ETH
ETH Building Blocks...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
ETH Building Blocks:
📈 Short-Term Bullish:
ETH is currently trading within a short-term bullish block.
📈 Long-Term Bullish:
If the $3,500 resistance level is broken to the upside, ETH is expected to enter a long-term bullish block, initiating a new bullish phase toward the $4,000 mark.
📉 Short-Term Bearish:
If ETH breaks below the short-term bullish block at $3,250, it will enter a short-term bearish block phase.
📉 Long-Term Bearish:
If the $3,000 level is broken to the downside, a long-term bearish movement toward the lower bound of the long-term bearish block, around the $2,500 mark, is expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Is Ethereum Ready to Rally? Critical Levels and Elliott Wave InsIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Ethereum Analysis: Key Levels and Market Structure
Ethereum has been moving in tandem with Bitcoin, but there are some distinct levels and market structures developing that are worth paying attention to. While most of the focus has been on BTC, ETH has been presenting some solid trade setups as well. Here’s my breakdown of where we stand and what I’m watching next.
Holding the Low: 2563 as a Double Zig-Zag
Ethereum has been working through a potential 2xZZ (double zig-zag) pattern, and 2563 stands as a key level to maintain that structure. If this low holds, the bullish case remains intact. However, we aren’t currently sitting in a Golden Zone (GZ) or a major discount level based on the recent dump, which adds some caution to aggressive entries.
Bullish Steps: 2665 & 2800 as Critical Resistance
For any bullish momentum to materialize, the first step is 2665—this level needs to break for buyers to start taking control. From there, 2800 is the larger resistance level that Ethereum must break and hold to show real strength. A rejection at this zone could lead to another corrective leg downward.
Confirmation of the Double ZZ: 2900 Break
The completion of the double zig-zag pattern will be officially confirmed with a break of the 2900 pivot. This is the critical point where bullish structure would be fully validated, signaling further upside potential. Until that happens, Ethereum remains in a make-or-break zone.
Until then, I’ll be watching how price action (PA) prints before making any major decisions. What do you think—will ETH break through or are we looking at more downside? Drop your thoughts below!
Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
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The elusive alt season... Is QE coming soon?The magical Alt season never seems to come. Most have thrown in the towel or lost all their money, which is a good sign the bottom is in.
The secret here is paying close attention to the FED's (FRED:WALCL) Quantitative tightening and easing.
Since the start in 2008, we have always either had QE or some sort of pause like you see in the 2016/17 bull run, but as soon as the FED flips to tightening, what happens? BTC pauses.
It is true that Bitcoin has performed very well during tightening cycles, as massive corporations like BlackRock and MicroStrategy are eating through the supply.
As for the altcoin market, it has been a bloodbath. One thing that’s clear to me is that altcoins need the FED to flip to QE in order to get things really going.
Going over the latest FED's Monetary Policy Report that came out yesterday, it hints that they are close to ending their tightening cycle and easing off a bit.
**WHICH IS HUGE NEWS!**
We can now see that this is true indeed because the red line is now starting to flatten out, just like in 2020 before the FED flipped to QE.
As far as the technicals go, the altcoin chart has now formed an ascending triangle and, for now, is still printing higher lows. 20 days left for this monthly candle to close.
If, let's say, this monthly candle breaks ATH and closes above it, it could signal the start of the alt season, and if history repeats, we’re looking at a run-up from March 2025 to September/October 2025.
So the next FOMC meeting from the FED is the most important of the year. Now that this report hints at the end of the tightening cycle, is it possible that at the next FOMC meeting on March 18th, 2025, they will announce the end of tightening and trigger the start of the alt season?
Pretty heavy upper wick for now on the BTC.D. It’s currently on the .702 retracement. Is this the top?
A chart I use a lot. Really want to see this monthly candle close back into this triangle.
**Alts/USDT.D**
This chart is one of the most important ones I’m looking at right now. Currently forming a bump-and-run reversal, and again, very bullish if we hold the neckline.
The USDT.D chart will always lead the way. It’s always one step ahead, never fails me. Until we see a break of this green support line, we won’t see ALT season. The bear flag pattern target is the same target as April 2021, which is interesting.
As I published on my ETH TA, if we close the weekly in this channel, it will be very bullish.
### Conclusion
I'm extremely bullish right now. Leverage has been reset, greed has been reset, and everyone is throwing in the towel. On social media, "it's over" talk is everywhere. This is the kind of depression I'm looking for to tell me it’s the start of ALT season and not the end.
