Nifty high probability bounceWe gapped lower on S&P ES1! action, but we'll probably retest the upper channel bounds unless ES1! breaks lower.
Short the rallies.
Good luck and hedge your bets!
Etfs
fiveg stocks set to turn around once again (FIVG)five g stocks benefit from the creation of fiveg lines. the sale of fiveg capable phones shouldnt drop, so id imagine additional 5g lines are going to be opened. this inflation and rate hike sentiment will get priced in, and we should see a bounce from technical levels.
cybersec stocks set to confirm eventual reversal (CIBR)cyber security stocks are like an insurance premium on data centers. the more sensitive the data, the more is paid in general securing it. this etf will do really well when tech is booming. tech should return soon, so cybersec sgould return soon. rsi is about to meet signal for the first time in more than a week. anchored vwap is flattening above price. qqe is long.
overbought vix (UVXY)i wouldnt want to be holding this thing long right now. were at 84 rsi hourly and a pullback from these levels seems like its in the works.
mid to high 15s is the target. even if we gap up and blast to the upside, i dont think were really in hot water unless spx breaks to new lows, and it doesnt seem like thats going to happen.
fat gap up in financials. what now? (XLF)either were aiming for closure of the gap, or continuation. since the gap is quite large i imagine we continue the bounce as over 40.50 is likely from the size of retracement.
self driving shifting back into autopilot (IDRV)the turn around in the nasdaq and big tech as well as related sectors and their respective etfs should also hit self driving. we should find ourselves breaking the downtrend soon.
seems a lot like volatility has returned as the norm (SPXL)theres a chance that getting back to all time highs may take a lonh time, and when we get there we may be heading into another drop. if volatility has returned as the new norm there is a lot of evidence to suggest that we wont see a stronger market than 2021 until at least 2023. should we make a second break to the downside whether it is sooner or later a touch of vwma monthly is not unthinkable.
vix churning lower, should spring back then decline (UVXY)this is a rapid consecutive forecast going into the end of the week
i dont foresee vix ending above week highs, but there could be bounce if we dont immediately continue lower on the daily
the forecast cluster represents output from the ghost feed
this is based on qqe, rsi, vwma
14.74, 14.24, 13.81 are key levels
oil could resume the boom (GUSH)wti is still in a weekly uptrend, and that could mean bulll
ish business for GUSH.
i think every time we hit a bottom in monthly oil futures we experience a period of upside with extreme volatility until that pattern of lower weekly highs during reversal breaks on the daily.
we are just near treating VWMA as support.
energy is another sector looking for a higher low (XLE)energy bullishness is another sector rotation play that makes me think were in a better place than some seem to believe. i think we will experience additional bolatility for the time being, but so will the markets at large. we should keep a decent uptrend, unless the pullback proves more retracement than risk tolerance for outflows can support.
the long and short of it is thag bulls have given themselves room to work with, even if we go sideways for a while.
nasdaq bear making moves under week highs (SQQQ)generally this etf is going one direction: down, but the weight may be lifted off its shoulders briefly as calls expiring next week are eliminated. if we cant break to new intraday highs i would imagine sqqq has one last trip above 40 only to get sucked back to vwma.
tightening range small caps broke bull (IWM)the tightening range broke to the upside. if we can treat the area as support we could continue higher into upper 202s
consecutive forecast for weeks ahead (TQQQ)i think we will see a lower high, followed by a lower low, but we will stay over the .382, and then continue higher
every period of volatility that dried up quickly or was extenuating in nature was v shaped, and every period that was more exaggerated or corrective in nature was cypher shaped.
we could bull cypher with a touch of support, but if we break it things will get much more serious quite quickly. if we break the 0 of extension the picture will clear up greatly for nasdaq bulls.
sundays session should be bullish continuation, and we should open higher monday and then begin the flush to new lows middle of the week of the 6th, unless we immediately continue higher over 59
typically these indications are a death sentence for vix (UVXY)when we cross this vwma, and the level of .618 retracement doesnt hold uvxy drops really big really fast. algos could flip bear at any moment, but there is bound to be at least one bounce worth noting between here and $12
TLT Seemingly trading higher.TLT ETF seems to be in a good place to trade higher.
Fundamentals back the technicals which is a really sweet spot for this particular ETF with the 20yr TB's.
Expect a rise out of it over the coming weeks back to the previous highs and beyond but only look to "hodl" should price provide us with a bull breakout of the AP which is the previous weekly highs.
If price rejects the highs then we suggest staying clear until the breakout takes place on the proviso you would have already removed any potential risk exposure previously accumalated.
financials sector enjoying a lead on indices (XLF)XLF is one of the instruments whose sectore had a larger terminal upthrust than others, and is enjoying a more sizeable bounce than others after the current peak in volatility.
big names like V, PYPL and BAC are putting up enoughbof a struggle to say that they have tolerance to attract inflow from key players (sm, mm, tutes, pros).
it will be interesting to see if we can confirm a higher low before tech returns to help carry the market, making way for a larger comeback that could enjoy a solid outperformance on indices; at least for the time being.
healthcare is outperforming the broader market (XLV)when an overweight sector corrects with the market volatility is higher in general, but thats why it bounces so much more quickly and outperforms other sectors in the same trend.
sector rotation will have a play in healthcare if we find a higher low, and bulls have given themselves room to complete that reversal.
we should make a higher low somewhere, even if its closer to the bottom than i anticipate, and continue to rally faster than other parts of the market as stocks benefitting from inflow seeking value accumulates.
utilities showing RHS (UTSL)reverse head and shoulders may prove defensive sector stocks may be putting in a bottom. these may do well over the weekend as pros, sm, mm, tutues, and some retail may look to these to provide value when rotation is taking money out of growth.
target 33.33 and 33.97
stop loss 32.89 as this would mean a probable touch of bottom anchored vwap band after a break of the mean.
under aavwap and breaking tightening range bearishly (UVXY)just as spx is in a buy sided tightening range top, vix is in a sell sided tightening range bear.
referto the below chart for that pattern on the 1 minute
if UVXY cant break this range bull then broader markets remain a buy as long as vix puts keep piling in
if we make a lower high and continue down this is a solid confirmation of bear vix
nasdaq futures at resistance, could beat it (TQQQ)this is simple. were at the major resistance in nasdaq furures. if we stay over the .382 of fib trend extend we will probably bull flag, and this could mean we see the 0 of that pattern quite soon (around $55.94)
stop loss around 52.89 as this would mean we need a retest of major support.
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failing double top or continuation (UVXY)if we fail the double top, and break 18.34 confirming a downtrend with a lower high, or immediately continue bear vix, im fine with selling volatility here.
if we immediately continue over 19.17, or we set a higher low over the .382 of the bounce and break the high i would stay long vix for the time being if multiple sectors are continuing to make new lows simultaneously.
vix looks like such a tempting bull trend on many larger timeframes. the weekly is shaping up to be a great reversal from lows, but indices also look equally extended though to the downside.
vix threatening to reverse (UVXY)we are at a critical level in UVXY where oscillators like rsi are making a same low while the price has decreased somewhat.
