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Volumetric SPY, a bounce or...?Hello everyone, after a bit of relaxation I'll be back to update you here and on the various platforms. 2022, as we know and have now metabolized, will be remembered as a rather black year, how black the second half of the year will tell, which could take back one of the worst declines in the history of the S&P, or sink the blow further. Let's first analyze the SPY chart, where we can see, as always, that the volumes have supported the market rebounds , even in this slightly interlocutory summer phase. After the first low volume node in area 410 was punctured, the market then rebounded in area 390, returning to retest the level. Subsequently it has punctured until it reaches area 365, another low volume node and now we are again in area 390. Classic downward trend. In the last few days, however, we have had quite decisive uptrend days, it must be seen, being the third week of the month, where the monthly options expire, if they are movements aimed at directing the price in certain areas, pushed by institutional money, or it is the first reversal signal. One thing is certain, either way, we will have a retracement, probably in the next week or the following. If it stops above the volume node in area 365, and then starts again, it will be an excellent signal. The coming week will also be correlated with potentially very impactful news, which could raise volatility, so watch out for days 26, 27 and 28 where we will have the consumer confidence report, the FED meeting and the GDP data for the second quarter, in this order. As for my operations, I have only accumulated my portfolio of ETFs and I have mediated on a few single shares (Apple and Airbnb). It is absolutely not the time to sell, this will come, and if we have "sown" wisely, we will have a good harvest. While not doing speculative forex, trading 80% in USD, I always keep an eye on the EUR / USD. My "target" was the 1/1 , achieved, which made me earn a good percentage of the capital. In times of downturns, at least the dollar brings some comfort. I would like to point out the Gold, which arrived in a very important area, historically of rebound and volumetric accumulation. I have recently added on the related ETC which replicates the performance of the futures. That's all for today, Happy Trading Lazy Bull DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
AMEX:SPY
by LazyBull5
The NASDAQ 100 will fall another 40% based on previous crashesI don't believe the current 32% drawdown is the end of the pain for the NASDAQ:NDX . Given the macroeconomic climate, it makes more sense to compare the major crashes of 2000 and 2008. We could even see something more severe. We can see that the current 30% or so it has fallen, does not nearly compare with the two most serious drawdowns (2000 and 2008) in either time or price. Averaging percentage drawdown for 2000 and 2008, we can expect a drawdown of around 60-70%. Averaging time from top until bottom for those two historic crashes, we can expect a drawdown length of around 700 days! That means we're very unlikely to see the bottom until the at least the end of Q1 next year, most likely Q4. The Dec 2018 low of ~6000 lines up very nicely with the historic average of the two major crashes. Dollar cost averaging in during the marked green accumulation zone is my strategy.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by CoinrankDotApp
1
SOXL - An interesting proposition TAKENGiven a heads up from a friend some time ago, SOXL was closely tracked and position taken at 14.80 (white arrow). There was immaculate synchrony on the weekly and daily charts, as it fell in a falling wedge. The weekly technical indicators turned as the weekly candlestick hinted of a possible trend change. The daily technical indicators similar in sync and a break above the HULL moving average also coincided to a breakout of the wedge. Looking for a move to 32. A very good amount of space, over the next couple of weeks.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by Auguraltrader
8
DOA trading Strategy - SPY#SPY - For my long term people! I know a lot of yall are asking me about my personal long term positions. When I did my last long term projection of SPY back in March 2022 I said that SPY will hit $390 before June We hit $383 May 2022 then bounced hard ✅ I've been out of my long term since March 2022 most of you probably remember that I've been shorting the market since end of March 2022 when we caught the 2nd drop from double top back in March. I'm getting ready to enter on my long term if we hold at $360-$365 area From what I'm seeing now, we are currently getting ready for a 3rd impulsive wave, and just finishing the corrective wave. We should hit $360-365 before end of September Then if we hold, I'm going shopping for long term!
