ETH-D
Aug.13-Aug.19(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, the U.S. Department of Labor released CPI data for July, which was slightly better than expected. Afterwards, U.S. stocks started an upward trend that lasted for a week, and gold recently refreshed its ATH, further pricing in interest rate cuts. The performance of crypto market has been weaker than other markets, with BTC and ETH almost at the same price level as a week ago. On Friday, Powell will speak at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. The market has basically acquiesced that interest rates will be cut in September. The point of disagreement is whether to cut interest rates by 25 bp or 50 bp.
Cash-flows to the BTC ETF and ETH ETF have been subdued over the past seven days. This is in contrast to the US stock market. It seems that the enthusiasm of traditional funds for crypto is gradually declining. This also reflects that funds may be flowing to other assets.
Unlike BTC, ETH performed more weakly last week. Still in a downward trend overall. There was barely any rebound from the bulls, with trading volume significantly below past averages. The ME indicator maintains the bearish trend and the yellow wavy area widens further. On the WTA indicator, like BTC, there is no blue column representing whales.
To sum up, we believe that ETH may remain volatile this week, with the downside probability being greater than the upside. We maintain our original resistance level of 2800 and support level of 2400.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
Aug 19 and week's overview.Overview:
The weekend passed without significant CRYPTOCAP:BTC price movement, holding the daily level at $58.2k. On Monday, bulls rallied, managing to push the price up to $58.4k, signaling a potentially bullish week ahead. This renewed buying interest could be attributed to the VANTAGE:SP500 closing with a strong +1% gain, reminding traders of the generally positive performance of stocks in August, though caution is warranted as September and October tend to be more turbulent. CRYPTOCAP:BTC has bounced off the $58.2k level roughly five times in the last eight days. This marks the second correction week after BTC’s 30% crash, with a 23% recovery so far, suggesting a possible rally towards the next weekly level of $63k. Trading within this midrange is risky, as the price could move in either direction. Tight stop-losses (1-1.5%) and modest take-profits (3-3.5%) are advisable.
Global Liquidity: Growing, which is bullish.
Open Interest: Declining, but Monday saw increased capital commitment, indicating short-term bullishness.
Last week ended with a small-bodied red candle, which is neutral to bearish. A similar pattern was seen in late May 2021, where a brief 18% rally was followed by a 30% decline.
Weekly: Range trading with no divergence.
Daily: Monday approached the BB MA, and early Tuesday broke above it, trending upward with a potential 3.7% gain. The current candle is still forming, so it's unclear if this is a genuine breakout or a false move.
4h: No significant changes or divergences.
1h: Increasing volume suggests the current upward trend is strengthening, though the RSI is in overbought territory above 70. If the RSI forms a double top near $63.1, it could be a shorting opportunity.
Alts Relative to BTC: While BTC has broken above the BB MA, altcoins have only cautiously approached it. Retail traders seem to have caught on to Grayscale’s announcement of new trusts for NYSE:SUI and GETTEX:TAO , with GETTEX:TAO up 17% in the last four days, as we anticipated in our August 11th analysis.
Bull Case: BTC continues to rally towards $62-63k, completing the recovery from the recent crash.
Bear Case: Swing traders may turn bearish and start selling off.
Fear and Greed Index: Rising, currently at 46.14 since August 16th.
Prediction: BTC is likely to rally to $63k, with altcoins like NYSE:SUI , AMEX:NEAR , AMEX:APT , NYSE:AR , and GETTEX:TAO potentially gaining 7-10%.
Opportunities:
AMEX:NEAR : Approaching its weekly resistance at $4.38, offering a potential 6.45% gain.
UPCOM:FTM : Has reached its weekly resistance at $0.4.
Also, do you remember DeFi? ASX:MKR and BME:UNI , which are trading at pre-BTC ETF demand levels despite their strong fundamentals. They are actually earning hard cold cash, proving a use case for crypto: In July ASX:MKR earned fees: $19.7m, revenue of $7.54m; Aave fees $29.4m, revenue of $4.78m; and Uni collecting $47.7m in fees with no revenue provided.
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Potential bullish rise?Ethereum (ETH/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 2,550.99
1st Support: 2,334.36
1st Resistance: 2,854.22
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ETHUSDT.1DAnalyzing the ETH/USDT chart on a daily timeframe, we see a volatile and somewhat bearish trend emerging over the past few months. Here's a detailed breakdown of the chart, highlighting key resistance and support levels, along with insights from the MACD and RSI indicators.
