ETH/BTC lower - Price did not manage to set in a new high in a down trend
- Simple maths = lower prices
ETH-D
eth climax inboundif it doesnt drop here expect a wick into the sell zone and down for the month close
Ethereum on the Rise, Poised for a Bullish BreakoutBINANCE:ETHUSDT has been showing strong recovery patterns recently, and the technical indicators align with a potential bullish move in the coming months. On the weekly chart, COINBASE:ETHUSD has reached the bottom of an ascending channel, which historically has acted as a strong support zone. This $2K region is not only a psychological barrier but also a key support level that was previously a resistance. As ETH continues to hold above this zone, a rise toward its all-time high (ATH) becomes increasingly probable.
Recent data suggests that 2024 could witness a broader crypto bull run, driven by Ethereum and other major assets. Analysts are optimistic about increased adoption cycles following 2023’s groundwork. Ethereum could benefit from market-wide positive sentiment as key events like Bitcoin’s upcoming halving and ETF inflows are expected to drive demand for cryptocurrencies.
With the technical alignment and favorable market conditions, ETH is well-positioned to see significant growth, potentially targeting levels near EUROTLX:4K as it continues its rise within the ascending channel. This rally could be bolstered by investor confidence in the broader cryptocurrency market as new financial products and solutions drive further participation.
9/28 Huge trend reversal. Bullish on crypto. Overview:
Both the AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ closed with red candles, yet neither index dropped below the previous day's low. This, coupled with low trading volume, suggests the current price levels may hold for a while. Both indices display bearish divergences on the MACD histogram and lines, signaling potential weakness.
The Federal Reserve reported August’s core PCE at 2.7% y-o-y, aligning with expectations and slightly up from July's 2.6%. Speculation surrounds whether rate cuts are fueling inflation, though typically, it takes months for such measures to impact the economy. Next year’s CPI and PPI readings will be crucial.
ETF funds have been on a buying spree for seven consecutive days, with September 27th seeing record-high volumes—five times the average.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis:
W: BINANCE:BTCUSD remains above the Bollinger Bands’ MA, in line with the yearly bull-run volume point of control. After two months of bearish sentiment, signs of a trend reversal are emerging. Resistance is at $67.5k. Bullish.
D: BTC broke above $64 k on Thursday and has held above this key level. However, RSI is now at 66.57, approaching overbought territory.
4h: RSI is overbought at 73.28, showing a double peak. MACD’s bearish crossover suggests a pullback to support levels at $65.2k or $64.4k. We expect either a pullback or sideways trading, allowing the MA to catch up. Bearish to neutral.
1h: The lower timeframes indicate BTC is undergoing a correction phase. Neutral.
Altcoins Relative to BTC:
No major divergences are observed. Unlike BTC, ETH and SOL have yet to reach their previous August 25th highs. Newer alts like SUI, TAO, and NEAR have surpassed their highs, showing strong performance.
Bullish Scenario:
With BTC holding above GETTEX:64K on the weekly chart, a bullish outlook is more plausible. Global rate cuts may inject liquidity into speculative assets, boosting crypto prices.
Bearish Scenario:
There’s a risk that the current rally is a bull trap, with a potential sharp reversal.
Fear and Greed Index:
The index is at 56.67, nearing the “greedy” zone, indicating growing optimism.
Prediction:
BTC may correct to $64 k before resuming its rally, with the next target being $67k.
Opportunities:
Bearish: BNB is at monthly resistance, with MACD bearish divergence. NEAR, RNDR, TAO, FTM, and UNI have hit weekly resistance levels, suggesting potential trend reversals. FTM and UNI still haven’t completed their corrections, and MACD divergences may appear over the weekend.
Bullish: AR has rebounded from its weekly support level, indicating a strong recovery.
BTC breaks above 65,000On the back of a larger than expected FED rate cut of .50 risk assets breathe a sigh of relief long held in since the rate cut rumors of Q2 2024. The gains were cemented by a cooler than expected PCE of .1% as opposed to the expected .2% this is the FED’s preferred measure of inflation putting some level of ease to risk asset investor that the FED may turn face on the easing of monetary policies. If this continues a fear people have a of 70’s style inflation issue will be put to rest. China also joined the party will an AGGRESSIVE stimulus packages direct to the people and promises to do more if need be. They also encouraged stock buy backs, if you know anything about the investment market in China the options for quality investment are very limited as the Real Estate market was the main choice but since the Evergrande collapse Chinese investor have had little to no choice. This makes a scenario for crypto investment as an alternative to stocks but the CCP obviously like control so we will if that plays out.
