ETHUSD ETH still in downtrend channel. Small correction continued to resistance line, than we fall down to support line and going to supply zone near 161.8 Fibonacci.
Ethereumshort
ETH-USD on the road to $400After the breakout of the double support, static at $600 and dynamic with the 200-day Simple Moving Average, ETH-USD is heading toward the next important support at $400. Today high volume, at 10am (GMT) 151K, the 10-day moving average is 159K and yesterday's volume was 141K.
Trade ETH like a boss, from the guy who called the H&S 1st.Chart update. Position: Very Bearish with a chance of bounces
Technicals. Day and Weekly Chart.
1. RSI is in negative territory
2. MACD looking vicious to the downside.
3. Breaking lows.
It's clear we are in a bear market. No question at this point. We want to look for signs of a reversal, but there are none and we will continue looking. With all of that down pressure, What's a trader to do? Profit, of course! There are a lot of ways you can do it, the methodology I will be going over in this post is the Martingale Strategy and how to play the bounces as we move up. The reason I like this is because I am not perfect and I can't watch the markets 24/7. Everyone has things they need to do during the day and you also need sleep. The martingale technique involves looking at what you think the highest probability move is for a bounce and then entering in accordingly and playing the bounces. more importantly if you are wrong, you have points in place and plenty of room to be wrong. You have options, which is important. Lets see what BTC -4.29% is telling us here.
We know we are moving down. But how far down can we go? At this it's hitting it's double bottom at this 600 area. It would seem that a bounce is in the cards, but it's hard to say. what if it blows through that support point, and completes the ABCD pattern I have outlined, what do you do? For me, I implement a martingale strategy and I would do something like this:
ETH BUY @ 600 area: 10% of portfolio -This trade is active
ETH BUY @ 500 area: 20% of portfolio
ETH BUY @ 400 area: 40% of portfolio
Where's the other 30% you ask? Well, what if it blows through this 400 area and shoves to 250-300 area? This is a low possibility (IMO) and while a bounce would be very warranted before a push to the 300 area, personally, I like having a backup plan and options. If ETH looks like its going to bottom at 400 I can always enter in or sit on the sidelines. The key is having options. There is a lot of ways you can weight your martingale positions depending on where you think the bounces will happen. Right now I have an entry in at $620. Do I care that I am losing like I normally would be if I went all in? Hardly. In fact, I want it to go down to fill my large orders. If all my orders get filled down to 420, i will have an average buy price of 472 to play the upside, and some reserves. If it moves to the upside, great! i get to profit there before it resumes down. Right now i am targetting this 680 area for a bounce
Lot of ways you can play it, I outlined some of the possibilities I am looking at. Key is to not stress about your trades. Make sure you read up on martingale strategies. You might not make as much using the martingale, but you will lose less if done correctly. Part of trading is controlling your emotions and this strategy allows you to do that. ESPECIALLY in bear markets!
Happy Trading,
-Sherem
calling the top -
Calling the H&S -
From my identified H&S, the break. We are going down more!! ETHThe thing to realize here is we are in a bear market. There are few reasons to say that we are at the bottom at this point.
Technically here are some major bearish indicators on the daily chart:
1. RSI is negative and no signs of divergence or bottoming
2. Overall down trend.
3. MACD has been turned down and staying negative
On the smaller time frames, things are starting to fall in line which means we will get a further push to the down side. As i am writing this, ETH is breaking this short term trend line, which would indicate a fall to at least 660 area.
At this point, I will be playing any bounces as they move down. I would look for a minor bounce at these recent lows at 660 and serious support at the 600-620 area. I will not be putting buys in at 660 as I feel the bounce off of there will be minimal. I will be looking to put buys in just above 610 and in the 600-620 area.
I have outlined what I think is the highest probability move at this point. As always, MAKE SURE YOU MARTINGALE your buys. If this thing starts running you want to be able to have options to buy in lower. Read up on the strategy if you have not already. We already made some scalps while this thing has been moving down.
Don't stress, don't use leverage and pick your points!!
-Sherem
ETHUSD bears in charge: Short tf (4hr) analysisFor those interested in my earlier post concerning EthereumUSD in a bear channel and projections, the post can be found here:
The chart above shows an Elliott wave analysis for EthereumUSD. Price close of $672.10 on the 4hr tf has been identified as a possible Minute wave ((i)) position. It is possible that minute wave ((ii)) is not yet complete which is why I have put a question mark next to it. The implication of the above is that once minute wave ((ii)) is complete, ETHUSD should resume selling off.
