Bitcoin Update | Is bitcoin following 2023 chart? Bitcoin Update
(Weekly-TF)
Is bitcoin following 2023 chart?
In 2023,
-Major Supply was $GETTEX:23K-25k, 2 Times rejected from there.
-In Q1, BTC brokeout the Resistance/Supply!
-BTC pumped $16K to $31K. Almost +90% pumped.
-Flipped the supply & tested it 2 times as a support.
-Total '7 Months consolidation : 30K to 25K
-BTC formed a mega bullish ''Flag Pattern''
-Flag brokeout in Q4 (Oct Month)
-Started the 3rd wave bull rally in Q4.
In 2024,
-Major Supply : $63-57k, 2 times rejected from there.
-In Q1, BTC brokeout the Resistance/Supply!
-BTC pumped GETTEX:39K to $74K. Almost +90% pumped.
-Flipped the supply & tested it 2 times as a support.
-Total 5 Months consolidation till now : $70k to 60k
-BTC forming a mega bullish Flag Pattern!
what next? 🤔
Like 2023,
- btc may consolidate 2 more months of Q3 (Aug-Sep)
- we may see the Flag will breakout in Q4 (Oct Month)
- will start the 5th wave bull rally in Q4
It is just a speculation, there is no guarantee that what happened in the past will happen in the future. #DoYourOwnResearch
If you like the Update, please boost & follow! Thanks.
ETF
Less is more...If you don't know me, I have been a trader a very long time. Nearly 25 years to be exact.
Over the years, I have spent a lot of time studying a wide array of techniques, tools, patterns and market sentiment. Lucky enough, the markets have also been very kind to me.
I've been fortunate enough to have two trading books published by large traditional publishing companies. So it's safe to say, I live and breathe trading.
I am going to do a series of posts here covering a couple of key educational topics - starting with Elliott Wave theory.
When it comes to Elliott Wave theory, there seems to be a love hate relationship for many people. Some get it, some see it as not relevant. To be honest, both are correct.
Now before you jump on the high horse "it doesn't work for crypto" - let me start by saying, this is not a lesson on how to use Elliott Theory. I covered that in these posts below;
And step two;
In terms of using Elliott, it's not as simple as trying to figure out each and every move. (this is often why, it does not work.) Instead the benefit of Elliott, is to accept it as a bias tool that aids in understanding the current market sentiment.
We often see posts online about things like the Wall Street cheat sheet. I also covered this in another post here on @TradingView
Where the theory has any real value, is simply to obtain a bias. The market is always searching for liquidity. In order to obtain liquidity, the market needs to attract players for the game.
Now, you have probably entered a trade and felt almost immediately that the market has pushed against you, it's out to get you and the brokers are playing 1 vs 1 against you.
This is where sentiment really comes in.
As a retail trader you have likely been exposed to tools such as RSI, MACD or even dabbled with Elliott and Wyckoff. But the reason the market does, what the market does, is not to get you as an individual, instead it's there to collect liquidity from a crowd.
Elliott wave theory isn't a technical tool, it's a sentiment tool.
So instead of trying to guess every internal and nested swing, you can make an awful lot of money by simply giving a directional bias.
I wrote an article in 2021 here -
About the emotions, I used the Simpsons to get the point across. The general idea is to understand where liquidity is likely to be and use that to make informed trading decisions.
If you have any specific questions, even topics you would like covered, leave a comment below. I'll add to this in another post as part of this series.
Stay safe and wish you all the best.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
ETH - Trading The Range, AGAIN!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per our previous analysis, ETH rejected the $3000 support zone and traded higher.
📈 ETH is still trading within a big range in the shape of a symmetrical triangle.
🏹 Thus, as it approaches the $3000 again, we expect a bullish movement towards the $3,500 round number.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GOLDETF by TradePlusThere has not been much published about GOLDETF, but I am considering a long position around the 3.20 area. Its current bearish trend may continue for a few months, possibly until the US General Election. However, looking at the return on investment (ROI) for both the past year and year-to-date (YTD), it has already exceeded 14% annually, which is quite impressive. I am closely monitoring the 3.23-3.20 range to acquire my units and positions, insyaAllah.