How this affect Crypto bros the short of it is when global liquidity goes up so do assets especially when people get cash in hand example 2020-2021 when everyone and their dog was investing. Now while stimulus direct to consumers is like throwing gas on the fire the FED rate cuts are like throwing a log on embers. The rate cuts take about a year to affect the general economy but the immediate effect is bank to bank loan rate i.e it’s cheaper to take on debt. Now with the rise of NASDAQ:MSTR strategy with other companies this will make it cheaper for companies to take on debt so companies like Metaplanet and other yet to disclose will find the “BTC Yield” more significant to offset loan cost. And lastly all risk assets benefit from low rate environments.
In sum NFA but I would buy CRYPTOCAP:BTC as always and load up on alts while BTC out perform my mix ideally 75% BTC 15% alts and 10% cash for dippy dips
Ethereum Continues Strong Performance with 4% Weekly GainMarket Update:
Ethereum closed another strong week, with a 4% price increase, driven by buyer momentum pushing prices above $2,600.
The next target for ETH is $2,800, which will act as a key resistance level.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum has steadily shifted bullish since September, allowing ETH to break out of the downtrend that began in March, bringing optimism back to the market.
If sellers return, Ethereum has solid support at the $2,400 level, ensuring stability in the current price range.
#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoMarket #PriceUpdate #BullishMomentum #CryptoRecovery #ETHTargets
Ethereum Price ConsiderationsHey there, Ethereum enthusiasts!
If you like my graphics, send some 💙💛
Gather 'round because we've got something to talk about.
Picture this: a pattern that blending elements of a Double Bottom and an Adam and Eve formation. This kind of pattern often signals a big turnaround.
Now, let's dive into the nitty-gritty. The chart's telling us that Ethereum is probably not going to dip below $1500, and honestly, it's looking quite sturdy around this range . Of course, just to be safe, let’s consider a scenario where Ethereum sees a little dip, but hey, let's keep our fingers crossed that it doesn’t tumble below $800.
But here’s where it gets interesting: the sweet spot is right around $2000.
If Ethereum manages to break through this level, we might just be on the road to reclaiming its all-time high of nearly $4840, a number that still echoes in our minds from the crazy days of 2021.
Now, here’s the exciting part: my optimistic side sees Ethereum soaring to a fantastic $14000, but remember, the crypto loves to surprise us.
Prices could skyrocket beyond our dreams or settle around $8000.
The road ahead is full of twists and turns, but hey, that's what makes this journey so thrilling, right?
ETH/USDT 4HOUR CHART UPDATE !!The blue-shaded area between $2,680 – $2,800 indicates a strong resistance area, which the price has struggled to break. The price is currently testing this area.
The brown-shaded area between $2,165 – $2,250 is a crucial support level. If the price fails to move above the resistance, it could retrace towards this area, as indicated by the arrows on the chart.
The downward-sloping trendline (white) marks the resistance from previous highs, which Ethereum has been respecting. The price recently broke above this trendline, indicating a change in momentum.
The green line appears to be a moving average, possibly 200-period and has acted as resistance and support. Ethereum is trading slightly above this moving average, indicating a potentially bullish bias in the short term.
The downward arrow highlights a potential scenario where Ethereum may face rejection from the blue resistance area and drop back to the brown support area.
Do you want information on potential trade setups or further technical analysis on this chart?
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed.
The difference between buying on the chart and actual buyingHello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
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#ETHUSDT
When ETH looks good to buy, it will rise near the section the finger is pointing to.
That's because if you wait any longer, you will feel like you've missed it.
However, the section we should buy is the section the arrow is pointing to.
The best position among these is when it goes beyond the section the arrow is pointing to after September 17.
The reason is that the DMI and OBV rose near the BW line and HA-Low.
Currently, OBV has risen above the High Line, but since DMI is at 0, I think it would be better to wait until DMI shows an upward trend.
If you couldn't wait and were going to buy, you should have bought it at the time when you should have bought it before.
-
The BW line has been created again near the current price.
