ETH dropping to support at 200 DEMAJust a quick thought here...
Have been watching ETH action all day and it seems like on the one hour and four hour charts that ETH wants to drop down to find support and its 200 period average.
This is a short term short sell play, very risky, not financial advice.
Ethereum-bitcoin
🚀 ETH NEXT STOP - $3124 then THE MOON 🌜 GOOD MORNING TRADERS!
As you will note from my previous post two days ago, we are approaching the 50% retracement level from the May 2021 crash. Though this 50% level isn't technically a TA level, it is a very well known and respected retracement citing DOWS THEORY. If we are able to break this light resistance level at around $3124 then it would seem we are due for a major local jump on the road to the .618 retracement level around $3428.
"Looking left" on the chart you can see that historically it took a few attempts to break through this $3124 level, and was range bound for nearly two weeks prior to definitively legging up to the next range.
It should be of note that the RSI is beginning to look oversold, so as we may test levels above $3124, it wouldn't be shocking for there to be a correction down towards the $2850-3000 level before running back up. If it does this would be a great entry point while the RSI is reset and positive momentum build on the MACD.
Golden entry: $2800
Realistic entry: ~ $3k
1st target: $3124
2nd target: $3428
3rd target: $3860
We also look to be forming one of my favorite harmonics that I will update later this week if it continues to form.
PLEASE LIKE/FOLLOW IF YOU AGREE, and lets discuss what you see in this exciting retrace!
ETH , Short in midtermThe ETH is still falling down in its descending channel
But it does not seem to be able to break the Channel ceiling and downward trend this time as well
I think the price needs to be retest again at the 2000$ level.
Unless Bitcoin completely returns to Bullish , the whole scenario will change !
📊 #ETH ( Ethereum )
💹 Time Frame : Daily
👤 Saeid.Mahbob
📅 02.05.2022
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BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Ethereum...the BIG pictureOk it important to know this before hearing my analysis,. if you have followed me or read any of my analysis you probably would assume I am a bear.
Most of my time spent in the crypto domain (and in traditional finance) is spent on educating clients, friend, family and even strangers on the internet on technology (as I am a full on nerd and technologist + I had a career in software) ...
anyways...naturally price speculation comes up. Especially with crypto.
I will admit that I used to be a holder of crypto and of traditional public equity . (I famously bought Tesla at $150 and sold at $450)
So when I came to this dilemma of what to learn so that I could teach others I was experiencing very large swings as I was into crypto early and it was a large portion of my portfolio.
I sought out traders like @OptimoomFX and others because of experience, and no apparent bias to any domain or asset. This to me is logical and reasonable.
I think that having a bias towards an asset and asset class was causing me pain emotionally and in my pocket book.
I am firm in my belief that being a fan of an asset or asset class you invest hard earned $ into is the worst position you can be in as an investor or speculator,
As a rational/logical person I gravitated towards risk off strategies.
I go with the flow and swing trade because I don't like to lose money, but also because there is sound reason and logic behind it.
By not digging my feet in and choosing a side, I keep myself unbiased and de-risked. I study, I watch, I analyze, and then I teach when I feel my analysis is up to snuff. That being said I am every day still striving to learn more and do better.
I like risk-off strategies that have the most upside potential, So I no longer hold, I earn APR on stable coins and keep my cap ready for margin/leverage plays when a few others I trust and I agree,
TLDR: I used to be a holder, and now I speculate through contracts and margin plays.
SO ON TO ETHHER,
Really the chart says and shows it all. Since late 2021 Ethereum has:
Hit a new all time high (MAY 21 2021)
crashed 60%
come back up to hit a new all time high while creating for the most part higher lows.
crashed once more in early December not nearly as severe as May crash
and in the last 3 or so weeks has slow repeated the cycle or dipping and correcting.
SOME THINGS REALLY STAND OUT TO ME:
1. May crash was much much more steep and severe and had far more volume. It is well known now that the market was extremely greedy and leveraged to the gills.
2. When borrowing up to 10x and then having to close such position long or short and there are many doing it, well you get a catastrophe. 60% hurts bad, let me tell you. Can you imagine how bad it felt for those who were fully levered?
3. 4So this round we are seeing less volume, less open interest thus...less long liquidations, almost no short liquidations...yet...and I am not positive if there will be.
*Either way what we are seeing is a more healthy version of the market intra cycle like you see in the RSI index where I have highlighted.
**In the areas where volume over moving average (yellow area on my charts) and RSI are crossing.... well just follow the line up and see how the price is reacting. It's volatile. And markets need to correct both ways.
4. Markets have a nature just like humans have a nature, because we are literally from nature and we run the markets.
*It is not just these indicators and charts and metrics at play. We have human emotions, mostly fear and greed in this case.
The market is less greedy this time, they are actually more fearful right now and that is a provable metric. Check this link for the crypto fear and greed index:
alternative.me
TLDR:
>short term ETH has looked like crap.
>When I put it on 1 day and zoom out I see an asset with a lot of potential, that i think the future internet will be built on top of.
