semiconductors slipping above marketrainbow, slope and range adaptive averages show we are coming off top of range and headed for a retest of slow moving average. this lays out the targets, and im hoping to stay on top of that region.
Etfs3x
rising wedge semiconductor longshort semiconductors are on the verge of breaking down, and basically if we stay over 12.20 soxl im aiming for daily gap close, or near 12.86 . if we break this ascending tightening range to the downside and more or less double top 4hr resisting from top of envelope, around 12.30s or lower, im looking toward 15 minutes demand zone in low 11s maybe 11.30. short squeeze in semiconductors, or failed bull breakout. even if longs win, im selling rallies on the daily by buying soxs on dips to weekly lows, or new weekly lows (keeping in mind the s&p can still resist from 4000 or slightly higher/nvda can sell off $160, 162.5, 165).
did we just flip bullish in the s&p500?we have retraced .618 from the initial drop in a counter bear trend pullback that has made lots of new longs, but a lot of signals remain sell. if we hold the .5 or continue immediately im long, and if we resist from the .618 and move lower im short. we could resist or support from lower horizontals, and im long/short on bounces from/resisting or breaks/trend confirmations of those levels. the highest im looking is just below the highs of this bounce (keeping in mind its counter to the longer term trend), and the lowest im looking is just above the lows of this pullback in the potential reversal. im not switching to heavy bear unless we start making new daily lows in this pullback, (around the $60 level here) then aiming for new 52 week lows, and im not calling this a reversal until we breakout and confirm a daily uptrend (in the $70 region). ive drawn how the hourly pattern could start its way here or there. my bias is short, but my strategy overall is more neutral at this juncture.
it looks like semiconductors are busti imagine this down move in semiconductors is going to push mich lower, and soxs is a long at these levels into the upper 70s. the signal moving average is green on this inverse.
SOXL / SMH - CREATING A BULLISH REVERSALBACKGROUND:
SOXL (3x ETF) created a great reversal pattern back in JUNE - JULY 2022. It's tempting to ignore it because it ultimately failed on 8/26/22. Nonetheless, it was a great technical entry point when the price broke above $17.
CURRENT PRICE ACTION:
The reason I'm pointing out what happened in JUNE - JULY is because SOXL ETF is forming another BULLISH reversal (early stage) having just passed above last Friday's (9/30) high and entering back into the $9.50 - $10.50 range. The two previous reversals (8/26, 9/13) had failed. Yet the job of a trader is to not HOPE or PREDICT, but rather TRADE the signals and MANAGE RISK ACCORDINGLY .
GAMEPLAN:
I'm watching if the price closes above $10.35 (approx.) within the next few days. I'm anticipating some price action around this level. Any close above $10.35 can follow with some pullback. In fact this is a GREAT entry point for the bears if we were to follow trend alone. However, the reversal that happened from $9.50 and the bounce that's happening on the NASDAQ (potential double bottom) can signal a potential reversal in the market (short-term).
There are two potential bullish reversal scenarios:
1. Straight up(rare)
2. Chop sideways and build a larger reversal base (as happened in JUNE - JULY)
LOOK-OUT FOR:
What comes out of the FED emergency meeting. As mentioned in my previous post on the status of the DOW JONES - I think the analysts at the FED see the same. The FED will either blink and change its' stance or the market is taking another big leg down...
Be safe all and thank you for reading.
i like semiconductors correcting from oversoldsome meaningful bounce is taking place in big tech at least intraday, andsemiconductors as a lead bear are taking part. SOXL is trapped under yeasterdaysgap up, and todays gap up. ive marked outlong short pivot and drawn a bull and vear scenario. there is no bias, but i am long semiconductors when price is so low, at least intraday.
we are plotting a larger volume of a smaller movesideways trading is more than likely the norm until further notice daily, and ive marked out the rangebound timezone cycle as well as kept the swing target low and pivot.
its pretty obvious the fed seems determined to tank this markettechnology is not playing the feds game, and they are rubbing elbows with china especially where semiconductors are concerned. the dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and big corporations dont like a populace with buying power. the job of the reserve banks is to assist borrowers while preserving the lenders capacity, and with this particular administration volatility seems to be the most profitable route. this means one thing. the bear market rally everyone feared is here. im predicting a dead cat bounce followed by continued downside.
rangebound trading cant last bear flag or breakoutprice action daily nasdaq is ranging around the lows with the bounce not escaping vertical gravity, and the candlestick pattern forming either a bear flag or a bullish reversal. if we cross above pivot im looking at upper horizontals as resistance, and if we cross below it im looking at lower horizontals as support.
short at key resistance levelsthis ramge will continue to tighten, and we will likely get a bear break. above pivot target upper horizontals below pivot aim for lower horizontals. semiconductors have been a major focal point of this bear market, and they will be a big recovery story when we exit it.