Therefore, when it rises above the BW line and shows support, it is the time to buy.
However, since it was created at the highest point (100) of the created BW line, it is recommended to check whether it is supported even if it rises.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that a full-scale upward trend will begin when it rises above 29K.
The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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ETHUSD is going +100% up after this bullish cross.Ethereum / ETHUSD in on its 3rd straight green week and if it stays that way, it will be the first 3 week bullish streak since March 4th.
The long term pattern is a log Channel Up going back all the way to June 13th 2022.
The price bottomed in August and early September on the 1day MA200 and last week we had the first bullish break out as the price crossed above the 1day MA50.
This week we are having the second as the 1week RSI is crossing above its MA, with the previous such crossing (Oct 16th 2023), starting the last aggressive bullish leg.
The third and final bullish signal will be once the price crosses above the 1week MA50.
In our opinion the new long term bullish leg has already started and in early 2025 we can see new ATH, more specifically 5500 at the top of the Channel Up.
That will be a +100% rise from the current levels.
Previous chart:
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SOL vs ETHSo this is an interesting chart, to view SOL vs ETH, or SOLETH
already 8x as fast since the bottom.
Here we see this "ETH Killer" on the move.
Not that it actually will kill ETH, but certainly it will eat a lot of the ETH cake.
Good luck to all
9/25 Altcoins and BTC Await Next MovesOverview:
AMEX:SPY displayed a minor decline yesterday, forming a small red candle while remaining near the upper boundary of its current trading range. This pullback is largely attributed to the underperformance of the oil and gas sector, which saw significant declines. Despite this, there are no clear indications of bearish momentum building up at this stage.
NASDAQ:QQQ closed with a green candle, successfully surpassing the previous high set on August 22nd. This breakout signals bullish momentum and a positive outlook for the tech-heavy index.
BTC TA:
W: Bitcoin is holding above the Bollinger Bands' moving average but remains below the critical weekly resistance level of $64 k. This positioning reflects a neutral to slightly bearish outlook.
D: The daily chart reveals why the weekly candle only has a wick above $64 k. Unfortunately, Bitcoin failed to maintain its support line and is now trading below it. If further correction occurs, the target is around $60.3k, where the highest volume of trading activity has been observed.
4h: Analyzing the recent bull run from September 6th, the Volume Range Volume Profile (VRVP) point of control aligns closely with the current price level, indicating significant trading activity here. A breakout could lead to either a drop to $43k or a surge to $80k. Keep an eye on the bearish MACD line divergence, which, although present, needs confirmation on the 1-hour timeframe.
1h: The previously observed divergence has dissipated, and the market is now range trading, indicating a neutral outlook.
Altcoins Relative to BTC:
Most major altcoins peaked 2-3 days ago and are now waiting for Bitcoin’s next move to decide their direction.
Bull Case:
As long as Bitcoin maintains its support level without breaking down, there's an increased likelihood of a gradual rise. Current market behavior suggests we are in an accumulation phase, which could precede a strong upward movement.
Bear Case:
We might be experiencing the peak of a bull trap. Economic indicators are not favorable, and there is a risk that large holders (whales) may begin selling off their positions.
Fear and Greed Index:
The index has dropped slightly to 48.34 from yesterday's 52.83, indicating a slight shift towards fear in the market.
Prediction and Opportunities:
On weekly and 4-hour charts, there are divergences in major altcoins, presenting potential opportunities. SOL successfully broke through its $144 resistance level, and ETH did the same with its $2,550 support, establishing these as new support levels. AR also confirmed its $21.73 support level. These setups could offer profitable trading opportunities if confirmed by further price action.
Correction Notice:
In yesterday's analysis, we incorrectly stated that BlackRock had been on the sidelines with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. New data reveals the opposite: BlackRock made significant purchases of $98.9 m and $184 m worth of BTC on consecutive days, along with a $59.3 m purchase of ETH. While Fidelity customers showed reduced interest, with some selling BTC, BlackRock’s aggressive buying suggests divergent strategies among major players. This highlights the complexities of using ETF flows as a metric, as there is no clear way to track "smart money" in the crypto space. It’s intriguing to observe the varying purchase patterns between BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity.
