ETH-USD
ETHUSD - Buy the Dips or Sell the Rips?Across the board we saw a market where sellers dominated buyers. Technical damage was done today. Unless that damage can be repaired with price retaking key support levels in short order, then this market will move from "buy the dips" to "sell the rips". I will be watching how price reacts to these resistance levels to make my next moves.
ETHUSD - Short Term Bearish Scenario is Playing OutIn this video I recap my analysis from yesterday talk about the next 2 or 3 most likely scenario's now that price has broken through the "red-zone support" that I outlined yesterday. The importance of identifying these scenario's is because these are the specific price levels that I will be watching for candlestick signals to form. If a specific candlestick pattern forms from one of these key levels, that will be the information I need to make my next trade decisions.
I have this market currently flagged as neutral, which means holding current positions and not taken on any new positions (either long or short) until the market produces a tradable candlestick signal.
ETHUSD - ETH is in the Support Red-ZoneEth is now just holding above the most generous trendline that can be drawn (very tips of the candle wicks) and below the "best fit" trendline. I consider this area a red-zone as it is sitting above its very last bit of support. Failing to hold this level could trigger a sharp selloff.
I have marked the 2 most common scenario's that could play out. The bullish scenario is one where buying comes in and pushes price comfortable back above this trend-line zone and keeps the immediately bullish scenario alive. The bearish scenario is one where price breaks the pennant and then drops before buying comes back in to retest the bottom of the pennant. If the test were to fail then we could see a much larger and more prolonged selloff. There are of course other scenario's not marked on my chart that could play out. One is that the bottom falls out in price and then immediately v-reverses which would be an extremely bullish outcome. Another scenario is that the bottom falls out and price does not pull back to retest the pennant, which would be a very bearish outcome.
With no clear direction, and conflicting bullish and bearish signals, this is really a watch and wait market right now.
ETHUSD - Inside Bar / Hammer Continuation PatternETHUSD has thrown an Inside Bar / Hammer pattern. This specific pattern is bullish and would signal a continuation of the prevailing trend. The biggest risk I can find with this trade is that there is significant resistance overhead. Given the significance of this resistance level, if price is able to break through it, it could do so very aggressively.
As always, trading is based probabilities, not certainties. Trade accordingly.
ETH/USD 2-17-20 THRU 2-21-20 : A VERY AMATEUR PROJECTION I started building this chart at the BUY arrow. This is in NO way a suggestion to anyone as an investment strategy. I have recently began to study pretty heavily. I am 39 years old now and the future of commerce is suddenly very exciting for me. I would like to learn enough to be confident and perhaps become a major player someday. Crypto currency is especially intriguing for me because it has opened new doors for a global economy and I believe it will eventually bring us closer together as a global community and society. I'm curious now, to see how the market reacts this week after a Bear Attack of a weekend. My VERY amateur opinion is that there will be a strong correction by midweek across the board. I will happily accept any feedback or criticism as long as it is constructive. Thanks! Have a great week!
Daily Set & ForgetDear traders,
We spent the last 8 years Researching how Financial Derivatives behave. We built a financial model that applies Universal Equations to model any instrument into 9 states. Those states are the steady trend (1), the reversal (2), the strong trend (3), the super trend (4) and the flat market (0). We then calculated the second derivative of the model and used it with momentum to work out where price is heading next.
We wanted to avoid paying commission on our trades so we only review our portfolio at the end of the day or at a specific time each day. By minimising the commission costs we have become far more profitable. A strategy that makes 200% in 10 trades is better than a strategy that makes 200% in 200 if the commission cost on BitMEX is 0.4% all round trip.
Coming from an FX market background we have always preferred diversification - rather than only trading XBTUSD we opted to trade all 8 MEX contracts. For example if we have 10 BTC in our account we will allocate 10% for each trade as the initial margin. We use 10X leverage on our trades but only invest 10% of our account - some of our trades will be long and some will be short. Very rarely we are completeley long or completely short. 6/8 of the BitMEX contracts are relative to XBT so the movement is also not as much as the USD markets when levered.
