Bitcoin and Beyond: An Analysis of Crypto Market TrendsHello everyone. A few weeks ago, I shared a few successful ideas about Coinbase, Grayscale, and the possibility of an ETF being approved. I also shared several interesting plays that have been doing very well, so I would like to dig deeper into them and check their progress. This idea will be a comprehensive look at crypto's evolving landscape. An in-depth analysis of current trends, fundamentals, and data, where I will explain why I remain bullish on crypto and Bitcoin in particular. There is also a decent chance that an alt season has begun. We will explore why the future looks bright while examining any potential issues and going through the current price action. So pour yourself a nice drink, and let's get into it!
1) Coinbase has been doing incredibly well. Why? A few reasons... a) multiple ETFs have been filled and are waiting for approval by the SEC, most of which have Coinbase as their main exchange/partner. b) The SEC was expected to sue Coinbase, so it was a sell the rumor - buy the news event. Once the SEC sued Coinbase, the stock capitulated and bounced immediately. However, the SEC's case looks weak, and Coinbase could win. c) Most other exchanges in the US have been suffering, with Bittrex shutting down and BinanceUS potentially shutting down too. d) Coinbase has launched a derivatives platform both in the US and abroad and its own Layer 2 protocol. Therefore more potential profits will come to the exchange.
2) Microstrategy is also doing great. Like Coinbase, the stock went through a lot of FUD, and many thought it would be forced to sell some of its coins if Bitcoin's price fell below a certain level. Now this is all in the past. Microstrategy's business is booming, and they keep buying lots of bitcoins. Not only are they buying, but they even repaid their loan to Silvergate at a 30% discount. Coinbase also repaid part of its loans at a steep discount because interest rates are so much higher and crypto so much lower.
Both stocks fell more than 90% from their ATHs and went sideways for nearly 14 months. They both bottomed in May along with the Terra collapse and had a secondary low that was essentially an SFP, as they follow US tech companies as they were capitulating. Now both are also being heavily bid by players in the traditional space (TradFi), as these players don't have easy access to crypto until an ETF gets launched; hence they are looking for proxy trades. MSTR seems to be doing better as it is essentially a leveraged bet on Bitcoin due to the fact that it has taken massive loans to buy Bitcoin at low-interest rates and isn't exposed to altcoins like Coinbase is. Finally, MSTR's price partially filled the gap that opened in 2020 since the time it announced it bought Bitcoin.
3) GBTC's discount is closing. As I had said multiple times before, Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust would outperform Bitcoin. I had been saying that buying GBTC at a 40-50% discount is a good idea, and those that bought GBTC are now beating BTC by 40-50% and could gain another 30-40% as the discount closes even further. The main reason behind this idea was that the SEC would probably lose against Grayscale. The SEC hasn't been able to explain why it hasn't approved an ETF, and its case has many holes. The same holds for many of their actions and failures to protect retail investors. Approving an ETF before the elections would help them cleanse all their past mistakes.
The massive discount that GBTC had hurt millions of investors directly and indirectly, and the only way to properly restore balance would be to approve an ETF. Once Blackrock decided to step in, it was game over. Why? Because BlackRock has an incredible track record of having its ETFs approved (575-1). If one ETF is approved, all ETFs have to be approved, which means that, finally, GBTC will be converted to an ETF. GBTC could easily rally, fill the gap at 24, pause there for a while, and then continue higher.
4) BITO was the futures ETF the SEC approved in October 2021, and it was yet another awful product. It was horrible for investors, as it has underperformed Bitcoin by more than 30%. The only real usefulness of that ETF has been to help me trade Bitcoin better. How? Because of its gaps. The CME futures, the BITO ETF, and GBTC have been forming/creating special patterns which could give an edge to someone based on the types of gaps on the chart.
As BITO slowly becomes irrelevant, CME futures and all the spot ETFs will play a more important role in price action, so tracking their gaps could be a handy tool for those that actively trade. What BITO indicates at the moment is that Bitcoin could have another dip toward 28800 and then go higher because of the major gap it has lower. Overall, there are many more gaps to the upside than the downside; hence, I expect prices to go higher soon, as these gaps act like little magnets.
5) As the traditional market is closed tomorrow, it will be interesting to see what the crypto market does as it trades 24/7. The CME futures will probably trade tomorrow, as they've also been trading today. Usually, the market opens for a few hours on July 3rd and is closed on July 4th, but futures tend to be open pretty much on all holidays. Bitcoin is trading near its May-June 2022 local tops and looks super strong.