Key Observations:
Trend Analysis: Ethereum has displayed a series of lower highs and lower lows since peaking, indicating a bearish trend. The trendline (R1) has consistently acted as a resistance, and the price is currently testing this line, suggesting a critical juncture.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Levels (R2 and R3): R2 at $3,043 and R3 at $4,105.80. These levels represent potential upside barriers in the event of a price reversal.
Support Level (S1): The significant support level is at $2,126.90. This level has historical relevance as a pivot point for price actions.
MACD Indicator: The MACD line is currently below the signal line and both are trending downward below the zero line, which traditionally indicates bearish momentum. However, the histogram suggests that the negative momentum is slowing, possibly pointing to an impending stabilization or reversal.
RSI Indicator: The RSI is around 36, which is nearing the oversold territory. This could indicate that the selling pressure might soon exhaust, offering potential for a bullish reversal if other factors align.
Technical Analysis and Conclusion:
The Ethereum market appears to be at a critical stage. The proximity to the major support at S1 and the nearing oversold conditions suggest that we could see a short-term reversal if the support holds. Investors and traders should watch for any bullish reversal patterns or a break above the trendline R1 as potential signs of a change in momentum.
However, a break below the support at $2,126.90 could lead to further declines, with the potential to test much lower levels, given the absence of immediate visible support below S1 on the chart.
Trading Strategy:
For Bullish Traders: Look for confirmation of a support hold at S1 and a potential bullish reversal pattern or a break above R1. If entering a long position, consider setting stop-loss orders below S1 to manage risks.
For Bearish Traders: Monitor for a sustained break below S1. If this occurs, consider entering short positions with a view to capitalize on further declines. Place stop-loss orders just above the most recent highs to limit potential losses.
As always, it's crucial to consider external factors such as market news, overall crypto market trends, and economic indicators that could influence Ethereum's price movements. Stay updated and adjust strategies accordingly.
The REAL Bull-Market Has Yet To Come: Here's Proof!In this analysis I want to talk about the M2 Global Money Supply indicator. This indicator basically shows how much money there is in circulation and how much is being printed.
The indicator itself is not that usefull since it's just going up (more money is printed over time). However, the rate at which money is printed is more interesting, hence I slapped an RSI indicator on top of it.
As seen on the chart, the RSI of the Global M2 shows that Bitcoin tops around the time that the RSI tops. It's not accurate enough for day-trading, but at least useful for to detect long-term moves.
The RSI of the Global M2 has always topped around the 70-75 points. It's currently sitting at 60.3, so there's quite some room left to grow (last time it took almost a year to go from 60 >75).
Furthermore, we can see that the "real" bull-market or Hype Phase starts once the RSI is above 65 and continues to climb.
In short, the "real" bull-market has not started yet and BTC has much more room to grow over the next 1-2 years.
Happy to hear your thoughts on this analysis.
Price Correction from the Resistance ZoneEthereum is currently within the $2600 to $2700 resistance range. This range is recognized as a significant resistance that might halt the current upward trend and initiate a downward movement.
Potential Scenarios:
Price Correction from the Resistance Zone:
If Ethereum fails to break through the $2600 to $2700 resistance range, a price correction towards the $2500 and $2400 support levels is likely. These levels could act as key points for a potential price reversal and continuation of the downward trend.
Breaking Resistance and Continuing the Uptrend:
If Ethereum can break through the $2700 resistance and stabilize above it, this move could indicate the continuation of the uptrend, with the price moving towards higher levels.
Ethereum ETH price completed its correction, and next growth?Here is a global wave analysis of the OKX:ETHUSDT price
After the launch of #ETHETF, the price correction of CRYPTOCAP:ETH has started
After launch, #BTCETF was similar to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price. Well, this is logical, because large funds need a trading volume to purchase a large position and preferably as cheaply as possible.