We keep our stop losses at 5%. Typically once trades have gone into profit BitMEX automatically delevers them - so our trading margin on our whole account is usually 5X.
Our results from 2018 and 2019 show that we can generate about 10 to 35% per week on average. With some weeks in October 2018 generating substantially more depending on the volatility of the market. As a rule of thumb we make 10 to 35% every week.
I am 100% against 'drawn in' analysis - unless the author can create a Financial Model or a mathematical theory or proof that can be shown to generate abnormal returns from atleast 1990 to 2019 on the 4 main assetclasses (FX, Equities, Commodities and Bonds). TA strategies consisting of ( Trend Lines , Flags, Pennants Fib Retracements, Elliot Waves etc) can be coded into the TradingView platform. I do not believe trading is an 'art', I believe it is quant based with many Wall Street Hedge Funds running the show such as Two Sigma, Bridgewater Associates and Renaissance Technologies. The 'art' of technical analysis was something which was invented in the 1920's. We are now almost in the 2020's. Drawn lines on charts were first invented in the Roaring 20's - this was prior to the Digital Age. People would collect quotes and plot them by hand on paper back then. As Technology advances further and further the TA you are learning is will prove to be obsolete.
On our website we have two free downloads - Empowering Futures and Getting Started.
The first one is about our story and who we are, while the second one shows you where to begin and what you need to do.
If you have any questions don't hesitate to DM us. We only trade the 1440 for crypto and 770 timeframes for FX, Commodities and Stocks.
2018 to 2019 Results: 5927%
XBTUSD: +70%
ETHUSD: 363%
TRXXBT: 184%
LTCXBT: 15%
EOSXBT: 343%
BCHXBT: 496%
ADAXBT: 414%
XRPXBT: 120%
Best regards,
Grey Trading UK
Daily Set & ForgetDear traders,
We spent the last 8 years Researching how Financial Derivatives behave. We built a financial model that applies Universal Equations to model any instrument into 9 states. Those states are the steady trend (1), the reversal (2), the strong trend (3), the super trend (4) and the flat market (0). We then calculated the second derivative of the model and used it with momentum to work out where price is heading next.
We wanted to avoid paying commission on our trades so we only review our portfolio at the end of the day or at a specific time each day. By minimising the commission costs we have become far more profitable. A strategy that makes 200% in 10 trades is better than a strategy that makes 200% in 200 if the commission cost on BitMEX is 0.4% all round trip.
Coming from an FX market background we have always preferred diversification - rather than only trading XBTUSD we opted to trade all 8 MEX contracts. For example if we have 10 BTC in our account we will allocate 10% for each trade as the initial margin. We use 10X leverage on our trades but only invest 10% of our account - some of our trades will be long and some will be short. Very rarely we are completeley long or completely short. 6/8 of the BitMEX contracts are relative to XBT so the movement is also not as much as the USD markets when levered.
We keep our stop losses at 5%. Typically once trades have gone into profit BitMEX automatically delevers them - so our trading margin on our whole account is usually 5X.
Our results from 2018 and 2019 show that we can generate about 10 to 35% per week on average. With some weeks in October 2018 generating substantially more depending on the volatility of the market. As a rule of thumb we make 10 to 35% every week.
I am 100% against 'drawn in' analysis - unless the author can create a Financial Model or a mathematical theory or proof that can be shown to generate abnormal returns from atleast 1990 to 2019 on the 4 main assetclasses (FX, Equities, Commodities and Bonds). TA strategies consisting of ( Trend Lines , Flags, Pennants Fib Retracements, Elliot Waves etc) can be coded into the TradingView platform. I do not believe trading is an 'art', I believe it is quant based with many Wall Street Hedge Funds running the show such as Two Sigma, Bridgewater Associates and Renaissance Technologies. The 'art' of technical analysis was something which was invented in the 1920's. We are now almost in the 2020's. Drawn lines on charts were first invented in the Roaring 20's - this was prior to the Digital Age. People would collect quotes and plot them by hand on paper back then. As Technology advances further and further the TA you are learning is will prove to be obsolete.