ETH USDTEthereum is currently trading around $2,627. The price is approaching a critical resistance zone (Blue) at $2817.43 - $2850.01 . If ETH successfully breaks through this resistance and closes above it on the daily chart, further bullish momentum could be expected. This could push the price towards the next significant resistance zone (Green) at $3441.19 - $3505.50. Traders should keep an eye on ETH’s movement at this key level for potential future pumps.
Everything is on the chart
9/24 Markets on Edge: Is the Bull Run Here to Stay?Overview:
It might seem like the markets have been rallying for the last four trading days, following the recent interest rate cut. The AMEX:SPY formed a bullish spinning top candlestick pattern on Friday and Monday, followed by another green candle on Tuesday. We remain in a bullish trend with no clear signs of reversal. However, it's worth noting that we still haven’t reached a new all-time high and haven't posted a solid green candle engulfing previous ones. The AMEX:SPY hasn’t even surpassed the highest trading price recorded last Thursday. Essentially, we're hovering at the market's peak, deciding whether to kick off a new bull cycle or face a potential downturn.
NASDAQ:QQQ also closed positively, but the candlestick pattern is similar to SPY. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve reported the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks housing price increases in 20 major U.S. cities. While housing is still appreciating, it’s doing so at a slightly slower pace than anticipated. In July, it rose by 5.9% year-over-year, compared to an expected 6% and the previous reading of 6.5%. The primary driver of home prices is borrowing costs, particularly reflected in mortgage rates. Typically, a 1% increase or decrease in mortgage rates correlates with a 10% change in property values. As interest rates decrease, so do mortgage rates, influencing home prices.
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped from 7.22% in May to 6% in mid-September, translating to a 12.2% increase in housing prices. Therefore, the Case-Shiller Index could see a significant rise, especially if the Fed cuts rates twice more by year-end.
The Consumer Confidence Index, distinct from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, also dropped to 98.7 in September, nearing the bottom of its narrow range over the past two years. This is the steepest decline since August 2021, with all five components of the index deteriorating. Consumers’ views on current business conditions and the labor market have turned negative. Additionally, expectations for future labor market conditions, business conditions, and income have all worsened. While this drop is significant, it’s not as severe as during the Dotcom Bubble or the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.
Fidelity and Bitwise are slowly dipping their toes into the BTC ETF market, while Grayscale and BlackRock remain on the sidelines. The ETH ETF remains untouched. It’s possible that the recent surge in buying is driven by retail investors. We might need to reconsider the importance of ETF metrics, as they’ve become just another market participant without any apparent insider knowledge. For instance, BlackRock made its largest BTC ETF purchase between February 27th and March 14th when BTC's price ranged from $51K to $73K. On March 12th, they purchased $849 million worth of BTC at a closing price of $71.4K, leaving them in a loss since then.
Weekly : This week’s BINANCE:BTCUSD candle is above the Bollinger Band moving average, but it’s still intersecting the $64 k weekly level. If this price holds, it could signal a major bullish trend. For now, it’s still leaning bearish.
Daily : Tuesday’s price action pushed us above the weekly $64 k level. The daily candle appears stronger compared to the previous four spinning tops. RSI is approaching overbought territory but hasn’t crossed the 70 mark, and there are no MACD divergences.
4-Hour : The bearish MACD divergence persists, now visible in RSI as well. Three consecutive candles are holding above $64K. Lower timeframes will reveal how many attempts were made to break this level and if previous resistance has turned into support. The price is at the top of the Bollinger Bands.
1-Hour ): On Tuesday, September 24th, at 10 AM, there was a decisive candle indicating an unsuccessful attempt by American bears to break the $62.9K level. The VR VP point of control is precisely at this level, with significant bullish buy orders absorbing the selling pressure. Volume nearly doubled to 1.1 million on Coinbase, compared to an average of 278k. Subsequent candles showed higher volume and a higher low. Once the selling pressure was absorbed, the price began to rise and broke the resistance level. Since the breakout, the price has tested the old resistance level three times but successfully rebounded, closing higher above the Bollinger Band moving average.
This breakout was confirmed by a CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) bullish divergence, available on TradingView. It shows the difference between buying and selling pressure in the market, especially on the 1-hour timeframe. During the 10, 11, and 12 AM candles, a higher low was formed compared to the previous price low, but the CVD indicated a lower low. This suggests that even with immense selling pressure, buy orders were absorbing the sell orders, pushing the price higher.
