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SPY Cycle Patterns CRUSH Day Leads Bearish TrendingMy proprietary SPY Cycle Patterns are an advanced predictive modeling system based on Fibonacci, Gann, and price cycles. The most incredible thing about these patterns is they predict future price action/trends many days, weeks, and months in advance - very accurately. The accuracy ratio of the SPY Cycle Patterns is usually about 85 to 90%. There are times when it is wrong. My proprietary research suggests we have entered a very dangerous new crisis phase. The SPY will likely target $404 or lower (possibly $393). I'm posting this short video to help you prepare for what comes next. Follow my research.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by BradMatheny
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - PART IThis is a simple example of how anyone can attempt to understand price action, trade setups, and determine if the current trade setup is valid for any trading action. Unless you have a trading system that helps you identify highly successful trade setups, most people struggle to find opportunities before they turn into breakout trends (up or down). Ideally, most traders want to get into trades before the big breakout, or breakdown, happens. This video, part I of an extended series, will help you learn to use simple tools to identify qualified trade setups from invalid setups. You can trade whatever you want. But remember, the trend is your friend, and learning to understand price theory, trends, channels, and support/resistance is all you need to make better decisions. Watch this video to see if it helps you. Over the next few weeks, I'll create more videos highlighting simple techniques to help you become a better trader. I'll review dozens of charts and highlight what works and what doesn't. Trading is a matter of managing risks while attempting to generate profits. This will be a great way for me to share my thoughts with all of you while trying to help you learn techniques to help you build solid skills. Hope you enjoy this first video.
NASDAQ:CSCOEducation
by BradMatheny
19
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - IIIMore examples of trade setups and how I use my custom algos to help identify stronger trade opportunities from other symbols. In this example, near the end of this video, I review the QLD chart (Daily) which provides a very clear example of major trend vs. intermediate trend. It is very important trader learn to see these opportunities from all aspects. Please pay very close attention to the details I'm sharing related to trading concepts and theory. I'm trying to teach all of you to see charts in a different way. See PRICE as the driver of trends, and counter-trends, as Fibonacci Price Theory describes. Basic Rules of Fibonacci Price Theory: 1. Price is ALWAYS seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS. 2. Failure to establish a new high means price will attempt to retest/break recent/new lows. 3. Ultimate HIGH/LOW levels are critical to understanding major trends vs. intermediate trends. 4. If you have trouble identifying a clear trend on a Daily chart, try Weekly or 240 min as an alternative. 5. If you still can't identify trend clearly, wait it out. Price will ALWAYS attempt to make new highs/lows. Sometimes, you have to be patient and wait for consolidation trends to work themselves out. My objective is to show you how I look at charts and identify trade opportunities. Simply put, I just trying to help you see and understand simple TA theories and to help you learn to identify great trade opportunities. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:QLDEducation
by BradMatheny
Higher for LongerUS inflation data in July 2023 provided mixed signals. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving in the right direction, producer price inflation suggest pipeline pressures are picking up. Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.2% for a second month in a row . However, US producer prices picked up in July, owing to increases in certain service categories. This likely buys more time for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliberate on the future path of monetary policy. The flows into bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) have been volatile. Over the past year, investors were starting to embrace duration. Investors were positioned for recession, inflation crash, and Fed cuts - evident from $31.7bn inflows to Treasury bond ETFs on pace for a record year2. However, investors are starting to pull out of the biggest bond ETFs devoted to Treasuries. More than $1.8 billion came out of the $39 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF last week, the most since March 20203. Sentiment toward long-dated Treasuries has soured over the past month amid growing conviction that the Fed will keep interest rates