Good luck, and thank you!
Is ETH Bearish Post-ETF? How Does it Compare to BTC's ETF LaunchI've seen posts on social media complaining (or farming engagement) about ETH ETFs. Specifically they are commenting on ETH dropping in price after they launched. Here are a few important facts to consider:
BTC was red for nearly a month after launching, losing over 20%
Stocks had their worst day in 2 years at the same time the ETH ETFs launched
Relax. Patience goes a long way here
ETH, like BTC, will see some outflows and selling after launching. This isn't unusual. Also global markets cooled off a little at the same time the ETH ETFs launch. I expect ETH to see a little bearish churn initially but they should pick up by August.
And of course, the thing every investor is waiting for- the Fed is likely to end this rate cycle by September, and thats when we can expect to see crypto rally with str
Hey SPY Lovers we got a Pullback Target !This is my analysis of SPY on the daily chart.
I have a leg measurement in the two strong corrections that the price has been making. In the second leg, it replicates the first one. I also have a very important point that coincides with the first leg and connects with the second one. So, no matter how low we might see the market fall, the levels 531 and 532 are a point of interest for me for a possible pullback.
ETHEREUM ETF With the Ethereum ETF decision just days away, ETH has made a massive breakout play in an effort to front run a positive ETF outcome, the approval of VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares ETH ETFs on the 23rd & 24th May respectively.
In terms of price action and charting this is how I see it. Now that price has broken out from the downtrend and hit the Bearish OB as shown, I think many were caught of guard and expected any sort of volatility to come on the day of the decisions. Instead it seems many have decided to front run the decision and go long which opens up more challenges. I think ETH had priced in a rejection of the ETF at ~£3K , with how the SEC has viewed ETH and it's stance on insisting it's a security, Coinbase estimated a 30-40% chance of an approval last weekend. Now that price has risen almost as if we already have news of approval I think that should the ETF be denied we could fall straight back down to $3K area with support areas shown as targets on the chart. This would print a Bart Simpson style pattern and many Longs will be devastated.
On the other hand, Bloomberg have said that the chances of approval has gone from 25% to 75% and the chart shows this new level of optimism. If the ETF is approved I could see ETH using this current level as a base to target new local highs and close the gap on BTC dominance.
Ethereum ETF Approval Met With Bearish Technical PatternBINANCE:ETHUSDT managed to print a slight gain over the past 24 hours to trade at $3,497.30 at press time.
This slight uptick in the ETH price comes after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing of multiple spot Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
A Bearish Chart Pattern Forms on ETH’s Daily Chart
The Ethereum price was rejected by the major resistance level at $3,555 in the last 48 hours, resulting in a retracement to the 9 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line. If the leading altcoin falls below this technical crutch, ETH might be at risk of falling to the $3,351.15 support, which is also confluent with the 20 EMA line.
Traders and investors will want to take note of the bearish rising wedge pattern that has formed on ETH’s daily chart. This specific pattern suggests the Ethereum price might undergo a strong correction. If this pattern is validated, the crypto’s price could fall below the $3,351.15 support and possibly fall to as low as $3,094.39 in the short to medium term.
However, the Ethereum price might still bounce off of the $3,351.15 support if the rising wedge pattern plays out. This could be a pull back before the altcoin rallies above $3,555 to potentially rise to $3,677.31.
This potential price drop might not even happen if ETH manages to close a daily candle above $3,555 within the next 3 days. In this alternative scenario, the Ethereum price might attempt a challenge at the aforementioned $3,677.31 resistance.
Technicals Warn the Ethereum Price Might Pull Back
Technical indicators on ETH’s daily chart warn the Ethereum price might drop in the next 48 hours. Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators are on the verge of triggering major bearish flags.
Although the MACD line is currently positioned bullishly above the MACD Signal line, the narrowing gap between the two indicators warns that the positive cycle might soon come to an end. Meanwhile, the RSI is closing in on its Simple Moving Average (SMA) line on the daily chart, which could signal a bearish shift in strength if the two lines cross in the next 48-72 hours.