The probable correction wave (4) was 0.5 of the previous wave (3)
Now the main task is to keep the OKX:ETHUSDT price in the range of $2250-2550
Well, and from this zone can start the growth wave (5) with the goal of at least $5950-6000 per CRYPTOCAP:ETH
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ETH/USDT Weekly Chart Update !!ETH/USDT is currently testing key resistance levels within the descending channel. A breakout above $3,050 could lead to a retest of higher resistance areas around $3,850. The 100MA near $2,150 has provided strong support, and the price needs to be above this level to maintain the bullish momentum. Traders should keep an eye on volume confirmation and price action near these crucial levels.
This update provides a concise analysis of the ETH/USDT weekly chart, focusing on key support and resistance levels, moving averages, chart patterns, and volume considerations.
Remember: This is not financial advice. Stay tuned to us for further updates and analysis. Thank you!
ETHUSDT
Current Position (August 18, 2024, 12:00): The market is at a resistance level around 2,665.00. This area could signal either a pullback or a breakout, depending on market sentiment and external factors.
Next Key Times:
August 20, 2024, 06:00: This time point may represent a moment of potential reversal or continuation of the current trend.
August 23, 2024, 01:00: This could be a critical period, where a major movement in either direction may occur.
August 24, 2024, 16:00: A point to watch for further developments.
August 25, 2024, 11:00: This point could indicate a stabilization or another shift in the market's direction.
Interpretation:
Upward Potential: If ETH/USDT breaks the current resistance and continues upward, it could reach the 2,690.00 mark or higher. This would likely align with positive developments or market optimism.
Downward Risk: Failure to break above resistance may lead to a test of the lower support around 2,600.00 or lower, with potential significant drops around the key timeframes identified.
BRIEFING Week #33: Market are bumpy, be cautiousHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Aug 17Overview:
The cryptocurrency market is currently in a cautious phase. Weekends typically see minimal price swings, though Sunday evenings can bring volatility. Declining open interest suggests a lack of confidence, with traders closing positions and exiting the market. The August 5th liquidations also pushed remaining traders to leave, further reducing market participation. This environment points to continued consolidation, with potential for volatility as the weekend ends.
Looking back at BTC’s weekend price action, similar patterns emerge: a crash, a small rebound, approaching the Bollinger Bands moving average (BB MA), and then continued decline. Bearish scenarios include January 15-16, 2022; June 5-6, 2022; and more recently, June 29-30, 2024. A bullish argument is found in May 11-12, 2024, when Saturday and Sunday marked the end of the first bull wave and the start of the second in 2024. However, that was 33 days after the downturn began, while we are currently at day 20.
This past week may have been the calm before the storm.
Alts Relative to BTC: No divergences.
Bull Case: Everyone who wanted to sell has likely sold. Now we wait for an event to trigger a buying spree that could draw a 4th wave on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart.
Bear Case: No bulls come to the rescue, and the market drops further.
Fear and Greed Index: 44.9, rising over the last two days, but given the weekend, it may not carry much weight.
W: Range trading, no divergences.
D: Reached BB MA and is touching it at $59.9k.
4h: Approached $60.2k for the second time but couldn’t break that daily level. We’re also at the top of the Bollinger Bands range, which is relevant for those trading sideways movements. No divergence.
1h: No divergences, but there’s a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Prediction: Most likely move down significantly, or range trade, then decline.
Opportunities:
CRYPTOCAP:SOL : Attempting to break the weekly resistance level.
NYSE:SUI : Bounced from support and is now trending upward.
NYSE:AR and CRYPTOCAP_OLD:RNDR : Sitting on the weekly level; their next move will be quick, so choose your side.
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(ETH) ethereum "direction"I think Ethereum is headed in the direction of the black neutral zone area as seen in the auto fib retracement indicator. The 50 day and 100 day moving average lines show Ethereum headed towards the neutral zone. Due to the neutral zone being above the price, I think the price of Ethereum is going to gain in price.
Important section: 2531.05 ~ 0.382 (2647.88)Hello, traders.
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The key is whether the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart can rise above and maintain the price.
To do so, we need to check whether it can rise along the rising trend line during the volatility period starting around the week of August 19.
If not, and it falls below 2531.05, there is a possibility that it will fall again to around 2159.0, so we need to think about a countermeasure for this.
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Currently, the StochRSI indicator has entered the oversold zone and is maintaining the status of StochRSI < StochRSI EMA.
Therefore, it is important to see if it can be supported around the 2531.05 ~ 0.382 (2647.88) section.