at elevated levels for an extended period. We expect rates to remain higher for longer and are unlikely to see the Fed cut rates until the Q1 of next year amidst a stronger US economy. Don’t celebrate on disinflation just yet Overall, the US economy continues to show extraordinary resilience despite monetary constraints and credit tightening. While inflation has shown encouraging signs of decline, we caution that the level remains high. Strong July retail sales raise the risk of a re-acceleration in inflation. The four biggest categories of the ex-auto’s component saw outsized gains: non-store retailers, restaurants & bars, groceries, and general merchandise. Amidst a tight US labour market, with unemployment at historic lows and wages continuing to rise, the downward pricing momentum in the service sector is likely to be at a slower rate. Commodity prices are also beginning to rebound from the weakness seen in Q2 2023. Energy prices have been rising on the back of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) production cuts. If commodity prices extend their recent momentum, it could pose upside risks to inflation. Fed Officials remain divided Messaging on a somewhat mixed inflation outlook from the Fed Officials remains a mixed bag. One faction remains of the view that rates hikes over the past year and a half has done its job while another group contends that pausing too soon could risk inflation re-accelerating. Fed governor’s Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller remain in the hawkish camp, hinting at more rate increases being needed to get inflation on a path down to the 2% target. Futures markets are assigning about a 11% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike when the Fed next meets on 19 and 20 September4. Additionally, rate cuts have now been completely taken off the table until perhaps later in the Q1 2024. The latest Fed minutes reveal commentary from officials, including the hawks, such as Neel Kashkari, suggest a willingness to pause again in September, but to leave the door open for further hikes at the upcoming meetings5. Opportunity for a yield seeking investor It’s been an impressive turnaround since the pandemic when negative real yields became the norm. TINA- ‘There Is No Alternative’ to equities, is over now that evidence of the shift to a 5% world appears stronger than ever. Today investors have the opportunity to lock in one of the highest yields in decades, with US two-year yields paying close to 5% exceeding the yields at longer maturities without the volatility witnessed in the 10-year sector. A resilient US economy is likely to keep interest rates and bond yields higher for longer. Sources 1 Bureau of Labour Statistics as of 10 July 2023 2 BofA ETF Research, Bloomberg as of 9 August 2022 - 9 August 2023 3 Bloomberg as of 14 August 2023 4 Bloomberg as of 17 August 2023 5 federalreserve.gov as of 16 August 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by aneekaguptaWTE
Conspiracy or something moreI wanted to post this post to get comments and thoughts of others here. Have you ever seen the film "In Time" ?? Imagine you switch out the countdown timer for Bitcoin, after all it won't be long and everyone can have them embedded under the skin. If you haven't seen the film, here's a CHATGPT explanation summary. OK so what does this have to do with trading or Bitcoin? Blackrock and the ETF's is a big play for Bitcoin, but maybe not in the way majority of retail seem to think it is. When you really stop to think - let me know your thoughts. Also latest Tradingview stream earlier. www.tradingview.com Have a good one guys! Well, as a long time cyber security investor (patents in the space also) I find it hard to believe the powers that be, can't seem to figure out one who created it and two how to regulate it and other crypto. It's a bit odd given it's an immutable ledger tech. So What I wanted to see, is what other people think - both good and bad, pros or cons, ups and downs?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
QQQ - Is It Rally Time? Or Are You Too Early?I have an open call on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures that theorizes that the markets may have topped in terms of the perpetual bull run, but that we may also get a rip back towards/at new highs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? The process has been quite slow to play out so far, but the most dangerous thing for bulls with NQ is that 15,000 has not yet been broken. And yet we are rallying. Many people have been pining for new all time highs, and yet every equity has slowed down or been significantly bearish in the last two weeks. It's worth noting key macro points: 1. Fed rates are looking at tasting 6% by the end of the year 2. Jerome Powell says cuts aren't even considered until inflation becomes half of what it is 3. Dude said it will probably take years