ETH-USD
ETHUSD - Worst Case ScenarioI believe this yearly chart shows the worst case scenario facing ETH holders, which involves price decisively breaking down from the bearish pinbar that formed on the yearly candle in 2019. If this pattern plays out then the next major support doesn't come into play until around $40-50. That is about 40-50% lower than the lowest price that was hit in the epic selloff last week, and about 65-70% lower than current prices. Hitting this low does not effectively change the long term perspective of Ethereum in my opinion, but would make for an absolutely brutal bear market for everyone.
ETHUSD - Head & Shoulders Intraday (Huge Potential)ETHUSD is forming a head & shoulders pattern on the intraday chart. If this pattern were to break through the neckline and be confirmed it has a $195 price target.
Before bulls get too excited there are some things to keep in mind...
1.Price MUST break the neckline first or there is no H & S.
2.This pattern is forming into a massive selloff. Expect selling pressure on any rally attempts.
3.This is an intraday pattern. Intraday patterns are notoriously less reliable.
ETHUSD - Could See a Pop From This 2 Bar ReversalPrice nearly feel through the bottom of this bear channel but was saved with a sharp reversal which came in the form of a 2 bar reversal on the 6 hour charts. With this reversal we could see price pop up into the resistance area of the channel around 205ish. Given the bearishness of the overall crypto market we could see price hit this area and fall, but if price is able to break this resistance we could price rally up to the next resistance area of 230. I am not going to extrapolate out too far but will be watching how price reacts at each of these key price levels to decide what positions to take at that point in time.
Ethereum/USD, The price can get free out of the Triangle! Now the Price is accumulating in the Triangle.
It can move out of the Triangle's border and grow up.
I may predict, that the Price could break through the Mirror Level and become over.
The best Buy Zone is under the arrow.
When you like my Idea and believe in this forecast, let me know about it!
Wait for your comments and likes!)
ETHUSD - Major Inflection PointETHUSD is at a major inflection point. Price has been winding up inside of a massive inside bar pattern for almost a week now (there are now 5 child candles inside of the mother candle). When such a large inside bar setup forms the breakout is usually quite aggressive. The big question on the table is, will this break up or down... Putting all of the facts on the tab: bullish long-term trend, bearish medium term trend, bearish weekly close, neutral inside bar setup. I think the scales tip slightly in favor of a break downwards, but in the absence of some very clear cut price action, there is nothing on the charts to give me strong conviction one way or the other.
I think the daily close will be important. In my opinion, any close below 224 could be seen as further bearishness but a close above 225 could be seen as bullish. The reason is that there is a fairly clear trendline resistance level in the 224-225 region.
I will likely not make any drastic changes to my position but may take some risk of the board pending bearish intraday or daily price action.
ETHUSD - Bulls Step InYesterday ETH looked as if it want to start a next leg lower with a bearish break of the pennant and a test and rejection on the intraday charts. Overnight bulls were able to be ETH back up through the upper and lower channel of the pennant. With this bullish reversal we may finally see price start to rally again. The big question will be if this is just a relief rally or if we will see higher highs. 250-255 is the next major resistance area and the level to be watching.
ETHUSD - Bearish Test and RejectionETHUSD broke down bearishly from its pennant pattern today. Towards the end of the close it attempted to retake the bottom of the pennant but the attempt failed. This can be seen in the chart with the bearish hammer forming off of the bottom of the pennant. I believe this significantly increases the chances of ETH falling to next support in the 180-200 region.
ETHUSD - Hanging on by a ThreadETH is currently hanging on by a thread by holding the very last tiny bit of support within the bearish pennant. Unless price can reverse strongly from here then the chance of price breaking down in the near future remains high. Even if price is able to bounce from here it will face strong confluent resistance at around $225. If price can break and hold above this $225 by the end of the day tomorrow, then it significantly reduces the chance that price will break down from here. There is a final scenario that needs to be pointed out. There is currently a double inside bar pattern that has formed. If price were to break above $240 and then pull all the way back down to $220-ish or lower, this would be an extremely bearish double inside bar / pin bar fakeout.
ETHUSD - Buy the Dips or Sell the Rips?Across the board we saw a market where sellers dominated buyers. Technical damage was done today. Unless that damage can be repaired with price retaking key support levels in short order, then this market will move from "buy the dips" to "sell the rips". I will be watching how price reacts to these resistance levels to make my next moves.
ETHUSD - Short Term Bearish Scenario is Playing OutIn this video I recap my analysis from yesterday talk about the next 2 or 3 most likely scenario's now that price has broken through the "red-zone support" that I outlined yesterday. The importance of identifying these scenario's is because these are the specific price levels that I will be watching for candlestick signals to form. If a specific candlestick pattern forms from one of these key levels, that will be the information I need to make my next trade decisions.
