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Daily US Volatility Forecast 25 May 22 SPY,SPX, QQQ, NDXSPX/ES/SPY 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 1.85% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 4045 BOT 3900 From fundamental point of view, today we are going to have US GDP release, which it may affect with a high probability the price of this asset Since the expected GDP is going to be negative/bearish compared to the previous values, I believe once we are close to 30k we can enter in a short trade before the release of the data. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NDX/NQ/QQQ 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 2.28% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 12150 BOT 11600 From fundamental point of view, today we are going to have US GDP release, which it may affect with a high probability the price of this asset Since the expected GDP is going to be negative/bearish compared to the previous values, I believe once we are close to 30k we can enter in a short trade before the release of the data. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Bear market?Bear market? Yes, an increasingly similar 2022, even worse, to 2018. This is already what we are experiencing on the financial markets. Hard times for long traders, for swing traders, while golden opportunities for day traders, for those who know how to take advantage of moments of volatility. Volatility that hasn't been seen in a while, especially on the S&P500. As for me, having a very very strict risk management, for swing or day trading operations, I prefer to focus on the long-term portfolio, accumulating and rebalancing my ETF portfolio which is my real "safe haven" in difficult times. It is during the downturn that stocks pass from the hands of traders to those of investors. One of the most truthful phrases I've ever heard since doing this job. Returning to trading, the expectation for June 15-16 is felt by the market; uncertainty has never brought anything good, paradoxically a further .50 point hike from the FED but with falling inflation it would be welcomed by the market. The level of inflation is the most important thermometer, and it has reached such high levels that it bothered some analysts to remember the Volcker maneuver. I don't think so and I hope it will go that far. What is certain is that the Fed has waited too long to raise rates and international tension and the consequent increase in commodities has aggravated the situation. It is no coincidence that the oil trade and my commodity ETF are the two biggest gains this year as far as I'm concerned. I close by summarizing my recent activities: Purchase (accumulation) on Apple (AAPL) close May 19 MSCI World ETF purchase (accumulation) 19 May close Buy (accumulate) emerging markets ETFs May 19th close Happy trading Lazy bull DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LazyBull5
$XOP Smells like distributionXOP to me needs to cool off after this monster up leg. Starting to smell like distribution with lower highs. A monster breakout is possible, but even being bullish I'd like a dip to $120 zone before the next up leg. Daily - seeing some bearish divergence on the RSI Weekly - top of channel rejection (so far) with Bearish MACD cross and momo turning down Monthly - we're at the 2015 resistance line and an RSI approaching over bought territory 4HR - bearish divergence in MOMO and lower highs with MA turning down I'm just not a buyer here, started a short position will add upon further confirmation JUN 130P Cheers !
AMEX:XOPShort
by FriscoTrades
Volatility 19 May 22 S&P500 and Nasdaq Index and ETF's ES SP500 Future 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last year candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.97% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.46% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 95.32 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 4013 BOT 3820 SPY 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last year candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.68% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.11% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 6.6 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 88% probability for today are going to be The calculations are in general made with the open daily candle. Since we dont have one currently, you can wait for the open candle and add or rest 6.6 points to that in order to get the top/bottom channel SPY SP500 ETF 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last year candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.68% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.11% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 82.61 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 86% probability for today are going to be The calculations are in general made with the open daily candle. Since we dont have one currently, you can wait for the open candle and add or rest 82.61 points to that in order to get the top/bottom channel QQQ Nasdaq ETF 19 May 2022 The current 2022 Volatility for NDX/NQ/QQQ is much higher and abnormal than the previous years. For that as a precation I am going to take the initial base as a 1.25x multiplier . Based on the HV measures from the last year candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.67% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.5x multiplier => 3.2% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 9.32 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 90.5% probability for today are going to be The calculations are in general made with the open daily candle. Since we dont have one currently, you can wait for the open candle and add or rest 9.32 points to that in order to get the top/bottom channel NQ Nasdaq Future 19 May 2022 The current 2022 Volatility for NDX/NQ/QQQ is much higher and abnormal than the previous years. For that as a precation I am going to take the initial base as a 1.25x multiplier . Based on the HV measures from the last year candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.67% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.5x multiplier => 3.2% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 376.75 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 88.5% probability for today are going to be TOP 12288 BOT 12224
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
GDXJ: Testing the watersAfter jumping down from its last high at the lower edge of the blue zone between $51.27 and $62.63, GDXJ has fallen below the mark at $36.58 to test the waters of the magenta zone between $37.26 and $24.77. We expect it to gather more downward pressure to advance deeper into the magenta zone, where it should finish wave ii in magenta. Then, the ETF should turn around and climb back above $36.58. From there, it should continue the ascent towards the resistance at $51.92. However, there is a 30% chance that GDXJ could break through the magenta zone and subsequently drop below the support at $19.52 instead.
