ETHEREUM preparation on ETF The price is gathering the stop losses to climb to higher points and at every level we need confirmations which are all summed up in the price and price action alone will answer all the needs of a trader.
ETF
gold shortit will drop from that point like sheeetccoins. i really cant explain it how, even to myself, it's not easy, if it was a 1:1 rr yes, but not such a trade. i need to make a video about it but im not native english so it will be a shet video.
08/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,884.22
Last weeks low: $53,536.87
Midpoint: 58,710.54
A continuation of BTC selling off has lead to a loss of nearly $10,000 from Bitcoins price from high to low. This sell off is mostly propelled by large selling pressure caused by the German Government selling, however they still have $2.2B of BTC to sell and Mt.Gox begin repayments of stolen funds from 2014 causing increased selling pressure.
From a TA standpoint BTC is still LTF bearish, but the interesting part is the HTF's as BTC is retesting the 1D 200EMA as resistance since breaking below it last week. In a Bullrun you really don't want to see too much time spent under the 1D 200EMA, it should really act as strong support and a place to add to LONG positions.
This week I would like to see the Bullish OB+ @ $52,000 tagged before making a judgment on where BTC is going next. It's a strong support area that will attract price too it, TA says this is a good area to go LONG but this is definitely not a blind bid environment. It also happens to be a 30% drop from ATH which has been a common Bullrun correction in the past.
This week my focus is on the ETH ETF updates, the S-1 forms rumoured to be due tomorrow, then it's down tot the SEC to turn them around. ETH is around $3000 with sentiment at yearly lows, definitely an opportunity there.
Also the BTC1D 200EMA is a point of contention and an important S/R level.
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Could Be Finishing A CorrectionBlackRock Bitcoin ETF with ticker – IBIT looks like a nice and clean A-B-C correction that is right now sitting at interesting support area for A=C, but to confirm support in place and bulls back in the game, we need to see sharp or impulsive recovery back above 36.43 level.
Bitcoin Downtrend Confirmed: What's Next?Bitcoin has been falling off hard over the last couple of days. While we're currently trading almost 10% above the 53.4k lows, the downtrend has been established and BTC bulls are losing the fight in the short-term.
In my view, BTC has confirmed a longer-term downtrend by making a lower-low (56.7k was the previous low, blue line) and by falling through the 200-day SMA.
Yes, I can see us bounce a bit further because of indicators being very oversold, but I'm not expecting a new all-time high anytime soon.
My current most likely scenario is a move towards the dotted purple support over the next 2-3 months and a bullish reversal in Q4.
How do you seen BTC perform? Share your thoughts.
The best is yet to come. BTCAs you can see, BTC can still go further up. The cycle will be complete around September - October 2025, so we still have room for growing.
This is not financial advice.
AAVE Trend ShiftAAVE providing a decent risk reward opportunity to the upside. Another ETH Beta play setting up with ETF anticipation in July.
SOLANA Bull-Flag Pattern: Massive Move Incoming?SOLANA has been trading inside this pennant for nearly 4 months at this point. Since the pennant is being formed at the end of a strong bullish trend, I'm treating this as a bull-flag pattern.
My anticipation is that SOL (and many other tokens) are currently preparing for their next leg up. See signal on the chart.
So...Against popular belief, it is what it is.
unfortunately, it's not where people want it to be.
People want to think I am anti Bitcoin, or negative to the cause. Again, this could not be further from the truth. I'm just one of the lucky ones in early and care very little what it does at the moment.
It's clear people try to find bullish narratives especially when gone all in, but you have to remain a realist to make good money. Well at least over and over again.
I've shared various posts and stream over these last couple of years and still not likely to win popularity contests or crypto influencer of the year when you don't have rhyme nor reason to scream for 100k with a silly face on each thumbnail.
COT data still shows a negative LF sentiment - this is not big boys getting REKT, it's big players profiting at a premium (whose selling to the retail crowd?).