Alts Relative to BTC:
While major market indices and BTC might appear flat and indecisive, altcoins are experiencing explosive growth. Since the rate cut, the following alts have surged:
TAO: +70% SUI: +50% APT: +37% NEAR: +30% RNDR: +30%
Alts had ample room for growth as many collapsed faster than BTC. In early September, SUI and NEAR reached their "BTC ETF approval" price levels from January 10th, while APT hit its 2023 bottom price. It still has another 9% to go before reaching its BTC ETF price.
Bull Case: BTC holds $64 k, all selling pressure is absorbed, and liquidity floods the market, especially after China joined the rate-cutting spree, reducing their rate from 2.3% to 2.0%.
Bear Case: It could all be one big bull trap, with deeper economic issues globally leaving people with less disposable income to gamble on speculative assets.
Fear and Greed Index: 52.83. Increasing but still in the neutral zone. There's a notable divergence: check the Fear and Greed Index chart on CoinMarketCap. The last two lows were on August 5th and September 6th, yet BTC posted a higher second low, indicating irrational fear in the market. Keep an eye on this divergence for future reference.
If it is supported near 2531.05-2621.99, it is time to buyHello, traders.
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(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
ETH is showing a disappointing performance, falling more than BTC.
However, the current location, that is, near 2531.05-2621.99, is an important support and resistance area, so whether it can receive support and rise is the key.
We need to check whether it can receive support and rise to create a state where M-Signal on the 1D chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart.
Therefore, ETH can be considered as a buy point at the moment.
If it falls, you should check for support near 2159.0.
-
This is because the section that must be supported in order to rise is the 1941.90-2159.0 section.
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Since the BW indicator has touched the highest point (100), the BW line will be created soon.
Therefore, you should check for support at the newly created BW line and consider whether you can trade according to your trading style.
The stop loss point is when it shows resistance near 2531.05.
As I said again, the M-Signal on the 1W chart is currently falling just above.
Therefore, even if it is supported and rises now, it is highly likely to touch the M-Signal area of the 1W chart and fall, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.
-
The next volatility period is around September 30th (September 29th - October 1st).
Therefore, the point of observation is how the M-Signals of the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts are arranged based on this time.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will begin when it rises above 29K.
The section expected to touch in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
ETH - Bullish Control Persists!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 As per our latest analysis, attached on the chart, ETH has rejected the $2,000 - $2,150 support zone and has been trading higher since then.
What's next?
For the bulls to take over long-term and push towards the $4,000 mark, a break above the $3,000 resistance is needed.
Meanwhile, the $2,850 - $3,000 zone would be acting as a resistance.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Sep.17-Sep.23(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, the Federal Reserve kicked off the rate-cutting era with a hawkish 50 basis point cut. Although the CME had previously predicted a high probability of a 50bp rate cut, the fact that only one committee member voted for a 25bp cut while all others opted for 50bp was beyond market expectations. Following the announcement, almost all financial assets, except for the U.S. dollar, showed bullish trends.
After the rate cut, the value of the U.S. dollar will decrease, which will make stablecoins in the crypto industry more sensitive. They will either hold BTC to mitigate the impact of dollar depreciation or opt to hold other financial assets. Therefore, we anticipate that market volatility will significantly increase in the future.
Last week, BTC ETFs experienced net inflows for a period, but as the rate cut event cooled down, traditional capital inflows gradually declined. The ETH ETFs performed even more sluggishly, showing significant net outflows as of yesterday. If traditional funds fail to continue flowing into the market, it could lead to capital outflows within the market.
ETH's performance last week was slightly stronger than BTC. However, as the ME indicator reflects, bearish forces are stronger on a larger scale. Similarly, the WTA indicator does not show any significant blue bars. ETH's rise last week seems more like a catch-up rally driven by BTC's increase.
In summary, we believe ETH may remain in a consolidation phase this week, with a higher probability of an upward trend than a downward one. We raise the resistance level to 2,800 and maintain the previous support level at 2,100.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
ETHUSD bullish reversal heading towards decision zoneETHUSD reversed strongly and is heading towards resistance at about 2830.