**Invalidation of this thesis would be the following:**
- ETH closes weekly under the channel
- Bump-and-run reversal fails to hold the neckline
- FED does not flip to QE in the FOMC meeting on March 18th
If all these things happen, I will flip bearish. Until then, I'm extremely confident that this is the bottom, and you should go all out, lay all the cards down, take out loans, put all your chips on the table—it’s time to go hard or go home!
The key is whether it can rise above the M-Signal of 1M chart
(Title) The key is whether it can rise above the M-Signal of 1M chart
(Example of a trading strategy when trading spot)
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(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can rise above the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator after receiving support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If it fails to rise above 2879.90, it is likely to fall to around 2316.10-2513.01.
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In order to trade, you need to check the support and resistance points when it rises above at least the 5EMA+StErr indicator and shows support.
In other words, it is expected that it will be important whether it is supported near 2879.90.
In order to turn into an uptrend, the price must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D, 1W charts and maintain the price.
Based on the current position, it seems that it will be possible only if it rises above 3136.41.
However, since the 3265.0-3321.30 section is an important support and resistance section, it is expected that the uptrend will continue only if it rises above this section.
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If you have selected support and resistance points, you should consider whether you can create a trading strategy near that point.
The indicators suitable for creating a trading strategy are the HA-Low indicator and the HA-High indicator.
Since it is currently located within the box section of the HA-Low indicator, you can create a trading strategy when it receives support near the upper point of the box and rises.
The box section of the HA-Low indicator is 2125.01-2921.0.
Accordingly, you can see that it corresponds to an important point around 2879.90.
Then, you can respond depending on whether there is support in the M-Signal indicator of the 1D, 1W chart or the 3265.0-3321.30 section.
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Spot trading is a place where you can get new opportunities when it falls.
However, if the investment period is short or less, you do not need to set up a trading strategy because you have to make profits while you are making profits.
However, if you are trading for a short or longer investment period, you can sell some of the amount corresponding to the purchase principal and buy back the amount sold when the price falls to increase the holding amount.
On the other hand, there is also a method of selling some of the purchase principal when the price rises after buying and buying back when the price falls.
However, there is a risk because it can rise before buying again when it is on an upward trend.
Therefore, when trading in the spot market, the time of decline is an important time to create a trading strategy, and you have to trade very busily.
If you sell all the amount corresponding to the purchase principal in this way, only the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit will remain, so from then on, you will have pure coins (tokens) with an average purchase price of 0.
I think that increasing the number of coins (tokens) is a good trading method for long-term investment in the spot market.
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You should always hold about 20% of the total investment amount in cash.
This is because you can get a good opportunity when a large volatility like this occurs.
If you do not have cash, you must sell a certain amount to secure cash.
Even if you are losing money in the spot market, if you increase the amount held by selling and then buying as above, you can convert it into profit more quickly.
In my chart, the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts) indicator, which is a trend indicator, is important.
We need to observe in real time to see how to utilize this.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support or resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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ETHUSD: Replicating Bitcoin's past Cycle to $14,000?Ethereum is almost oversold on 1D and straight bearish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 41.942, MACD = 3.920, ADX = 30.130) struggling to find bullish momentum and get detached from the consolidation it's been inside since March 2024. The whole Cycle however is technically much like Bitcoin's 2018-2021 Cycle. As the 1W MA200-1M MA50 zone supported Bitcoin on the Cycle bottom and later during the COVID crash, it is doing so on Ethereum for the past 2 years and most recently this week. If it holds, we may see a massive rally starting to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 14,000).
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ETH Long Spot OpportunityMarket Context:
ETH has retraced into a major support zone, presenting a high-probability long setup. If the price stabilizes and confirms support in this range, we expect a move toward key resistance levels.
Trade Details:
Entry Zone: $2,180 - $2,400
Take Profit Targets:
$2,700 - $3,050
$3,750 - $4,100
Stop Loss: Just below $2,000
This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, targeting higher timeframe bullish continuation. Stick to the plan and manage risk accordingly! 📈🔥
ETH Holding Strong – A Massive Move Ahead?Ethereum has shown strong respect for key price levels, particularly around $2.1K and $2.8K. Despite market volatility, the $2.1K support has held well, reinforcing its significance in Ethereum’s price structure. These levels have consistently influenced price action throughout the year, acting as crucial areas for buyers and sellers. Holding above them signals strength while breaking below could indicate weakness.