I have this market currently flagged as neutral, which means holding current positions and not taken on any new positions (either long or short) until the market produces a tradable candlestick signal.
ETHUSD - ETH is in the Support Red-ZoneEth is now just holding above the most generous trendline that can be drawn (very tips of the candle wicks) and below the "best fit" trendline. I consider this area a red-zone as it is sitting above its very last bit of support. Failing to hold this level could trigger a sharp selloff.
I have marked the 2 most common scenario's that could play out. The bullish scenario is one where buying comes in and pushes price comfortable back above this trend-line zone and keeps the immediately bullish scenario alive. The bearish scenario is one where price breaks the pennant and then drops before buying comes back in to retest the bottom of the pennant. If the test were to fail then we could see a much larger and more prolonged selloff. There are of course other scenario's not marked on my chart that could play out. One is that the bottom falls out in price and then immediately v-reverses which would be an extremely bullish outcome. Another scenario is that the bottom falls out and price does not pull back to retest the pennant, which would be a very bearish outcome.
With no clear direction, and conflicting bullish and bearish signals, this is really a watch and wait market right now.
ETHUSD - Inside Bar / Hammer Continuation PatternETHUSD has thrown an Inside Bar / Hammer pattern. This specific pattern is bullish and would signal a continuation of the prevailing trend. The biggest risk I can find with this trade is that there is significant resistance overhead. Given the significance of this resistance level, if price is able to break through it, it could do so very aggressively.
As always, trading is based probabilities, not certainties. Trade accordingly.
ETH/USD 2-17-20 THRU 2-21-20 : A VERY AMATEUR PROJECTION I started building this chart at the BUY arrow. This is in NO way a suggestion to anyone as an investment strategy. I have recently began to study pretty heavily. I am 39 years old now and the future of commerce is suddenly very exciting for me. I would like to learn enough to be confident and perhaps become a major player someday. Crypto currency is especially intriguing for me because it has opened new doors for a global economy and I believe it will eventually bring us closer together as a global community and society. I'm curious now, to see how the market reacts this week after a Bear Attack of a weekend. My VERY amateur opinion is that there will be a strong correction by midweek across the board. I will happily accept any feedback or criticism as long as it is constructive. Thanks! Have a great week!
Daily Set & ForgetDear traders,
We spent the last 8 years Researching how Financial Derivatives behave. We built a financial model that applies Universal Equations to model any instrument into 9 states. Those states are the steady trend (1), the reversal (2), the strong trend (3), the super trend (4) and the flat market (0). We then calculated the second derivative of the model and used it with momentum to work out where price is heading next.
We wanted to avoid paying commission on our trades so we only review our portfolio at the end of the day or at a specific time each day. By minimising the commission costs we have become far more profitable. A strategy that makes 200% in 10 trades is better than a strategy that makes 200% in 200 if the commission cost on BitMEX is 0.4% all round trip.
Coming from an FX market background we have always preferred diversification - rather than only trading XBTUSD we opted to trade all 8 MEX contracts. For example if we have 10 BTC in our account we will allocate 10% for each trade as the initial margin. We use 10X leverage on our trades but only invest 10% of our account - some of our trades will be long and some will be short. Very rarely we are completeley long or completely short. 6/8 of the BitMEX contracts are relative to XBT so the movement is also not as much as the USD markets when levered.
We keep our stop losses at 5%. Typically once trades have gone into profit BitMEX automatically delevers them - so our trading margin on our whole account is usually 5X.
Our results from 2018 and 2019 show that we can generate about 10 to 35% per week on average. With some weeks in October 2018 generating substantially more depending on the volatility of the market. As a rule of thumb we make 10 to 35% every week.
I am 100% against 'drawn in' analysis - unless the author can create a Financial Model or a mathematical theory or proof that can be shown to generate abnormal returns from atleast 1990 to 2019 on the 4 main assetclasses (FX, Equities, Commodities and Bonds). TA strategies consisting of ( Trend Lines , Flags, Pennants Fib Retracements, Elliot Waves etc) can be coded into the TradingView platform. I do not believe trading is an 'art', I believe it is quant based with many Wall Street Hedge Funds running the show such as Two Sigma, Bridgewater Associates and Renaissance Technologies. The 'art' of technical analysis was something which was invented in the 1920's. We are now almost in the 2020's. Drawn lines on charts were first invented in the Roaring 20's - this was prior to the Digital Age. People would collect quotes and plot them by hand on paper back then. As Technology advances further and further the TA you are learning is will prove to be obsolete.
On our website we have two free downloads - Empowering Futures and Getting Started.
The first one is about our story and who we are, while the second one shows you where to begin and what you need to do.