looks like gap down and bounce could go both wayswere off the lows for the session in the nasdaq, nq1!, and ndx, and creating a slightly higher low than yesterday. we have retested sss moving average, and nearly crossed signal to the upside. if we fall beneath pivot i would look toward sss supply area, and lower horizontals. if we stay above pivot and TRAMA i would look for upper horizontals.
major outflow in energy could start soonan exodus in energy that has been expected as the price of oil could drop significantly may express itself as a short squeeze in DRIP. if we find a weekly higher low i would imagine holding the pivot price and aiming for upper horizontals is logical. if we fall beneath that pivot as resist areas above where a higher low could be set (the 62% retracement area) i would aim for lower horizontals and remain short this inverse.
one minor hickup for broader marketssemiconductors have been a lead bear in this downturn since december, and a lead bull on the monthly bounce from the lows since july. if we roll over here setting a lower high on this etf around the first upper horizontal i would look for broader markets to consolidate on the daily. if we treat pivot as support i would target the upper horizontal and look for continuation in broader markets. most likely scenario is a gap down followed by a rally to close with price action after to be determined.
semiconductors could be in for a huge bull moveif we stay above pivot, there is nothing stopping the top of the sss supply zone from being reached, and qqe rsi signaling bull with a green sss on the weekly. if we pivot higher i would aim for upper horizontals, if we fin ourselves making a bear cross at this key resistance i would aim for lower horizontals if sss stays red.
a couple scenarios for critical resistancethere are a couple scenarios for the critical resistance weve just about come up to on the l nasdaq. i think were above pivot, and where we start out friday will define next weeks activity. if we hit that resistance sss moving average, and we fall beneath the pivot forming bearish divergence daily rsi i think were headed for daily consolidation. if we breech that first upper horizontal embedding bolinger bands and treating the crucial area as support i think were in for continuation until rsi comes out of overbought.
looking for signs of temporary bull exhaustionthe rally has been very strong for a week, and im looking toward the resistances carved out over the last few days to find a bear entry scouting hourly rsilevels and sss signal to turn red qqe making a short entry
some continuation followed by consolidative move in semissemiconductors are on an upward trajectory,and a sell the news event has marked new highs in 3x leveraged semiconductor bull etf SOXL. as long as we remain in this uptrend the market will have no trouble with a third drive to the upside, but during which i would be looking for signs of exhaustion, as some kind of daily topwick could form around rhe $20 area. if we get movement above this supply zone the chart will look more bullish, but closing the gap and pivoting to an hourly equillibrium in an overbought area rsi. that being said a higher supply could take a day or two so as long as sundays numbers are positive or negligible loss nq1! semiconductors should find a local extreme to the highs early or mid next week and consolidate. upper horizontals are stiff resistance, and lower horizontals are areas to be explored for short candidacy.
nasdaq consolidating above pivotweve hit overbought on the hourly, and nasdaq has consolidated above a pivot point marked out by the lower end of that early june range from the last rally. if we break down below that pivot i would look to bounce on one of the lower horizontals as support, and if we stay above that pivot i would target those upper horizontals until were overbought on the daily.
nasdaq on the verge of breaking outthe nasdaq 100 is showing that it can reach for the highs, and is on the verge of breaking out above major resistance to levels not seen since early june. continuation seems likely, and i have critical levels of support and resistance marked out as horizontal lines where it may pause, or bounce. sss is green and qqe is long. if we get over one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal above, and if we break below one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal below.
looks like the bounce may be oversss signal has gone back to red kn the hourly, and if we loose mid 28s were probably headed for mid 26s. if we regain the uptrend holding mid 28s and closing over low 29s id imagine we will revisit those premarket highs hitting 30 soon.
its time to talk about an intermediate or longer term bottomthis ideais simple. if we hold $20, we will break above $56.89 closing the gap left over from april 4th. what could be better? the doomsayers and prognosticators are all pointing toward recession, but where do you see the pain? its all in the past, and the worst may be behind us. only time will tell, but if this face ripper of a rally continues, bears will be trapped and tutes, mm, smart money will be long (if they arent already).
volatility coiling up for a spikeSVXY has printed an outside down day and this usually marks the top in inverse vix. that means vix is in for a spike as weve seen begin today. normally indices make headway when vix is at the lows, but vix has been popping with indices failing resistance pointing toward a false breakout in broader markets. if we fly higher in UVXY breaking fridays high id imagine were in for mid 13s, and if we close beneath that first lower horizontal i think were in for mid 12s.
false break or trend changethe reversal pattern is in if we close above the key levels marked out. we have tested this sentiment a few times in the past month, but each time its proven resistive. if that pattern turns green and we close in a bullish pattern breaking out of this wedge to the upside daily id imagine were in for the upper horizontals, and if we stay with sss and qqe in the red treating this area as resistive id imagine it gets shorted back down to the lower horizontals. bulls really want to hold that orange line (high volume area), and bears want to move below it.