AMEX:GDXJ
by MarketIntel
ProShares UltraPro Short Dow 30 ETF Is The US market crash ?Is The US market crash coming ? We have 3 types of “crashes” Correction <15% downward movement in a major indicy Bear Market <20% downward movement in a major indicy Black Swan event, something very unexpected that tanks the market, think 1987, 1929, challenger disaster, 911 and so on. The fourth type is the 1919, 1929, 1999 and 2008 scenario that people generally refer to as a “crash” 2022 a new one ? Sincereley L.E.D In Spain 14/05/2022
AMEX:SDOWShort
by wallstreetstocks
Iron Condor XLE 13 May 2022XLE 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 36.3%/year So that converted into daily is 2.3% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 79.3(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 1.8 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 81.1 BOT 77.5 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for DIA were TOP 335 BOT 314
AMEX:XLE
by exlux
Reaching last 2017 peak VS 2020 Halving0. The above chart was made in view of the possibility that the four-year cycles of BTC is likely to change to three-year when BTC reaches the 2017 peak before 2020 Halving. If you look at the main chart, you can easily understand. Therefore, the explanation is omitted. This article is not for sell or buy. If you liked this idea, please, 'Thumbs up', 'Follow', 'Comment'~^^ < 2014 ~ 2017 > F1( 11488% ), A1( 87% ), B1( 43% ), C1( 54% ), D1( 66% ), E1( 1606% ) < 2018 ~ 2020 > F2( 2430% / 10359% ), A2( 71% ), B2( 38% ), C2( 57% ), D2( 69% ), E2( 305% / 1580% ) 1. the comparison of indicator : 50MA, 100MA, 200MA 2. Current Coin Market Status - Coin Market Cap : $ 325 Billion - Bitcoin Dominance : 62.2% - Volume by National Currencies : USD( 74.8% ), JPY( 14.7.0% ), KRW( 5.8% ) 3. The Comparison of Coin Market Cap - Coin Market Cap : $ 325 billion - Stock Market Cap around the world : $ 50 trillion / 0.68% - Korean Stock Market Cap : $ 1760 billion / about 18.5% - Samsung Electronics Cap : $ 230 billoion < Coin Market Cap 4. Futures Expiration date - CME : On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm - CB0E : X 5. Korean Premium - BTC(3.5%), ETH(3.5%), XRP(3.5%), *** GTO(28.0%), STORM(7.5%), GNT(5.5%) 6. Other Long-Term BTC Forecasts - A similarity with the 2015 bottom &Influence of halving - The rising curve by pattern - A similarity with the 2015 double bottom
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by pkb6698
53
CANE - Fertilizer Shortage TradeIt's a Brave New World. Fertilizer was facing a shortage going into 2022 (like most commodities, it has had a undersized amount of investment, with tech seeing most of the in flows) but after the Putin YOLO (that's my ELI5), potash is now in shortage. Using that fact as a basis for expanding my commodity thesis to include more food commodities. I picked CANE because of the chart. Sugar has not caught bids like soy and corn and it's chart is a screaming buy. Before smashing the market buy button like an ape, watch the long standing resistance level we are at right now. This resistance has held since 2017 so this is a critical level. I am expecting a retest at the 9.75 level where I will be looking at the volume response. I'm so itchy to buy that I might buy regardless of response, the tailwinds are simply too strong to ignore. It is taking a great deal of restraint to wait for a response but since it is such a vital level and I want the best entry possible, patience and watching volume response is the name of the game. I will update with entry price. Happy hunting, Good luck, and God speed.
AMEX:CANELong
by SloppySeconds
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May XLEXLE Energy Sector 9 - 13 May The weekly VXXLE> Volatility Index for XLE Energy Sector Implied = 38.6 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 38.6 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.35% My historical product is telling me with 1.2x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 38.93 / sqrt(52) = 5.4% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 82.7% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 87.4 BOT - 78.5
AMEX:XLE
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPY Iron CondorSPY 9 - 13 May The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index VIX = 30.2 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 31.3 / sqrt(52) = 4.34% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 90% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 429 BOT - 394 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 429Call Sell - 432Call Buy 394Put sell - 391 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.32 expectancy So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 89.4% * 0.32 - 10.6%*1 = 18.6ROI after 100 trades
AMEX:SPY
by exlux