On our website we have two free downloads - Empowering Futures and Getting Started.
The first one is about our story and who we are, while the second one shows you where to begin and what you need to do.
If you have any questions don't hesitate to DM us. We only trade the 1440 for crypto and 770 timeframes for FX, Commodities and Stocks.
2018 to 2019 Results: 5927%
XBTUSD: +70%
ETHUSD: 363%
TRXXBT: 184%
LTCXBT: 15%
EOSXBT: 343%
BCHXBT: 496%
ADAXBT: 414%
XRPXBT: 120%
Best regards,
Grey Trading UK
ETH/USD correction pour trouver un bas de 2Si nous prenons en consideration le derniers plus bas comme étant un bas de deux en figure elliotiste, les dernieres impulsion haussiere de plus petite envergure nous donne un compte de 5 vagues pour former la premiére vague d'une 3, les derniéres bougies baissiéres en 15 minutes nous confortent pour une correction en ABC afin de trouver un bas de 2 qui se trouve repésenté par un carré Orange sur le graphique que je vous propose.
la ligne jaune dans ce carré représente la niveau de retracement habituel pour une vague 1 c'est a dire 61.8%.
L'invalidation de cette hypothése apparait en pointillé blanc.
Par la suite si vous le souhaitez je vous donnerez les objectifs de la vague 3 de deuxieme degré quand l'objectif de 2 sera atteint.
Bon trade
ETHUSD - Plethora of Bullishness on Daily CandlesticksIn this video I look at a few of the bullish price action patterns that have formed on the daily charts including bullish engulfing bars, 2 bar reversals, and a 1-2-3 reversal pattern.
As a side note: I am going to try and keep future videos at 5 minutes or less. I didn't quite hit the mark with this one but am doing a lot better.
ETHUSD - Fresh Outlook - The Bull Is Still AliveFresh Outlook: Almost 2 weeks ago I pointed out that fact that price action in ETHUSD looked quite bullish and we could see a pop in price. Since that analysis, price has indeed popped and a bullish rally has ensued, at least in the short term. The current price action is that it looks as though the recent attempt by bears to push price lower is being rejected and the bull is still alive. I noted in my last analysis that $137 was a key price level that needed to hold for this bull to keep running. Price pulled back and briefly dipped below $137 before staging a sharp reversal from that level. If price is able to break above the local high of $148, that will be the proof we need to see that this bull is alive and a long term bottom is still in play.
Risks: The biggest risk I see is massive overhead resistance at $150. The best possible outcome is price slicing through that level like a hot knife through butter and then being able to hold above that level on a daily and weekly closing basis. The worst case is if price reaches or breaks above it, and then is slammed back down. That totally crush the bullish outlook in the short-to-medium term, and the bulls would have more technical damage to repair.
In summary: The bullish signals from a week or two ago did indeed lead to a rally in price. It is yet to be seen if that bull can continue, but as of right now the key price levels are holding. Price action right now is not ultra-bullish, but somewhere closer to neutral-to-bullish. Keep in mind that rallies within major bear trends can be very fragile. Always keep your stops tight if you decide to go long during a major bear trend. If you are swing trading this, there have been plenty of opportunities to establish long positions and then lock in profits with trailing stops or other types of price/pivot based stops. If you are building a long term position then this would have been the perfect place to put your dry powder to work and buy another tranche.
Don't miss the great buy opportunity in ETHUSDTrading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (147.35). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. ETHUSD is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 38.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 168.00
TP2= @ 191.75
TP3= @ 224.15
SL= Break below S2