Major earnings are times to hedge or BTDAs far more eloquent and technical writers have covered (spotgamma, etc) - it's very clear that the markets in general are driven by single name options on the largest market cap companies.
And to help visualize just how much volatility can happen around earnings on these single names, I wanted to be able to visualize those earnings dates and impacts against some of the major benchmark ETFs like SPY or QQQ.
So far, I hadn't seen a place that gives this a more clear presentation so here is my first attempt at visualizing just how large the ripples are from the "megacaps" (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, etc) in a very "glanceable" way.
Introducing this indicator here first!
Earnings Date Highlighter - from0_to_1
Easily see the earnings dates from top market movers or the top holdings of your favorite ETF!
ETF
Bitcoin - Heavy Capital Exit from Bitcoin ETF After labour dayBitcoin is lower than the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its descending channel
The risk on sentiment in the US stock market or the entry of capital into bitcoin ETFs has resulted in the start of the upward movement, and after bitcoin in the specified supply zone, it can be entered into bitcoin sell
It should be noted that heavy fluctuations and shadows are possible due to the movement of whales in the market, and the capital management of capital in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
Bitcoin - Bitcoin is waiting for an important week!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. After reaching the supply range, Bitcoin has moved in its downtrend and is currently oscillating in its corner pattern
In case of risk off sentiment in the US stock market or withdrawal of capital from Bitcoin ETFs today, we can witness the continuation of the downward trend. You can enter sell trades after breaking the bottom of the specified pattern
In case of risk on sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETFs has led to the failure of the pattern in the upward direction and it is possible to enter Bitcoin purchase transactions
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached 60 thousand dollars!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its descending channel
In case of risk aversion in the US stock market or withdrawal of capital from Bitcoin ETFs today, we can witness the continuation of the downward trend. But it is better to enter into sales position within the specified supply zone due to the reward to the more appropriate risk
If Bitcoin reaches the demand zones and continues to risk on sentiment in in the US stock market or invest in ETFs, you can enter into purchase position from these zones
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
Crypto At A Crossroads: Is This Time Different?In this analysis we're going to take a look at TOTAL3, which is the total marketcap of crypto excluding BTC and ETH. In other words, all 'smaller' altcoins.
As seen on the chart, the altcoin market has been in a dire state since the start of April, almost 5 months at this point.
For now, the bearish channel pattern stays intact. I'm anticipating some kind of breakout in the near future, we simply can't trade within this pattern forever.
Looking at recent history, the bears have the short-term overhand since we rejected the top resistance yet again. However, once a support/resistance is used too many times the market anticipates it and will trade against it. This means that bulls might wait for investors to short in huge numbers and start to buy and cause a minor short-squeeze.
Personally, I'm leaning bullish. Alts have gotten a severe beating over the months and are currently looking quite attractive, especially with BTC trading around 63k and a very high BTC Dominance.
For now, we're in a grey area. Wait until this pattern breaks for long-term entries.
Bitcoin - Will the rise of Bitcoin continue?!Bitcoin is above EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel
The current price range will be very important in terms of determining the future direction of Bitcoin
In case of risk off in the US stock market or capital withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs today, after the bottom of the ascending channel breaks, we can see a downward trend
In case of continued risk on in the US stock market or the entry of capital into ETFs, the path of climbing to the supply zone will be paved, and we will look for bitcoin sales positions in the supply zone
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
ETHUSD - Ethereum will go below 2500 dollars?!Ethereum is below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the 4H timeframe and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel
If the upward and downward movement continues towards the specified supply and demand zone, you can look for Ethereum buying and selling positions with the appropriate risk reward
It should be noted that these zones are at the intersection with Ethereum's weekly pivot and transactions in these areas will be short-term.
BTCUSD -Bitcoin will go above 60,000$?!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the 4H timeframe and is trading in its descending channel
In case of risk aversion in the US stock market or withdrawal of capital from Bitcoin ETFs today, we can witness the continuation of the downward trend. We will look for Bitcoin buy positions within the specified demand zone.