Currently, ETH is trading near the $2.8K resistance, a critical level for further upward movement. A decisive breakout above this zone would improve the higher timeframe outlook, potentially opening the door for a stronger rally. The faster Ethereum clears this resistance, the more bullish the market structure remains, increasing the likelihood of sustained momentum toward higher levels.
TOTAL Cryptocurrencies: Global Market Indicator and AnalysisAccording to my theory, we are witnessing a crypto market growth cycle with a growth phase of 35 months and a correction phase of 13 weeks. I expect the crypto market to continue to grow until November 1, 2025, driven by the arrival of large investment funds and corporations behind blockchain technology as well as tokenization. The RWA sector is at a nascent stage and trillions of assets will be tokenized and used for fast transactions, ease of transfers, 24-hour accessibility and transparency. In addition, the arrival of institutional investors via ETFs should not be overlooked. Today, BlackRock owns over 470k BINANCE:BTCUSDT and is unlikely to stop. BYBIT:ETHUSDT is undervalued, BINANCE:SOLUSDT shows the very availability of cryptocurrency for everyone on the planet. Memesession is actually testing the Solana network for its suitability for massadoption. Staying bearish regarding the cryptocurrency market looks like ignoring the internet in the early 2000s. Focus on the RWA direction, a large number of projects are about to show parabolic growth!
Horban Brothers.
Shiro Neko $Shiro Big Move IncomingIf you missed the Shiba Inu run, Shiro Neko could be your next golden opportunity. The same team that propelled SHIB to mainstream adoption is behind this project, and its early performance has already caught the market's attention.
Shiro Neko hit an impressive SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B market cap on launch and, after a period of consolidation, is gearing up for its next move.
📊 Market Analysis & Potential Reversal
Strong community-driven momentum similar to early SHIB & DOGE.
High-volume accumulation zones suggest whales positioning before the next breakout.
Support forming in key price levels, indicating potential for a parabolic move.
Key Catalysts for Growth
✅ Previous ATH – $SHIRO already reached SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B market cap, and a retest could be imminent.
✅ Dev Team with Proven Success – The same minds behind SHIB’s legendary run.
✅ Expanding Ecosystem – New listings, partnerships, and real-world utility in development.
✅ Early-stage growth potential – Market cap still has significant room to expand.
BINANCE:ETHUSDT BINANCE:CHILLGUYUSDT.P BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
Shiro Neko ($SHIRO) – Next Big Move IncomingIf you missed the Shiba Inu run, Shiro Neko could be your next golden opportunity. The same team that propelled SHIB to mainstream adoption is behind this project, and its early performance has already caught the market's attention.
Shiro Neko hit an impressive SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B market cap on launch and, after a period of consolidation, is gearing up for its next move.
📊 Market Analysis & Potential Reversal
Strong community-driven momentum similar to early SHIB & DOGE.
High-volume accumulation zones suggest whales positioning before the next breakout.
Support forming in key price levels, indicating potential for a parabolic move.
💎 Key Catalysts for Growth
✅ Previous ATH – $SHIRO already reached 1-Bi market cap, and a retest could be imminent.
✅ Dev Team with Proven Success – The same minds behind SHIB’s legendary run.
✅ Expanding Ecosystem – New listings, partnerships, and real-world utility in development.
✅ Early-stage growth potential – Market cap still has significant room to expand.
The RSI is primed for a sharp reversal, signaling strong bullish momentum ahead. With increasing accumulation and volume building up, we could see an astronomical breakout in the coming days. 🚀
The setup is aligning perfectly—once key resistance is breached, expect a rapid surge. Keep an eye on price action; this could be the beginning of a massive rally!
Risk-Reward Ratio Looks Favorable
The risk-to-reward setup here could be one of the best in the current altcoin market. If momentum kicks in, Shiro Neko could replicate SHIB’s meteoric rise.
Next Moves:
Breakout confirmation above = Entry trigger.
Retest of ATH 1-bi market cap = Mid-term target.
Blue-sky breakout scenario = 🚀🚀🚀
Watch closely and prepare your entries – the next explosive move could be closer than expected! CRYPTO:SHIROUSD GATEIO:SHIROUSDT COINBASE:SHIBUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
The failure of the POS (Proof of Stake) mechanismHave you noticed that many altcoin projects older than three years are bleeding to death? The total market cap of altcoins is also declining significantly.
