the first target is the recent consolidation period
with about 15% upside to that take profit and about a
2.5 Reward to Risk
All this makes YINN a candidate for a swing long trade
LABU LEVERAGED BIOTECH ETFThis Daily Chart plots LABU to LABD ratios over time. LABU is 3X Leveraged ETF of a variety of biotechnology
stocks while LABD is the inverse.
By plotting the ratio of LABU to LABD, what can be found is the precise end of the LABU downtrend (LABD uptrend)
and reversal into LABU uptrend ( LABD downtrend).
In this case, the reversal occurred about June 17th while the SPY reached its current market bottom.
This type of analysis can be used to make trade decisions regarding a contrasting pair of stocks or forex pairs.
It makes the decisions more informed. IF going down to a 1H or 4H timeframe, the accuracies will be higher
and the pivots more frequent also making potential profits higher.
This can be used with other ETF inverses such as
GUST /DRIP
BOIL /KOLD
JDST / JNUG
YINN / YANG
SOXL/ SOXS
FAZ / FAS
TMF /TMV
By setting up all of these also with alerts such as ratio decreasing or ration increasing
a trader with very little time to trade and diversify and automate his/her trading
resulting in risk stratification and mitigation and economy of time.
SPX has broken above its resistance and the 300 day EMASPX has successfully managed to break above a key resistance level around 4100-4150 and in doing so has crossed over the 300 day ema. It's likely that we will see a test of the 300 day ema and resistance as a support level in the short term, but overall, this is bullish in the long run, and signals that we are back into an uptrend.
Volumetric SPY, a bounce or...?Hello everyone, after a bit of relaxation I'll be back to update you here and on the various platforms.
2022, as we know and have now metabolized, will be remembered as a rather black year, how black the second half of the year will tell, which could take back one of the worst declines in the history of the S&P, or sink the blow further.
Let's first analyze the SPY chart, where we can see, as always, that the volumes have supported the market rebounds , even in this slightly interlocutory summer phase.
After the first low volume node in area 410 was punctured, the market then rebounded in area 390, returning to retest the level. Subsequently it has punctured until it reaches area 365, another low volume node and now we are again in area 390. Classic downward trend.
In the last few days, however, we have had quite decisive uptrend days, it must be seen, being the third week of the month, where the monthly options expire, if they are movements aimed at directing the price in certain areas, pushed by institutional money, or it is the first reversal signal.
One thing is certain, either way, we will have a retracement, probably in the next week or the following. If it stops above the volume node in area 365, and then starts again, it will be an excellent signal.
The coming week will also be correlated with potentially very impactful news, which could raise volatility, so watch out for days 26, 27 and 28 where we will have the consumer confidence report, the FED meeting and the GDP data for the second quarter, in this order.
As for my operations, I have only accumulated my portfolio of ETFs and I have mediated on a few single shares (Apple and Airbnb). It is absolutely not the time to sell, this will come, and if we have "sown" wisely, we will have a good harvest.
While not doing speculative forex, trading 80% in USD, I always keep an eye on the EUR / USD. My "target" was the 1/1 , achieved, which made me earn a good percentage of the capital.
In times of downturns, at least the dollar brings some comfort.
I would like to point out the Gold, which arrived in a very important area, historically of rebound and volumetric accumulation. I have recently added on the related ETC which replicates the performance of the futures.
That's all for today,
Happy Trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
The NASDAQ 100 will fall another 40% based on previous crashesI don't believe the current 32% drawdown is the end of the pain for the NASDAQ:NDX .
Given the macroeconomic climate, it makes more sense to compare the major crashes of 2000 and 2008. We could even see something more severe.
We can see that the current 30% or so it has fallen, does not nearly compare with the two most serious drawdowns (2000 and 2008) in either time or price.
Averaging percentage drawdown for 2000 and 2008, we can expect a drawdown of around 60-70%.
Averaging time from top until bottom for those two historic crashes, we can expect a drawdown length of around 700 days!
That means we're very unlikely to see the bottom until the at least the end of Q1 next year, most likely Q4.
The Dec 2018 low of ~6000 lines up very nicely with the historic average of the two major crashes.
Dollar cost averaging in during the marked green accumulation zone is my strategy.
SOXL - An interesting proposition TAKENGiven a heads up from a friend some time ago, SOXL was closely tracked and position taken at 14.80 (white arrow).
There was immaculate synchrony on the weekly and daily charts, as it fell in a falling wedge. The weekly technical indicators turned as the weekly candlestick hinted of a possible trend change.
The daily technical indicators similar in sync and a break above the HULL moving average also coincided to a breakout of the wedge.
Looking for a move to 32. A very good amount of space, over the next couple of weeks.