In case of continued risk-taking in the American stock market or the entry of capital into ETFs, the path to the level of 64,000 dollars will be paved. But before that, we need to see the authentic breakdown of the descending channel
The Bitcoin LottoRemember when the excitement of the lottery was all about the potential of life-changing wins from just a small ticket price? Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has emerged as the new frontier of that thrilling potential. Once priced at a humble $1,000, Bitcoin was accessible and brimming with promise. Today, with its value as high as $60,000, the landscape has undeniably transformed, offering new opportunities and considerations for investors worldwide.
Bitcoin isn't just a digital currency; it's a revolution that's reshaping financial markets, much like the anticipation of hitting the jackpot. However, unlike the traditional lottery, Bitcoin investment isn't purely about luck—it's about smart, informed decision-making, historical insight, and future potential. Imagine being part of a technological evolution that's not just a game of chance but also a calculated step toward financial empowerment.
When navigating these markets, you want to stay clear of the echo chambers. We have had tails of "98k next month and $135,000 In December" back in 2021.
The main issue with the sentiment at the current levels, are it seems everyone and their dog bought Bitcoin under $20,000 at the exact bottom. They were also calling longs at 69k.
It's an inflation beater, it's just had 12 ETF's approved, there's a price multiplier, sell your house and buy Bitcoin. It looks like Trump might win back the White House and of course, he has endorsed Bitcoin.
The question shouldn't really be "where does this go" instead it should be "why isn't it there yet".
I've joked a couple of times - If you bought a house at 69,000 in 2021 and now in 2024 it's worth 59,000 should you sell it or hold it, I have had replies like "You should have bought Bitcoin"...
This is not a bash against Crypto; it's knowing the value and understanding the perception vs reality dilemma.
The controlled aspect of the move up from 15k to 73 and that high being just enough of a liquidity grab much like 65k to 69k. Years apart, means there is a lot of control in an asset many claim "Cannot be controlled".
The sentiment was all about Freedom and liberty; no institutional control, no government control - Go Trump, Go Blackrock.
My questions remain, If you were lucky in at sub 10k prices - you have had a good trade (providing you profited obviously) Paper gains are not wins.
But where does the additional funding come from for a double of it's current price? Why are we not at 100k+ already after a Trump endorsement, a halving, a price multiplier, 12 ETF's approved?
The world of Social media has made it easier for keyboard warriors to catch every bottom, sell every top (yet never sell anything) and claim paper gains to the moon.
Investing doesn't need to be the same as a lotto ticket. It just needs a good understanding of why liquidity moves the way it does and who's side the profits usually come back to.
Anyway - food for thought this weekend! Have a good one.
Stay safe
ETH/USDT 1D Trade idea It's no secret, Ethereum has been struggling this Bullrun.
Outperformed by Solana and other new emerging L1's, a permabearish ETH/BTC chart and losing market share in terms of volume on chain to its competitors.
The daily chart is a difficult one to digest as a fan of ETH, despite the ETF approval and the institutional investment that has come with it, the trend is an obvious downtrend of late and shows no signs of changing anytime soon...
The ETH/BTC pair is a similar story only the downtrend has been the case for much longer, unable to keep up with bitcoins price gains. Bitcoin is currently -20% from its ATH set earlier this year, Ethereum is yet to break its previous ATH set in '21 of $4850, -47% at current price which is way off BTC.
For me there are two possible entries:
- A mid range reclaim would then target a range high move going into the end of the year.
- A safer entry of filling the wick set in the beginning of august with a slow grind down, sweep liquidity, reclaim and pump from there.
Both situations would require BTC to behave as always.
Kraneshares China Internet ETF | KWEB | Long at $26.00The "beginnings" of a change in the downward trend of China's tech stock market may be starting to unfold. The price of Kraneshares China Internet ETF AMEX:KWEB has finally reconnected with my selected simple moving average (SMA) which often means further price consolidation or future price breakout from the overall mean. I'm not saying this will happen immediately and this particular SMA likes to be tested to "fake out" buyers and sellers (sometimes over months or years). Plus, there are price gaps in the low BER:20S on the daily chart that often get filled before a run. But for the early birds out there, like myself, AMEX:KWEB at $26.00 is in a personal buy zone as a starter position.
