Leveraged Decay: how to calculate itBrexit and currency hedging has thrown up the need for products such as SUP3 however there is danger in holding such leveraged products as SUP3 (3X Long GBP Short EUR). As path dependency of the currency picks up in volatility the arithmetic mean drifts below the geometrical mean.
This is most easily realised in the following example of an up and down fluctuation of 10%:
100 +10% = 110
110 - 10% = 99
We have lost 1% due to the path dependency having only moved up and down 10%
We can approximate the volatility drag using the following:
Volatility Drag = 0.5 * (Leverage) * (Standard Deviation) ^2
This comes from the formula for the geom mean:
Geom Mean = Arith Mean - 0.5 * SD^2
It is not precise but allows a proxy to be formed!
Etfs
IAU ProfitsThe IAU has treated me well through this Brexit vote. I entered back on May the 10th at $12.21, and I'm looking to take profit around the $13.10 mark, which would be about a 7.5% move to the upside.
If the markets continue to go lower, I can see gold going higher. It's important to keep in mind though the markets are moving with purpose and who knows when they'll cool off. Do I think gold is ready to turn back to the down side? Not yet. I believe gold is a safe haven investment for everyone, especially the people who are not market knowledgeable and are unsure where else to store their savings.
I would stay in gold a little longer, but I'm looking to take my profits after this nice move to the upside. Head on over to www.bearstobulls.com for more information on my trading and investing ideas!
pennies to thousands microcap etf above cloud enter on green barour candidates come from this spectrum of stocks-we look for stocks in 1-9 range because in our book on amazon we report this area is underflowed-does well after rate hikes-do well in slow growth arena-good for takeovers-have high inside ownership-over the long term outperform-we preach diversify among industry and candidates-always have stop loss orders- exit quickly-dollar cost average out-always have a few shorts and volatility candidates and large cap etfs-to balance you can outperform etf if you follow our rules look for the edge our philosophy use limits on thin stocks-never trade first 15 minutes wait to confirm
Nice time to short RSX ETFThat will be a good time, if we will have oil lower then now at the Monday.
South Korea ETF (EWY) Turnaround Chart PatternThe South Korea ETF (EWY) has formed a classic turnaround chart pattern with a Rectangle Bottom break in March, and a break of the 200 day moving average in April.
The 50 day moving average is approaching the 200 day moving average from down below and a Resurrection Cross looks imminent.
The South Korea ETF (EWY) has outperformed by S&P 500 by +600% as of April 28 2015.
South Korea just beat on their GDP last week, growing 0.8% in Q1 2015. The consensus estimate was 0.6%.
South Korea is forecast to overtake France's GDP per capita by 2020.
Source: www.guerillastocktrading.com
"Crude Oil" a Huge profit to be madeCrude oil is making new grounds with it soon to
come with its reverse pull back, same thing
happened in 2009 although there is a possibility
that crude can slide to support at 40$. either
way i will be easing my way into a positions
using the ETF UWTI which is priced very cheaply
at 3$ a share. also a big shout out to @Ricker for showing me UWTI