Ethereum Spot ETF TOMORROW! Expect a HUGE Sell-Off!The Ethereum Spot ETF launches tomorrow, July 23, 2024.
Over the 12 days following the Bitcoin Spot ETF launch on January 11th, CRYPTOCAP:BTC retraced ~20%
If Ethereum follows this pattern, it should fall to ~$2,800 around August 4th.
We know that Grayscale holds ~$9.87B CRYPTOCAP:ETH and it plans on charging its customers 10x the management fee vs competitors.
I very much expect a big sell-off because of this, possibly greater than 20%
Ethereum - ETF incoming! No one can be sure when the US SEC will approve the spot Ethereum ETF registration statement, which is expected to be in next few weeks. Now it's just a matter of how long the SEC wants to delay.
Ethereum has been trading within a parallel channel since the beginning of the month, and is currently using the daily SMMA as support, if we break out of the channel with confirmation, I believe we will easily see Ethereum return to $4,000 or close to it in the short term, that will be bullish for the Altcoins.
ETF total destruction scenario. Nuclear for $BTC and cryptoAre ETF investors ready for crypto?
The recent pullback has seen BlackRock and Fidelity purchasing a lot of CRYPTOCAP:BTC even though they don't really need it.
Most of their ETF investors are currently losing money, and the stock market is parabolic.
I think we don’t realize how dire the situation is. What we are seeing is the bulls trying to prevent an ETF run from crypto to the stock market!
Billions are being spent to avoid a 50% pullback, which would be necessary for CRYPTOCAP:BTC to consolidate. Can ETF investors stomach a -50% drop in their investment while the SPX500 is parabolic?
Now, imagine what would happen if CRYPTOCAP:BTC dumped -50% and ETF holders capitulated and sold everything in panic.
That would nuke the CRYPTOCAP:BTC ETF, destroy the ETH ETF, and cancel the CRYPTOCAP:SOL ETF. Essentially, the banking industry would conclude that crypto is too volatile to be offered to their customers as ETFs.
I think the bulls are aware of the danger and are doing all they can to prevent this from happening.
The consequences for crypto would be unimaginable! It would be the biggest dump of CRYPTOCAP:BTC in history and could drive prices to unbelievable lows.
So, pray that this correction doesn't go too low—at least not to the point where investors capitulate and abandon crypto to rotate their money into the more secure, mature, and currently more profitable stock market.
APE: Will It Finally Stop Bleeding? Bullish Divergence!APE came on the market with a bang, but has been severely underperforming Bitcoin (and most alts) since it's inception on Binance. Very disappointing price action for holders.
Nevertheless, there's a small chance that APE has bottomed. On the weekly, there's a strong indication for Bullish Divergence, which could lead to a sizeable move in the coming weeks and months.
I'm keeping a tight stop loss and a target at 5$. This will result in a trade with a very good risk-reward of over 23.
US Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings SeasonUS Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings Season
Company earnings reports for the second quarter will be a crucial driver of stock market movements in the coming weeks. Traditionally, the largest banks kick off the earnings season, and their performance indicators today are setting a bullish tone.
For example:
Bank of America (BAC), report published on 16th July:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $0.83, expected = $0.797;
→ Gross income: actual = $25.37 billion, expected = $25.22 billion;
Goldman Sachs (GS), report published on 15th July:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $8.62, expected = $8.35;
→ Gross income: actual = $12.73 billion, expected = $12.35 billion.
Other major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC), have also surpassed analysts' expectations. Although following different trajectories, the stock prices of all the listed banks have generally been rising after the publication of their earnings reports.
Notably, the formation on the XLF chart is interesting – this is the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF, which is focused on the financial sector and includes the shares of the largest US banks. You can trade this ETF with FXOpen, taking advantage of CFD instruments.