Target for the sell off could be a projection of minute wave ((iii)) = 161.8% minute wave ((i)). However I have not calculated this because it is possible that minute wave ((ii)) is not yet complete.
POI = Point of invalidation at which the analysis requires revision
Who called the ETH top and H&S pattern?!? Me. Where now?!Ether has confirmed the head and shoulder and broke the neck line. A push down to 600 seems to be just a matter of time. The real question is whether or not this ABCD pattern is going to hold true. At this point, I think it is but I don't have a crystal ball so we will see. Besides the technical aspects of ether itself going to 400, if we look at the correlation with how it's been going down with BTC, it seems that it's not out of the cards at all if BTC pushes down to 6k which also seems very likely.
1st martingale is active at just above this 700 level. I have buys stacked down to 400 in case of a large push down. I will be looking for a bounce up from this 600 level to get out of these initial positions at 620 and 700 for continuation to the downside.
I outlined some of the levels and possibilities that we could see here going forward.
Trade safe everyone.
-Sherem
My calls:
Identifying the top -
identifying the H&S -
ETHEREUM (correction is continue)Hello Traders!
Very uncertain, unpredictable & hard to understand wave structure.
There are no less than 3 variants of price directions. Sure, the phase of correction is still continue.
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ETH USD - BEARTHEREUM!?Things are not looking the best for ETH USD in the short term. This is not a long term projection, but more of a short term hypothetical with increased probability. This is a hypothetical I'm willing to put some money on.
On the 4hr chart you can see that ETH has broken below the neckline of a (confirmed?) head and shoulders pattern. The volume on the breakout wasn't super convincing, but, looking at the hourly chart you can see that price has come back up to test the bottom of the neckline and met resistance. Neckline support is now neckline resistance. It is important to keep in mind that the price of bitcoin can quickly impact the price of ethereum, so a close back above the neckline will invalidate this pattern.
The blue horizontal dashed lines are targets and potential supports that will need to be broken on the way down. If you take a look at my recent Ethereum Classic Analysis, you will see that the price dropped almost precisely to my targets, where they found some resistance and consolidated for a few hours before breaking through to the next level. I was the only one calling BEAR on ETC when everyone else was shouting "TO THE MOON!". I got it right and plan to do more of that in the near future for you guys so please comment, like, follow, and so on. (I'm still in that trade btw and I think there's some more money to be made so check it out!)
Entry - $784 (Stop Loss - $810)
Targets -
773.86 (I will not be booking any profits here because I live on the edge)
724.63
After $724.63 there doesn't seem to be much support / resistance so a drop down to the next two targets could be fairly rapid.
654.08
598.79 (Head and Shoulders Target)
As always, this is my research and you should not make trades based on it. I share with you guys for educational purposes only and also to remain open to constructive criticism from other traders. Don't like what I have to say or disagree with my analysis? Tell me why! Maybe you're seeing something I'm missing.
Agree with my analysis or seeing something similar? Like, comment or follow.
Short ETH/BTC - H&S pattern completion with bearish TK crossShort ETH/BTC on the daily timeframe. Head and shoulders pattern completing as price reaches the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud, along with bearish TK cross. Wait for completion of pattern and price to drop through the bottom of the cloud to short - targets around 0.031.
Bitcoin bulls down Ethereum -A story of the bears!BITTREX:ETHBTC
A bitcoin appreciation over ethereum story with formation of a trend based bullish ABCD with CD leg under formation..
A short opportunity with 20% bagging...
Etherium target reached perfectly, prepare for another reversal!Etherium has dropped perfectly to our major support previously. We now forecast it to make a recovery to 910 resistance where another reaction could occur (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance momentum). Our major support is at 781 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 96% where a corresponding reaction could occur.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Warning signals for Ethereum possible sell off (4hr tf analysis)You can see the original post I made for Ethereum here:
Price action in Ethereum appears to be trapped in a channel ever since it made its high of ~$1424.00 on Jan. 13,2018.
Ethereum bullish price swing from the bottom of the channel at ~$569.49 should have tested the top of the channel at ~$1027.01, but failed to do so. This is a sign of weakness by the bulls. Instead, Ethereum turned back down to break Support 1. The top range of Support 2 was successfully tested at ~ $786.82.
A break below the bottom range of Support 2 at ~ $756.01 will confirm further weakness and could trigger a sell off in Ethereum to about $387.
The bottom of the channel as drawn shows a maximum target for the sell off to be around $321. However, it is also possible to start to see profit taking into the last 10% or 20% of the bottom of a channel so it all depends on the risk/reward ratio that is being used in the trade.