Therefore, it is recommended to proceed with a purchase when the StochRSI indicator is out of the oversold section and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
However, since the current chart is a 1W chart, it is possible that it has shown a lot of increase when the above situation occurs.
Therefore, you should check whether there is support in the section (2531.05 ~ 0.382 (2647.88)) and see if you can proceed with a split purchase.
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If you compare the current flow with the past flow, it seems to be showing a movement corresponding to around May 9, 2022.
However, the current situation is a bit different from that time.
When it was around May 9, 2022, there was a decline in USDT, but currently, USDT is showing an increase.
Therefore, I think it is showing a different flow than before in that it is time to find a time to buy even if it falls further than the current price, not a time to find a time to cut losses.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K.
The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Aug 16Overview: The TradFi week is over, and the VANTAGE:SP500 is now just 1.86% away from its all-time high, nearly recovering from the impact of Japan's rate increase. However, CRYPTOCAP:BTC hasn't experienced the same positive price action. It seems big money is feeling more confident in U.S. blue chips than in speculative assets like Bitcoin. So, who will push BTC to $100k? Maybe not this time. Last week, we saw a crash followed by a recovery, but this week the market remained stagnant. It seems to have found a range between $55.9k and $63.1k and might bounce within this range a few more times.
Alts Relative to BTC: On August 16th, CRYPTOCAP:BTC grew by 1.70%, but CRYPTOCAP:ETH only by 0.83%, while CRYPTOCAP:SOL dropped by 2.45%, AMEX:NEAR by 1.32%, AMEX:APT by 5.10%, and UPCOM:FTM by 4.59%. As of now, CRYPTOCAP:BTC has continued to grow, but alts haven't recovered at all. It appears that both whales and retail investors (but mostly whales) don't have much faith in an altcoin summer, which also puts CRYPTOCAP:BTC on shaky ground.
Bull Case: We're still trading within a range and haven't touched the $63.1k resistance for a second time. The VANTAGE:SP500 continues to grow along with the economy, with expectations of four rate cuts ahead.
Bear Case: But with September approaching, some big players will re-enter the market. Historically, September has often seen more stock market declines than gains.
Fear and Greed Index: 43.62, slightly higher.
W: Range trading.
D: Neutral, no divergences.
4h: Even though we've recovered to the highs of August 15th, volume is weak, and we haven't broken through $59.7k.
1h: Divergence. We've hit this resistance for the third time.
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Ethereum remains stuck in the same liquidity zoneEthereum remains stuck in the same liquidity zone. It has shown a bit of strength in the past few days, but the buying pressure is still not enough.
I invite you to check out my analysis on Bitcoin, as it’s currently in a bullish pattern that will cause Bitcoin to take off very soon, which will pull the entire crypto market, including ETH, along with it. So, for now, we are still in the same zone I indicated several weeks ago and moving sideways.
Thank you for supporting my analysis. For now, it's just a matter of waiting and continuing to buy for the next breakout!
Best regards.
ETH (Ethereum): Approaching ResistanceTrade setup : Price broke below its 200-day moving average, which signaled downtrend. However, it got oversold (RSI < 30) near $2,400 support and bounced up. Also notice the unusually high volume, which also suggests that a lot of sellers have already exited. Momentum is inflecting bullish again (MACD Histogram rising) and price could reach $2,850 resistance. This is a riskier trade setup because it’s a trend reversal not a trend continuation setup. It’s against the overall downtrend. The recent launch of nine ETH Spot ETFs could also boost demand for ETH. Learn to trade chart patterns in Lesson 8 and set Stop Loss levels in Lesson 9.
Pattern : Price is Approaching Resistance , which is a level where it could pause or reverse its recent advance, at least temporarily. Resistance is often a level where price got rejected in the past, or potentially prior Support level that was broken. (concept known as polarity). Once price breaks above resistance, it can advance higher to the next resistance level. Learn to trade key levels in Lesson 7.
Trend : Short-term trend is Strong Down, Medium-term trend is Strong Down and Long-term trend is Strong Down.
Momentum : Price is neither overbought nor oversold currently, based on RSI-14 levels (RSI > 30 and RSI < 70).
Support and Resistance : Nearest Support Zone is $2,400.00, then $2,100.00. Nearest Resistance Zone is $2,620.00, then $2,850.00.
