BTC - Path of least resistance and maximum painI'm not a conspiracy nut but giving room for belief in conspiracy theories, let's say the entire crypto market is a "washing machine" for various fronts. It just doesn't have any practical utility right now, that makes the world a better and safer place. The possibilities are endless but let's just say it hasn't been leveraged for any noble cause, yet. Sakamoto Natoshi would be turning in his grave should he know what his noble invention was being used for, if indeed it was a noble act from the get go.
Bottomline, it has a shade to it's existence, and as such can only be construed to serve malicious intentions of governments, authorities and the rich.
So it is always bound to opt the path of least resistance and maximum pain, as far as common folk are concerned, i.e. acting against them.
Now stepping into reality, considering common folk, retail traders and institutions who are involved in this charade.
Common folk: I meet people constantly who have never heard of bitcoin, also people who learnt about it's existence just now in 2024!
A subset of this common folk with some grasp of how world economics work and an appetite for risk want a piece of the action.
Retail Traders: I'm not sure if the term "retail traders" also encompasses the so called "whales". I'm assuming not. So let's say everyone working with a portfolio value of 1BTC or less. From this category (at least the sensible and well educated) never expected what happened in the first 3 months of 2024.
But now that we are where we are, they also want a piece of the action(including myself), knowing very well they could be too late at the scene.
Institutions: All the hedge funds and their 60+ grandpa managers who do not understand technology are also now a part of this charade, in addition to various tech companies and their CEOs, playing we know it all.
"Apparently" the whole rally is attributed to the ETF inflows from said institutions. And somehow there is this sense of unshakable faith in the air, if these institutions are already invested, BTC is bound for the moon and it can never look back again. There are preposterous articles on how any price below 70k was a buy!
Everything mentioned so far isn't an established fact! Let's now turn to tangible facts we know, our dear charts! Hoping and praying to the good lord, that this data is also not fabricated.
The 12 month candle on the left is as big as it's ever gotten. We still have 7 months left to go until the candle closes. And looking at the volume, we are at 450k on this particular exchange, compared to an average of ~2 million on previous full candle.
Assuming half a million traffic per quarter, this volume does make a lot of sense but what it doesn't correlate to, is the ETF's inflows. If anything, it should be double or triple the average based on all the news about the kind of money that's been inflowing. Very skeptical!
If I were any sensible and should I consider myself in the position of a market maker, I see a lot of paths testing and breaking supports(the beaten path), rather than price discovery(the road not taken). Because,
-who dares to buy any further?!
-retail is already late to the party, don't want that portfolio eroding
-institutions are "supposedly" already invested, who are they going to sell it too? They should be idiots to buy it all over again all the way to 100k, coz if nobody wants to buy now, who's gonna buy at 100k?!
-halving has reduced the supply, there is less supply for the next 3 quarters than the previous 12 month candles and it makes sense to buy/sell lower again than at the 100k or 130k area
On the contrary, looking at the perspective of taking bitcoin away from the common folk's reach, it does make sense to drive the price into the 6 figures. But then again, if you take it away from the common folk's reach, how is the so called "evil system", that's basically designed to prey on simple minds, supposed to work?!
I know, I know, I'm rambling! The point is, I don't see this going to the moon any time soon! And I could be completely wrong about this and may have already fallen for the trap that's set for all of us! Time will only tell.
Heartfelt thanks to anyone who's managed to reached thus far, please leave a like if you did like the read or teach me a swear word in your mother tongue down in the comments, for wasting your time! Peace!