Target #1 = $30.00
Target #2 = $37.00
Target #3 = $49.00
Target #4 = $100.00 (very long-term view...)
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Is Forming An Intraday Bullish SetupIf we take a look at the hourly chart of BlackRock Bitcoin ETF with ticker IBIT, we can see nice and clean five-wave intraday rally from the lows, followed by an a-b-c corrective setback with first support at 32 area, while second deeper one would be around 31 area. So, seems like it's forming a nice intraday bullish setup formation, thus watch out on a bullish continuation, while it's above 28 invalidation level, just keep in mind that bulls may step in above 34.15 level.
US500 - Roadmap to 6kHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 US500 has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in red.
As long as the $5000 round number holds, I expect further bullish continuation towards the upper bound of the channel and $6000 round number.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
GOVT ETF: Bullish Reversal on the Horizon?The GOVT ETF, representing U.S. Treasury Bonds, shows signs of a potential bullish reversal, according to our proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System.
Key Indicators:
Z-Score:
The Z-Score has surged to 1.60, signaling an overextension to the downside in the past months. This indicates that the recent downward momentum might be exhausted, leading to a possible trend reversal.
Z-Score of RSI:
The Z-Score of RSI at 1.72 shows a significant bullish momentum shift. This suggests that the asset might be gaining strength, with buyers stepping in to push prices higher. The crossing above 0 confirms that bullish sentiment is currently prevailing.
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD):
The CVD indicator reflects a strong buying pressure, as demonstrated by the marked shift from deep negative territory (-451,481,504) towards a less pronounced negative reading. This shift suggests that the selling pressure has weakened, and buyers are beginning to dominate the market.
Price Action:
The price has broken above the green momentum cloud, signaling a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Given the alignment of other indicators, this could be the beginning of a bullish phase for GOVT.
Projection:
Over the next quarter, GOVT is likely to experience a bullish correction, driven by strong buying momentum. The ETF could target resistance levels in the $25.00-$26.00 range if the current momentum continues. The Z-Score and RSI suggest that the upside could be substantial as the ETF looks to recover from recent losses.
However, caution is warranted if the Z-Score or RSI starts to diverge negatively, as it could indicate the potential for a correction or consolidation before resuming the uptrend. Monitoring these indicators will be crucial to confirm the strength of the reversal.
Based on the proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System, GOVT appears poised for a bullish quarter. Investors looking to capitalize on U.S. Treasury Bonds might find this an opportune time to consider GOVT as a potential buy.
Bitcoin Reversal After Hitting Demand AreaIn my two most recent BTC analyses I talked about an ideal area for entry in case BTC reversed from the top yellow resistance of the channel it has been trading in for 6 months at this point.
As expected, the green area on the chart has functioned as a huge area of demand, right in between the supports (yellow and purple). The drop was a bit more steep than initially anticipated due to a big sell-off in the stock markets, but the reversal is here nevertheless.
At this moment it's still unclear whether BTC will find its way up all the way towards the top of the channel yet again. The daily shooting-star wick suggests that bulls took over in the short-term, however.
As mentioned in previous analyses, BTC is currently trading in a longer term grey zone. I'm bullish above the top yellow resistance and bearish below the bottom purple support. It's not the time for long-term longs or shorts, in my view.
Remember my last ETH analysis where I talked about the initial bearish shock after the spot ETF approval (we saw the same with the BTC spot ETF). If the BTC ETF is any indication, we will enter a long-term trend from here.
Ethereum ETF Launch Causing Temporary Crypto Dump!Last week was the official launch of the long anticipated Ethereum spot ETF. Sadly, the markets dumped right after trading went life.
We have seen the exact same thing happen earlier this year with the BTC spot ETF launch, where the ETF lost over 26% of its value in the first 7 trading days. The Ethereum ETF is currently trading at -12% after 7 trading days.
