Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - SaudSummary
• TASI / KSA break out of bull head & shoulders bottom trend reversal pattern.
• Indicates continuation of long-term upward sloping trend channel.
• Key Fibonacci zone targets marked on enclosed charts.
Bullish reversal is indicated as the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) (Saudi Stock Market) breaks out of a head & shoulders bottom reversal pattern at the start of the week. The pattern formed following the completion of a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the near-term downtrend.
A continuation of a long-term uptrend channel can be anticipated with an eventual rally back to the top of the channel. Fibonacci retracement and projection levels are marked on the enclosed charts to identify potential near and long-term price targets.
Nevertheless, a decisive daily close below the head at 7,396.60 is a failure of the above bullish scenario, while a daily close below the right shoulder at 7,808.54 puts the bullish scenario at risk and requires a new assessment.
Investors in US markets can access the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) ETF for exposure to the Saudi Arabia stock market. An upside breakout in KSA occurred this week as price closed above $30.56 on a daily basis. Support at the bottom of the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom reversal is at $28.97, while the bottom of the head is at $28.04. Fibonacci target levels for KSA are noted on the weekly chart below.
Etfs
A scaled entry plan for SOXLOne of the best long-term performers in the stock market is the semiconductor sector. With a strong likelihood that AI will change the world in the next 10-20 years and disrupt every other industry, there are big profits to be made in semiconductor companies that are heavily invested in AI research and provide the processors to power it.
That said, the current price point on SOXL is pretty high, so it makes sense to look for a lower entry. With the market (and especially the Nasdaq) turning downward this week on China trade war news, I've developed a scaled entry plan for SOXL. There are four entry points: the recent highs around 198, the high-volume node at 159, and the recent lows near 131 and 90. Normally I triple my position at each level, but I doubt we'll hit the bottom two targets on the current trade war news, so I'm weighting my entries a little more toward the two upper ones. I already made my first entry this morning near 198.
Semiconductors bounced downward from top of parallel channelSOXX has been making two parallel channels, and the other day it bounced off the top of the blue one. It's still within the green channel, however, so it's approaching a decision point soon where it will have to choose one or the other. If the fall continues, there could be a good buying opportunity near the bottom of the green channel and an even better buying opportunity near the bottom of the blue one. SOXX and its leveraged counterpart SOXL are my favorite trading instruments, so you best believe I'm going to be watching this closely.
Good buy with DGAZ for 12% ReturnGood swing trade on DGAZ for a 12% return as it looks like it will bounce off of the 1 hour EMA. DGAZ has been on an upward trend on the 1 hour graph.
Buy UWT for potential 20%+ returnUWT (Oil) is extremely undervalued in comparison to its price over the past couple years. Great buy for a potential 20%+ return.
JDST bullish; Gold prices likely bearish given US-China deal?JDST looks to be bullish, making higher lows in the recent weeks. Couple reasons why I think it's on the uptrend:
- Phase one of the China trade deal concluded bringing some stability to the world economy; generally this should reduce the demand for gold, lowering prices and increasing JDST, a gold miner BEAR.
- Gold prices have a very strong resistance around 1540 from May of 2012. It's already touched that resistance late September/early August this year and would need some serious momentum or world news to break that resistance, such as the US-China trade deal falling apart. I believe it's more likely that gold prices are on the way down, making an ETF like JDST increase.
What do you think? Please leave a comment with your thoughts!
WESTERN DIGITAL/WDC - LONG POSITIONI share my longterm expectation of this trade.
Memory prices stabilizing. This could bring great gains for this stock in the longterm view.
I am in this trade for a long time. But for those who are not in this trade yet...we got a pinbar on the 4H, which is first good sign for the entry if you still hesitate.
You can also wait for the daily candle confirmation.
LABU - watch the volume and trend lineBiotech has had a hard time of it lately due to both political risks related to the election and litigation risks from the opioid epidemic. All of this, of course, on top of broad market weakness due to the China trade war.
However, biotech earnings are better than most sectors this season, so the bear market likely won't continue forever. I've drawn a trend line on my 1-hour chart and am watching for an upward breakout. Today we had some nice volume come in as we recovered from oversold on the daily chart and achieved our first green day for some time. However, we fell short of the minimum 6 million shares I'd like to see to signify a true reversal. We also fell short of breaking my trend line.
I expect LABU will fall to about 25.50 before it's likely to get a real bounce.
Two alternatives to trade $VIXVIX Alternatives:
The chart shows two investable alternatives to trade the $VIX, these assets are $TVIX and $VXX.
Semiconductors need ascending triangle break to continueThe ascending triangle is one of my favorite chart patterns. To confirm a breakout, we need to enter the corner of the triangle and then break above the previous high that forms the top of the triangle. A confirmed breakout usually results in a move about half the height of the triangle, or about $9 per share in this case. One nice thing about this chart pattern is that it allows for a fairly tight stop loss. If we breach that lower trendline, the pattern is broken and we can exit quickly.
UGAZ Potential Buy Opportunity 7% ReturnNatural Gas has been consolidating after huge sell off today. UGAZ and Natural Gas has potential to bounce off the 1 hour 180 day EMA for a 7% return. Wait for confirmation of higher lows and higher highs before entering trade. Observe UGAZ during market open for confirmation of upward push.
Strong Buy Signal on the U.S. Internet Stocks.The FDN (First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund) which essentially covers the U.S. Internet Stocks, is now comfortably trading above the MA50 on the 1D chart on strong bullish candle action (RSI = 69.026, MACD = 2.230, Highs/Lows = 3.3271). Through this price action a strong buy signal has emerged and has to do with the similarities of the mid 2018 - 2019 price action with the late 2015 - mid 2016 sequence. Not only the MA periods (Death Cross followed by a Golden Cross) and candle action (Highs, Lows, consolidation phases) are virtually identical but also the price ranges (-27% decline from highs).
If a +21.50% rise follows, then the peak of the current bullish sequence would be near 161.00. We are long on this asset.
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DWT Potential Buy for 5% returnCrude Oil looks like it can potentially sell off which will drive DWT up. Look for higher highs during market open and for Crude Oil to sell of for a potential 5% return in one day.