Opportunities:
1. if long stay long and look to take profit at resistance. If we break through its an oppurtinity to re-long into the next price level, which should settle between 2800 - 3600
2. Look to build a short position in the "Short zone" with a tight stop above 2830
3. If you have no position, wait for the price to fall back into the neutral zone and hedge short/long. look to take profit at support around 2100 and resistance around 2800
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart Update:The 4-hour chart shows a descending trendline that has acted as resistance, with ETH recently bouncing back after testing that line.
Ethereum has reached the $2,625 mark but is showing signs of correction.
A highlighted zone around $2,150 to $2,250 could act as the next support level if a downward correction materializes. This range aligns with a demand zone seen on the chart.
Based on the bearish sentiment and the break from the resistance, the next move could push Ethereum toward the $2,150 area, offering a potential entry point for buyers waiting near support.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed.
Bearish drop?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the overlap support.
Pivot: 2,672.26
1st Support: 2,535.71
1st Resistance: 2,791.13
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ETH: The brave move of Ethereum is on its way.How far will Ethereum extend its uptrend this September, will determine its October performance.
9/23 Crypto Faces Gloomy October.Overview:
The AMEX:SPY closed higher last week, but Thursday’s candlestick pattern resembles a bearish abandoned baby. What’s more concerning is the weekly chart showing a bearish MACD divergence—while the price keeps hitting all-time highs, both the MACD and signal lines are trending lower. Has this divergence played out already, as seen in the first week of August, or is it still ahead of us?
You may have noticed that we only have two more rate cuts left for the year. Why not three, with three months remaining? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets only eight times a year. There’s no meeting in October to give time for economic analysis and to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations. Conveniently (for bears), September and October are typically weak months for markets. Remember, FTX collapsed in November 2022, bottoming out the crypto market in November-December.
The next FOMC rate cut is expected on November 7th, leaving BINANCE:BTCUSD bulls on their own for the next 44 days. However, this cut is not guaranteed. If inflation remains high or increases, the cut could be postponed. Rate cuts are a quantitative easing tool used to support a slowing economy—not one that’s running at full speed. This Friday, the FED will release the PCE index, which could influence their decision. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 55.2% chance of a one-basis-point cut and a 44.8% chance of a two-basis-point cut.
In recent letters, we suggested a price increase in late September. Now might be the time to take some profits and wait to see if we can break resistance and establish a new bull trend, or if this is the peak before a downturn.
Weekly:
BTC closed the week with a strong green candle, slightly above the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) but still below the highs of late August. The trend remains bearish.
Daily:
We’re overdue for a correction back to the BB MA, with targets at $61.4k and $60k. The price is hovering around the major resistance level of GETTEX:64K , which is also a key monthly level. The last three days have formed three consecutive dojis, indicating market indecision after 15 days of bullish momentum. Breaking this resistance without first testing the $61.4k support is unlikely.
4-Hour:
Weekend price action shows BTC reaching its peak between Thursday and Friday night, pulling back by 2.6% before U.S. bulls prevented further losses. Despite pushing higher on Sunday, Asian bears applied pressure again. Bearish divergence between the price peaks and the MACD-signal line suggests a potential downturn.
1-Hour:
At 10:00 a.m. NYC time, BTC posted a big green candle, supported by strong U.S. buying. However, since Monday midnight, the price has been dropping, while the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) line remains green and positive. This indicates that despite strong buying pressure, hidden sell orders are absorbing the demand, suggesting:
Absorption by Sellers: Large sell orders are preventing the price from moving up.
Distribution Phase: Larger market participants may be offloading positions while smaller traders buy, creating an illusion of demand.
Potential Reversal: This could signal a potential reversal if the selling pressure eases.
Altcoins Relative to BTC:
ETH has outperformed BTC, along with NEAR, TAO, APT, AR, RNDR, and AAVE. SUI, BNB, and FTM showed weaker pumps, while SOL appeared the weakest.
Bull Case:
If the Fed’s two-basis-point cut doesn’t lead to higher inflation and jobless claims continue to rise, it could boost speculative assets. Other central banks around the world may follow suit, increasing global M2 money supply.
Bear Case:
Until the next Fed rate cut, there’s little to support BTC’s current price against bearish pressure.
Fear and Greed Index:
Currently at 50.64—neutral sentiment.
Overall, the market remains in a delicate balance, while weekly trend is still bearish.
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