Etfs
MJ ETFMG Alt Harvest ETF primed for support bounce!I am finally back from vacation so I can start to post more TA again! I wanted to do some TA on a solid pot ETF I found a few weeks ago that appears to be loading up for a support bounce. MJ ETFMG Alt Harvest is a ETF made up of a bunch of high quality pot stocks. If you go to yahoo finance you can see everything in the holdings basket.
From a TA standpoint MJ has everything going for it to be on a uptrend reversal. Price has fallen for roughly a year now and if we look at previous lows $9 was the ATL. Current price is around $11 and its ATH got up to $45 in Sept 2018. Now while we may not see an ATH in the near future, but i certainly see price growth potential at least doubling from here within a year.
If we look at the MacD on the 10h we are primed for a climb. The total visible range shows us most investors understand an average price of $14. Now while we arent oversold completely on the RSI we dont necessarily need that in order to understand this might be a basic support bounce. With the economy raging into hyper inflation we could see a domino effect of harm to the economy that would increase MJs price naturally; depressed times shows a major increase in substance use. I will personally be going in on this and several other ETFs soon, I wanted to share this one with you guys because of the potential I see in it. I hope you all had a great holiday everyone! Let's make this coming year a profitable one! -DiMarco
XLC SPDR ETF long swing trade ideaI recently tweeted few ETFs that went looking good at the time, one of them was AMEX:XLC .
The ETF look much healthy and attractive now, the price managed to come back above the 200EMA and now it's above the 50EMA. This means that the uptrend is still intact, and for that reason I'm taking a swing trade on AMEX:XLC . This trade has the potential to yield a 1:3 risk-to-reward.
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GDX An Incomplete sequence Favors More DownsideThe Elliott wave view in GDX suggests that the main cycle from the August 20, 2020 peak is showing an incomplete sequence. Favoring more downside to happen based on sequence towards $24.80- $21.36 area lower before a turn back higher happens. While the short-term cycle suggests that the decline to $30.05 low ended wave 1 of (C) in 5 waves lower. Up from there, GDX did an expanded flat correction in wave 2 bounce.
While an initial 3 swing bounce ended wave ((a)) at a $31.59 high. Down from there, wave ((b)) also ended in 3 swings at $28.90 low. Then the bounce in ((c)) leg unfolded in 5 wave impulse sequence. In which, wave (i) ended at $30.16 high, wave (ii) ended at $29.95 low, wave (iii) ended at $31.54, wave (iv) ended at $31.19 low, and wave (v) ended at $31.77 high. Thus ended wave 2 as an expanded flat correction.
Below from there, GDX declined in 5 waves lower & ended small wave ((i)) of 3 at $30.15 low. And now doing a 3 swing bounce in wave ((ii)), which can see $31.29- $31.51 area before turning lower again. Near-term, as far as bounces fail below $31.77 high then ETF is expected to fail lower looking for more downside. Alternatively, if it breaks above $31.77 high then it can even see $33.01- $34.77 area higher before seeing sellers again.
Water supply ETF $CGW may explote to the upsideIs in a confirmed uptrend and now after a volatility contraction pattern (VCP), AMEX:CGW is showing a pivot buy just above $60. My trade will be buying above the pivot with a stop just below the 50-day MA and a target sell at $66. Low risk trade with a 2:1 risk/reward ratio.
NASDAQ:PIO , another water supply ETF is behaving very similarly but, I prefer AMEX:CGW because it has had better historical returns. But still, could be a good trade.
Some of the industry leaders are also showing the same bullish pattern. The ones that I have on my watchlist are NYSE:DHR and NYSE:AWK .
continued support for five g (FIVGthere should be continued support for fiveg stocks into the end of the year pushing FIVG back up toward $41
buy the dip sell gap close (SPY)pretty simple idea. if we gap down spx and we hold some new higher daily low early on, then break above premarket close by a significant margin, the index is a buy until gap is almost or all the way closed
volatility spike still expected by end of wed, thu morning
if we gap up and start to trade up, the higher targets can be used
The "SPY"Since September 20th, when we get close to the 200 ema (purple), we get a retracement towards the previous high before the next retracement process. A retracement of 61% would take the SPY to $463. The previous high was broken and we have a higher low as we are bouncing off of the 200 ema with a 20/50 cross.
I will avoid trading below this trendline | ARKKToday, we will look at ARKK, one of my favorite assets to trade.
What can we see right now? The price made a new local low last week, which took us to a 42% decline since the previous ATH on February 2021.
As you can see, this scenario already happened in the past, and ALL the time, we saw new ATH coming after that. That's why it's important to define what I will be expecting before taking new bullish setups on Cathie Wood's ETF.
The main element I want to pay attention to is the current descending trendline. Below that level, I will assume that I'm not in a solid situation to develop setups. Therefore, I want to see a breakout of it FIRST.
Most of the time, getting great opportunities is a matter of patience, and the most important thing is that we can't force the market to provide us with an opportunity; we can only wait. And, at the moment, the price is on a clear bearish trend, far from our filter. So, this post is more about "what I will not do" rather than what I'm expecting. So, my conclusion here is:
Until I don't see a breakout of that descending trendline, I will not risk my capital, and I will keep waiting. Let's see how much time we should wait for that to happen. Maybe a couple of months.
