Ethereum’s 145-Days Cycle Calls for a Rally in DecemberSince the start of the year, Ethereum's (ETH) price has followed a 145-day low-to-low cycle that now calls for a rally in December. Historically, the Ethereum price has a clear seasonality, with a tendency to produce high median returns in December.
ETH 145-Days Cycle
This cycle shows ETH's tendency to bottom every 145 days or so. ETH's price has followed this cycle very closely as follows:
• On January 23, 2022, we had the first major low of the year.
• 145 days later, we had the second major low for the year in mid-June.
• On November 10, 2022, Ethereum printed another low, which is precisely 145 days from the previous low.
The last 145-days cycle low also coincided with the FTX-driven crash, making it more relevant.
We can distinguish an almost perfect symmetry between ETH's peaks and troughs, and the 145-days low-to-low cycle can also be observed as measured from high to high. There has been a 133-day high-to-high cycle since the start of the year.
This means that every 133 days, we can expect the ETH price to make a high as measured from the previous high. If we project the 133-day cycle from the most recent high (August 14), we can expect the next cyclical high to develop on December 25.
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Ethereum To $2200 But Then What? As the merge from proof of work to proof of stake gets closer for Ethereum there has been a bullish relief wave hitting the market. I do believe that Ethereum is leading the charge in this relief rally as the merge will have a major impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum on the weekly looks like it's on an up trend to hitting $2200, but be cautious because I do believe we're still in the early stages of a bear market. I could be wrong but as I've been saying we haven't been moving sideways for an extended period of time just yet and the market is still very precarious.
I do believe we will eventually revisit a $1000 Ethereum or lower again as we go deeper into the bear cycle. As of now I'm waiting until we turn red again to dollar cost average in. The whole game plan is to accumulate heavy as close to the bottom as possible. I like others believe we still have a ways to go before we have a true bottom. Take it with a grain of salt because I could be wrong.
Staking Rewards: The Best Hope for Crypto During the RecessionNews of record high inflation and the federal reserve's plan to increase interest rates this year has a lot of people worried that a recession (probably on a global scale) is coming this year. After over a decade of constant growth in the US stocks and real-estate markets, we're finally going to see the bubble pop. GDP is down, governments are broke, and
I would argue that the "craze" of the last few years in stocks, housing, and even NFTs were driven by low-interest rates that encourage people to speculate rather than save - the act of buying "useless" NFTs, in a way, makes "sense" when compared to the alternative - earning almost nothing on savings and CD accounts. (The crypto "crash" we see in the last few weeks is a result of "crypto-curious" money exiting the space - most of which run in parallel to the fiat markets as a whole.) As interest rates get higher and higher over the next few months, however, that script is likely going to get flipped on its head.
If the crypto industry adapts fast enough, they can take advantage of the fact that the banks are still dragging their feet in terms of offering better interest rates - staking rewards are currently outperforming the savings rates of most banks by a very wide margin and is a much easier sell to the average person out there just trying to protect their money. (The idea of buying NFTs of apes and rocks as your future nest-egg will start to sound more silly as time goes on, I think.)
In a way this marks the end of the speculative-NFT era for the crypto industry, and possibly the end of the dominance of the proof-of-work model itself. Prior to the big "crash" a few weeks ago, many proof-of-stake coins Tezos (XTZ), Chainlink (LINK), Cardano (ADA) saw blips of independent movement as the rest of the market continued to tumble. If this trend continues over time (since these projects are actually offering something of value to its users - interest and real returns) we may start to see lesser-known contenders in the space rising to the top of the charts. (Ethereum is currently in limbo right now, at least until they finally do their ETH2/Consensys/"merge" in August - they've taken outsized losses this week due to the come-downs of the NFT craze.)
As mentioned a few times before, Bitcoin may be in big trouble because the thing people are going to be looking for - interest rates - isn't something they're able to offer on any level, especially after the market goes into a downturn this year. All those years the mining community spent blocking money supply and block size upgrades may finally come back to bite them - the "flippening" may already be on its way. (And Ethereum too, if they fail to adapt to the new landscape - time will tell.)
Polygon/MATIC - Does it Live Up to the Hype?Did a quick vid on the coin with the latest hype, Polygon/MATIC. I get a lot of spam regarding new coins but after doing some research I came to the conclusion that it has something going for it. The short list:
- Has support from Marc Cuban
- Solves a real problem (high fees)
- Is already in use, has real users/developers
- Founders are immigrants (this is a plus)
- Professional branding with clear goals
- Potential for multiple exit strategies
- Is hiring (this is a plus)
ETHUSD an expected Cup & Handle Can Lead it to $2200Hi friends, hope you are well and welcome to the Ethereum.