Historically, great crypto news has ALWAYS caused some kind of dump. See the analysis below for reference:
Although we're going down, I think it's a merely temporary dump. Like mentioned in my most recent BTC analysis, I think that the green area on the chart is the perfect area to start buying in again in the hopes of a turnaround in the ETF's trading direction.
Share your thoughts on whether this analysis makes sense or not. Happy to hear what you think!
Bitcoin Update | Is bitcoin following 2023 chart? Bitcoin Update
(Weekly-TF)
Is bitcoin following 2023 chart?
In 2023,
-Major Supply was $GETTEX:23K-25k, 2 Times rejected from there.
-In Q1, BTC brokeout the Resistance/Supply!
-BTC pumped $16K to $31K. Almost +90% pumped.
-Flipped the supply & tested it 2 times as a support.
-Total '7 Months consolidation : 30K to 25K
-BTC formed a mega bullish ''Flag Pattern''
-Flag brokeout in Q4 (Oct Month)
-Started the 3rd wave bull rally in Q4.
In 2024,
-Major Supply : $63-57k, 2 times rejected from there.
-In Q1, BTC brokeout the Resistance/Supply!
-BTC pumped GETTEX:39K to $74K. Almost +90% pumped.
-Flipped the supply & tested it 2 times as a support.
-Total 5 Months consolidation till now : $70k to 60k
-BTC forming a mega bullish Flag Pattern!
what next? 🤔
Like 2023,
- btc may consolidate 2 more months of Q3 (Aug-Sep)
- we may see the Flag will breakout in Q4 (Oct Month)
- will start the 5th wave bull rally in Q4
It is just a speculation, there is no guarantee that what happened in the past will happen in the future. #DoYourOwnResearch
If you like the Update, please boost & follow! Thanks.
Less is more...If you don't know me, I have been a trader a very long time. Nearly 25 years to be exact.
Over the years, I have spent a lot of time studying a wide array of techniques, tools, patterns and market sentiment. Lucky enough, the markets have also been very kind to me.
I've been fortunate enough to have two trading books published by large traditional publishing companies. So it's safe to say, I live and breathe trading.
I am going to do a series of posts here covering a couple of key educational topics - starting with Elliott Wave theory.
When it comes to Elliott Wave theory, there seems to be a love hate relationship for many people. Some get it, some see it as not relevant. To be honest, both are correct.
Now before you jump on the high horse "it doesn't work for crypto" - let me start by saying, this is not a lesson on how to use Elliott Theory. I covered that in these posts below;
And step two;
In terms of using Elliott, it's not as simple as trying to figure out each and every move. (this is often why, it does not work.) Instead the benefit of Elliott, is to accept it as a bias tool that aids in understanding the current market sentiment.
We often see posts online about things like the Wall Street cheat sheet. I also covered this in another post here on @TradingView
Where the theory has any real value, is simply to obtain a bias. The market is always searching for liquidity. In order to obtain liquidity, the market needs to attract players for the game.
Now, you have probably entered a trade and felt almost immediately that the market has pushed against you, it's out to get you and the brokers are playing 1 vs 1 against you.
This is where sentiment really comes in.
As a retail trader you have likely been exposed to tools such as RSI, MACD or even dabbled with Elliott and Wyckoff. But the reason the market does, what the market does, is not to get you as an individual, instead it's there to collect liquidity from a crowd.
Elliott wave theory isn't a technical tool, it's a sentiment tool.
So instead of trying to guess every internal and nested swing, you can make an awful lot of money by simply giving a directional bias.
I wrote an article in 2021 here -
About the emotions, I used the Simpsons to get the point across. The general idea is to understand where liquidity is likely to be and use that to make informed trading decisions.
If you have any specific questions, even topics you would like covered, leave a comment below. I'll add to this in another post as part of this series.
Stay safe and wish you all the best.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
ETH - Trading The Range, AGAIN!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per our previous analysis, ETH rejected the $3000 support zone and traded higher.
📈 ETH is still trading within a big range in the shape of a symmetrical triangle.
🏹 Thus, as it approaches the $3000 again, we expect a bullish movement towards the $3,500 round number.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich