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ETHBTC

BTC is down >10%; Is this a buy-the-dip moment?Just because something is cheap does not mean it is a good buy, and just because something is expensive does not mean it is a sound investment. This investment adage applies to Bitcoin (“BTC”) ever more so than now. Bitcoin prices dropped 11% over the past week, triggered by substantial BTC sales by the German government. Concerns loom about the forthcoming Mt. Gox repayments, which are likely to increase near term supply. Persistent downward pressure is anticipated as further sales are pending. Yet BTC ETFs are witnessing significant inflows, indicating that investors are capitalizing on lower prices. This paper explores a hypothetical spread trade involving short micro BTC futures and long micro-ETH futures, given the near term headwinds facing BTC and the tailwinds of ETF approval imminent for ETH. BTC DECLINES 11% DUE TO LARGE SALES BTC prices have plummeted by 11% since July 1st, breaching the critical USD 60,000 support level and 200-day moving average. This sharp decline was propelled by a series of negative factors: 1) German government liquidating its BTC holdings: The German government has been liquidating its BTC holdings which were seized by the German police earlier this year. The government has already liquidated 10,000 BTC (USD 550 million at current prices) since mid-June. Crucially, the German government still holds more than 42,000 BTC (USD 2.3 billion) which could have a major impact on markets if sold. The consistent outflows to exchanges in July suggests the impact could be felt in the near term. 2) Mt. Gox begins repayments: On Friday 5/July, Mt. Gox stated that it had started transferring BTC and BCH to its customers 10 years after the exchange was hacked. More than 47,000 BTC was moved out of the Mt. Gox cold wallets on 5/July, suggesting the repayments are ongoing. Given the size of the transfer, the impact could be substantial. While the repayments will take place in a staggered manner, most customers are expected to receive their BTC within the next six months. Aggregate repayments will total up to 140,000 BTC. 3) Large Long Liquidations: Due to the sharp market moves in the past week, BTC derivatives saw large liquidations for both long and short positions. However, the overall liquidations were much larger last week. BTC longs worth more than USD 210 million were liquidated on 4/July and 5/July. The large liquidations further exacerbated the decline. Large short liquidations over the past 12 hours suggest volatility persists in both directions. Source: CoinGlass 4) Fear Sentiment Dominates BTC: BTC’s fear and greed index has rapidly fallen to its lowest level in the past year. Over the past month, sentiment has shifted rapidly from extreme greed to fear. Heightened fear sentiment could impact the resilience of BTC holders. At the same time, periods of extreme fear can also represent buying opportunities. Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear and Greed Index Long-term BTC holders (HODLers) who have not moved their tokens in more than 1Y have been remarkably resilient so far. Although the balance from this cohort has declined 7% YTD, it has been due to GBTC outflows, the impact of which was absorbed by other ETFs such as IBIT and FBTC. As sentiment swings the other way given the current sharp decline, more holders could start to sell their BTC. 5) BTC ETFs saw huge inflows last week: Following a mixed June which saw outflows from BTC ETFs total USD 1 billion, ETFs are once more seeing inflows. Since 27/June, more than USD 200 million have flowed. The largest inflow was on Friday 5/July, when price fell sharply. This suggests ETF buyers are using the price corrections as an opportunity to buy more BTC. This presents a potential bullish driver for BTC if prices fall too low. ETH RELATIVELY RESILIENT AS ETF APPROVAL BECOMES IMMINENT Mint Finance covered the relative outperformance of ETH to BTC in a previous paper . Approval for ETH ETFs is imminent. Bloomberg analysts previously suggested that approval could come through in early July. However, due to delays and re-filings, the updated approval deadline according to Bloomberg analysts is currently 15/July. Recent re-filings with the SEC showed minimal changes in the applications suggesting the applications are close to their final form and should be ready to trade within next few weeks. ETH ETF approval will drive spot buying and support ETH price. This is likely to drive specific outperformance of ETH relative to BTC. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP BTC faces multiple near-term headwinds. However, a directional position may be inadvisable given the bargain buying for ETFs and the sizeable, short position liquidations as price recovered on 8/July. Volatility remains high which presents a risk to a directional short position. Instead, investors can opt for a spread trade consisting of a bullish view on ETH and a bearish view on BTC. The spread trade effectively balances out price movements by offsetting declines in one cryptocurrency with gains in another. This approach provides investors with exposure to the relative performance of BTC and ETH. The recent decline in price has led to a decline in the ETHBTC ratio offering a compelling entry point to benefit from the ETF approval while maintaining a bearish view on BTC. The following hypothetical trade setup combines a long position in 19 x METN2024 and a short position in 1 x MBTN2024. • Entry: 0.05295 • Target: 0.05750 • Stop Loss: 0.05050 • Reward to Risk: 1.75x Notably, this trade does not match notional exactly as the current BTC/ETH ratio is 18.85. Alternatively, CME offers Ether/Bitcoin Ratio (EBR) futures that enable investors to gain exposure to the ETH/BTC ratio through a single transaction and match notional exactly. Each contract of these futures corresponds to an exposure of USD 1,000,000 multiplied by the index value (approximately USD 52,280 at a ratio of 0.05228 as of May 31). These contracts enable investors to obtain relative value exposure on these closely correlated assets without taking a directional stance. The EBR contract is also substantially more margin efficient than individual futures on both legs. Liquidity on the EBR contract is lower than the MET and MBT contracts for now. Volumes in the EBR contract saw a strong uptick in June suggesting greater investor activity in these futures. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBTN2024Short
by mintdotfinance
Ethereum (ETH)After huge pumps in crypto market we will have a little correction Ethereum price today is $1.6k with a 24-hour trading volume of 14.4 billion dollars on June we had a crazy Volume for eth and whales buys the dip which is a very good sign for eth price in future Eth under 1k is a most buy and 1k-2k is a dip for eth, as you can see in weekly time frame eth trys to make a W pattern an bulls try to back at 1900$ 2000, 2500, 3500 and 4500$ are the most important resistance for Eth and huge opportunity for scalper traders
Long
by moonypto
6
Is ETHBTC Pair Turning Bullish?ETHBTC pair can be turning bullish, as we see strong rebound after a completed corrective decline by Elliott wave theory. We talked about ETHBTC pair back on May 14th, where we mentioned and highlighted the completion of an (A)-(B)-(C) corrective setback with the wedge pattern within wave 5 of (C). As you can see today on July 05, ETHBTC pair bounced from projected 0.045 support area, which can be signal that it’s turning back to bullish mode, especially if breaks back above 0.061 region. Regarding dominance in the Crypto market, ETHBTC chart can be one of the reasons that ALTcoin dominance may kick in soon, so new ALTseason could be around the corner.
Long
by ew-forecast
2
ETH DOMINANCE Ethereum dominance showed strength a few hours ago. This is a great sign for large cap altcoins as well as Ethereum. There is only a little time left when he will show his strength. It is important to be ready when the impulse comes. At some point, ethereum should jump by at least 50 to 100 percent. Also Btc.D dominance will show the peak of bitcoin and then the altcoin season begins. Currently, the price of bitcoin is above 69300 both daily and weekly. Which shows that the trend continues, but I must not ignore Ethereum
Long
by learnfromfailure
2
Example of how to effectively use auxiliary indicatorsHello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- The StochRSI < 80, StochRSI > 20, OBV, -100, +100, RSI < 70, RSI > 30 indicators included in the HA-MS indicator are indicators that express the formulas of each basic indicator by modifying them. These indicators can be intuitively confirmed by expressing each indicator on a price candle, and can be used as support and resistance points for detailed trading strategies. - (1M chart) The most frequently referenced RSI indicators have been added to be drawn on price candles as RSI < 70, RSI > 30 indicators. Therefore, if the price is maintained above the 3014.05 point, it can be interpreted that the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone. Therefore, the 3014.05 point corresponds to the support and resistance zone. - The +100, -100 indicators are indicators that express the CCI indicator. The CCI indicator interprets the -100 to +100 range as a sideways range based on the 0 point. If it rises above +100, it is interpreted that it has escaped the sideways range and formed an upward trend. If it falls below -100, it is interpreted that it has formed a downward trend. Therefore, if it rises above the 3762.29 point, it should be interpreted that it is highly likely to form an upward trend. Therefore, if it rises above the +100 indicator point, you can conduct a breakout trade. - If you understand the concept of the above indicators, I think you can create a trading strategy with just these indicators. - The HA-High indicator is formed at the 3321.30 point, so the most basic standard is the 3321.30 point. Therefore, you should set the 3321.30 point as the standard and use the support and resistance points of the above indicators to create a trading strategy that suits you. The trading strategy may vary depending on your investment period, investment amount, average purchase price, etc. Even so, the HA-High and HA-Low indicators can be the standard for the chart, so you should consider the location of these indicators. - (1W chart) It is currently continuing to rise within the rising channel. Therefore, the key is whether it can rise along the rising channel. - The 3265.0 point and the 3321.30 point are the HA-High indicator points of the 1W and 1M charts. Therefore, the area around the 3265.0-3321.30 section can be seen as the standard for trading. Therefore, if it falls below the 3265.0-3321.30 section, it is highly likely that it will fall further. However, the 3014.05 point is the RSI < 70 indicator point of the 1M chart, so if the price is maintained above 3014.05, it is likely that it will continue to rise in the long term. Therefore, if it falls below the 3265.0-3321.30 section, it is necessary to check whether there is support in the 3014.05-3136.41 section. - (1D chart) Currently, the HA-High indicator of the 1D chart is formed at 3787.59. Therefore, in order for a full-scale uptrend to begin, the price must be maintained above 3787.59. - The +100 indicator is formed at 3523.09. Therefore, in the short term, it is highly likely that an uptrend will be formed if it rises above 3523.09. If not, the movement is likely to continue in the sideways section of the CCI indicator. - As above, you should look at the charts in order of 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, interpret them comprehensively, and create and modify your trading strategy by considering your average purchase price or investment period. Again, among the indicators on this chart, the most basic indicators for trading are the HA-High and HA-Low indicators. To find out the basic trend, you can check the movement of the MS-Signal indicator. - Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture The real uptrend is expected to start after rising above 29K. The area expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future. We need to check if these points can be broken upward. We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
by readCrypto
1
ETHBTC Set for 3X Gain: Strong Support Levels & Bull Run InsightETHBTC is showing strong support at the 0.0477 to 0.045 level, presenting a significant opportunity for traders. This level could provide an excellent entry point, with the potential for substantial gains. If ETHBTC breaks below 0.046, the next confirmed support level is 0.0355, where there is an 80% chance of a bounce, especially with the upcoming bull run projected to extend until November or December 2025. ETHBTC is a crucial indicator for identifying alt season. If ETHBTC flip the 0.06 level, we could see a robust rally in altcoins. Historically, the targets for ETHBTC during a bull run have been a minimum of 0.09 and a maximum of 0.126 by late 2025. For more insightful analysis, follow us on TradingView to stay updated with our latest trading ideas.
Long
by Houseofcryptokings
Check for support in the 2nd sectionHello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (ETHUSDT 1M chart) The key is whether it can receive support near the Fibonacci ratio point of 0.618 (3548.07) and rise above the upper point of the HA-High indicator box on the 1M chart. If the price is maintained above the HA-High indicator, I think there is a high possibility of a full-fledged upward trend. Therefore, it is expected that a full-fledged upward trend will begin only when the price is maintained above the 3321.30 point, which is the HA-High indicator point on the 1M chart. If not, and it falls, you should check for support around 0.382 (2647.80). (1W chart) It has touched the psychological volume profile zone and is rising. The key is whether it can receive support in the 3503.68-3730.71 range and rise above 4093.92. If not, and it falls, you should check for support around 3025.27-3321.30. If the price maintains above 4093.92, it is expected to rise to around 4868.0. (1D chart) It should rise to the HA-High indicator box section (3570.0-4010.98) on the 1D chart. Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support around 3570.0 and rise above 3903.61-4010.98. If the price is maintained above 3903.61-4010.98, a full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin. The 3025.27-3321.30 section is the HA-High indicator section of the 1M and 1W charts, so it is an important section. Since the price broke above this important zone with a sharp increase, if the price holds above 3025.27-3321.30, it is expected to renew the latest previous high. --------------------------------------------- (1D chart) Please refer to the HA-Low and HA-High indicators used to initiate trading and the BW indicator to verify them. We need to check if we can receive support around the current secondary range, that is, the 3570.0-3730.71 range. If you were unable to buy around 2817.0-3025.27, I think it would be a good idea to check for support in the 3903.61-4093.92 range and proceed with buying. The reason is that the HA-High indicator was created and a high point was formed. Therefore, the HA-High indicator point at 3903.61 can become a resistance point. From a day trading perspective, if support is confirmed around 3570.0, you can buy and sell around 3903.61. Have a good time. thank you -------------------------------------------------- - The big picture The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K. This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points upward. Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched. #BTCUSD 1M If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
by readCrypto
ETHBTC. Should we look for buying opportunities?On the weekly time frame (TF), there has been a sideways movement since May 2021. The seller's vector 11-12 interacted with the lower boundary of the range at 0.049081 several times. After the first interaction in January 2024, the buyer performed well with a single weekly candle (January 8th), forming a buyer's zone (blue rectangle on the chart). A similar situation is happening now, with the weekly candle on May 20th also showing a good spread and volume, creating another buyer's zone (blue rectangle on the chart, with the upper boundary at 0.05206). Since the seller's vector has reached all its targets within the range, the current buyer's vector is 12-13. The potential target is 0.085621 (~50%), and it seems reasonable to look for buying opportunities. However, the question remains whether the buyer's activity will develop further or if the price will update the local minimum again (0.04473). It is reasonable to look for buying opportunities on the weekly time frame from the buyer's zone (upper edge – 0.05206), with the idea of realizing the buyer's vector 12-13. The first potential targets are 0.06117 and 0.06257, with an ambitious target of 0.085621. Let's examine the lower time frames to determine where else it is reasonable to look for buying opportunities. Daily Time Frame On the daily time frame, there was a seller's trend. The last seller's impulse started from the level 0.05249 and ended at the level 0.04473. Then, there was a buyer's impulse, and now the price is above 0.05249, indicating that the seller's trend has stopped. The key candle of the buyer's impulse (the highest volume in the impulse, marked as "KC" on the chart) is at the end of the impulse. Buying opportunities can be considered if the buyer defends the levels at 0.05332 (the key candle of the impulse) and 0.05249 (the price of the last seller's impulse started from), with the idea of initiating a long trend and breaking above 0.05744. It would be cool, during the seller's attack on the level 0.05249, the price moves into the buyer's zone on the weekly TF (0.05206 or below), and then the buyer brings the price back above 0.05249 and defends this level. If the price falls below 0.05249 and the seller defends this level, it is likely that the price will move towards the local minimum (0.04473). 4-Hour Time Frame The price has formed a sideways movement. The buyer's vector 6-7 has reached its targets. The current seller's vector 7-8 has a potential target of 0.05322 (see the 0.05322 level on the daily TF above). The lower boundary of the range is 0.0525, which coincides with the 0.05249 level on the daily TF. It makes sense to look for buying opportunities on the 4-hour TF if the buyer defends the levels at 0.05322 or 0.0525, based on the idea of the buyer's vector 8-9 within the range. Sales can also be considered from the seller's defense of the 0.05622 or 0.05744 levels, based on the idea of the realization of the 7-8 vector within the range.
by AlexeyWolf
ETH - 4H more correctionIn the 4-hour timeframe, Ethereum's recent upward movement was a classic pullback after failing to hold its previous support level. This pullback reached the resistance zone around $3,600, which acted as a significant barrier. Now, ETH is showing signs of weakening and is likely to continue its downward trajectory. Expect Ethereum to target the next support levels around $3,310 and possibly $3,110, as indicated in the chart. These zones are crucial as they represent potential areas where buyers might step in.
Short
by Sober_Trading
2
Ethereum Returning to the EtherEthereum lost an uptrend it has been in for >6.5 years back in July of this last year. That uptrend also forms the bottom of a rising wedge that has taken shape when drawing a trend from peak to peak over the years. Upon losing its uptrend, it briefly saw a pullback during Feb - March of this year, but then lost it again and has since bounced down from a re-test it did in May. It's BINANCE:ETHBTC pair also lost a 7.2 year uptrend back in March and has also since failed to get back above it upon re-test: Possible scenarios for new ATHs before down: It could drag out through July or later and re-test again, which might even give it a new / slightly higher ATH before starting the long haul down. Or, it could break back into the rising wedge and move near the top, around 10k as some have expected, and that could delay and mitigate its downside. Another look at ETH/BTC 2-Weekly and daily charts with chances to become bullish or bearish: 2-Weekly: Daily Chart zoom in on re-test of 7.2 year uptrend, where it formed a rising wedge and hit downside targets, so far:
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by dudebruhwhoa