Technical analysis of the XLF chart shows that:
→ In 2022-2023, the price was in a broad trading range of 30.70-36.6;
→ In 2023-2024, the price formed an upward channel (shown in blue);
→ The median line of this channel acts as support;
→ Rising lows A and B resemble a bullish Cup and Handle pattern.
In the wake of the successful bank reports:
→ the XLF price broke through the 42.20 level, which had been acting as resistance since the end of March;
→ the RSI indicator entered the overbought zone.
It is possible that amid positive earnings reports from other companies in the financial sector:
→ the XLF price could reach the upper boundary of the blue channel;
→ the RSI indicator could form a divergence;
→ subsequently, a correction may form on the chart as investors may wish to lock in profits from the rapid growth.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Ethereum Price Surge: Is the Altcoin Heading for New Highs?In recent trading sessions, BINANCE:ETHUSDT has exhibited notable movements, reflecting a dynamic interplay between bullish and bearish forces. Closing prices have fluctuated within a range. Recent fluctuations have placed ETH at critical junctures with significant support and resistance levels coming into focus.
ETH is currently testing a resistance zone around $3,408.08. Should the price manage to break through this level, the next significant resistance is at $3,419.6, followed by a stronger resistance at $3,460.5. On the downside, ETH has solid support at $3,379.74, with additional supports at $3,371.28 and $3,361.69. The price action around these levels will be crucial in determining the next directional move for ETH.
The 9 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 20 EMA indicate that the short-term momentum is slightly bullish, with the 9 EMA trending above the 20 EMA. This crossover suggests potential upward momentum, but the narrowing gap between the two EMAs could imply a possible consolidation phase or a reversal if bearish sentiment gains strength.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bullish scenario. The MACD line remains above the signal line, although the histogram shows diminishing bullish momentum. This could indicate a weakening in the upward trend, potentially leading to a period of sideways movement or a minor correction.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought levels, moving from highs of 84.42 to more moderate readings around 65.24. This suggests that while the bullish momentum has cooled off, there is still room for potential upside before the Ethereum price enters overbought territory again.
For traders looking to capitalize on the current market conditions, several entry and exit points can be considered. For long positions, a breakout above the resistance at $3,408.08 could signal an entry point, with potential targets set at $3,419.6 and $3,460.5. Stop-loss orders could be placed below the support at $3,379.74 to manage risk.
Conversely, for short trades, an entry point might be identified if ETH fails to sustain above $3,408.08 and begins to retreat. Targets for short positions could be set at the support levels of $3,379.74, $3,371.28, and $3,361.69. A stop-loss above the resistance at $3,419.6 could help mitigate potential losses.
As always, traders should monitor these technical levels closely and remain vigilant for any shifts in market sentiment that could impact their trading strategies.
Quick Analysis on Early signs of $BTC CapitulationJust a hunch on $BTC.
We bought ETF's on this last dip. IBKR only allows 10% crypto.
May begin buying spot again as we sold close to top.
First an explanation on a 4Hr #BTC chart broken down into 3 phases
(Letters A - C)
A
The descending arrow shows $ Flow weakening. There were huge buys but sells were eating it up. That was a RED FLAG. We spoke about divergence and lessening buy volume for DAYS! Few warnings.
It was eventually followed by #bitcoin selling pressure.
-------
B
$ Flow indicator is a laggard, we keep eyes on an investment's volume on our own, visual. In this case we're looking at the #Bitcoin volume.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC had some buying but sells kept coming in.
These were likely sellouts from leverage & shorts.
Wont comment on Germany as spot #BTC is still irrelevant.
($ Flow was fine for spot and nowhere near as bad as futures, but CRYPTOCAP:BTC kept going down. Not sure what needs to be shown for people to realize that spot is IRRELEVANT until some time in the future.)
-------
C
2nd CRYPTOCAP:BTC phase is almost done.
Buys coming in and the sells are not as strong anymore.
It needs a lil more time but #BTC MAY/COULD be capitulating.
It holds 52kish weekly & monthly and we could see something nice. See the chart on #GOLD for the Cup and Handle breakout.
Have a great weekend!!!
(pls see profile for more info)