AMEX:SPYShort
by directoptionalerts
WEAT - Massive double top short opportunity using wheat etfDouble top Volume profile showing a lot of supply Seasonal data favors downside until mid September Plan your trades before executing the trade. How much are you willing to bet? Where will you get out? How will you lock in profits? Risk: 60 bps Profit Protection: 3-Day Trailing Stop Rule (Peter Brandt) You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money ~Mark Douglas Anything can happen ~Mark Douglas
AMEX:WEATShort
by pangx623
2
Winter is Coming - Long UNLAs this terrible war grinds on, Europe and Asia are getting ready for winter by restocking inventories in the face of a supply squeeze caused by EU and US sanctions. Years of under investment in the sector due to political/ESG concerns combined with the sector's past corporate mismanagement making investors doubly wary has led to insufficient infrastructure in place to meet demand. Given the recent pullback from the recent highs and a positive testing of support, I feel now is the time to enter a position at this level with a timeframe of 9-10 months for my thesis to play out. UNL is the vehicle to express my trade thesis because it avoids the risks of contango by using a 3 expiry framework instead of simple following the most current NG contract which can create contango risk at rollover. Entry: $23.32 This is the avg of 3 tranches spread out from the $22.50 - 26.50 price levels. Today's price puke back down to support at $22.65 was the last fill. I am a swing trader and will be allowing this to run until spring. I will be selling covered calls throughout. I want to let this fish run with the line, so I may or may not sell parts of the position at major price levels. We are in market conditions where the price may not have much of an upper bound until demand eases in the spring. I will update as this trade develops. Good luck and god speed.
AMEX:UNLLong
by SloppySeconds
WEAT ETV To Play The Future Price of WheatWEAT's price, an ETV which trades wheat futures, is positioned to keep increasing as the horrible war in Ukraine rages on. I accumulated this back at the $6.5 - $7 price level as a response to the decrease in fertilizer (thank you China for hoarding and mismanaging) and increases in crop disruption due to climate change related disasters. As you can see, it was chugging along nicely within the channel I drew back in Sept. I was expecting the continuation of nice returns as I've been playing the top and bottom of the channel. I had no idea that the #1 and #5 producers of wheat would go to war before spring planting and now we can expect the price of wheat and wheat futures to sky rocket. There is supply side destruction for at least one year that is being priced in right now but the decrease in fertilizer and climate disruption effecting the rest of the producers has not. Where the market hasn't yet priced something in, there is profit to be made. Wheat and thus WEAT's price has open skies once it breaks through the $12.65 level and the broader cup, of the cup and handle formation it has been forming for years, will be put in at $24.65, then down to put in the handle, reset and then put in a big impulsive wave up.
AMEX:WEATLong
by SloppySeconds
4
QQQ Volatility 02 June 2022 QQQ Volatility 02 June 2022 The current percentile of QQQ is around 72.22%. The current implied volatility is around 33.01 -> which translates into a daily movement of 2.08% At the same time, this translates in an aproximate +-6.5$ movement For this we can assume close to 85-90% probability of efficiency based on the last years data. Based on this our channel for today is going to be, assuming the opening price is 306 TOP 306 + 6.5 ~= 312.5 BOT 306 - 6.5 ~= 299.5 This strategy is perfectly suited for an iron condor At the same for those that are looking for entry points in case they want to go long call/put or a reverse iron condor, instead of normal iron condor we can make use of next data: Based on the last years, we can expect that the asset is going to move more than 0.53% which translates into a +- 1.6$ movements. And this comes with a 75-80% probability based on the last years. TOP 306 + 1.6 ~= 307.6 => as an entry point for long where we can use the opening price as a stop loss BOT 306 - 1.6 ~= 304.4 => as an entry point for short where we can use the opening price as a stop loss
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
SPY Volatility 02 June 2022 SPY Volatility 02 June 2022 The current percentile of SPY is around 68.25%. The current implied volatility is around 26.05 -> which translates into a daily movement of 1.64% At the same time, this translates in an aproximate +-7$ movement For this we can assume close to 90% probability of efficiency based on the last years data. Based on this our channel for today is going to be, assuming the opening price is 410 TOP 410 + 7 ~= 417 BOT 410 - 7 ~= 403 This strategy is perfectly suited for an iron condor At the same for those that are looking for entry points in case they want to go long call/put or a reverse iron condor, instead of normal iron condor we can make use of next data: Based on the last years, we can expect that the asset is going to move more than 0.43% which translates into a +- 2$ movements. And this comes with a 70-80% probability based on the last years. TOP 410 + 2 ~= 412 => as an entry point for long where we can use the opening price as a stop loss BOT 410 - 2 ~= 408 => as an entry point for short where we can use the opening price as a stop loss
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
$DRV PTs 56-100 and higher 3X Bear Real Estate ETFThe fund invests in swap agreements, futures contracts, short positions or other financial instruments that, in combination, provide inverse or short leveraged exposure to the index equal to at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes). The index is provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices (the “index provider”) and includes securities of companies from the following industries: real estate management and development and REITs, excluding mortgage REITs. The fund is non-diversified.
AMEX:DRVLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
1