Based on my analysis, the most immediate targets are 35300 and 37500, as indicated by the CME gaps. However, I think that the fair value of Bitcoin is closer to 37-40k, and with an ETF, it could easily shoot up toward 50k. As seen in the spot chart, many FVGs are waiting to be filled to the upside, and it's unlikely that any will be filled to the downside.
The capitulation at 15.5k last November was quite intense, and the market has essentially formed a massive inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a target near 49-50k. The current uptrend is very clean and technically perfect. It first swept the Nov 2020 low that led to the big breakout, then tested 20k during the USDC-SVB crisis (bottomed right at the 2017 ATHs), and finally tested the 25k breakout zone during the SEC lawsuits. Currently testing the 30-31.5k resistance, and it will most likely eventually break above it. It also closed Q2 above 30k, which was a very strong close!
6) Finally, I want to talk broadly about Ethereum, Bitcoin's Dominance, and my view on crypto assets. Ethereum has filled its CME gap and paused there. It was normal for the price to dip slightly today in USD and BTC terms. Overall, ETHUSD isn't as clean as BTCUSD. I wouldn't say I like that it has too many FVGs (gaps/inefficiencies) open and so many double bottoms. Essentially there is much-untapped liquidity, which makes it look a bit unhealthy. However, ETHBTC seems to have bottomed. I waited months to see the FVG at 0.0608 filled, and once it did so, the market almost immediately bounced. It has now reclaimed support and looks fairly strong.
If ETHBTC has bottomed, then potentially, crypto broadly has bottomed vs BTC. Ethereum is the leader of the rest and is also in a powerful position. Bitcoin might lead the ETF race, but an Ethereum ETF will eventually emerge. So far, Ethereum has many advantages over Bitcoin, like fee burning, lower inflation, more adoption, and staking. As more and more investors stake, then there will be less selling pressure on the market. Ethereum could be seen as green tech by many investors, which will also give it an extra boost. What remains to be seen is whether the SEC will deem staking and Ethereum as securities, which means that an Ethereum ETF might take longer.
At the moment, many ALTBTC pairs look quite bullish and bottomed out. However, ETHBTC has gotten rejected at resistance, and Bitcoin's dominance remains in a strong uptrend. The current BTCD (BTC.D) pullback doesn't look sufficient to conclude whether we are in an alt season. So far, it's been positive that many crypto assets are dipping or rallying along with Bitcoin, as the worst for them to be dipping when BTC is rallying. In my opinion, there is a decent chance altcoins capitulated, as the selling from many bankrupt firms or crypto delistings has already occurred. For example selling from Voyager, Celsius, Bakkt, Revolut, and Robinhood are either priced in or has occurred. These customers have gotten or will get BTC, ETH, or USD back, which can convert into other crypto assets.
To start wrapping things up, I want to mention the many crucial events to look out for. a) The return of FTX, b) the legal court cases between the SEC and all the crypto firms, c) bankruptcies, and d) the distribution of BTC from Mt Gox and the US government.
The return of FTX would be very bullish for crypto and Bitcoin in particular, as FTX mostly has smaller coins and cash. The SEC will probably lose some cases against Ripple, Coinbase, and Grayscale, which will shape the future of crypto. Remember that a lot of the bearish news is already priced in to a large extent, and very few events can truly shake crypto (not Bitcoin). As these policies and bankruptcies have disproportionally hurt smaller crypto assets, they could be the ones that benefit the most once the tide turns.
Bitcoin investors and traders should be most aware that Mt Gox will return about 140k BTC and 500m in cash, and the US government has about 90k BTC to sell and 120k BTC to return to Bitfinex. GBTC has 635k BTC, which will come back to the market through the ETF conversion (so far, they've been locked out of the market). BlockOne has 164k BTC, which was raised during the ICO period and might eventually distribute to EOS holders. All these events might be short-term bearish for Bitcoin, but long term, we think they will sort out imbalances in the market. At the same time, these events will probably push capital and liquidity into altcoins, so rather than panicking and selling, it's better to look for opportunities in the rest of the crypto market.
In conclusion, this market will provide multiple opportunities to the bulls, even though it will be a bumpy ride. I don't want to say with certainty that the SEC will lose all its cases, as I think many crypto assets, if not the majority, are securities. However, the crypto space isn't going away, especially as multiple jurisdictions like the UAE, UK, Singapore, and Hong Kong have taken a good approach to crypto regulations. At the same time, I don't want to tell anyone to speculate too much on smaller crypto assets, as the pool of liquidity that is about to enter primarily into Bitcoin is much larger than anything that currently exists in crypto, which means that BTC could outperform crypto assets over the next 6-12 months.
Thanks a lot for reading, and I hope you learned a lot from my analysis. Good luck! :)