Thanks for reading, and feel free to add your view or charts in the comments.
ETFs and rising concerns (TL;DR at end)ETFs are by far the most popular form of investment, regardless of whether you are a parent saving up for your child's college or you're a multi-millionaire/billionaire banker, a good portion of your investments will be in exchange traded funds, regardless of whether that fund is for commodities, industries or indexes.
Since their first implementation in the 1990s, they've have grown rapidly as seen in the thumbnail of this idea ( AMEX:VOO ). In the words of Mr. Buffett himself, there is only one problem with index funds: "they're boring". You can't stand with your friends on the weekend at the barbecue and talk about all the trades you've made in response to crazy market action because you've got some fund manager who just holds the stock of everybody worth holding (in theory). All you do is put more money into it, or take money out of it.
However, recently I came to the realisation (like many other investors), they're becoming ludicrously priced. Not just the individual price but the overall market cap with companies like Blackrock and Vanguard holding quite conceivably hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars within ETFs. Now there are concerns regarding a potential crash in the ETF market or at least the funds that trade through indeces. As far as the cause of such crash, I wouldn't dare attempt to make some degree of educated guess as anything could happen. One may consider me rather cynical when it comes to this topic but I'm sure I'm not the only person who has a problem with losing money.
Now there is absolutely nothing one can do about a crash but there are other solutions to minimise losses especially in a market that is trading so dangerously high. I would personally (assuming I had the financial capacity) take out around 60-75% of my overall investments in ETFs and transfer them to AAA rated state issued bonds or simply reinvest the money in stocks I already hold. Then I would continue my regular dollar cost averaging approach to investment in ETFs (or whatever the frequency is that you add money to such funds) until such a crash may occur. At a given point, (depending on the fund and how severe the crash is) I would increase the frequency and amount of money I add to such funds as the price drop should cause them to appear very attractive. Understandably, many people will disagree with this approach as you are still setting yourself up to lose money (unless you remove all your money from the funds, while you still could potentially continue earning. This results in the investor being left in some sort of dilemma. Although this is another discussion for another day) and "past performance is no indicator of future results" but this is the approach I would take.
As usual, other opinions, facts, news and comments are always welcome so comment away and stay safe!
TL;DR: ETFs are trading very high in price (dangerously) and a potential crash is luring (if you have a cynical outlook).*
*See the last paragraph on what I would do, due to such a situation being upon us.
META BUY IDEAMETA has currently fell from it's All Time High to form a new Lower Low. The pullback is a healthy pullback forming at ABCD pattern. We have the initial High point which is our A then the fall to the Lower Low which is our B. Our C point could be represented by the current pullback that made a new Lower High. IF price does not break that last swing high, then we could see a push down past the last purple line to the blue lines which represents the 127 fib and 161.8 fib support levels. Three potential buy in opportunities would be, the double bottom support form on the bottom purple line and the blue zones below it. So, you have three Buy in targets that you could target to ride back up to the All time highs until it break from there to make a new All time high. This is only my opinion and not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before investing.
Establishing a position in QYLD - how and why QYLD is a covered call ETF. They write calls on stock they own to bring in more consistent and predictable income. They do this to generate returns via options, this is helpful if you don't know how or aren't comfortable writing calls on your stock. It would behoove you to establish small positions after they pay their dividend should you choose to buy in. This happens monthly so you'll have more opportunities down the road to add onto your position.
Their top holdings are VERY concentrated in the FAANG stocks.
Does well in neutral markets.
QYLD pays a hefty dividend of 11.94% or about $2.70/share annually
Here is the wise way to buy this ETF. Wait until the dividend is paid (monthly in this case), and then spread out your buys across the next several days. There is no sure way to tell when the sellers will be done selling, so you want to be strategic - be careful of how long you wait because you may miss the dip all together.
Note : QQQ returns are significantly higher over the long term. QYLD is NOT in my opinion a buy and hold forever investment. Use is as a hedge if you want, but however you use it I hope that this short idea helps clarify how to maximize your return with QYLD.
NASDAQ:QYLD
SPY Elliott Wave View: Should Extend Into New HighsShort-term Elliott wave view in SPY suggests that the cycle from October 01, 2021 low is showing a higher high sequence favoring new highs to follow. The internals of that rally is unfolding as an Elliott wave impulse sequence where wave 1 ended at $436.03 high & wave 2 ended at $426.36 low. Up from there, wave 3 unfolded with extension where lesser degree wave ((i)) ended at $441.68 high. Afterwards, wave ((ii)) ended at $431.54 low, wave ((iii)) ended at $458.49 high. Then wave ((iv)) ended at $453.83 low and wave ((v)) ended at $470.65 high.
Down from there, SPY made a pullback in wave 4 to correct the cycle from October 04, 2021 low. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at $465.26 low. Then wave ((b)) ended at $467.38 high and wave ((c)) ended at $462.05 low. Up from there, wave 5 remains in progress where wave ((i)) ended at $470.49 high and wave ((ii)) ended at $466.34 low. Near-term, while dips remain above $466.34 low and more importantly above $462.05 low expect SPY to extend higher towards $474.82- $480.04 area higher in wave ((iii)) before a pullback in wave ((iv)) develops.