>I see an asset got cut 60% because of extreme greed, followed by a natural more recovery. (Less open interest at play ie. derivatives markets.
>the worst day since the May crash was Dec 4 2021 and if you look at the candle for that day it is clear that it was sold down hard and fast but did not come near former lows or resistance levels AND it was bought back nearly 30% from intra day low
> In fact as far as candles and wicks go, all wicks that have any relevance are on the sell side meaning that ETH has a ton of support and keeps setting new local lows except for recently
>It is clear to see that ETH is under bought and oversold when you look at far right bottom of this chart and the VMA is blending with the volume bars on the sell side.
>In other words ETH has been super cooled off and primed for a launch.
> As I said in the chart there still isnt a ton of evidence of health, however today is starting to look strong as long we don't have a sell off or short seller pounding,
>Either way ETH looks sound as a long term investment and if you a re comfortable with volatility then I would say it's probably the best long term investment in the cryptocurrency domain with over $500M market cap it is a serious contender for the title.
**THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL PLEASE BE CAREFUL WHEN TRADING THESES ARE RISKY GROWTH ASSETS**
Check some of my related ideas linked below.
ETH can go to 2k if patterns continue - Introducing the AMU theo
Hey everyone, it has been a while since i dedicated an entire analysis to ETH.
So lets take a look at the Daily which provides us with some good patterns and allows us to note some important Support and resistance levels.
First of all note the repeating bear flag pattern. We can note four of them clearly formed and we are now in what seems to be the fourth.
Introducing the "Aproximative measurement unit" - a unit that helps us identify potential future moves by looking at the past ones. In this case , how much did the price drop after exiting each bear flag. If we look closely we can establish that the first move set the tone more or less by giving us an approximative measurment unit. The following moves were two times the first move and of course we can project this unit on the future move of the price .
Market context lets us think bearish thoughts so i will start with the first scenario:
Bear scenario : Using the AMU(Approx measurement unit) we project the move to the downside and note first potential target at around 2k which is a known support and a second target at the $1600 level which is also known as an important level in ETH.
Bull scenario(Less likely): Using the AMU we hit the trendline and then we go test the Kumo. Given the curent market outlook the chances of this to happen are slim ....BUT need to be taken into consideration.
ETHUSDT UPDATE
ETH is testing the support of this ascending corrective trendline and has the potential of forming a new swing low here. With our expectancy of short term growth to the 40k supply zone on BTC we can expect ETH to follow and possibly take out the stops of short traders first before inducing bulls into the market and dumping back below.
SMC !! BASED ETHEREUM (ETHUSDT) 1H IMBALANCE FILL SCENARIO 1/2As you can see, ethereum created an institutional imbalance (IB) that it has to fill, if it doesn't complete the double top scenario:
It will therefore rise to 2.56k before dropping back down to its recent bottom at 2.32k and then taking its way down to 1.7k:
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BINANCE COIN - SELL ZONE. BUY ZONE.Binance Coin is shaping up very similar to all the other major coins such as Eth and Btc. We could be moving lower once more before we go in for the big buy.
The bigger picture is showing us an expanding flat correction and we're currently in the C wave.
SHORT Trade Idea:
- Watch for price to reject the fibonacci levels in our sell zone
- Enter with stops above the rejection
- Take profits around the 230-260 area
BUY Trade Idea:
- Watch for price to come to our buy zone
- Enter when you see bullish price action
- Stops below the lows
- Targets: 650, 880, actively manage the rest
Let us know your thoughts below!
DON'T IGNORE THIS ETHEREUM CHART!Hi everyone,
I figured it would be a good idea to share this find with the community. I'll explain below what I'm seeing:
RSI - Matches the same pattern as Ethereum during "consolidation" in 2016 before the euphoric 2017 bull cycle
MACD - Oversold levels not seen in years
Duration of Consolidation - As you can see, the duration of the phases circled in white both span about 90 (270 days)
Retracement - Both ranges circled in white had similar pullbacks of about +50%
Bull Market Support Band - Right before the start of a new bull phase in 2016, the PA trended below the BMSB before breaking out (we are currently at this point when comparing the two)
Obviously this isn't to be taken as FA, but it could be a very unique and rare opportunity to enter the market/add to your position as a bull/long term holder.
Let me know your thoughts!
Twitter @illusivetrades
Two similar scenarios in EthereumToday, we will look at the 2nd most important cryptocurrency in the world.
The logic I'm using here is: What are the characteristics of the current movement?
60% Decline / 250 days of drawdown / Kind of an ABC formation
After defining that, I changed the configuration to logarithmic to look for similar scenarios in the past, and I found 2 in 2016 and 2017. Both share similarities in terms of decline, duration, and shape. So if we are able to understand the transition on those two scenarios towards the beginning of new bullish movements, then we may be able to get ready to develop trades if everything is aligned with our filters.
My objective right now is to study those two and see if I see a clear pattern I can follow. This was a simple post that may be useful for those looking to create swing opportunities using historical data as a reference to understand WHAT we want to see.