The safest areas to buy Ethereum that provide a great risk/reward ratio are :
(1) Going long ONLY after a clear breakout above the ~$977.43. A vertical projection of the width of the channel above the breakout point gives a price target of ~$1721.
(2) Wait to see if Support 2 is broken and to buy at the bottom 10% or 20% of the current channel. Somewhere in the low $330 and $360 should be monitored for possible areas to start to consider buying Ethereum should it sell off.
Selling screnario
The best bearish scenario for now would be to see if Support 2 is broken. If it is, sell the break below the bottom range of Support 2 at ~$756.01 and a stop loss can be placed just above the top range of Support 2 at ~$786.82. Doing this would also easily give a risk/reward ratio of greater than 3:1
Ethereum making a pullback to resistance, watch for reaction!Ethereum is starting to make a pullback to our breakout level. This is usually a sign of bigger players pushing price back up to get in at a good entry. Our 1st major resistance is at 910.21 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and another reaction off this level could push price all the way down to 781 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
RSI (55) has broken below our 46% support-turned-resistance line signaling that we’re starting to see a bearish move.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Etherium dropping perfectly with good downside potential!
Etherium has started to drop perfectly after breaking our ascending support line as forecasted. Our 1st major resistance is at 910.21 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and a further drop could occur to push price all the way down to 781 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
RSI (55) has broken below our 46% support-turned-resistance line signaling that we’re starting to see a bearish move.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Ethereum approaching major resistance and getting squeezed!Ethereum is approaching major resistance at 997.75 (Multiple fibonacci retracements, fibonacci extensions, horizontal overlap resistance).
We can also see an ascending support line squeeze price against the 997.75 ceiling signalling that a major break in either direction could be expected.
If price breaks the ascending support line, our next major levels of support would be 907.45 and 778.62.
Ethereum right on major resistance,prepare for a potential drop!Ethereum is now testing our 1st resistance at 784 (multiple Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and a strong reaction could occur at this level to drive prices down to at least 564 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 96% where a corresponding reaction could occur.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Ethereum has broken major support, could lead to a big drop!Ethereum has broken major support at 756 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish price action) and a strong drop could occur from this level towards 538 support (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
RSI (34) sees an intermediate descending resistance line provide downside pressure on Ethereum.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Ethereum Outlook Contains Bearish Sentiment with Advanced CountEthereum to Bitcoin pairing illustrates long-term bearish sentiment after completing a perfect Elliot Wave count that falls into the Basic Principals of the 3rd and 5th waves each containing an advanced count of sub-waves.
Typical ABC correction is impending through the distribution phase of Wyckoff Theory with mark-down.
Buy-in zone within the 50% retracement level and the .618 - .65 golden ratio of Fibonacci.
This is a long-term correction over the course of two months.
Ethereum has broken major support! Keep an eye out on this tradeEthereum has broken major support-turned-resistance at 995 triggering a bearish exit. Our 1st resistance is at 995 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, breakout level) where a strong drop could occur from pushing price all the way down to 769. We have to be careful about 931 support level as price has bounced off that area previously and it currently serves as intermediate support.
RSI (55) is seeing pullback resistance to our ascending support-turned-resistance line.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Ethereum approaching major resistance, watch for reversal!Ethereum is approaching major resistance at 1144 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, pullback resistance) and a strong reaction could occur at this level to drive price down to 927 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support). Do be aware that we’re seeing intermediate support at 1015.
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 98% where a corresponding reaction could occur.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Ethereum approaching major support, watch for break of key level
Ethereum is approaching our major support level at 995 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and a clean break of this level could open a potential drop to 769 major support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). We have to be careful of intermediate support at 931 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
RSI (34) has made a bearish exit of our ascending support-turned-resistance line signaling that we’re likely to see massive bearish pressure.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Ethereum right on major support, watch for a potential bounce!Ethereum has dipped to our first major support nicely as expected. Support is at 1162 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where a further rise could occur from to push price up towards 1282 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance, elliott wave structure).
RSI (34) is seeing ascending support hold up price really well in this bullish run.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Ethereum has made a bullish exit,watch for more bullish momentumEthereum has made a bullish exit of our long term descending resistance-turned-support line triggering more bullish momentum. We’re seeing intermediate ascending support holding it up really nicely too. Our major support is at 1008 where a further bounce could occur towards 1164 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
RSI (34) has made a bullish exit of its long term descending resistance-turned-support line too signaling that we could be seeing much more bullish momentum.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