If you have any questions don't hesitate to DM us. We only trade the 1440 for crypto and 770 timeframes for FX, Commodities and Stocks.
2018 to 2019 Results: 5927%
XBTUSD: +70%
ETHUSD: 363%
TRXXBT: 184%
LTCXBT: 15%
EOSXBT: 343%
BCHXBT: 496%
ADAXBT: 414%
XRPXBT: 120%
Best regards,
Grey Trading UK
Daily Set & ForgetDear traders,
We spent the last 8 years Researching how Financial Derivatives behave. We built a financial model that applies Universal Equations to model any instrument into 9 states. Those states are the steady trend (1), the reversal (2), the strong trend (3), the super trend (4) and the flat market (0). We then calculated the second derivative of the model and used it with momentum to work out where price is heading next.
We wanted to avoid paying commission on our trades so we only review our portfolio at the end of the day or at a specific time each day. By minimising the commission costs we have become far more profitable. A strategy that makes 200% in 10 trades is better than a strategy that makes 200% in 200 if the commission cost on BitMEX is 0.4% all round trip.
Coming from an FX market background we have always preferred diversification - rather than only trading XBTUSD we opted to trade all 8 MEX contracts. For example if we have 10 BTC in our account we will allocate 10% for each trade as the initial margin. We use 10X leverage on our trades but only invest 10% of our account - some of our trades will be long and some will be short. Very rarely we are completeley long or completely short. 6/8 of the BitMEX contracts are relative to XBT so the movement is also not as much as the USD markets when levered.
We keep our stop losses at 5%. Typically once trades have gone into profit BitMEX automatically delevers them - so our trading margin on our whole account is usually 5X.
Our results from 2018 and 2019 show that we can generate about 10 to 35% per week on average. With some weeks in October 2018 generating substantially more depending on the volatility of the market. As a rule of thumb we make 10 to 35% every week.
I am 100% against 'drawn in' analysis - unless the author can create a Financial Model or a mathematical theory or proof that can be shown to generate abnormal returns from atleast 1990 to 2019 on the 4 main assetclasses (FX, Equities, Commodities and Bonds). TA strategies consisting of ( Trend Lines , Flags, Pennants Fib Retracements, Elliot Waves etc) can be coded into the TradingView platform. I do not believe trading is an 'art', I believe it is quant based with many Wall Street Hedge Funds running the show such as Two Sigma, Bridgewater Associates and Renaissance Technologies. The 'art' of technical analysis was something which was invented in the 1920's. We are now almost in the 2020's. Drawn lines on charts were first invented in the Roaring 20's - this was prior to the Digital Age. People would collect quotes and plot them by hand on paper back then. As Technology advances further and further the TA you are learning is will prove to be obsolete.
On our website we have two free downloads - Empowering Futures and Getting Started.
The first one is about our story and who we are, while the second one shows you where to begin and what you need to do.
If you have any questions don't hesitate to DM us. We only trade the 1440 for crypto and 770 timeframes for FX, Commodities and Stocks.
2018 to 2019 Results: 5927%
XBTUSD: +70%
ETHUSD: 363%
TRXXBT: 184%
LTCXBT: 15%
EOSXBT: 343%
BCHXBT: 496%
ADAXBT: 414%
XRPXBT: 120%
Best regards,
Grey Trading UK
ETH next big levels if this is not the topif 195 breaks, we should be moving to other levels.
I have a feeling we could be in the top of this move
ETH going to 140 to retest of falling wedge and 50MAwe broke the falling wedge and were rejected by the 200MA, and we are going to retest the falling wedge as a resistance and the 50MA.
ETH/USD correction pour trouver un bas de 2Si nous prenons en consideration le derniers plus bas comme étant un bas de deux en figure elliotiste, les dernieres impulsion haussiere de plus petite envergure nous donne un compte de 5 vagues pour former la premiére vague d'une 3, les derniéres bougies baissiéres en 15 minutes nous confortent pour une correction en ABC afin de trouver un bas de 2 qui se trouve repésenté par un carré Orange sur le graphique que je vous propose.
la ligne jaune dans ce carré représente la niveau de retracement habituel pour une vague 1 c'est a dire 61.8%.
L'invalidation de cette hypothése apparait en pointillé blanc.
Par la suite si vous le souhaitez je vous donnerez les objectifs de la vague 3 de deuxieme degré quand l'objectif de 2 sera atteint.
Bon trade
ETHUSD - Intraday Bull Flag is FormingAfter yesterday's large run up it looks like price is consolidating above critical support. There is confluence of support between the bottom of the flag and major horizontal support at $155.
ETHUSD - Fresh Outlook - Strong Like BullIn this video I recap all of the major price action patterns that have appeared over the past month and then lay out what I think is the highest probability path going forward.