OMG! ALT Season is SO CLOSE!!!! ALT HOLDERS will BECOME RICH!6 1/2 years of a corrective cup formation for massive coin absorption in the market for the market makers.
notice each low is holding in an upward support level and not fully reclaiming after each correction down.
notice that the handle from the 2021 bull season trap at the highs was a corrective formation to build out the handle pullback. we are now forming tight consolidation within a small major breakout retest on old resistance from the handle.
when the green triangle breakouts out it will run north! potentially could pull back one more time within the green triangle and retest the support for a major BUYYYY!!
THIS LOOKS SO GOOD AND YOU BETTER HAVE YOUR ALTS READY TO GO!!!
2017 is in motion again!
BULLS WILL RUN HARD!
The Bitcoin LottoRemember when the excitement of the lottery was all about the potential of life-changing wins from just a small ticket price? Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has emerged as the new frontier of that thrilling potential. Once priced at a humble $1,000, Bitcoin was accessible and brimming with promise. Today, with its value as high as $60,000, the landscape has undeniably transformed, offering new opportunities and considerations for investors worldwide.
Bitcoin isn't just a digital currency; it's a revolution that's reshaping financial markets, much like the anticipation of hitting the jackpot. However, unlike the traditional lottery, Bitcoin investment isn't purely about luck—it's about smart, informed decision-making, historical insight, and future potential. Imagine being part of a technological evolution that's not just a game of chance but also a calculated step toward financial empowerment.
When navigating these markets, you want to stay clear of the echo chambers. We have had tails of "98k next month and $135,000 In December" back in 2021.
The main issue with the sentiment at the current levels, are it seems everyone and their dog bought Bitcoin under $20,000 at the exact bottom. They were also calling longs at 69k.
It's an inflation beater, it's just had 12 ETF's approved, there's a price multiplier, sell your house and buy Bitcoin. It looks like Trump might win back the White House and of course, he has endorsed Bitcoin.
The question shouldn't really be "where does this go" instead it should be "why isn't it there yet".
I've joked a couple of times - If you bought a house at 69,000 in 2021 and now in 2024 it's worth 59,000 should you sell it or hold it, I have had replies like "You should have bought Bitcoin"...
This is not a bash against Crypto; it's knowing the value and understanding the perception vs reality dilemma.
The controlled aspect of the move up from 15k to 73 and that high being just enough of a liquidity grab much like 65k to 69k. Years apart, means there is a lot of control in an asset many claim "Cannot be controlled".
The sentiment was all about Freedom and liberty; no institutional control, no government control - Go Trump, Go Blackrock.
My questions remain, If you were lucky in at sub 10k prices - you have had a good trade (providing you profited obviously) Paper gains are not wins.
But where does the additional funding come from for a double of it's current price? Why are we not at 100k+ already after a Trump endorsement, a halving, a price multiplier, 12 ETF's approved?
The world of Social media has made it easier for keyboard warriors to catch every bottom, sell every top (yet never sell anything) and claim paper gains to the moon.
Investing doesn't need to be the same as a lotto ticket. It just needs a good understanding of why liquidity moves the way it does and who's side the profits usually come back to.
Anyway - food for thought this weekend! Have a good one.
Stay safe
Solana Not DeadI am still long Solana and various Solana related memes.
1. Crypto is absolutely insane. You have to be sized accordingly, just like everything else in trading/investing (ballz f*cking deep). I am watching the current intermediate downtrend for a break to the upside and another test of the upper high to high trendline. I think it breaks that in the coming weeks as Solana pushes to new highs. That is unless Solana meme trading degens keep getting farmed and rugged for all their worth.
2. People talk about Solana flipping Ethereum. I think it's possible, but I think Ethereum will move down more and Solana up as gas fees between the chains find an equilibrium. if the ETH holders fight it, they will lose much more than they think possible.
3. Overall, I am bullish on crypto going into another bubble/meme gambling super-cycle fueled by cross-platform bridging between chains. Multichain interoperability. We are seeing it clearly already and I think it will get crazier at some point.
4. As a reformed Crypto cynic/hater, I came to love crypto for how BTC was used to repatriate USD from the Russian Stock Exchange outside of the SWIFT system after Russian sanctions. I don't care if the CIA created Bitcoin and it is tracked completely. I am still bullish BTC for its legacy importance, high value, and transferability.