I have spoken to some level headed players in the space; one of which was Ryan at Uncomplication and we spoke about why the options would be good or bad for the short-term. Kind of kike an "if this, then that outcome".
As you can see from these options; option 1 and the preferred move would have been an extended accumulation phase. Thus giving enough fuel to take a real shot at the moon.
I also shared posts about the interesting movements down low, prior to this move up.
Now the issue for option 2 or 3 playing out was the limitations to the upside without a run on lower liquidity. So again, not needing to visit 12k or 9k - just to grab stops and cause serious doubt is enough in situations like this.
You might have already seen the Wall Street Cheat Sheet;
These things are as old as time.
As option 1 didn't play itself (we did not accumulate enough) the move up has all the hallmarks of a larger degree corrective.
Hence, in the ideal scenario; we would have seen a pullback allowing "fair value" to be accumulated, instead the CVD showed an existing positive position meaning profit taking up high. Thank you by the way.
This move would have been on the cards & the chances are we could be. However, the concern and issue is this caps the upside on a colossal scale to a little over 100k before a very, very long term corrective kicks in.
Still waiting on $135k as every influencer and their dog screamed for. Yup, still waiting from Nov 21, 22, 23 and nearing 24.
The question you need to ask, is after 12 ETF approvals and retail screaming MASSIVE Net-inflows, we just had a halving and of course the golden price multiplier. So the question is; what's pinning it down? where is the lead balloon?
Option 2 we talked about was if the price had created a classic ZIG-ZAG corrective move; 48-52k would have been optimal. The reason this was worse than option 1 was it means a longer time in limbo.
Now option 3 paints a combo of the two as you technically have either a weak move impulsive up leading to a long corrective or a corrective B giving a running flat B hence another slow burner down before some real momentum can be had.
I covered every major move over the last couple of years, now it's becoming more institutional it's only time. Just because retail wants 100k tomorrow, doesn't mean it has to play ball - especially not in the timeframe majority of retail want it to happen.
I think the move needs a natural play both ways here; now we have massive liquidity sitting lower and of course a lot of eager, anxious buyers higher. COT is a big telltale sign for me.
I also covered and published the move options in the book'
So when I say, nothing has changed. It means since talking about this the first time - we are still playing out the worst of the 3 options so it seems.
I'll finish with - 12 ETF's x Price Multiplier + Halving = WHY NOT $1 million yet?
Take it easy and see you on the next post.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
MKR DailyMKR flipping its Daily trend after retesting its Weekly trend. Very clean high time frame setup and has a narrative going for it with the ETH strength.
SOL - Wait for Solana's ETF!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 SOL has been bearish trading within the falling channel pattern marked in red.
Moreover, the $100-$115 is a strong support and demand zone.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand zone and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #SOLANA approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH Is Getting Ready To Pump!Comparing the BTC and ETH charts after ETF approval:
Following Bitcoin ETF approval, the price initially dropped in a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. However, after ETF trading began and inflows increased, the price pumped.
We're seeing a similar pattern with Ethereum. After the recent ETF approval, the price dipped, but a correction might already be underway. With Ethereum ETF trading expected to start on July 2nd, potential inflows could propel the price upwards.
Reagrds
Hexa
24/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67,290.83
Last weeks low: $62,212.60
Midpoint: $65,251.72
Despite the seemingly endless chop, last week was a very interesting one for BTC. Micro strategy added ~$800 worth of Bitcoin to their balance sheet, putting them at 226,000BTC, just over 1% of the entire BTC supply that will ever exist! In relation to microstrategy, Michael Dell has been sending some cryptic tweets reacting to the news that Saylor has added even more to their balance sheet. “Scarcity creates value” was his response. With the news that Dell is potentially buying or looking to buy Bitcoin it’s strange that BTC has dropped in price overall with overall sentiment in the space being very negative.