One possible reason for this could be the failure of the Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism.
Bitcoin was created with a deflationary system called Proof of Work (PoW), which ensures that the number of coins generated decreases over time, creating scarcity and a deflationary economy. The rewards are fixed through a public mathematical formula, allowing future supply to be anticipated. The reduction in the number of coins mined daily is called the halving, which occurs every four years for Bitcoin.
However, over the last four years, leftist and democratic political forces pushed the crypto industry to adopt a less energy-intensive system. This led to the creation of the PoS mechanism.
How PoS Works
Proof of Stake generates rewards based on the amount of cryptocurrency staked. The percentage of rewards allocated each month is determined by governance votes, which are controlled by individuals or entities meeting a certain staking threshold. This system eliminates the need for computational power to mint new coins and encourages holders to stake their tokens rather than sell them on the market.
Today, most of the top 100 Layer-1 blockchains rely on PoS. For example, the entire Cosmos ( NASDAQ:ATOM ) ecosystem uses PoS, as do projects like CRYPTOCAP:INJ , LSE:TIA , NYSE:FET , NYSE:SEI , and even $ETH.
The Problem with PoS
Unfortunately, this technology is showing its limitations, and as a result, many PoS-powered blockchains are struggling.
Key Issues:
Inflationary Nature:
PoS systems are inherently inflationary. As the number of staked tokens increases over time, the staking rewards also grow. Unlike PoW systems like Bitcoin, which create scarcity through halving events, PoS fails to do so, resulting in the opposite effect—oversupply.
Self-serving Governance:
Staking rewards are determined by governance votes cast by those who hold and stake the tokens. These participants have little incentive to vote for lower rewards, as it would reduce their income. This creates a system where whales and early adopters accumulate large amounts of tokens, benefiting from monthly rewards and becoming "retired" contributors to the ecosystem.
Bad for Retail Investors:
Retail investors suffer the most under PoS systems. The total supply of tokens increases logarithmically over time, causing the price of the coin to decline. Initially, the excitement around the project’s growth may offset this inflation, especially during the early stages of token generation events (TGEs) and favorable tokenomics. However, as staking rewards continue to mint new tokens, platforms like CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko fail to account for the rising supply, leading to hidden inflation.
Why These Projects Are Bleeding
This inflationary pressure, regardless of a project’s quality, is why many PoS projects are in decline. Holding these tokens long-term is a disastrous decision for retail investors. They are unknowingly holding coins that suffer from far higher inflation than is visible, creating a deceptive and exploitative system that slowly drains value from their holdings.
The Solution
The solution to this problem would be to remove governance-based reward decisions and implement a fixed annual reduction in staking APY (Annual Percentage Yield), similar to Bitcoin's halving mechanism. This would ensure that the supply is predictable, and coin generation becomes deflationary over time.
The Current Reality
Unfortunately, many PoS projects appear content to continue bleeding value from their coins. As a result, it’s advisable not to hold PoS projects for more than three years. The older the project, the more inflationary the PoS system becomes.
Public trade #22 - #ETH price analysis ( Ethereum )💰 In continuation of our global idea for #Ethereum
03/02/25 for the first time liquidations on CRYPTOCAP:ETH exceeded liquidations on CRYPTOCAP:BTC
There are already a lot of “investigations” from Twitterers and not only how manipulative the market drain was on “red-black” Monday, but these are the realities of an unregulated market and “crazy” participants at all levels and ranks!)
They achieved their goal of wresting assets, including CRYPTOCAP:ETH , from weak hands and accumulating them in strong hands for future achievements.
In particular, the Trump family foundation owns $400m+ of #ETH, half of which was bought back at the recent notorious drop.
Well, we need to be in the trend and also bribe #ETH into our investment portfolio and crypto trading
🟢 Desirable OKX:ETHUSDT purchase zone - $2441-$2551
1️⃣ TP1 - $3800-3900
2️⃣ TP2 - $5900-6000
⌛️ And then: we'll see...
_____________________
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Ethereum Analysis – Inverse Head and Shoulders Formationhello guys!
Pattern Formation:
The chart illustrates a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is a well-known reversal signal indicating a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. The structure includes:
Left Shoulder – A price decline followed by a minor recovery.
Head – A deeper price drop, marking the lowest point.
Right Shoulder – A higher low compared to the head, signaling to weaken bearish momentum.
Key Technical Levels:
Support Area (~$2,175): The price has bounced off this key level multiple times, reinforcing its strength.