A powerful breakout:
Previously I shared two major moves with you in 2020. One was the Ethereum coin found a weak Ichimoku bearish cloud resistance on the weekly chart and it was expected that this time the Ethereum will breakout this cloud with a powerful bullish divergence.
The second was the big Gartley move on the monthly chart and the priceline was entered in the potential reversal zone of this harmonic pattern.
Finally, the price action of Ethereum coin started a powerful bullish move and rallied from $131 to $1150.
Now the price action is moving above the Ichimoku bullish cloud, and the bullish cloud is moved up at $750.
A big Cup & Handle formation is expected to hit $2200:
On the long-term monthly chart, the price action has formed a very big soft round shape move and found a resistance at $1150. If the price action will be rejected from here then a rally to the downside can complete the Cup & Handle bullish reversal move. This bearish rally can be up to the half of the bottom to the resistance of the Cup, which is $550 approximately. Now if we take the measurement of the hight of the Cup from the resistance to support, and place it at the breakout point then the next target can be $2200 at least.
The EMAs on weekly char and the combination of indicators and oscillators:
If the formation of handle starts then we can expect that the priceline of Ethereum can test the exponential moving averaged 21 on weekly time period chart, that is at $550 at the time of writing. I am also using some additional indicators to get more confirmations. Here I have placed the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Stochastic and Momentum indicators. At the moment the Stochastic has given bear cross (sell signal) from the oversold zone, but we should wait for MACD and momentum indicators to turn bearish as well, then it can be a confirmation for the starting of correction rally that can complete the formation of the handle.
Conclusion:
If the price action of Ethereum will be rejected by $1150 resistance then it can form a big bullish reversal Cup & Handle that can lead the priceline to $2200 in coming days.
ETH-4h. Buyers are preparing to update the historic high!ETH investors received a nice gift over the weekend. Raising the price by almost 60% , buyers easily broke the critical range, which we wrote about in the previous idea - $800-840 .
Having set a new local high of $1162 , buyers felt resistance in the range of $1123-1156. In the 15-minute timeframe, you can clearly see how the volumes started to increase in this range and the sellers easily turned the price.
Thus, the ETH price went beyond the growth channel and is preparing for the main sale - the $1260-1350 range test . Breaking this range, ETH will update its historic high.
The critical point for this growth scenario is the $840 mark . After breaking it, sellers will quickly lower the price to $750.
our ETHBTC idea:
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ETH-6h. Buyers are ready to test $ 800-840.BTC's local weakness, after setting a new historical high, gave ETH buyers a chance to come out of the shadows.
On December 27, during the two hours of active sales of BTC at highs showed that many people want to keep the price of BTC. During the stoppage of growth in the BTC market, ETH buyers raised the price by 10% in 3 hours. The initiative of buyers continues to remain with buyers. This is how our global idea ends .
Buyers managed to go beyond the wedge. The local critical point for continued growth to the $800-840 range is the $700 mark . Below it, sellers will return ETH to the consolidation wedge and try to test the $620-630 range .
Therefore, we expect the result of the fight for the $700 mark to enter the risk-free entry into the position.
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We create both short-term ideas (for a local understanding of the market situation) and medium-term forecasts of price movements.
Subscribe to us and get daily concise analytics!
ETH 1D The rocket "information fuel" endsSilver of the crypto market - ETH decided to keep up and follow BTC.
But it seems to us that the ETH high in the near future will be fixed in the zone $600-612.
The level is as high as $780 and it is too early to think about it.
Most likely, the zero phase of ETH 2.0 will not start on time , because now only 240 thousand ETH is blocked, and the condition for launching was to delegate 500 thousand ETH by 11/24/2020.
This news is definitely not positive and may push the price down.
The first strong level from below is $400.
Bastion of protection for a strong buyer in the last quarter is in the zone: - $320-335.
Don't let FOMO consume you, trade with stops and take profits in time when the market gives!
ETH/USD potential reversalGoooood morning traders
Ethereum is possibly shaping up for some buying activity around the $190-180 level.
If you move down to the shorter TF you can see that bearish momentum is slowing down and we can currently see a 5 drive pattern in the making which would end right in the level I spoke of.
As always, keep the risk managed!
Cheers :D