As we continue to slowly sell off and alt oins continue to get destroyed in both their stable and BTC pairs, I would like to see a clear capitulation wick with obvious strength on the bounce. It’s hard to say at what level that will come to, many are calling for GETTEX:52K which is a clear Bullish OB+, so it could be there however that would be devastating for all alt coins and may/probably have a bearish effect on the launch of the ETH ETF which is coming in the near future, 1/2 weeks.
For this week it’s purely about survival and looking for signs of capitulation, max fear and showing of strength following any potential sell offs. A slow bleed down within a range is very hard to catch the bottom but it would be better to see clear signs of reversal.
Bitcoin In DANGER: Back to $20,000?Preface: I don't think that going back to $20k is the most likely scenario at this point in time. However, it's valuable to discuss different potential outcomes in an every-changing market. If you disagree and only want to look at one potential outcome it's up to you.
In this analysis I want to take a look at one of my more popular indicators; Bitcoin's Logarithmic Price Bands. In case you want to know more about this indicator, please check out the link on the bottom of this post.
Back in March I made an analysis with a similar title where I discussed the fact that the yellow logarithmic price band has historically proven to be a very strong resistance.
For example, last cycle's mid-cycle pump (summer 2019) found resistance on exactly the same area.
Same can be said for 2013. Both reversals from the yellow bands resulted in a >70% dump (high to low). A 70% dump would mean that BTC will go back to (roughly) 20k.
It's too early to say whether this analysis is correct, but I can imagine a world where this is possible. Compared to previous cycles, we went up too much and too fast with all the ETF news. A deep correction might be needed to get to the elusive 100k.
Happy to hear your thoughts in the comments 🙏
ETH Analysis:Comprehensive Review Across Different Time Frames🔍 Let's dive into today's analysis. Today, I want to thoroughly analyze Ethereum to provide a complete overview of the potential scenarios ahead.
Bitcoin Analysis
📉 First, let's take a look at Bitcoin. In the 4-hour timeframe, we found support at 64429. After breaking the high of 65389, we set a higher low in this timeframe. From a Dow Theory perspective, we are seeing the first signs of a trend reversal. If we set another higher high and higher low, we can confirm an upward trend.
📈 An important aspect of this trend change is that buying volume needs to enter the market. As you can see, the green candle volume is gradually increasing. We now need price confirmation for an early long position entry. Dow Theory confirmation can be a good trigger, but if the price doesn't correct, candle confirmation above 66719 can serve as a suitable long trigger. RSI has also given its confirmation by breaking 50.91.
📉 For short positions, confirming a candle below 64429 remains a strong trigger. Given the current downward momentum, there's no need to complicate things unnecessarily. Simply confirming a candle below this support is sufficient for a short position, with RSI breaking below 32.53 providing additional confirmation.
⚠️ Remember, we are in a large range box. When the high wave cycle (HWC) is in a range, we shouldn't expect our positions to yield significant profits or for the market to move sharply and hit our targets.
### Ethereum Analysis
🔍 Now let's move on to our main focus, Ethereum (ETH).
Weekly Time Frame
📅 Starting with the weekly timeframe. Alongside Bitcoin's rise from 25k to 74k, Ethereum also climbed from its 1500 support, coinciding with a curved trendline, up to 4k. It formed a significant resistance at 3873 and then began correcting, reaching around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, finding support at 2922.
📈 A major catalyst for Ethereum's support at this level was the announcement of the approval of an Ethereum ETF, which generated considerable hype. As a result, since that day, everyone has been waiting for the ETF's launch date. This has created significant bullish sentiment around Ethereum. By analyzing the total2 to total3 ratio, Bitcoin, and Tether dominance, we can infer that money flow is shifting towards Ethereum, likely because traders and whales believe that buying before the ETF launch will be profitable in the future. Technically, we can see that it reached the 0.382 Fibonacci level, and as selling volume decreased and the SMA25 intersected the price, a new upward momentum began. In my opinion, a combination of technical factors and the ETF news has created significant hype for Ethereum.