Long ETH, Short BTC on Expected ETH ETF Approval SEC's unexpected nod for Ethereum Spot ETFs (“ETH ETFs”) through the approval of 19b-4 forms has ignited a fresh wave of excitement in crypto markets. This paper delves into the impact on ETH/BTC Ratio fuelled by this development. The ratio has been a laggard throughout the current bull run. ETHER ETF ADVANCES TOWARDS APPROVAL On 23rd May, the SEC unexpectedly approved the 19b-4 forms, permitting CBOE, Nasdaq, and NYSE to list ETH ETFs. This surprised participants who anticipated a rejection. Take note that this does not signify that spot ETH ETFs are approved for trading yet. The applications must still clear the next hurdle, which is the approval of the S-1 form. This process could potentially be drawn out over the next couple of months but there are encouraging signs. Last week, Blackrock updated its S-1 form for its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), suggesting that the issuers and SEC were working towards fine-tuning the details. The Block reported that other issuers were told to send in their updated S-1 filings by Friday 31/May. Additional rounds of revisions are expected before a final decision. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas opines that approval could come as soon as June. A key point of interest for ETH ETFs will be whether the ETH held in these instruments can be staked. Staking Ethereum generates 3.4% APR (Annual Percentage Rate) as of 3rd June. Staking is exposed to risk of losses through slashing. Yet, it makes Spot ETFs attractive to investors. ETH ETF WILL DRIVE SPOT DEMAND Like the spot Bitcoin ETFs, ETH ETFs will drive additional spot demand for the cryptocurrency. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have seen more than USD 13 billion of capital inflows . Spot ETFs represents new source of demand and in the month following its launch, inflows drove large price moves. ETH ETFs are unlikely to attract the same level of demand as Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows into ETH ETFs are expected to be a fraction of those into BTC ETFs, with ETH assets constituting about 10%-20% of BTC assets in various regions, according to comparisons of currently listed instruments. Source: Eric Balchunas on X Projecting this level of spot demand, ETH ETFs could witness inflows between USD 1.1 billion (10% of BTC inflows) to USD 2.2 billion (20% of BTC inflows) over the next three months. ETH HAS LAGGED IN THE CURRENT CRYPTO RALLY BTC has been the clear winner in the current crypto rally. BTC is the only large crypto to exceed its previous all-time-high until now. In terms of relative performance, other cryptocurrencies have displayed robust performance too. Other crypto-assets Solana, Dogecoin and Binance Coin have surged to outperform BTC over the last six months. ETH has been a noticeable laggard. ETH had been underperforming even BTC until 20th May. Following the rally after approval, ETH has just managed to catch up to BTC performance but still lags relative to smaller (and riskier) crypto assets SOL, DOGE, and BNB. To get a sense of relative performance, we can plot the ratios of these crypto assets with BTC. This chart makes ETH underperformance relative to BTC even clearer. This underperformance might suggest that investors have moved away from ETH. That risk when flipped could also present an opportunity for ETH to outperform BTC in the coming weeks. ETH/BTC ratio is a mean-reverting quantity and relative to the peaks seen during past cryptocurrency bull runs, the ratio is low. Notably, the ratio rallied sharply after BTC reached new all-time-high levels in the past. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Approval of ETH ETFs in the near term is likely to translate into spot buying, driving up prices. A hypothetical trade consisting of a long position in the ETH/BTC ratio will benefit as ETH outperforms BTC. Investors can execute a spread trade on the ETH/BTC ratio using CME Micro Bitcoin and CME Micro Ether futures. Each contract of Micro Bitcoin futures provide exposure to 0.1 Bitcoin and each contract of Micro Ether futures provide exposure to 0.1 Ether. Eighteen contracts of Micro Ether are required to balance notional value on both legs of the trade. • Entry: 0.0547 • Target: 0.0600 • Stop Loss: 0.0520 • Profit at Target: USD 655 • Loss at Stop: USD 336 • Reward/Risk: 1.95x Notably, this trade does not match notional exactly as the current BTC/ETH ratio is 18.28. Alternatively, CME offers Ether/Bitcoin Ratio (EBR) futures that enable investors to gain exposure to the ETH/BTC ratio through a single transaction and match notional exactly. Each contract of these futures corresponds to an exposure of USD 1,000,000 multiplied by the index value (approximately USD 54,810 at a ratio of 0.05481 as of May 31). These contracts enable investors to obtain relative value exposure on these closely correlated assets without taking a directional stance. The EBR contract is also substantially more margin efficient than individual futures on both legs (USD 6,800 vs USD 28,000 for the same notional value). However, investors should be aware that these newly introduced futures have poor liquidity compared to individual Ether and Bitcoin full-size and micro futures contracts. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!Short
by mintdotfinance
7