Neckline (~$3,100 - $3,200): A breakout above this level would confirm the bullish pattern.
Target Projection: Based on the height of the pattern, a successful breakout could lead ETH to $4,000+.
Bullish Confirmation:
If ETH breaks and closes above $3,100-$3,200, it would confirm the breakout, leading to further upside.
Volume confirmation is crucial – a spike in buying pressure would strengthen the breakout signal.
Bearish Scenario:
If ETH fails to break the neckline, it could retest the support area at $2,400-$2,600 before another attempt.
A breakdown below the right shoulder ($2,400) would invalidate the bullish setup.
Conclusion:
Bullish Bias: The pattern suggests an upcoming rally if ETH surpasses the neckline.
Key Levels to Watch: $3,100 resistance and $2,600 support.
Next Target: If the breakout occurs, a move toward $4,000 is likely.
BTC.D Capitulation Liquidation candle. Bitcoin's price hovers around $97,000 on Wednesday, following a 3.5% drop the day before. David Sacks, President Trump’s crypto czar, has announced plans to assess a Bitcoin Reserve. Meanwhile, traders on the Bitcoin CME are adopting a cautious stance, advising investors to steer clear of leverage at all costs. As uncertainty and volatility rise in the wake of Trump’s supportive crypto regulations, the potential for a Bitcoin reserve is emerging, yet the market remains turbulent due to tariffs and broader economic challenges.
Additionally, Bitcoin is bracing for fluctuations as FTX prepares to start repaying creditors on February 18. The beleaguered exchange, which filed for bankruptcy in November 2022 with debts estimated at $11.2 billion, is set to disburse payouts that could reach up to $16.5 billion. To facilitate this, FTX is actively selling assets and investments in tech companies. This development is pivotal for those impacted by the FTX collapse, sparking significant interest within the cryptocurrency community.
In 2018 and 2019, the BTC.D chart faced rejections from the 60% resistance zone during the bearish years that followed the explosive bull run of 2017.
Now, we find ourselves in a different scenario, with a retest happening in a bull run year post-halvening. While it’s too early to declare the end of the rally, the usual indicators for a BTC bull peak have yet to signal a positive trend.
From a technical standpoint, BTC.D has the potential to climb to 63.84% and possibly reach as high as 72.5%. This development could spell great news for Bitcoin while casting a shadow over the altcoin market.
This shift might be driven by consistent demand from ETFs and institutional investors for Bitcoin, leaving altcoins in the dust until later in the year.
However, some speculators believe that the recent liquidations over the weekend may have drained enough leverage, allowing altcoins to begin their recovery and, at long last, outshine Bitcoin. We await the unfolding drama with eager anticipation.
ETH Long Setup: Catching the Rebound After a 51% DropEthereum has pulled back significantly, experiencing a sharp 51% decline from its recent high. This steep correction presents a solid opportunity to go long. Currently, ETH is sitting at a critical support level, making it an ideal entry point for a potential recovery.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: Market price after the 51% drop
• Target: $4,400
• Stop Loss: $2,200
• Risk-to-Reward: Favorable for swing traders looking to capitalize on a medium-term rebound.
Fundamental Catalysts:
• Regulatory Optimism: The US is adopting a constructive approach to crypto regulations, reducing uncertainty in the market.
• Global Adoption: Big moves like El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender signal broader crypto acceptance.
• Institutional Inflow: With the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF and traditional finance embracing blockchain, institutional demand is set to rise.
• Macroeconomic Boost: Fewer rate hikes from the Fed, coupled with inflation hedging narratives, create a bullish backdrop for digital assets.
ETH’s technical setup aligns perfectly with the current bullish fundamentals. This is more than just a technical bounce—it’s a chance to ride the next wave of crypto growth. Risk is managed with a tight SL, and the upside potential is compelling.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
BTC Moon Cycle chartI know I didn't post for a while, was busy with the TTR 2.0 build (its almost ready to launch) and my X updates
Here is the CRYPTOCAP:BTC Moon cycle chart.
Support is in mid 95k, then we should go up into the new moon or Feb 27-28th
Im very bullish into the new Moon cycle (after the full moon low) and I will be out from any longs by Mar 10th!!!
Mar 10-14th, mark it down, we are going down hard!!!
Im expecting a strong correction down to below 65k (my ideal target is 55 or 50k) by Apr-My low and a reversal back to new ATH my Sep 7th (all charts were posted on my X already)