💸 For spot buying in the daily timeframe, it's better explained, but if you buy only in the weekly timeframe, you should wait for a break above 3873. Breaking the 70 level in RSI can provide additional confirmation for your buy.
📉 If the 2922 support, which aligns with the 0.382 level, breaks, we could move towards the golden zone of Fibonacci, between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels, with a target around 2200.
Ethereum to Bitcoin Price Ratio
📉 Next, let's analyze ETH/BTC, which shows the price ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin, helping us understand the money flow direction. Since mid-2022, Ethereum's price relative to Bitcoin has been declining. This doesn't mean Ethereum's price dropped, but rather that Bitcoin's price increased more significantly.
📈 After reaching the Demand zone, this chart made a fake breakout below this zone and returned to it, reaching its descending trendline. With the current hype and money flow into Ethereum, we expect this trendline to finally break. After breaking the trendline, the next obstacle is the SMA99. If Ethereum clears these hurdles, it could see a 56% increase relative to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin also trends upward during this period, Ethereum could experience significant growth in the ETH/USDT chart.
📉 If Ethereum continues to decline relative to Bitcoin, the next target could be 0.04307.
Daily Time Frame
📅 Moving to the daily timeframe. In addition to the weekly Fibonacci, we can draw another Fibonacci on this timeframe. The 0.618 level of this Fibonacci overlaps with the 0.382 weekly Fibonacci, creating a significant support at 2873. After breaking the trendline discussed in previous analyses and the ETF approval news, Ethereum made an upward move.
📉 Currently, it has reached resistance at 3894 and is correcting, forming a range between 3457 and 3642. Breaking either of these levels could move the price to the bottom or top of the range.
📈 For spot buying, breaking 3642 is risky; the main resistance is 3894. Breaking either of these levels allows you to buy. RSI can also assist in spot buying; breaking 52.04 allows buying after price confirmation. For shorting in a market downturn, 42.84 is a suitable trigger. For futures positions, let's look at the 4-hour timeframe.
📉 In this timeframe, the price, after reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level, created a range between 0.618 and 0.382, visible in the daily timeframe as well.
📈 We have two main triggers for long and short positions. The main long trigger is breaking 3629, with RSI breaking 61.57 for additional confirmation. For short positions, breaking 3402 is ideal. Use these triggers for opening positions. The target for long positions is 3875, and for short positions, it's 3185.
📉 If you want to open a short position earlier, confirming a candle below 3522 allows a low-risk short entry. This is happening now, and if the candle confirms below this level, you can enter a low-risk short position, but the target will be 3402, not 3185.
⚠️ The most crucial point in most analyses is that volume must confirm the trend. Always remember this to filter out and identify fake moves.
📝Ethereum's price movements are currently influenced by a mix of technical levels and fundamental news, particularly the upcoming ETF. Monitoring key support and resistance levels in different timeframes, along with volume and RSI confirmations, is essential for making informed trading decisions. Keep an eye on market trends and news updates to adapt your strategy accordingly.
🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM): Leveraging AI Growth The iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) is a strategic vehicle for gaining exposure to the burgeoning Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector.
Investment Thesis:
* The artificial intelligence revolution is driving significant growth across numerous industries.
* Identifying individual AI winners can be challenging. IGM offers diversified exposure to this transformative sector by holding leading technology companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, all heavily invested in AI development and integration.
* A recent stock split enhances IGM's accessibility for a broader range of investors.
* IGM boasts a compelling historical performance record, and its future potential is bolstered by the anticipated outsized growth of the AI market.
Growth Potential:
Our analysis suggests that a $200,000 investment in IGM has the potential to reach $1 million within a 9-16-year timeframe, contingent upon the degree to which AI penetrates and expands the global economy.
Risk Considerations:
* IGM's performance is intrinsically linked to the success of the AI sector. Underperformance in AI could lead to corresponding weakness in the ETF.
Conclusion:
The iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF offers a well-diversified approach to capturing the substantial growth potential inherent in artificial intelligence. By investing in a basket of leading technology companies at the forefront of AI innovation, IGM provides a compelling opportunity for investors seeking long-term capital appreciation.