for this 4. Bond price goes down as yield goes up 5. Money leaves equities to seek yield in this environment 6. Divergences from the above are short signals, not buy for all time high signals And then there is the ever-accelerating collapse of the economy in Mainland China under the Communist Party. Things for the CCP, and for its leader Xi Jinping, are getting worse by the day. On top of economic problems the Party is facing are a litany of social problems, and the recent bout of exceptional and unprecedented flooding ravaging the country. The losses from the pandemic, from the economic calamity, and the natural disasters have weakened the Party significantly. A weak CCP can never invade Taiwan, and international spy agencies will all know this, and so whenever you're hearing "Taiwan War" you should immediately be suspect. What if the idea is to take control of Mainland China via Taiwan as the CCP falls, instead? What will happen to the international markets that day? Will they go up, or will they crash? So, here's a look at QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF that you can trade 0-Day options on. From the looks of today's price action it would seem as if the bottom was in. And it may very well be. This is a really key point. Friday may really well have been the bottom and we may be looking at a reversal. But there's some key points to consider for bulls. One is that in the Nasdaq call, I point out that NQ raided its January of 2022 failure pivot before the correction. QQQ has not done that yet, and this leads us to believe that $390 is a very likely target in the immediate future. Remember that upside should happen fast, since JP Morgan is bigly long SPX 4,200 puts that expire on September 29, and has been underwater since the quarter rolled over at the end of July. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' However, it's also very strange if we're going to see a bounce as massive as $390, that the end of July failure swing didn't result in at least one downside stop being taken out. Note that today, Monday, was a day with no news drivers, while there is retail sales and Empire Manufacturing Index Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and no news driver on Friday, which is also monthly options expiry. The critical Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting is also August 23 and 24, next week. Last year, Jackson Hole is what started a major correction that lasted until October. So what to expect? Instead of a reversal in fortune being so easy, I would imagine we see a raid of QQQ $360/Nasdaq 14,900 this week before we bounce. After that, it will be long only until QQQ $385, is my trade thesis. But keep in mind $390 does not have to be taken. $385 is a potential area of reversal and $391 is an area that only has to print one contract before there's a correction. So, thanks for reading. The TL;DR is this Buy a raid under $360-355. Probably just under $360. Long only until $385. Get "Big Short" over $390 or on a reversal pattern between $385 and $388. Good luck.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by LordWrymouth
1
HYXU: Resistance Break & RestestTechnical Analysis: HYXU (iShares International High Yield Bond ETF) has been slowly grinding upward since it's October '22 lows. After almost 17 months beneath the Bull Market Support Band (20w SMA, 21w EMA), it crossed over the the upside in November of last year and has shown significant gains in the last 10 months. The assets last big push came at the significant resistance level at $47.50, which it finally flipped after 3 failed attempts. Having just completed a successful retest of the level as support, I anticipate a clean move up to $49, then $51.25, based on prior S/R levels. Fundamental Analysis: As we've all had our eyes on the Fed for the last year and a half, I'm sure most of you know that interest rates are at their highest levels in roughly 22 years. By doing this, the Fed has pulled a large portion of liquidity out of the bond market with enticing, low-risk Treasury yields. However, as we approach their terminal rate of ~550 BPs, and as the high cost of money starts to impede businesses' ability to invest and grow, I anticipate a rotation out of stocks and into fixed income investments. The most readily accessible of which, for retail investors, are corporate bond ETFs such as HYXU. With a yield of ~6.5%, it remains more than competitive with even the highest paying treasury, and offers investors a liquid alternative to locking up their funds for months or years. Feel free to post your questions, comments, concerns, qualms, quandaries, contributions, or conversation below! **Disclaimer** This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. Individual circumstances and current events are critical to sound investment planning; anyone wishing to act on this article should consult with his or her advisor.
