Ether
ETHUSD Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022ETHUSD Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 14.27%, raising from 12.63% of last week , according to DVOL data
(BTC Volatility Index for Deribit)
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 68th percentile, while according to DVOL, we are on 40th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 9.92% movement
Bearish: 11.16% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 27.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 1350
BOT: 1050
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
55% probability we are going to touch previous low of 1130(already got hit)
30% probability we are going to touch previous high of 1300
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 93% of the weekly moving averages are in a short trend, and
a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 37% bearish stance
FTX Hacker now 36th largest holder of ETH EthereumFTX "hacker" has converted 25,000 ETH worth $30 million into Bitcoin , on-chain data reveals. Total ETH stolen is valued $288 Million.
So 3% sell-off for 10% of the stolen value.
Imagine if the hacker sells more!
On the other hand, Grayscale won’t share proof of reserves, citing ‘security concerns’.
Grayscale theoretically owns 3.3% of the Bitcoin market cap. LUNA owned only 80k BTC, while Grayscale owns 640k BTC.
MSTR MicroStrategy gets a liquidation call at $13500K for BTC.
Cryptocurrency lender Genesis was seeking an emergency loan of $1 billion from investors before Monday, Nov 21.
My Price Targets for ETH Ethereum are $1055 and $875.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Ethereum #ETH Long?Alright here is the thing, there are plenty items suggesting that ETH #ETH can potential break to the upside.
We are looking at the 1 HR chart here:
- Falling Wedge 1 worked great along with Falling Wedge 2.
- Do you see a Falling Wedge 3 forming with a potential upside?
The only contradicting item is that currently BTC #BTC as posted previously is shown signs of a break to the down side. When BTC breaks either directions others tend to follow as well.
What are your thoughts of ETH potential upside and BTC potential slide to the downside?
Also take a look at the Bullish Divergence shown.
TL:DR:
- Previous Falling Wedges worked out.
- 3rd Falling Wedge in the works?
- Bulling Divergence shown as well.
- If Long, take a look at the current BTC possibility for short posted before this.
ETHPERP - Weak resume shopping.After the test of the buyer at the price of 1168 there is no progress and volume, the price failed to break through the local maximum, which tells us about the possible further decline in the price or we can expect a retest of the buyer in the range of 1111-1133. On the chart there is a buy zone, from where we can see a resumption of buying, if the buyer does not show strength, the price will go even lower.
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P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and make yourself and your
your friends.
$20k Ethereum in Feb 2025.Hi everyone,
This is Ethereum's Monthly chart.
If Ethereum repeats the 2019-2021 Fractal , we should see:
The bottom of this bear market in Nov and maybe early Dec
The mini bull run in Q1 2023 (It should reach ~$3k at least)
The correction phase in Q2-Q4 2023 (We might see the Nov/Dec 2022 bottom again (less likely))
The beginning of the true bull run in Jan 2024.
The next bullish cycle top in Feb 2025 which is ~$20k.
A long way ahead of us.
Please hit the boost button if you agree and tell me what you think.
Thanks
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% ETH, 48% Cash.
* BOUNCE WATCH . BlockFi admitted to having significant exposure to FTX (and associated companies) and are considering filing for bankruptcy after the Founder/COO Flori Marquez announced that they had enough liquidity to remain fully operational on November 8th . Liquid Global, a Japanese exchange owned by FTX has paused withdrawals. SALT, a crypto lending firm, has also paused deposits/withdrawals in the wake of the FTX collapse. It's very hard to say how much of the meltdown has been priced in after such a drastic and impulsive drawdown, but it seems premature to think that the spillover from the FTX/Alameda collapse is over. US October PPI increased less than expected, fueling more theories that inflation is subsiding enough for the Fed to slow its pace of rate hikes. Donald Trump just announced he intends to run for US President again in 2024.
Cryptos, Long-Term US Treasuries, GBPUSD, EURUSD, Metals, Natural Gas and Equities are up. DXY, VIX, Equity Futures, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, HSI, NI225, Oil and Agriculture are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; US October Retail Sales at 830am EST 11/16; US October Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 11/17; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . *
Price is currently testing $1270 minor resistance for the sixth consecutive session. Volume remained High (moderate) in yesterday's session and is currently on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green; Price is currently testing the second largest VP supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1522, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 43 after bouncing off of the uptrend line from October 2018 (as support) just above 37 support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 33 after denying a bearish crossover at 31, the next resistance is at 47. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a soft trough at -46 minor support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 37 as Price attempts to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to break above $1270 minor resistance then it will likely retest the uptrend line from June 2022 at ~$1340 as resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest ~$1225 as support before potentially retesting $1k minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1225.
ETHEREUM (ETHUSD) - Bull trap - Time to test support.Hello everyone, ETH is starting to top out below key areas of resistance, highlighted many times in my previous analysis. I expect a retest of support today, but be careful with risk and leverage as there is always a chance of a small macro relief rally. I think the bottom is not in yet and the downside will continue.
Ethereum downside which I hate to predict :(Descending Triangle has formed and the price has broken below support
This makes the first target around $754.
Unfortunately, with the erratic markets with the domino effect of FTX, Alameda, Binance and Bitcoin following - this is causing a major ripple effect.
When this happens there is less confidence and more uncertainty with investors, which leads them.
1. Taking their money to more stable markets.
2. Withdrawing their funds all together
3. Depositing their funds in a hard wallet (USB) until all settles.
and Ethereum is no exception (despite it being my absolutely favourite crypto).
I'm medium term bearish but but long term bullish.
ETHUSDTPERP - The test looks successful.The buyer was tested at a price of 1168. From where we can see the sales absorption on the increasing volumes and the spread widening, this formation tells us that the strong hands at the moment are interested in the growth of the asset's price. Thus, for 21 days we can see the price of the second cryptocurrency at 2000 for one coin.
If you liked the idea, give it a like. That's the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and please yourself and your
your loved ones.
🤨 Ethereum (ETHUSD) - Short term support tetestIf you haven't seen my macro analysis calling for a $200-$300 bottom, then I recommend checking out the linked idea. In the meantime, price action calls for a test of support as shown in the chart image. If we break back above the resistance area shown then it could flip bullish, until then the bears are in control.
Etherium - On the chart we can see the buyer testAfter a successful distribution the momentum is approaching the final stage of development . For a successful test, our buyer must confirm its presence in the 1133-1188 range.
If you liked the idea, please like it. That's the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
Please read the previous idea for a detailed understanding.
Ethereum - Our price targets stay the sameDespite proving our assumptions about the impending drop wrong in late October (when we highlighted some similarities between Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies), we have not backtracked on our bearish calls. We stuck to our opinion that ETHUSD was attractive to short between 1500$ and 1600$ (which we noted already during the summer) and continued to reason that the rally was characteristic of one in the bear market.
Our words came true once again as the price of Ethereum came crashing with the rest of the market, and it made a low of 1 071.50$ yesterday. We continue to be bearish on ETHUSD and maintain our price targets of 1 000$ and 900$.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the weekly chart of ETHUSD and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate strong corrections of the downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Etherium - Further price declines are expected.After the sot on the chart saw an uptrust (ut) and test. Which signals that the asset will fall in price. At the level of support the buyer did not hold the price, after which the shedding began. At this period of time there is no support on the chart, most likely this is not the end of the movement.
If you liked the idea, please like it. That's the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
Ethereum ETH Crypto Market after the ElectionsMy forecast is that we will see a bearish outcome for the crypto market after the November 8th Elections, especially for Ethereum ETH, which is overvalued.
ETH/USDT short
Entry Range: $1600 - 1700
Take Profit 1: $1540
Take Profit 2: $1370
Take Profit 3: $1265
Stop Loss: $1950
#ETH starting to look like a bullish scenario could be unfolding#ETH
So we broke down on the most recent trend line, there was a pretty big divergence - technically we are looking like a longer term retest here. This is looking pretty bullish to set up a buy around $1370 tbh - naturally there is some big things going on in the market that could cause a much bigger drop, although stagger some entries I feel from about that region. The volume profile is showing not much demand between 1479 to 1364 which is making me feel it will sink to about that price region before seeing true support