17/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,207.85
Last weeks low: $65,079.20
Midpoint: $7,643.52
Bitcoin over the last week is in a clear downtrend, despite midweek volatility caused by the CPI & FOMC news events. The results of those news events overall were positive and we saw the reaction of that with a move from 0.25 level to range high. Yet price rejected yet again from the '21 ATH / range high levels before printing Lower highs and Lower lows making BTC LTF bearish.
Altcoins are being destroyed during this chop, clear downtrends sub 4H 200EMA and a lot are retesting their 1D 200EMA levels for the first time in months. Only a handful of well performing exceptions are surviving but even they are running out of steam e.g. LSE:ONDO , LSE:TON , $JASMY.
I think I could see a sweep of the previous weeks low, before we see any sort of rebound and aim for MIDPOINT. The 4H 200EMA is sat at just below MIDPOINT and so there is huge resistance there, a rejection of that level continues the LTF downtrend.
This week I am continuing to monitor the Bullish Divergences that are appearing on the 4H & 1D and looking for any clear reversal in trend direction. For now I cannot see what catalyst would be responsible for turning this price action bullish, but that is what my focus is on, until then this is a no trade environment in my opinion.
ETH/BTC REVERSAL?Could we finally see a breakout of the downtrend channel now that ETHBTC has bounced off the range bottom?
Bullish scenario: If we see a breakout of the trend channel and new HH & HL then ETH could finally be ready to move up after the approval of the ETH ETF's.
Bearish scenario: If the range low is lost and price is excepted at those levels then the downtrend continues...
I do think the general market did not expect an ETF approval so soon and so the inflows we saw for BTC were just not ready to capitalise on the ETF.
Bitcoin's Best Worst-Case ScenarioPreface: BTC's long-term trend is till bullish, so most likely scenario at this point is a continuation of the trend. Still, it's important to consider different views.
Bitcoin has been trading within the 70k-60k area for the better part of three months at this point. This came after making a (minor) new all-time high. This is the first all-time high that occured before the halving, so rather special.
Worst-case scenario for the bulls would be that we lose the long-term uptrend. Best worst-case would be a strong reversal from the bottom support. This support has been holding for >5 years, so I'd assume that a lot of buyers will be waiting around the support.
If we extrapolate history, Bitcoin should top out somewhere in Q4-2025. A move towards the support during the next few months and then a year of straight bull would fit this view.
More info on how I came to Q4-2025 here:
Do you think Bitcoin is going to make a new all-time high soon? New bear market? Share your thoughts.
Altcoins Still In A Bear Market? This Indicator Says YESIn this analysis I want to take a look at an indicator that is not often mentioned, but can say a lot of interesting things about the current state of the market.
Note: we only have a population of 2 (N=2) to look at and deduce information from, so take it with a grain of salt.
The indicator in question is the value of TOTAL3 (total crypto marketcap minus ETH and BTC) divided by the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD). This indicator measures the strength of altcoins compared to BTC.
In other terms:
Indicator goes up = altcoins outperforming BTC, often during altseasons.
Indicator goes down: BTC outperforming alts, often during bear markets.
In the last 6 years there have been 2 strong alt seasons, which occured at a later stage during the Bitcoin bull-market. The indicator touched the bottom support and shot all the way up towards the top resistance. This caused a massive bull-run in alts, where many did a 10x or more in a matter of weeks.
Looking at the past, it seems that there's still more value to be lost in alts relative to Bitcoin. Assuming we have to touch the bottom support, of course.
Furthermore, nothing about this chart suggests that altcoins are a good investment at the moment. They're only losing more value against BTC, even during the latest move from 30k > 70k.
For now, I'd put an alarm around the bottom support. Once the indicator touches that area it's historically an AMAZING time to switch your Bitcoin to alts.
Happy to hear your thoughts!