CBOE:HYXULong
by NotSoDegen
DIA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Achieved target at 351 after breaking Rectangle formation. 🔹Supports 342 in NEGATIVE reaction. 🔹RSI curve shows rising trend, supporting positive trend. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:DIALong
by wavepoint99
IWM - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakout resistance 179 in double bottom formation. 🔹Approaches resistance at 198 potential NEGATIVE reaction; upward break POSITIVE. 🔹Technically NEUTRAL for medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:IWM
by wavepoint99
SPY - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM] 🔹POSITIVE signals rectangle formation with resistance breakout at 436 , potential next resistance at 477 and support at 430. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:SPYLong
by wavepoint99
VOO - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Strong rising trend channel in the medium long term. 🔹POSITIVE signal breakout 401 resistance in Rectangle Formation. 🔹Between support 395 and resistance 424, 439. 🔹RSI rises to 70 due to recent price rise. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:VOOLong
by wavepoint99
SPXL - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹POSITIVE signal from the rectangle formation by a break up through the resistance at 86.23 and next resistance 113. 🔹Between support at 75 and resistance at 95. 🔹Technically positive for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:SPXLLong
by wavepoint99
SOXL - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹Breakout the rising trend up in the medium long term. 🔹Achieves target at 25.20 after breaking rectangle formation. 🔹Support at 22 and resistance at 46. 🔹Technically positive for medium-term long-term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:SOXLLong
by wavepoint99
3
QQQ Correcting in Wave 4 and Should Find BuyersRally in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) from 3.13.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves Elliott Wave impulse. Up from 3.13.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 322.16 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 309.8. The Index then extends higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 323.63 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 315.2. Rally in wave (((iii)) ended at 357.5 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 347.38 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. Index then rallies higher in wave ((v)). Up from wave ((iv)), wave (i) ended at 353.62 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 351.13. The Index extends higher in wave (iii) towards 366.19 with internal subdivision in 5 waves. Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 357.66 and wave ii ended at 353.03. Wave iii ended at 364.6, wave iv ended at 360.03, and wave v higher ended at 366.19. This completed wave (iii) in higher degree. Pullback in wave (iv) ended at 360.42. Index then rallies higher in wave (v). Up from wave (iv), wave i ended at 366.88 and dips in wave ii ended at 362.85. Wave iii ended at 371.77, dips in wave iv ended at 369.14, and final wave v ended at 372.85 which completed wave (v) of ((v)) of 3. Expect the Index to pullback in wave 4 to correct cycle from 4.25.2023 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Potential target for wave 4 is 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave 3 which comes at 348.8 – 358.01 area. From this area, the Index can then extend higher again.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) Resumes Higher in Elliott Wave ImpulseCycle from 3.13.2023 low in QQQ ended in wave ((i)) at 322.16 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. The ETF then corrected in wave ((ii)) which has also ended at 309.78. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave a ended at 312.82 and rally in wave b ended at 319.85. ETF extended lower in wave c towards 312.30 which ended wave (w) in higher degree. Rally in wave (x) ended at 321.46 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Up from wave (w), wave a ended at 320.36 and wave b dips ended at 315.61. Wave c higher ended at 321.46 which completed wave (x). Down from wave (x), wave a ended at 314.10, wave b ended at 317.74, and wave c lower ended at 309.78 which completed wave (y) of ((ii)) in higher degree. QQQ has since resumed higher and broken above wave ((i)) suggesting the next leg higher has started. Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 314.37 and pullback in wave ii ended at 310.22. The ETF extended higher in wave iii towards 322.80. Expect wave iv pullback to end and the ETF extends higher again in wave v to complete wave (i). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 4.26.2023 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
BOIL: Boiling up and down 🥘Still a bit tentatively but visibly, ProShares Bloomberg Natural Gas (aka BOIL) is starting to boil up, quite in accordance with our expectations. As the first part of a three-part counter movement, the ETF should climb further upwards to finish wave a in magenta, before wave b in magenta should return it to its current level. From there, BOIL should rise into the yellow zone between $7.11 and $19.05 to complete wave c in magenta as well as wave (4) in yellow, whose high should then initiate the overarching downwards trend’s final step: wave (II) in white.
AMEX:BOIL
by MarketIntel
8