Thanks for reading!
ALERT Ethereum Deathcross ApproachingEthereum is closely approaching the dreaded deathcross event, where the 50 day sma crosses under the 200 day sma. When this popular indicator lights up, we now the bears have been pushing price down hard in the previous weeks. The fact is though, if you're trading for more than a few weeks, you already know this! :_0 It's been a painful year so far for HODL'er's around the world, for sure.
On a positive note, ETH bulls have previously come out to support price and reverse momentum before or immediately as the moving averages begin to cross. Unlike LINKUSD, BTCUSD, and ADAUSD which are struggling to reclaim ground and trigger a Goldencross event, the bullish side of this indicator. eg, August 2021, November 2020, and multiple other times in 2020 before that.
If Ethereum fails to trade above the 200 day ema, it could be a signal of weakening support for Ethereum, and more generally could indicate we haven't found the bottom yet. A disaster for the market as a whole. Similar to many coins though, ETH has just pulled away from a nice W + retest pattern in the 4h charts or otherwise arguably a reverse head and shoulders. Either way, generally a bullish signal for day-traders looking for good opportunities to go LONG. A retest of the 3150-3200 levels should be expected in the coming days, once we find the resistance for the day. Decent candidates range for resistance is $3280-$3300, which align with VPVR and the lower market support band that currently acts resistance, since we started trading in bearish territory back at the start of the year.
FIB golden pocket is at 3050-$3100, which acted as significant support as we dropped through December, all the way through to this morning when we pushed off from it, up %5.5 at the time of writing.
$3450-$3500 will act as strong resistance, which we will need to overcome if we don't want to return back for a retest of $3000 before potentially heading much deeper into what is pretty clearly a bear-market environment.
If momentum continues, market makers will reclaim liquidity left behind at 3500, 3800, 4250 in the coming weeks. The pull back for over-margined LONG traders will have been painful, for sure. It will also have proven to be a excellent opportunities to accumulate ETH.
Don't get liquidated my friends! Make sure you have sell into strength, as prices rise so you can have your buy-limits set up and profit from the volatility, not lose your mind!
ETHEREUM FALLING WEDGE - HUGE POTENTIAL BOUNCE! ETH - ethereum had a really nice rally but as always there is a time to calm down and gain some strength before the new rally. We are approaching a really nice trend line - support that holded us for a really huge period of time! Will it hold again and give us huge gains?? I am so bullish on eth if we touch our support line - trend line ! Patience and buy the DIP! Patience is the 80% of Trading!!
CRYPTODROU
Happy Trading
ETH/USD Vital Support ZonesWe are looking at the 3 Day ETH/USD chart. ETH/USD has shown weakness after falling out of midterm ascending channel. Downside targets call for prices around the $2400.00ish area. $2,700.00 macro support level could be an area bulls attempt to defend. At least an area for a short term long scalp or close short term short positions. Further downside price targets at $2,000.00 and $1,750.00 as last line of defense for bull market continuation. This is not financial advice. Happy Trading.... Don't get rekt...
ETHEREUM FOLLOWING BITCOIN INTO A HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN ???As we can see bitcoin is forming a head and shoulder pattern. And we can also see that Ethereum is following a very similar pattern.
We are currently in a bull trend at the second shoulder base which will reverse at around 3400 to undergo a correction to complete the head and shoulder pattern.
The course of Ethereum could still go completely differently from my prediction.
"this is not an investment advice"
ETHBTC SCENARIO TREECOINBASE:ETHBTC
There are too many scenarios at the moment I know it looks a bit messy but if any of them start to play out trendlines and fib levels should play an important role in deciphering which way we break.
Which ever path ETH takes, there are interesting synergies happening in the chart, where long term trend lines are converging with short term trends as well as EMA and SMA.
I have given short term targets as well as some long term down side targets. If we look at the entire picture of ETHBTC we could form a classic cup and handle and still be bullish on the longer time frames. The interesting part is that the bottom of the handle could correct down to 0.43 to 0.5 fib levels and still validate the pattern. Which would put ETHBTC at 0.040. Considering this ginormous potential mid term downside, the answer to the question is ETH topping out around 0.1 against BTC might depend on how bullish BTC will be.
In this way it could shape into an ascending triangle as well. Which is a bullish pattern.
Consider this, BTC in the coming 2 3 months puts another ATH however starts dumping shortly after. During which point ETH is late to dump and thus reaches 0.1 BTC for a brief moment. When BTC takes its time patiently, ETH could retest those lows of 0.40 first before blasting out of the cup neckline and over 0.1 BTC.
Or on the flip side, BTC prints new ATH, decides to surprise everybody once again and doesn't dump a third time and pumps over 100k. Then ETHBTC would surely not fall below 0.55 lows, and depending on when BTC starts its next run, ETH might not put another low below even 0.75 BTC.
Its all a bit messy, but if you follow the chart as the days go by, the scenarios do start making sense.
Please comment your ideas, and check back how my previous scenario analysis played out