ETHEREUM ETF Can SEND $ETH to $7300The Bitcoin etf
Basically doubled the price of #BTC
from the lows post etf trading to our recent peak in March
A similar outcome and performance for Ethereum
Would send #ETH to the 1.618 Fib extension
This would be epic for altcoins, memecoins and DEFI
what do you think
do you agree?
The Massive Potential of June's BULL-RUNNow that all of the speculations are pointing to the approval of the Ethereum ETFs , along with the positive CPI reports this week, it's safe to assume that we're about to break out of the current accumulation period.
After +60 days of correction, everyone is eager to explore the potential of the next bull-run, so let's delve right into it. HOLD YOUR BREATH!
- STAGE ONE: MAKING A NEW HIGHER HIGH
In case you haven't noticed, on the 4th of this May, we have already broken out of the downtrend that lasted since the first day of April. However, we haven't made any higher high yet, so the bearish structure is technically still valid.
Thanks to a whole bunch of good news and won rounds for crypto in the regulatory and judicial war, starting with RIPPLE surviving court and -hopefully- ending with the Ethereum ETFs approval, a break of the bearish structure seems inevitable to me, leading to a surge towards the 700B milestone.
This is going to significantly refresh the alt-coins market, making up for April's harsh losses.
- STAGE TWO: SELLING THE ETHEREUM ETF NEWS
Now that things are looking greenish for the bulls, it's time for the exchanges to make money too. A minor correction and a retest of the 700B level would be reasonable, liquidating a ton of long positions, reigniting the trauma of the resistance that ended the February - March Mini bull-run and shaking more and more hands.
And of course, there's the excuse of 'selling the news' for the exchanges to use before liquidating the crypto Futures market.
I expect the traditional Alt-coins (ETH, XRP, ADA, etc..) and AI coins to perform extremely well at this stage.
- STAGE THREE: THE JUNE BULL-RUN
May wasn't as tough as we had expected, right?
Well, this cycle is just getting started surprising us. As June approaches, Alts should see positivity due to the impact of the adoption of Ethereum. And of course, the largest piece of that green cake will be handed to the holders of any Alts related to Ethereum.
We should see AI coins continuing their dazzling performance, promising projects related to RWA and Solana's competitors performing really well at this stage.
I expect this stage to end when Ethereum makes its new ATH and as July approaches, then we should see Bitcoin taking back the lead and making its REAL ATH. Because.. you know.. 73K wasn't a real ATH (whispers).
In my opinion, this scenario can be invalidated in two cases ..
First case is if the Ethereum ETFs get disapproved.
Second case is if we somehow revisit the current cycle bottom (highlighted on the chart).
So that was it! My humble advice?
- DO NOT use leverage, you don't need to challenge the exchanges and risk your capital. Enjoy a happy and calm June by buying your favorite coins on the Spot market.
- DO NOT hold your alts for too long after Ethereum makes its new ATH. Bitcoin has to take back the lead and make its way to a new ATH. Don't worry, you will get many new opportunities during Bitcoin's bull-run.
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.
Bitcoin On-Chain: Is The Cycle Over Already?In this analysis I want to discuss a (most likely) unpopular view on the market. Namely, that the "cycle" is already over and that the peak is in for now.
Preface
This is not my most likely outcome for the markets. You can find my most likely outcome below:
Still, it's always advised to keep an open mind and explore different potential outcomes.
Overview
When we look at the last 7-8 years of Bitcoin's newly created addresses we can see that this value follows a clear boom-and-bust pattern. It peaks (green) during mania when everyone wants to step into the market and it declines after the market has topped (red).
For the people who are wondering about the November 2021 peak: on-chain data peaked in Q1-2021.
What this chart suggests is that the "mania" phase of the market cycle is over and that the top is either in or very close. Once the mania phase is over, crazy gains are more rare and trading is more difficult.
I'm interested to hear your thoughts on this idea. Like I said, it's not my most likely outcome, but it's possible that we've topped after the ETF mania.
